The Climate Institute
The first Australian analysis of possible outcomes from the upcoming 21st ‘conference of parties’ (COP21) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, to be held in Paris, has been released by The Climate Institute.
The policy brief, entitled Paris Climate Summit: Catalyst for further action? outlines three possible outcome scenarios from the COP21 negotiations on a post-2020 agreement – ‘Catalyst’, ‘Momentum’ and ‘Patchwork’.
“We do not expect, under any of the possible outcomes, that the world will do a U-turn on clean energy investment trends after COP21 and return to investing more in fossil fuel power than it does in clean energy,” said Deputy CEO Erwin Jackson, who is attending the negotiations planned for 30 November to 11 December.
“COP21 won’t fix everything but the best possible agreement will be one that very clearly sets the world on a path to the international goal of avoiding global warming of 2°C above pre-industrial levels and meets three key criteria – Is it bankable? Does it build trust and accountability? Is it fair?
“The aim of the COP21 conference is to end up with an agreement that drives stronger and stronger domestic policies from all countries to boost clean technologies, limit carbon pollution and help avoid 2°C warming.
“COP21 has already succeeded in putting pressure on countries, including Australia, to put forward new pollution targets and to begin developing new policies to achieve them, when they may otherwise have not done that.
“When we talk about a COP21 agreement being bankable, accountable and fair, we are talking about achieving high levels of investment confidence that policies will continually ratchet up to achieve net zero emissions,” Jackson said.
“We are also talking about credible rules to ensure that best practices are shared and that the actions countries commit to are transparent, accountable and regularly reviewed.
“A fair agreement would ensure the world’s poorest nations have access to predictable investment support that lets them participate in clean technology solutions and the management of climate risks,” Erwin Jackson said.
“With these three criteria firmly in place, the agreement stands a chance of achieving our ‘Catalyst’ scenario, which sets the scene for countries, business and investors to accelerate actions to end emissions through time.”
Under the ‘Momentum’ scenario, the net zero emissions goal may not be as clear. The process to step action is less defined, but the 2°C goal is kept in sight. Domestic actions develop over time and new targets are set.
The ‘Patchwork’ scenario would see a lack of clarity on key issues, but investment in clean energy and climate solutions continues within those countries and industries, seeing action as part of their own long term prosperity.
While The Climate Institute has criticised the government’s initial post-2020 target as “inadequate”, CEO John Connor said Australia could still be a player in achieving the best possible scenario at COP21 in Paris.
“The Australian government can help COP21 be a real catalyst for action by supporting vital positions for that scenario: strong ratchet mechanisms; inclusion of a long term 2050 net zero emissions goal, and; delivering on commitments to scale up climate finance support for developing countries,” Connor said.
“Our analysis of the Emissions Reduction Fund and other current policy makes clear Australia can’t yet credibly deliver on its commitment to help avoid 2°C warming. Now is the time to develop the policies that really matter in doing our bit with other countries, and also in modernising and cleaning up our economy,” Connor concluded.
22/11/2015
El Niño Is Here And That Means Droughts, But They Don’t Work How You Might Think
Climate Change Institute - Professor Michael Roderick
With an El Niño looming large this summer, it is very likely we will start to hear quite a bit about drought over the coming months.
Inevitably, at some point you will hear someone say that the warmer temperatures are making the drought worse. This is guaranteed to cause confusion because it’s not actually how droughts work.
For a drought-prone country, it is quite surprising how few Australians really understand them. Most believe it is a simple equation: rainfall goes down and the temperature rises, leading to more evaporation and an increasingly parched landscape.
But the truth is much more interesting and complex, and the idea that increased evaporation is responsible for common droughts is completely wrong. In fact the issue of how droughts develop is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation.
The first part of the general idea about drought – that it is kicked off by a decline in rainfall – is correct. But it is the cascading set of changes that occur after this that are often misunderstood.
Why evaporation declines
In a dry region like the Australian wheatbelt, a decline in rainfall also means a decline in evaporation, not an increase as many people suppose.
