Climate Change: What Happens After The Paris Conference?

GRATTAN Institute


Climate Change: What Happens After The Paris Conference?

The Australian Government’s emissions reduction target will join those of the international community in Paris in December. It is likely that the sum total of these contributions will not be consistent with the internationally agreed objective of keeping the average global temperature increase to less than two degrees Celsius. How will this play out in Paris and what does the target imply for the energy sector? Join Tom Arup from The Age as he discusses this issue with David Karoly, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Melbourne and Member of the Climate Change Authority, Anthea Harris, previously CEO of the Authority and now occupying a senior role in the Victorian Government and Tony Wood from Grattan Institute.

Moderator

• Tom Arup is the environment editor for The Age. 

Speakers

• Tony Wood has been Energy Program Director at Grattan since 2011 after 14 years working at Origin Energy in senior executive roles. From 2009 to 2014 he was also Program Director of Clean Energy Projects at the Clinton Foundation, advising governments in the Asia-Pacific region on effective deployment of large-scale, low-emission energy technologies. In 2008, he was seconded to provide an industry perspective to the first Garnaut climate change review.
• Anthea Harris is Lead Deputy Secretary, Strategy and Planning at the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources.  Formerly Chief Executive Officer of the Climate Change Authority, Anthea is an experienced senior executive with a strong record of leading the collaborative development and delivery of strategic policy for both State and Federal Governments.  Anthea has previously held senior roles within the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, led the Secretariat for the National Emissions Trading Taskforce and held positions with the Victorian Department of Premier and Cabinet and at the Productivity Commission.
• David Karoly is Professor of Atmospheric Science in the School of Earth Sciences and the A.R.C. Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science at the University of Melbourne. He is an internationally recognised expert on climate change and climate variability and was heavily involved in the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  for more than two decades. David is a member of the Climate Change Authority, which provides advice to the Australian government on responding to climate change, including targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. He is also a member of  the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. Recently, he was awarded the 2015 Royal Society of Victoria Medal for Scientific Excellence in Earth Sciences.

Register now

• Date: Tuesday 13 October 2015
• Time: 6:00-7:30pm
• Location: State Library of Victoria, Village Roadshow Theatrette, 179 L Trobe St, Melbourne

PM Malcolm Turnbull Has Lost His Courage On Climate Change, Says Bernie Fraser

Fairfax - Nicole Hasham



Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's "courage has deserted him" on climate action, respected former government adviser Bernie Fraser says, predicting the federal Coalition's policies will fail to meet even modest targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The criticism comes as Senator David Leyonhjelm signalled a crossbench revolt if the Coalition, whose attitude to renewable energy has become more favourable since the leadership change, reneges on a move to ban government investment in wind and household solar.
Mr Fraser, an ex-Treasury head and former Reserve Bank governor, resigned as chairman of the government's Climate Change Authority this month, two years before his tenure was due to end.

Bernie Fraser resigned this month as head of the Climate Change Authority. Photo: Josh Robenstone

Believed to have had a fractious relationship with the Abbott government, he said on Tuesday that Mr Turnbull's climate action rhetoric was disappointing.
"He is just sticking with the status quo ... It's a pity his courage deserted him," Mr Fraser said, adding the party's hardliners were "causing [Mr Turnbull] to back away from what was a pretty strong position earlier on".
Mr Turnbull assured Liberal conservatives before the leadership ballot that he would toe the party line on climate change action. He has since defended the government's Direct Action policy, and its greenhouse gas reduction target of 26 to 28 per cent by 2030, based on 2005 levels.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's climate action rhetoric is disappointing, according to Mr Fraser. Photo: Andrew Meares

As opposition leader in 2009, Mr Turnbull fought for an emissions trading scheme, a stance that famously lost him the party leadership.
He has also previously described the Coalition's emissions reduction fund, which pays companies to cut their pollution, as a "very expensive charge on the budget". However, last week he told Parliament "the government's policy on climate is right".
The Climate Change Authority, an independent body set up by Labor, wanted the government to pursue far deeper emissions cuts.

