A Still-Growing El Niño Set To Bear Down On U.S.

NASA - Alan Buis

The latest satellite image of Pacific sea surface heights from Jason-2 (left) differs slightly from one 18 years ago from Topex/Poseidon (right). In Dec. 1997, sea surface height was more intense and peaked in November. This year the area of high sea levels is less intense but considerably broader. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

The current strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean shows no signs of waning, as seen in the latest satellite image from the U.S./European Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 mission.
El Niño 2015 has already created weather chaos around the world. Over the next few months, forecasters expect the United States to feel its impacts as well.
The latest Jason-2 image bears a striking resemblance to one from December 1997, by Jason-2's predecessor, the NASA/Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) Topex/Poseidon mission, during the last large El Niño event. Both reflect the classic pattern of a fully developed El Niño.
The images show nearly identical, unusually high sea surface heights along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific: the signature of a big and powerful El Niño. Higher-than-normal sea surface heights are an indication that a thick layer of warm water is present.
El Niños are triggered when the steady, westward-blowing trade winds in the Pacific weaken or even reverse direction, triggering a dramatic warming of the upper ocean in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Clouds and storms follow the warm water, pumping heat and moisture high into the overlying atmosphere. These changes alter jet stream paths and affect storm tracks all over the world.
This year's El Niño has caused the warm water layer that is normally piled up around Australia and Indonesia to thin dramatically, while in the eastern tropical Pacific, the normally cool surface waters are blanketed with a thick layer of warm water. This massive redistribution of heat causes ocean temperatures to rise from the central Pacific to the Americas. It has sapped Southeast Asia's rain in the process, reducing rainfall over Indonesia and contributing to the growth of massive wildfires that have blanketed the region in choking smoke.
El Niño is also implicated in Indian heat waves caused by delayed monsoon rains, as well as Pacific island sea level drops, widespread coral bleaching that is damaging coral reefs, droughts in South Africa, flooding in South America and a record-breaking hurricane season in the eastern tropical Pacific. Around the world, production of rice, wheat, coffee and other crops has been hit hard by droughts and floods, leading to higher prices.
In the United States, many of El Niño's biggest impacts are expected in early 2016. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration favor an El Niño-induced shift in weather patterns to begin in the near future, ushering in several months of relatively cool and wet conditions across the southern United States, and relatively warm and dry conditions over the northern United States.
While scientists still do not know precisely how the current El Niño will affect the United States, the last large El Niño in 1997-98 was a wild ride for most of the nation. The "Great Ice Storm" of January 1998 crippled northern New England and southeastern Canada, but overall, the northern tier of the United States experienced long periods of mild weather and meager snowfall. Meanwhile, across the southern United States, a steady convoy of storms slammed most of California, moved east into the Southwest, drenched Texas and — pumped up by the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico — wreaked havoc along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Florida.
"In 2014, the current El Niño teased us — wavering off and on," said Josh Willis, project scientist for the Jason missions at JPL. "But in early 2015, atmospheric conditions changed, and El Niño steadily expanded in the central and eastern Pacific.  Although the sea surface height signal in 1997 was more intense and peaked in November of that year, in 2015, the area of high sea levels is larger. This could mean we have not yet seen the peak of this El Niño."
During normal, non-El Niño conditions, the amount of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific is so large that sea levels are about 20 inches (50 centimeters) higher in the western Pacific than in the eastern Pacific. "You can see it in the latest Jason-2 image of the Pacific," said Willis. "The 8-inch [20-centimeter] drop in the west, coupled with the 10-inch [25-centimeter] rise in the east, has completely wiped out the tilt in sea level we usually have along the equator."
The new Jason-2 image shows that the amount of extra-warm surface water from the current El Niño (depicted in red and white shades) has continuously increased, especially in the eastern Pacific within 10 degrees latitude north and south of the equator. In the western Pacific, the area of low sea level (blue and purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage. In the white areas, the sea surface is between 6 and 10 inches (15 to 25 centimeters) above normal, while in the red areas, it is about 4 inches (10 centimeters) above normal. The green areas indicate normal conditions. The height of the ocean water relates, in part, to its temperature, and is an indicator of the amount of heat stored in the ocean below.
Within this area, surface temperatures are greater than 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius) in the central equatorial Pacific and near 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 degrees Celsius) off the coast of the Americas. This El Niño signal encompasses a surface area of 6 million square miles (16 million square kilometers) — more than twice as big as the continental United States.
While no one can predict the exact timing or intensity of U.S. El Niño impacts, for drought-stricken California and the U.S. West, it's expected to bring some relief.
"The water story for much of the American West over most of the past decade has been dominated by punishing drought," said JPL climatologist Bill Patzert. "Reservoir levels have fallen to record or near-record lows, while groundwater tables have dropped dangerously in many areas. Now we're preparing to see the flip side of nature's water cycle — the arrival of steady, heavy rains and snowfall."
In 1982-83 and 1997-98, large El Niños delivered about twice the average amount of rainfall to Southern California, along with mudslides, floods, high winds, lightning strikes and high surf. But Patzert cautioned that El Niño events are not drought busters. "Over the long haul, big El Niños are infrequent and supply only seven percent of California's water," he said.
"Looking ahead to summer, we might not be celebrating the demise of this El Niño," cautioned Patzert. "It could be followed by a La Niña, which could bring roughly opposite effects to the world's weather."
La Niñas are essentially the opposite of El Niño conditions. During a La Niña episode, trade winds are stronger than normal, and the cold water that normally exists along the coast of South America extends to the central equatorial Pacific. La Niña episodes change global weather patterns and are associated with less moisture in the air over cooler ocean waters. This results in less rain along the coasts of North and South America and along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and more rain in the far Western Pacific.
El Niño events are part of the long-term, evolving state of global climate, for which measurements of sea surface height are a key indicator.