When we talk about a decline in evaporation in this context, we are talking about evaporation over large regions like wheat fields, sheep paddocks, woodlands, grasslands and so on, not just the evaporation from a small farm dam.
When rainfall declines, the availability of water to be evaporated in the soil also declines. Quite simply, if there is little water in the soil then evaporation can’t increase.
So less rainfall means less evaporation, which in turn means less evaporative cooling of the land and the air immediately above it. To appreciate how evaporative cooling works, think about the principle behind the Coolgardie Safe or those old-school hessian water bags that have made a recent comeback in some hipster shops. Or if you prefer, think about how much cooler a lawn is than a concrete driveway on a hot sunny day – that’s because the lawn is cooled by evaporation.
In a drought, then, the relative lack of evaporative cooling means the land surface and the air just above it tend to get warmer still. Scientists call this a land-surface feedback. But that is just one part of the cascade that increases temperatures.
Where there is less rain, there are also typically fewer clouds and more sunshine. Extra sunshine means extra heat and this has to go somewhere. In normal circumstances, it would go towards evaporation from plants and soil. But with little available water it heats the surface of the land, which makes it even warmer again.
With everything pushing the temperature in the same direction, the net effect is even warmer daytime temperatures. So the lack of rainfall drives the temperatures up, not the other way around.
Drought in wetter regions – the same but different
Droughts in wetter regions such as the heavily forested parts of the Snowy Mountains region can also start with a decline in rainfall, much like in drier places, but there the similarity ends.
In the wetter regions, evaporation does not necessarily decline with the rainfall, because there is still plenty of water around to evaporate. Instead, the decline in rainfall can eventually become a driver of a different kind of drought.
In wetter regions, water that isn’t evaporated flows into streams and rivers. You can even think of streams as the “surplus” water left over after evaporation.
The first sign of drought in these regions is not necessarily warming but is instead a decline in stream flows.
Scientists call a relative decline in rainfall a meteorological drought, whereas a relative decline in stream flow signals a hydrologic drought. The two usually, but not always, go together.
A third type of drought
Agricultural drought is the third type of widely recognised drought. This is a much more complex beast.
It includes both natural factors, like insufficient rainfall and soil moisture to support agricultural production but there are a range of socioeconomic factors like commodity prices, debt levels, and so on, that are also important. Drought is complex – just ask any farmer!
Even the natural science part of agricultural drought can be complex. For example, Papua New Guinea’s current, worsening drought has led to devastating crop losses and unconfirmed reports of dozens of deaths from starvation and disease.
But the PNG crop losses have been caused by frost, rather than directly by water shortage. There, a lack of cloud during meteorological drought has meant that the land surface has lost heat rapidly overnight, leaving the crops to freeze.
The large but short-term increases in temperature caused by a relative lack of water and lack of evaporative cooling during a drought are very different from the slower long-term increase in temperature that has occurred over the past century.
Understanding how those long-term temperature trends interact with drought remains a work in progress. But in the meantime, if drought begins to bite this summer, at least you’ll understand what’s going on.
Drought is a quintessentially Australian experience, yet many of us don’t properly know how they form. AAP Image/Caroline Duncan |
With an El Niño looming large this summer, it is very likely we will start to hear quite a bit about drought over the coming months.
Inevitably, at some point you will hear someone say that the warmer temperatures are making the drought worse. This is guaranteed to cause confusion because it’s not actually how droughts work.
For a drought-prone country, it is quite surprising how few Australians really understand them. Most believe it is a simple equation: rainfall goes down and the temperature rises, leading to more evaporation and an increasingly parched landscape.
But the truth is much more interesting and complex, and the idea that increased evaporation is responsible for common droughts is completely wrong. In fact the issue of how droughts develop is a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation.
The first part of the general idea about drought – that it is kicked off by a decline in rainfall – is correct. But it is the cascading set of changes that occur after this that are often misunderstood.