Senator David Leyonhjelm signalled a crossbench revolt if the Coalition reneges on a move to ban government investment in wind and household solar.

The centrepiece of Direct Action, the emissions reduction fund, pays companies to cut their pollution. But Mr Fraser said the government "haven't really got any comprehensive set of policies to deliver even on that modest target".
"Direct Action has a very heavy budgetary impost and … the budgetary consequences of that are not reliable or sustainable," he said.
The Climate Change Authority is due to release a draft report on emissions trading schemes by November 30.
Mr Fraser predicted it would show such schemes were the best way, operationally and economically, to cut greenhouse pollution.
Labor has announced plans to implement an emissions trading scheme if it wins power.
There has been speculation that a Turnbull-led government could tweak the Direct Action plan towards an emissions trading scheme, or put a stronger cap on industry emissions and enact new pollution standards for coal-fired power plants.
Mr Fraser said Australians must be "active players in the future and not looking backwards all the time, which the previous prime minister was inclined to do".
The office of Mr Turnbull has been contacted for comment.
The Turnbull government has indicated a new attitude to renewable energy, and it is unclear if it will pursue a draft directive to the Clean Energy Finance Corporation to ban investment in wind energy and household solar projects.
Senator Leyonhjelm, who is opposed to wind power, said a government deal with crossbenchers in June meant efforts would be directed towards "emerging" renewable technologies, rather than wind and small-scale solar.
"If the government were to renege on its commitment, this would not bode well for crossbench support for further government initiatives," he said.
Greens MP Adam Bandt wrote to the government on Monday saying the draft directive to the CEFC hinders the corporation's ability to perform and should be dropped.
"The new Treasurer could turbocharge investment in renewables at no cost to the budget, simply by letting the CEFC do its job without interference," he said.
Responsibility for the CEFC and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency has been transferred to Environment Minister Greg Hunt.
This has raised hopes the Coalition no longer intends to abolish them, but a spokeswoman for Mr Hunt said "there has been no change to government policy".

Coastal Flooding, Erosion Forecast, As Storms Gather Pace

Fairfax - Peter Spinks

Researchers from 13 institutions find that patterns in coastal change are connected to major climate cycles.



Brace for impact. Dramatic flooding and erosion across populated coastal regions of the Pacific Ocean will result from more severe storms driven by climate change, climate scientists warn.
The predicted storms will impact areas from south-east Queensland through southern New South Wales to eastern Tasmania. On the eastern Victorian coast, places such as 90 Mile Beach will also be affected, says co-researcher, Professor Andrew Short of Sydney University.
"As a result, coastal erosion on many Australian beaches could be worse than currently predicted, based on sea level rise alone," he warns.
Data for the comprehensive study came from 48 beaches across three continents and five countries bordering the Pacific Ocean, including Australia, New Zealand, Hawaii, Japan, Canada and mainland United States – all of which would be affected by the surge in storms.
Researchers from 13 institutions, who analysed the data from 1979 to 2012, sought to determine whether patterns in coastal change might be connected to major climate cycles.
Global climate change increases the likelihood of stronger El Nino and La Nina weather patterns – the alternative warming and cooling over large parts of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Previous research has analysed coastal impacts at local and regional levels, but this is the first study to collate data from across the Pacific to determine basin-wide patterns.
"La Nina events – the converse of El Nino – result in more intense and frequent storms in the Coral-Tasman seas," Professor Short says.
"These, in turn, produce more waves, and higher waves, from the east. This leads to general beach erosion along the south-east Australia coast."
Professor Short says climate change is driving both rises in sea level, which leads to beach erosion, as well as more intense storms during La Nina years. "These will generate even more beach erosion – so it's a double whammy," Professor Short explains.
While not part of this study, he says that east coast low-pressure systems not only generate big waves but also bring strong damaging winds, heavy rain and flooding to regions of south-eastern Australia, including eastern Victoria.
The research is published today (September 22) in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Link
Read the Nature Geoscience article