(AU) We're Facing A Climate Crisis But There Is Good News

Sydney Morning Herald - Mark Howden and Carolyn Hendriks

Mark Howden is director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University and a vice chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Carolyn Hendriks is an associate professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy at ANU.

The ferocity, reach and duration of fires that have devastated Australian communities, bush and rural landscapes have caught many of us off guard.
If this kind of disruption is happening at 1 degree Celsius of warming, it’s hard to imagine what we’re in store for at 3 to 5 degrees Celsius, which is what some research is projecting by the end of the century unless we drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
There’s been much commentary about the fact that we’re in the midst of a climate emergency.
But the situation is actually much more serious, more akin to a crisis than an emergency.
An emergency is an unexpected situation requiring immediate, short-term action. But the situation we find ourselves in has been predicted by scientists for decades.


Ian Chappell speaks out on climate change effect on sports.

Scientific analysis that rising greenhouse gas emissions will result in global warming dates back to the 1890s and there’s been scientific consensus since the 1990s. Unfortunately, even with rapid and comprehensive emission reduction, the ongoing impacts of this warming and the need for informed and just adaptation responses will last for centuries, hardly a short-term situation.
By contrast, a crisis is a time of intense difficulty or danger when important decisions need to be made. It is increasingly clear to most Australians that we have well and truly reached this point. We now have a narrow and shrinking window in which to act to avoid the worst- case scenarios. Many of the solutions we need are at our fingertips. They are available, affordable and scalable, but they generally need a supportive policy environment to incentivise their adoption. But we don’t have all the solutions we need yet, requiring investment in research and development. The sooner we start, the cheaper and easier the transition to a low-emission and climate-adapted Australia will be.
Last year was Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, with the record for Australia’s hottest day broken and then broken again the next day. It was also the second hottest year globally, with nine of the 10 hottest years on record occurring since 2005. We have seen fires in parts of Australia that haven’t historically experienced them, extreme flooding in other parts of the country, possibly our worst drought ever – the list of extremes goes on.
In a constantly changing environment such as this, there’s no such thing as a "new normal". We have to be prepared for conditions to change in unexpected ways on an ongoing basis. This means we have to invest in the knowledge, technologies, governance systems and social networks that allow us to adapt to both the negatives and positives of future climate changes. And importantly, we need to ensure that the decisions we make today don’t inhibit future adaptation options that will become necessary as the climate becomes more extreme.

The ferocity of this fire season has caught many Australians off guard. Credit: Nick Moir

The good news is that we can avoid the worst-case scenarios if we act urgently. By setting and implementing a net zero emissions target for the year 2050 we can help meet the aspirational Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. In doing so we will help avoid the huge costs of future climate changes.
To achieve this will require a massive technical and societal transformation. The failure of governments in Australia to lead reforms in this direction has led to frustration and hopelessness among some parts of the public.
Today, 500 people will gather in Canberra for the annual ANU Climate Update. This event will feature experts on climate science, disaster relief, health, social psychology and community engagement bringing together policy makers, government agencies, industry, students, academics and  members of the community. As well as focusing on how our climate changed in 2019, speakers will also discuss how we can respond as a community.
Amid the doom and gloom of all the climate predictions there are pockets of remarkable societal innovation and resilience. In communities throughout Australia and around the world we see the formation of new networks and alliances, such as Farmers for Climate Action. Lesser known are innovative grassroots initiatives or "doing publics", where > citizens self-organise to practically address a particular climate change challenge. For example, they establish a community energy farm, create a low-emissions food cooperative, assemble care packages for victims of climate disasters, or they rescue and nurse burnt wildlife.
Some people may worry that these community initiatives are too small-scale to push along the massive transitions that climate reform requires. But this would be to miss their broader value: they empower everyday people to act and create practical change on an issue that leaves many feeling utterly helpless.
These positive examples offer important lessons in how to respond collectively, practically and nimbly to climate challenges. Any government serious about working with communities on climate change needs to find constructive ways to facilitate and empower these community champions.
We have a fundamental choice to make as a society on this issue. Australia can emerge as a global leader on this challenge. It can step forward with strong emissions targets in global climate negotiations, it can develop new low-emission industries and it can harness the innovative capacity of engaged communities. Collectively Australians can demonstrate to the world that it is possible to adapt effectively to climate change in ways that boost economic and societal outcomes.
Or the alternative, based on business as usual, is to relive even more extreme summers than the hot red summer that we’ve just experienced. This is a scenario that looks less and less appealing and more and more costly.

Links

• ANU Climate Update 2020
• Australia will take new emissions reduction target to Glasgow climate summit
• This Is Not A Climate Emergency. It’s Much More Serious
• Australia will take new emissions reduction target to Glasgow climate summit
• Beyond tipping points: fire and the changing face of planet Earth
• Antarctica logs hottest temperature on record with a reading of 18.3°C
• Julie Bishop: Coalition should lead world on climate despite 'missteps' on bushfires
• Unis are key to meeting our climate change challenge
• Controversial commentator Bjorn Lomborg's bushfire claim debunked
• Climate, malnutrition must have a place in trade talks
• Scientists sign open letter to Australian Government urging action on climate change
• Our Future: A new electricity grid for a new climate era
• Tackling climate change in a ‘post-truth’ world