Why evaporation declines
In a dry region like the Australian wheatbelt, a decline in rainfall also means a decline in evaporation, not an increase as many people suppose.
When we talk about a decline in evaporation in this context, we are talking about evaporation over large regions like wheat fields, sheep paddocks, woodlands, grasslands and so on, not just the evaporation from a small farm dam.
When rainfall declines, the availability of water to be evaporated in the soil also declines. Quite simply, if there is little water in the soil then evaporation can’t increase.
So less rainfall means less evaporation, which in turn means less evaporative cooling of the land and the air immediately above it. To appreciate how evaporative cooling works, think about the principle behind the Coolgardie Safe or those old-school hessian water bags that have made a recent comeback in some hipster shops. Or if you prefer, think about how much cooler a lawn is than a concrete driveway on a hot sunny day – that’s because the lawn is cooled by evaporation.
In a drought, then, the relative lack of evaporative cooling means the land surface and the air just above it tend to get warmer still. Scientists call this a land-surface feedback. But that is just one part of the cascade that increases temperatures.
Where there is less rain, there are also typically fewer clouds and more sunshine. Extra sunshine means extra heat and this has to go somewhere. In normal circumstances, it would go towards evaporation from plants and soil. But with little available water it heats the surface of the land, which makes it even warmer again.
With everything pushing the temperature in the same direction, the net effect is even warmer daytime temperatures. So the lack of rainfall drives the temperatures up, not the other way around.
Drought in wetter regions – the same but different
Droughts in wetter regions such as the heavily forested parts of the Snowy Mountains region can also start with a decline in rainfall, much like in drier places, but there the similarity ends.
In the wetter regions, evaporation does not necessarily decline with the rainfall, because there is still plenty of water around to evaporate. Instead, the decline in rainfall can eventually become a driver of a different kind of drought.
In wetter regions, water that isn’t evaporated flows into streams and rivers. You can even think of streams as the “surplus” water left over after evaporation.
The first sign of drought in these regions is not necessarily warming but is instead a decline in stream flows.
Scientists call a relative decline in rainfall a meteorological drought, whereas a relative decline in stream flow signals a hydrologic drought. The two usually, but not always, go together.
A third type of drought
Agricultural drought is the third type of widely recognised drought. This is a much more complex beast.
Papua New Guinea's frost-driven drought was recently declared the country's worst in 20 years. AAP Image/CARE Australia |
Even the natural science part of agricultural drought can be complex. For example, Papua New Guinea’s current, worsening drought has led to devastating crop losses and unconfirmed reports of dozens of deaths from starvation and disease.
But the PNG crop losses have been caused by frost, rather than directly by water shortage. There, a lack of cloud during meteorological drought has meant that the land surface has lost heat rapidly overnight, leaving the crops to freeze.
The large but short-term increases in temperature caused by a relative lack of water and lack of evaporative cooling during a drought are very different from the slower long-term increase in temperature that has occurred over the past century.
Understanding how those long-term temperature trends interact with drought remains a work in progress. But in the meantime, if drought begins to bite this summer, at least you’ll understand what’s going on.
Children Sue Over Climate Change
Slate - Eric Holthaus
It’s like the plot of a Disney movie: 21 kids with gumption pitted against the president of the United States.
Renowned climate scientist James Hansen has joined a federal lawsuit on behalf of his granddaughter, Sophie, in what could eventually pave the way for a major civil rights decision. Courtesy of Our Children’s Trust |
Since adults aren’t doing such a great job at saving the planet, a group of kids has decided to try to protect their future on their own. (OK, some lawyers are helping, too.)
A new lawsuit against the federal government, filed by a group of 21 children and young adults between the ages of 8 and 19, could become a major new front against climate change—and a preview of the next important civil rights struggle of the 21st century.
