Climate Change Already Forcing World's Birds Towards Poles, Says Report

The Guardian - Arthur Neslen

One quarter of 570 bird species studied globally have been affected negatively by climate change, says Birdlife International

Only 54% of the Lilac-breeasted roller's (Coracias caudatus) current distribution is projected to retain suitable climate by 2085. Photograph: Anthony Goldman/Audubon Photography Awards

The world's birds have begun flocking towards the earth's north and south poles and upwards to
higher ground as climate change begins to transform their habitats, a new report has found.
One quarter of 570 bird species studied globally have been affected negatively by climate change, while 13% have responded positively, says the study by Birdlife International.
Tris Allinson , one of the paper's authors, told the Guardian: "People regard climate change as something on the horizon and about to happen but the signals from birds are that significant and profound changes are already occurring, with detrimental effects for a large proportion of the birds studied."
"We are seeing a consistent pattern of birds moving towards the north and south poles in their respective hemispheres, and moving to higher altitudes on mountain slopes," he added.

Keel-billed Toucan (Ramphastos sulfuratus) Photograph: Gerry Ellis/Getty Images

Traditional lowland species, such as Keel-billed toucans (Ramphastos sulfuratus), are now being found at elevations of up to 1,500m in Costa Rica, due to climate change. Grey jays (Perisoreus canadensis) have shifted their range northwards by an average 18.5km in the last 26 years.
One key trend involves 'warm-adapted' species becoming increasingly common in Europe while 'cool-adapted' animals experience dramatic declines.
Populations of much-loved animals such as Atlantic puffins and Adelie penguins have both plummeted by 50% in just a few generations.
"We are also seeing changes in birds' behaviour and in the timing of their migrations, which have knock on effects such as mismatches in their interactions with other species," Allinson said.
Cuckoos, for example, normally time their annual returns from Africa to make use of nests built by local birds, which then rear their young. As temperatures warm, cuckoos have brought forward their trips, but they are still arriving later than local birds are breeding. Cuckoo populations are now declining in several countries.
Birdlife's paper, The Messengers, predicts that most bird species will experience shrinking ranges, disrupted breeding seasons, and many are likely to shift their population distributions too slowly to cope with the onset of climate change.
The threat of extinctions and population declines is set to rise rapidly as a result. A third of Europe's birdlife is already considered endangered.
The majority of North American birds are projected to lose over half their current geographic range by the century's end while birds in parts of east Africa will lose all their suitable habitats.
Deforestation and sea level rise will likely compound the problem, destroying wetland and forests habitats, while malaria-free habitats are poised to increase dramatically.

Red-crowned cranes (Grus japonensis) Photograph: David Courtenay/Audubon Photography Awards

But the report also signals some cause for hope, with successful examples of the restoration of peatlands in eastern Europe and the creation of migratory corridors in the Red Sea region, allowing 1.5m soaring birds safe passage between pylons, electricity cables and wind turbines.
'Stepping stones' between fragmented environments and reforestation could also help ensure the future of the world's aviators, Birdlife says, along with environmental safeguards for bioenergy and conservation laws and planning.
"Nature has a vital role to play in tackling climate change, but it's often ignored," said Edward Perry, another of the report's authors. "Nature-based solutions not only offer an effective and accessible response to climate change: they also deliver a series of benefits to people and biodiversity."

Push For Global Moratorium On New Coal Mines By Leading Scientists And Economists

ABC AM - Michael Brissenden

MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: A collection of some of the world's leading scientists and economists will today publish an open letter calling for a global moratorium on new coal mines.
The letter, published later today in the New Scientist magazine and the Guardian newspaper, will argue it makes economic and scientific sense to stop building new coal mines.
The signatories include some Nobel Prize-winning economists, scientists and former business leaders.
One of them is Ian Dunlop, the former Shell executive and former chair of the Australian Coal Association.
I spoke to him earlier this morning.
Now, as I said, it's a collection of scientists, economists, experts and executives like yourself. Why have you decided to put your name to it?

IAN DUNLOP: It's really quite straightforward. The world has now reached the point where it is collectively agreeing that we have to limit temperature increase to certainly below two degrees C.
The leaders, political leaders are going to Paris next week to try and reach an agreement on this. But what we're still seeing is a lot of fog and confusion, I think, around the questions of: what does all that mean? I mean, how do we actually limit temperature to two degrees C and so on?
This is just trying to cut through all of that and say: Look, if you want to stay below two degrees C, there is no option but to stop - as one of the elements, a very important one - the development of new coal mines and the expansion of existing coal mines.

MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: And is that a view, you think, that a majority of the world's leaders share?

IAN DUNLOP: Well, I don't think a lot of the world leaders have really focused on this as yet. But the fact is that unless you do it, we have no way of staying below two degrees C. It's just not possible.
And that's borne out by organisations like the International Energy Agency which, if you look at what they're saying about the ability and how we actually get to two degrees C, it shows that coal demand is actually going to drop from now on by something like 36 per cent by 2040.
Now, in that world there is no space for no new coal mines. So that the proposals we have basically in Australia for, for example, the Adani mine in the Galilee Basin, Shenhua mine in the Liverpool Plains, the KEPCO mines in the Bylong Valley, the Hume Coal mines down in the Southern Highlands: all of these proposals do not fit with a world where you have to limit temperature below two degrees C.

MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: As I'm sure you're aware, Australia argues there's a strong moral case for new coal mines. You know the coal industry well. Isn't it true that coal, for the moment at least, is required to help to pull millions of people in developing countries out of poverty?

IAN DUNLOP: No, it's not true at all: in fact, quite the reverse. There is no moral case for further use of coal, because the use of coal in the way we've been doing it is, quite frankly, going to create enormous poverty.
If you look at a country like India: India is already experiencing climate extremes, as indeed Australia is; only it's been a bit worse there in terms of extreme heat, extreme rainfall and so on.
If we keep on pouring money into coal mines, what we're doing is just going to exacerbate poverty and create an enormous problem.
The real moral case is actually to help countries like India to avoid the high-carbon coal development path and move directly onto low-carbon alternatives: you know, renewables, gas, nuclear and so on.
Unless you stop coal development, the problem is just going to get compounded. And the world just has to face up to the fact that we have no choice but to do that.

MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: Malcolm Turnbull said recently that if Australia were to stop all its coal exports, it wouldn't reduce coal emissions - global emissions - one iota. In fact, he said, "arguably it would increase them because our coal, by and large, is cleaner than the coal in many other countries." Is that true?

IAN DUNLOP: Well, unfortunately that actually doesn't get borne out by the facts.
I mean, the sort of coal we're talking about exporting: in fact, the coal quality is dropping. It doesn't actually end up being very much better than a lot of coal you find in the countries we're talking of exporting it to.
And the solutions that people are talking about in terms of justifying the continuing use of coal - like the expansion of carbon capture and storage, for example - are not happening at anywhere near the scale or to the speed that we're going to require them.
So we actually don't have solutions to the enormous increase in emissions that these developments would actually represent.
But the point - I mean, the real point about this is that Australia has enormous potential to prosper in a low-carbon world and to help the developing world in terms of the export of our technologies.

MICHAEL BRISSENDEN: Ian Dunlop, former chair of the Australian Coal Association.

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