Earth's Climate Entering New 'Permanent Reality' As CO2 Hits New High

The Guardian - Adam Vaughan

UN experts urge immediate action to cut emissions as CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are on track to hit historic high, up 43% on pre-industrial times

Paris focus: Latest greenhouse gas warnings come just weeks before major global climate talks.
Photograph: Chesnot/Getty Images

The Earth’s climate will enter a new “permanent reality” from next year when concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are likely to pass a historic milestone, the head of the UN’s weather agency has warned.
The record concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were up 43% since pre-industrial times, said the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), prompting its secretary general Michel Jarraud to say immediate action was needed to cut CO2 emissions.
The WMO’s latest greenhouse gas bulletin comes just three weeks before world leaders including Barack Obama, Xi Jinping and David Cameron meet in Paris in a bid to reach a new deal on cutting emissions.

Atmospheric CO2

Guardian graphic Source: World Meteorological Organization

Concentrations of CO2 stood at a global annual average of 397.7ppm in 2014, up from about 278ppm in 1750, and the UN said the global annual average is likely to pass the symbolic 400ppm milestone in 2016. Scientists say that the ‘safe’ level of CO2 to avoid dangerous global warming is more like 350ppm.
“We will soon be living with globally averaged CO2 levels above 400 parts per million as a permanent reality,” said Jarraud.
“We can’t see CO2. It is an invisible threat, but a very real one. It means hotter global temperatures, more extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods, melting ice, rising sea levels and increased acidity of the oceans. This is happening now and we are moving into uncharted territory at a frightening speed,” he said.
The increase in CO2 concentrations from 2013 to 2014 was 1.9ppm CO2, slightly lower than the mean for the last decade of 2.06ppm, but higher than the 1990s mean of 1.5ppm.
The WMO also warned that the rising Earth surface temperature caused by these record CO2 concentrations created a vicious circle when it comes to water vapour. Higher temperatures lead to more atmospheric water vapour, which in turn traps even more heat.
Jarraud said that each year he announced new records for CO2 concentrations and that to keep temperatures within manageable levels, CO2 emissions from factories, cars and power plants needed to be cut now. “The laws of physics are non-negotiable,” he said.

COP21 In Paris Doesn't Define Climate Change Action

The Huffington Post Australia - Lisette Collins

Pete Turner via Getty Images

As we get closer to the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) in Paris in November and December, the thought pieces, blogs, and public lectures have been piling up. What will success at COP21 look like? What will it mean for global climate efforts? What if it is a failure?
But is all this time, energy, and media scrutiny misplaced? As someone who has been working in the Australian climate change adaptation space for the past four years, I believe so.
While the outcomes of COP21 will undoubtedly impact the world's ability to significantly lower global emissions, many are unaware that a lot of the groundwork on climate action has already begun at a local level across the country.
For the past three decades, the international community has debated the veracity of climate science, employed market mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions (to varying success), and debated reduction targets, while Smaller Island Developing States (and later other developing countries) have pleaded for action to halt the climate impacts they have been experiencing over the past few years.
Australia is a laggard when it comes to emissions reduction, with a poor target to take to Paris and the political baggage of climate sceptics in key political positions.
What most Australians don't know is that local councils have been developing Climate Change Adaptation Plans (CCAPs) since 2007, with well over 100 plans across the country. The Federal government may be dragging its feet, but local councils have been all over this for years.
The most recent council to release its CCAP was the City of Sydney. The adaptation strategy was developed with the input of internal and external stakeholders as well as the input of our Sydney University Research team (Professor David Schlosberg, Dr Simon Niemeyer and myself) who designed a Citizens' Panel to contribute to the development of the CCAP.
The strategy now includes the concerns raised by citizens through that Panel, with citizen-endorsed actions and prioritised risks highlighted throughout. This policy development is independent of COP21, and has real implications for overcoming the challenges presented by climate impacts.
For the most part, CCAP development has evaded attention in Australia. The general public are largely unaware of the amount of work their local councils have done in this space, and a lot of that conscious 'under-the-radar' approach can be traced back to negative politics over climate change in the country.
Regardless of the outcome in Paris, local councils will continue to plan for the extreme weather events brought about by climate change, especially the ones they are already beginning to face such as prolonged heatwaves, severe bushfires and wild storm weather.
Furthermore, as pointed out at the recent Sydney Ideas event A Global Climate Deal in 2015, civil society has and will continue to play a huge role in building momentum for climate action.
Canadian author and activist Naomi Klein rightfully devotes chapters to the progress of social movements and grassroots activists across the world in achieving climate wins in her climate change bestseller This Changes Everything.
Increasingly, it is the efforts of local communities who Lock the Gate, participate in blockadia, divest, and campaign for climate action which creates the momentum needed to face the climate challenge.
And the momentum in Australia is not just underway in the adaptation space. The recent release of the movie Frackman and successful launch of 'Powershop' (which recently partnered with Oxfam) over the past year indicate that Australians are increasingly aware of the need to mitigate emissions, to reconnect with the Earth, and to work towards a non-polluting economy.
Recent research conducted for my thesis also indicates that Australians do not always distinguish between mitigation and adaptation specifically, but rather approach the issue with a focus on holistic, interconnected strategies to deal with the climate change problem.
Paris is not the be-all and end-all for global climate change action. Incremental changes over the past 10 years have delivered pockets of success all over the globe, and those will continue post-Paris regardless of what happens.
Why wait for the outcomes of Paris? There is plenty of engagement already taking place.