Climate justice means securing the right of all people—those alive today and those in the future—to a stable environment that protects their life, liberty, and property. In his environmental encyclical this summer, Pope Francis argued that climate change is “one of the principal challenges facing humanity in our day,” a human rights issue that, on our current course, threatens to worsen racial, economic, and social injustice, and challenges the basic decency that makes us human. Top climate scientists tell us, in increasingly urgent dispatches, that we’re running out of time to change course. Obviously, if you’re a 10-year-old and hearing about all this for the first time, you’re going to be pretty mad.
The Obama administration has recently issued a bevy of new regulations designed to reduce American emissions, but the numbers still fall short. The latest science says much bolder action is necessary, especially by historically large polluters like the United States, to avert a truly horrific, and potentially irreversible, modification of the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere—Earth’s basic life-support system that makes human civilization possible. This month, world leaders, including President Obama, will meet in Paris to negotiate the first-ever global agreement on climate change, so the stakes are especially high right now.
At first glance, the circumstances surrounding this lawsuit read like a storyline straight out of a Disney movie: On one side, a group of energetic kids, joined by a wise and genial grandfather who is fond of fedoras. On the other side, the president of the United States. Will the kids save the world?
The legal team behind the new federal case, Our Children’s Trust, has been pursuing the same basic strategy for several years now, though this is its highest profile case. A separate petition from the group, filed in Washington state, recently got the attention of the governor, who agreed to meet with the teenage petitioners and subsequently ordered stricter emissions reductions for his state.
“Kids understand the threats climate change will have on our future,” said 13-year-old Zoe Foster, a petitioner in the Washington state case. “I’m not going to sit by and watch my government do nothing. We don’t have time to waste. I’m pushing my government to take real action on climate, and I won’t stop until change is made.”
Last week brought an interesting twist in the plot: Three groups representing the fossil fuel industry joined the federal case as intervenors, arguing that the lawsuit is “extraordinary” and “a direct threat to [their] businesses” and that, if the kids win, “massive societal changes” and an “unprecedented restructuring of the economy” could result.
The groups are the American Petroleum Institute, which includes BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell; the National Association of Manufacturers, which calls itself “the leading advocate for a pro-growth agenda”; and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, which includes DuPont and Koch Industries. All have been outspoken against climate legislation. They will argue that the kids, in this case, don’t have standing—the individualized harm that gives the plaintiff a legal cause of action—because climate change is mostly a prediction of harm, and that, even if they are being harmed, climate change is a question for Congress to decide anyway.
The kids’ lawyers see it differently.
“The biggest fossil fuel polluters on the planet, including Exxon and Koch Industries, just asked the court for permission to argue that young people don’t have a constitutional right to life if it means reducing fossil fuel use,” Julia Olson, the lead attorney from Our Children’s Trust said in a statement. In a follow-up interview with Slate, Olson went a step further: “It’s good news for us that they’re doing this. They see this as a legitimate case.”
Michael Blumm, a professor at Lewis and Clark Law School in Portland, Oregon, who is not involved in the lawsuit, agrees the addition of fossil fuel industry representatives could make things awkward for the Obama administration. “One of the ironies of the case is: The government, which is bashed by the fossil fuel industry for its alleged war on coal and for the Keystone thing, is now in lockstep with them in this lawsuit.” Blumm added that it wasn’t unusual for groups like these three to intervene on high-profile cases where they might expect the government, as a defendant, wouldn’t necessarily be arguing in their best interests.
The lawsuit seeks comprehensive, science-based legislation to return atmospheric carbon dioxide to 350 parts per million by 2100. That’s why the kids’ team has enlisted the help of James Hansen, the renowned former NASA scientist, who filed lengthy, emotionally charged testimony with the suit on behalf of his granddaughter, Sophie Kivlehan, one of the plaintiffs, who is 17.
Unlike many previous cases filed by Our Children’s Trust, which have focused on the somewhat obscure legal idea that governments have an innate duty as intergenerational trustees to protect the natural resources under their domains, this case is a straight-up constitutional challenge aimed at securing intergenerational equity in the context of climate change. The atmospheric trust idea has so far gained only limited traction in the several times it’s been tried, including a 2011 federal case dismissed by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Alec L. v. McCarthy, which was brought by Our Children’s Trust.