Links

• El Niño images
• Latest El Niño forecast
• Animation of the evolution of the 2015 and 1997 El Niños
• How NASA studies El Niño
• NASA's satellite altimetry programs
• NASA's Earth science activities

Switzerland Has Warmest December Ever As Average Temperatures Rise 3.4c

The Guardian

The country that founded winter tourism has seen the mildest end to the year since records began 150 years ago with ski resort owners set to suffer

Tourists ski on a thin layer of snow in Leysin, Switzerland during the country's warmest December on record. Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images

Switzerland has experienced its warmest December since the country that founded winter tourism began keeping records 150 years ago.
Clear skies and dry ground have seen the Alpine nation end the year 3.4C above the long-term historical average for December, a climatologist for the federal office of meteorology and climatology (MeteoSwiss) said on Monday.
"There's no doubt about it," Stephan Bader said. "It's the warmest December in our recorded measurements dating back to 1864 – clearly. And it's especially pronounced at higher altitudes."
The dry warmth and slopes bereft of snow have hurt resort owners and ski lift operators, who are already contending with Switzerland's strong currency discouraging foreign visitors.
MeteoSwiss earlier this month said it expected 2015 to break the annual record for the third time in just a handful of years.
Globally, this year will be the warmest on record and 2016 could be even warmer due to the El Niño weather pattern, the World Meteorological Organization said last month. It warned that inaction on climate change could see global average temperatures rise by 6C or more.
It came as climate scientists in France said that this year's El Niño was the strongest ever measured, surpassing the one in 1997-98, both in terms of ocean surface temperature – up by more than 3C (5.4F) - and the surface area affected.
"It is probably the most powerful in the last 100 years," said Jerome Lecou, a climate expert at the French weather service Meteo France, noting that accurate measurements have only existed since the mid-20th century.
As was true in 1998, this year's super El Nino will have contributed to making 2015 the warmest on record, worldwide.
But the reverse may also be true, with climate change boosting the power of cyclical El Nino events.
"If you add the background global warming to natural weather phenomena, there's a tendency to break records left and right," Le Treut told AFP.

Links

• Analysis UK floods and extreme global weather linked to El Niño and climate change
• From Paraguay to the US, Australia to Spain, El Niño brings Christmas chaos
• Daffodils in bloom, the warmest ever December: how worrying is the world's strange weather?
• 2016 set to be hottest year on record globally
• Record US temperatures are work of El Niño and polar vortex, experts say
• Climate change makes past five-year period the warmest on record: WMO
• Record El Niño set to cause hunger for 10 million poorest, Oxfam warns

More Americans Were Killed In Christmas Weekend Storms This Year Than In Islamic Extremist Attacks Since 9/11

Salon - Ben Norton

Extreme and deadly weather over Christmas weekend shows Sanders is right: Climate change is the gravest threat

Lightning illuminates a house after a tornado touched down in Jefferson County, Ala., Friday, Dec. 25, 2015. (Credit: AP/Butch Dill)

When asked in the first Democratic presidential debate what he considers to be the greatest threat to national security, Sen. Bernie Sanders insisted it is climate change.