Australia Faces Rising Perils From Climate Change, Earthquakes: Munich Re Report

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Sydney can expect 30 per cent more thunderstorm days as the climate warms up, Munich Re says.
Photo: Nick Moir

Sydney faces almost one-third more hailstorm days, Brisbane is at a rising risk of a direct hit from a category-three cyclone, and south-eastern Australia will have to endure three times as many high-risk bushfire days over the century because of climate change, one of the world's biggest re-insurers says.
The costs to Australia from natural catastrophes has almost quadrupled from 1980 to reach $6.3 billion year, a figure which soar to $23 billion by 2050, according to Munich Re's latest Expect the Unexpected report.
Most of the threats, ranging from droughts to heatwaves and sea-level rise, will be worsened by a warming planet caused by rising greenhouse gas levels, Eberhard Faust, head of climate risk research for Munich Re, told Fairfax Media.

Boats hammered after Cyclone Yasi in 2001. Photo: Glen Hunt GTH

While north-east Australia can expect the number of tropical cyclones of moderate to medium intensity to drop by as much as 35 per cent over the century, the most powerful storms will likely increase in frequency, climate models indicate.
The region of cyclones' maximum intensity is also shifting poleward in both the northern and southern hemispheres. That means a category 3-strength cyclone hitting Brisbane - which has had near misses in the past - "is on the cards", Dr Faust said.

Tropical cyclones Lam and Marcia over Australia in February 2015 - expect more such storms further south, Munich Re says. Photo: NOAA

"Insurers should really get it on the radar ... and think about the huge exposure and what the consequences would be," he said. Regions from the Gold Coast to Brisbane are exposed to risks from storm surges, wind damage and floods.
Shifting wind patterns that may hamper the formation of cyclones have other consequences, such as triggering more thunderstorms. These events already count among Australia's biggest natural disasters, such as the April 1999 Sydney hailstorm that left a $3.8 billion damage bill in today's dollars.
For Sydney, the number of days a year with atmospheric conditions conducive for thunderstorms will rise by 30 per cent by the end of the century, based on a high global emissions trajectory. For Melbourne, the increase will be about 20 per cent, Dr Faust said.
Bushfire risks, too, will be elevated by a combination of worse droughts and also rising hotter temperatures.
"In terms of the atmospheric conditions which are prone to forest fires, models project up to a three-fold increase in frequency by the end of the century for southern and eastern Australia," Dr Faust said.

Quake risks
While nations can limit the damage by curbing carbon emissions, constructing more resilient homes, bridges and other buildings would cut Australia's future repair bills. Such spending can also help protect against a threat few Australians have considered - earthquakes.
Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and especially Adelaide are located in areas with an "enhanced level of seismicity", with the South Australian capital already rocked by a magnitude-5.4 quake in 1954, Munich Re said.
A repeat of Adelaide's1954 temblor would likely leave a multi-billion dollar bill in insured losses alone, while a magnitude-6 event - which happens somewhere in Australia roughly once every five years - would potentially cost tens of billions of dollars, the reinsurer said.
"There's a realistic scenario that one of [Australia's] big cities might be hit by a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake," Dr Faust said.