Blumm, who filed an amicus brief in support of Alec L., believes the constitutional claim made by the current case is different. “It would be a path-breaking suit if it succeeds,” Blumm told me. “They’re trying for revolutionary change on the order of Brown v. Board and Obergefell v. Hodges, and they may be able to succeed.”
Earlier this year, a Dutch court found that its federal government was legally obligated to reduce greenhouse emissions, the first ruling of its kind anywhere in the world. Constitutional law scholars are generally divided on whether a challenge like this will be successful in the United States, because our Constitution doesn’t specifically provide the right to environmental protection.
Still, the lawyers behind the kids’ case say that may not matter.
They assert that the Due Process Clause of the Fifth and 14th Amendments and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment—the basis of many civil rights cases—require the government to pay special attention to the harm climate change inflicts on children and future generations.
The case is the latest example of a quickly growing cultural realization that what humans are doing to the climate is fundamentally unjust and that traditional political change is just too slow to address it. With a congressional deadlock on climate likely to continue into the next presidency, regardless of who wins the White House in 2016, the court system may be the last reasonable pathway for change on the scale that scientists say is necessary.
Still, a case like this is aimed at energizing the political branches, not superseding them. It’s a very unlikely scenario that this specific case reaches the Supreme Court and results in a favorable decision. But a favorable Supreme Court decision would likely result in a historic mandate for Congress to decide on the best way to put the country on a crash carbon diet with minimal economic impact.
Instead, this particular case will probably die at the district or circuit court level, though even if that happens, it could inspire follow-on lawsuits for years that would hope to catch a more favorable judge or cultural moment, according to environmental and constitutional law scholars I spoke with.
If Congress remains reluctant to act and those follow-on lawsuits also fail, young people would likely inherit a federal government with a much diminished opportunity for addressing climate change. “People in the political branches 20 or 25 years from now are going to look back on people in the political branches today and say, ‘You gave us a mess,’” said Blumm.
Meanwhile, we will be watching geological-scale change happen in the span of a human lifetime. If climate ambition is framed based on what’s possible politically in this current moment, then we will fail. This lawsuit, and future ones like it, helps to moralize climate action and make it much more personal.
Hansen, now 74, says of his continuing research and advocacy on climate change since leaving NASA in 2013: “I am doing this for my grandchildren and future generations, and that does give you a completely different feeling. It makes it possible to keep working hard.”
His most recent paper, a deeply troubling assessment of the near-term potential for worst-case-scenario sea level rise, made global headlines earlier this year. In a 2013 paper, he outlined how fast the world would have to switch to carbon-neutral forms of energy to preserve a stable climate. The original title, Hansen told me, was in honor of his granddaughter: “Sophie vs. Obama.”
At the heart of his work is frustration with the slow pace of political progress on the climate issue. Though governments have pledged significant cuts in emissions as part of the runup to the Paris negotiations, there’s a big difference between pledges and actual, legally enforceable policy.
Another risk, Hansen says, is that “you don’t want people believing in what I call the ‘half-baked, half-assed solution.’ You don’t want people believing that they’re actually solving the problem if they aren’t. … There is a danger that they’ll claim victory, and people won’t notice for another decade that it wasn’t victory.”
So Hansen, who will attend the Paris climate talks, has put his name on this lawsuit—mostly as a way to force Congress and the president to pay more attention to climate change, and, in his words, “the sooner the better.”
Whether this case gains significant traction—and more importantly, how many years it takes for this case or one like it to succeed—may well decide Americans’ quality of life for generations. But just as the struggle for same-sex marriage felt hopeless until it succeeded, right now, for these kids at least, it’s a long shot.
A new lawsuit against the federal government, filed by a group of 21 children and young adults between the ages of 8 and 19, could become a major new front against climate change—and a preview of the next important civil rights struggle of the 21st century.