“The scientific community is telling us that if we do not address the global crisis of climate change, transform our energy system away from fossil fuel to sustainable energy, the planet that we’re going to be leaving our kids and our grandchildren may well not be habitable,” Sanders said in the October debate.
In the second debate, in November, Sanders stood by his statements. A month later, the dangers about which Sanders warned would come into fruition.
Over the Christmas holiday weekend, at least 43 Americans were killed in a series of extreme storms and floods.
More than 20 states from Texas to Maine had severe weather warnings. Tornadoes were spotted in 10 states. Michigan saw a tornado for the first time in the month of December.
Up to 1,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in the storms, causing millions of dollars worth of damage. In Texas alone, 600 buildings were damaged or destroyed.
Millions of people were stranded, on the busiest weekend of the year. Thousands of flights were canceled and delayed. Major highways were covered with floodwater and snow.
While this extreme weather was raging throughout the southern and midwestern U.S., states across the East Coast broke heat records. On Christmas Day, at the same moment that Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico were hit with blizzards, it was over 70 degrees in New York City.
The U.S. was not alone. As these storms were hitting the U.S., South America and the U.K. were seeing huge flooding. As many as 160,000 people were evacuated because of storms in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.
Overall, 2015 has been the hottest year ever on record. With extremely warm temperatures come extremely cold ones — and extreme weather.
Mountains of scientific studies show that extreme weather is directly linked to anthropogenic (aka, human-caused) climate change.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes that the “years 2011-2015 have been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events — especially heatwaves — influenced by climate change.”
“The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons,” WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said in a November statement. “Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached new highs… This is all bad news for the planet.”
In other words, all the facts show that Sanders is correct: Climate change is, by far, the largest threat to Americans’ security — and to the security of all other living things on this planet.
Sanders was pilloried by the American political and media establishments, nevertheless, for asserting that something seemingly abstract like climate change poses the greatest threat to the national security of not just the U.S., but also of the world as a whole.
Politicians and news outlets have constantly instead claimed that Islamic extremism poses the greatest threat to U.S. national security. Yet only a handful of Americans have been killed by self-proclaimed jihadists in the past 14 years, while climate change continues to get worse and worse.
To put things into perspective, more Americans were killed in the 2015 Christmas weekend storms than have been killed by Islamist extremists since 9/11.
Since the 9/11 attacks, 40 Americans have been killed by Islamist extremists. From 9/11 to mid-2015, just 26 Americans were killed by self-proclaimed jihadists. Fourteen more were killed in the San Bernardino massacre in December.
In the 2015 Christmas weekend storms, on the other hand, at least 43 Americans were killed.
If politicians and the media did their job — logically and sensibly governing and informing the public, not fear-mongering — this would not be a surprise. A comprehensive U.N. report released in November corroborated Sanders’ warnings. The study found that 90 percent of major disasters in the last 20 years have been weather-related. It also found that the U.S. had been hit with more weather-related disasters than any other nation, including enormous countries like China and India.
In the past 20 years, according to the U.N. report, there were at least 6,457 recorded floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts, and other disasters. 606,000 people were killed in this extreme weather. 4.1 billion more people were injured, made homeless, or left in need of emergency assistance.
The U.N. report estimated that the costs of these thousands of weather-related disasters were between $5 trillion and $6 trillion — or between  $250 billion and $300 billion every single year.
“Weather and climate are major drivers of disaster risk and this report demonstrates that the world is paying a high price in lives lost,” cautioned Margareta Wahlström, the U.N. official who oversaw the study.
The extreme weather that ravaged the U.S. over Christmas weekend is just one of these myriad disasters, yet many American politicians refuse to even acknowledge that it exists, or at least that it is caused by humans.
Nonetheless, as Sanders also stresses, this threat is not unavoidable; tangible actions can, and must, be taken here and now to mitigate it.
“Greenhouse gas emissions, which are causing climate change, can be controlled,” stressed WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud in November. “We have the knowledge and the tools to act. We have a choice. Future generations will not.”
Yet substantive action is being prevented by an obstinate reactionary political class and corporate media regime. As journalist Naomi Klein warns in her book and film “This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate,” the capitalist system, which puts profit over people, guarantees that large corporations like fossil fuel giants, not scientists, lobby for and even write environmental policies and laws based upon their bottom line, not based on what is good for the world as a whole, and for the people in it.
Much of the media fuels this problem, by giving a platform to climate science-deniers and treating people like Sanders as freakish pariahs when they point out that climate change is a much larger threat that Islamic extremism will ever be.
The U.S. political and media establishments are exponentially more interested in Islamic extremism than they are in anthropogenic climate change-induced extreme weather, but the facts indisputably show that climate change is exponentially more dangerous. Until they begin to treat it as such, there will be more and more tragedies like those millions of Americans endured over Christmas weekend.