Climate justice means securing the right of all people—those alive today and those in the future—to a stable environment that protects their life, liberty, and property. In his environmental encyclical this summer, Pope Francis argued that climate change is “one of the principal challenges facing humanity in our day,” a human rights issue that, on our current course, threatens to worsen racial, economic, and social injustice, and challenges the basic decency that makes us human. Top climate scientists tell us, in increasingly urgent dispatches, that we’re running out of time to change course. Obviously, if you’re a 10-year-old and hearing about all this for the first time, you’re going to be pretty mad.
The Obama administration has recently issued a bevy of new regulations designed to reduce American emissions, but the numbers still fall short. The latest science says much bolder action is necessary, especially by historically large polluters like the United States, to avert a truly horrific, and potentially irreversible, modification of the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere—Earth’s basic life-support system that makes human civilization possible. This month, world leaders, including President Obama, will meet in Paris to negotiate the first-ever global agreement on climate change, so the stakes are especially high right now.
At first glance, the circumstances surrounding this lawsuit read like a storyline straight out of a Disney movie: On one side, a group of energetic kids, joined by a wise and genial grandfather who is fond of fedoras. On the other side, the president of the United States. Will the kids save the world?
The legal team behind the new federal case, Our Children’s Trust, has been pursuing the same basic strategy for several years now, though this is its highest profile case. A separate petition from the group, filed in Washington state, recently got the attention of the governor, who agreed to meet with the teenage petitioners and subsequently ordered stricter emissions reductions for his state.
“Kids understand the threats climate change will have on our future,” said 13-year-old Zoe Foster, a petitioner in the Washington state case. “I’m not going to sit by and watch my government do nothing. We don’t have time to waste. I’m pushing my government to take real action on climate, and I won’t stop until change is made.”
Last week brought an interesting twist in the plot: Three groups representing the fossil fuel industry joined the federal case as intervenors, arguing that the lawsuit is “extraordinary” and “a direct threat to [their] businesses” and that, if the kids win, “massive societal changes” and an “unprecedented restructuring of the economy” could result.
The groups are the American Petroleum Institute, which includes BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell; the National Association of Manufacturers, which calls itself “the leading advocate for a pro-growth agenda”; and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, which includes DuPont and Koch Industries. All have been outspoken against climate legislation. They will argue that the kids, in this case, don’t have standing—the individualized harm that gives the plaintiff a legal cause of action—because climate change is mostly a prediction of harm, and that, even if they are being harmed, climate change is a question for Congress to decide anyway.
The kids’ lawyers see it differently.
“The biggest fossil fuel polluters on the planet, including Exxon and Koch Industries, just asked the court for permission to argue that young people don’t have a constitutional right to life if it means reducing fossil fuel use,” Julia Olson, the lead attorney from Our Children’s Trust said in a statement. In a follow-up interview with Slate, Olson went a step further: “It’s good news for us that they’re doing this. They see this as a legitimate case.”
Michael Blumm, a professor at Lewis and Clark Law School in Portland, Oregon, who is not involved in the lawsuit, agrees the addition of fossil fuel industry representatives could make things awkward for the Obama administration. “One of the ironies of the case is: The government, which is bashed by the fossil fuel industry for its alleged war on coal and for the Keystone thing, is now in lockstep with them in this lawsuit.” Blumm added that it wasn’t unusual for groups like these three to intervene on high-profile cases where they might expect the government, as a defendant, wouldn’t necessarily be arguing in their best interests.
The lawsuit seeks comprehensive, science-based legislation to return atmospheric carbon dioxide to 350 parts per million by 2100. That’s why the kids’ team has enlisted the help of James Hansen, the renowned former NASA scientist, who filed lengthy, emotionally charged testimony with the suit on behalf of his granddaughter, Sophie Kivlehan, one of the plaintiffs, who is 17.
Unlike many previous cases filed by Our Children’s Trust, which have focused on the somewhat obscure legal idea that governments have an innate duty as intergenerational trustees to protect the natural resources under their domains, this case is a straight-up constitutional challenge aimed at securing intergenerational equity in the context of climate change. The atmospheric trust idea has so far gained only limited traction in the several times it’s been tried, including a 2011 federal case dismissed by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Alec L. v. McCarthy, which was brought by Our Children’s Trust.
Blumm, who filed an amicus brief in support of Alec L., believes the constitutional claim made by the current case is different. “It would be a path-breaking suit if it succeeds,” Blumm told me. “They’re trying for revolutionary change on the order of Brown v. Board and Obergefell v. Hodges, and they may be able to succeed.”
Earlier this year, a Dutch court found that its federal government was legally obligated to reduce greenhouse emissions, the first ruling of its kind anywhere in the world. Constitutional law scholars are generally divided on whether a challenge like this will be successful in the United States, because our Constitution doesn’t specifically provide the right to environmental protection.
Still, the lawyers behind the kids’ case say that may not matter.
They assert that the Due Process Clause of the Fifth and 14th Amendments and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment—the basis of many civil rights cases—require the government to pay special attention to the harm climate change inflicts on children and future generations.
The case is the latest example of a quickly growing cultural realization that what humans are doing to the climate is fundamentally unjust and that traditional political change is just too slow to address it. With a congressional deadlock on climate likely to continue into the next presidency, regardless of who wins the White House in 2016, the court system may be the last reasonable pathway for change on the scale that scientists say is necessary.
Still, a case like this is aimed at energizing the political branches, not superseding them. It’s a very unlikely scenario that this specific case reaches the Supreme Court and results in a favorable decision. But a favorable Supreme Court decision would likely result in a historic mandate for Congress to decide on the best way to put the country on a crash carbon diet with minimal economic impact.
Instead, this particular case will probably die at the district or circuit court level, though even if that happens, it could inspire follow-on lawsuits for years that would hope to catch a more favorable judge or cultural moment, according to environmental and constitutional law scholars I spoke with.
If Congress remains reluctant to act and those follow-on lawsuits also fail, young people would likely inherit a federal government with a much diminished opportunity for addressing climate change. “People in the political branches 20 or 25 years from now are going to look back on people in the political branches today and say, ‘You gave us a mess,’” said Blumm.
Meanwhile, we will be watching geological-scale change happen in the span of a human lifetime. If climate ambition is framed based on what’s possible politically in this current moment, then we will fail. This lawsuit, and future ones like it, helps to moralize climate action and make it much more personal.
Hansen, now 74, says of his continuing research and advocacy on climate change since leaving NASA in 2013: “I am doing this for my grandchildren and future generations, and that does give you a completely different feeling. It makes it possible to keep working hard.”
His most recent paper, a deeply troubling assessment of the near-term potential for worst-case-scenario sea level rise, made global headlines earlier this year. In a 2013 paper, he outlined how fast the world would have to switch to carbon-neutral forms of energy to preserve a stable climate. The original title, Hansen told me, was in honor of his granddaughter: “Sophie vs. Obama.”
At the heart of his work is frustration with the slow pace of political progress on the climate issue. Though governments have pledged significant cuts in emissions as part of the runup to the Paris negotiations, there’s a big difference between pledges and actual, legally enforceable policy.
Another risk, Hansen says, is that “you don’t want people believing in what I call the ‘half-baked, half-assed solution.’ You don’t want people believing that they’re actually solving the problem if they aren’t. … There is a danger that they’ll claim victory, and people won’t notice for another decade that it wasn’t victory.”
So Hansen, who will attend the Paris climate talks, has put his name on this lawsuit—mostly as a way to force Congress and the president to pay more attention to climate change, and, in his words, “the sooner the better.”
Whether this case gains significant traction—and more importantly, how many years it takes for this case or one like it to succeed—may well decide Americans’ quality of life for generations. But just as the struggle for same-sex marriage felt hopeless until it succeeded, right now, for these kids at least, it’s a long shot.