Lethal Heating: January 2016

31/01/2016

Here Is The Weather Forecast For The Next Five Years: Even Hotter

The Guardian - Robin McKie

A sunny January day at Mudeford Sandbanks in Dorset. Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Rex/Shutterstock

Global temperatures will continue to soar over the next 12 months as rising levels of greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño combine to bring more record-breaking warmth to the planet.
According to the Met Office's forecast for the next five years, 2016 is likely to be the warmest since records began. Then in 2017 there will be a dip as the effects of El Niño dissipate and there is some planet-wide cooling.
But after that, and for the remaining three years of the decade, the world will continue to experience even more warming. The forecast, which will be released this week, is the first such report that the Met Office has issued since it overhauled its near-term climate prediction system last year.
"We cannot say exactly how warm it will get but there is no doubt the overall upward trend of temperatures will continue," said Doug Smith, a Met Office expert on long-term forecasting. "We cannot say exactly how hot 2018, 2019 or 2020 will be. That will depend on other variables. But the general trend is going to be upwards."
The current El Niño – a meteorological event in which a band of warm water develops in the Pacific Ocean around the equator – is about to peak. However, global warming associated with the event normally lags several months behind that peak and as a result, 2016 could be even hotter that 2015, the warmest year on record.
Some global warming deniers have claimed that the current El Niño alone was responsible for making last year a record one, with the effects of carbon emissions being irrelevant. But Smith rejects these claims.
"We have had El Niños before," he said. "The one in 1997-98 was particularly intense. Nevertheless, global temperatures were less then than they were in 2015 – and that is because background heating caused by increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher today than they were in 1997-98."
However, the end of the current El Niño and the possible triggering of a La Niña event – an extensive cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – is likely to bring a temporary halt to rising global temperatures, according to the Met Office.
As a result, 2017 is likely to see a dip in global temperatures. "We can be pretty sure there will be a drop that year," added Smith.
After that, temperatures could start to rise again over the rest of the decade. "Whether one of these years – 2018, 2019, 2020 – overtakes 2016 in terms of temperature is very hard to predict at this stage," said Smith. "We are looking quite far into the future, after all."
One reason for such uncertainties is a lack of precise knowledge about the heating of the oceans. "If you want to measure climate change you need to have precise information about the total energy of the planet and most of that is stored in the ocean," said Smith. "Recently temperature rises on the land slowed and people said global warming had stopped. That was never true. The ocean heat content went up all the time."
In a bid to improve information about ocean warming trends, scientists have deployed robot floats – part of the international Argo measuring system – that record temperatures and salinity to depths of 2,000 metres. Now a new generation of Argo devices is to be deployed and will reach depths of 5,000 metres. "That should provide crucial data that will help us make more accurate forecasts," added Smith.
The release of the Met Office study comes as another group of scientists revealed research that shows the last 30 years were probably the warmest Europe has experienced in more than two millennia. An international team used tree ring records and historical documents to reconstruct yearly temperatures going back 2,100 years and discovered there was no period as warm as the last 30 years.

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The State of Climate Change Litigation: Can Canada and the U.S. follow Urgenda?

Work and Climate Change Report - elizabethperry493

The landmark Urgenda decision in the Netherlands in June 2015 has ignited and re-ignited activity around the world, around the prospect of using litigation to fight climate change. "Unlawful or Above the Law? " in the CCPA Monitor (Nov/Dec. 2015) reviews the Urgenda decision in detail, and puts it in the context of Canadian policy and historical legal cases which have challenged Canada's withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol. A fuller treatment of the article, titled Canada's Failure to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions (October 31, 2015) appears on the Lawyers' Rights Watch Canada website. The authors advocate a legal challenge to Canada's GHG emissions reduction policies. Much of the legal argument is based on the concept of environmental rights as human rights; a Canadian pioneer on this issue is David R. Boyd, whose article " The Constitutional Right to a Healthy Environment" appeared in Environment Magazine in 2012. (a fuller treatment appears in his book The Environmental Rights Revolution: A Global Study of Constitutions, Human Rights and the Environment (2012)). A more recent publication by Ecojustice, The Right to a Healthy Environment: Canada's Time to Act (2015), acknowledges a large debt to Boyd's work, and the BlueDot movement of the David Suzuki Foundation works in practical ways towards the goal. In December 2015, Toronto became the 100th municipality in Canada to pass a declaration supporting its residents' right to a healthy environment. Climate Change: Tackling the Greatest Human Rights Challenge of our Time (Feb. 2015) by the Center for International Environmental Law and CARE considers how to address the issue within the UNFCCC process.

Liability
Regarding liability for climate change damages, West Coast Environmental Law in B.C. and the Vanuatu Environmental Law Association released Taking Climate Justice into our own Hands on December 8, 2015 "which explains the legal basis for climate-impacted countries to set the rules for climate damages lawsuits and how those rules can be enforced against international fossil fuel polluters." Further, the authors propose language for a Climate Compensation Act, based on common law and thus adaptable to in any country in the world. (Vanuatu released a Statement for Climate Justice in June 2015 ). A newly-launched blog series by the Alberta Environmental Law Centre promises "to provide updates on climate change law developments and include insights from our related law reform research."

Sabin Center
The Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at the Columbia Law School, New York, publishes compendium of cases in the U.S. and non-U.S., and maintains a database called Climate Change Laws of the World. In 2015, the Center published Climate Change in the Courts: An Assesment of non-U.S. climate litigation, as well as Climate Change and Human Rights 2015 (in cooperation with UNEP). The introduction states: "The question is no longer whether human rights law has anything to say about climate change, but rather what it says and how it can best be brought to bear. This report is the most detailed and comprehensive study yet undertaken of those questions".
In a November 2015 blog, "Failure to take climate action is not only morally wrong, it's illegal" Michael Burger discusses the Urgenda and Ashgar Legari case in Pakistan, and links them to current climate change cases in the United States. Most high profile of these have been led by Our Children's Trust, arguing for the right of children to live in a healthy environment. In November in Washington State, Judge Hollis Hill ruled in favour of youth, stating that "[t]he state has a constitutional obligation to protect the public's interest in natural resources held in trust for the common benefit of the people." Other cases are being pursued by Our Children's Trust in Massachusetts, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. In August 2015, Our Children's Trust filed a landmark constitutional climate change lawsuit against the federal government in the U.S. District Court of Oregon; plaintiffs include 21 young people and climate scientist Dr. James E. Hansen, serving as guardian for his granddaughter and for future generations. The complaint document is here; the plaintiffs request a court order requiring the President to implement a national plan to decrease CO2 to a safe level, defined as 350 ppm by the year 2100. In January 2016, a judge granted intervenor status in the case to the National Association of Manufacturers, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers,the American Petroleum Institute, and other energy industry groups.
Internationally, cases claiming damages from climate changes are underway in the Philippines and Peru. To keep up to date internationally, follow eLaws News by the Environmental Law Alliance Worldwide (ELAW), who have also published Holding Corporations Accountable for Damaging the Climate (2014). The Center for International Environmental Law also focuses on climate liability and climate justice.

The Digital Divide: A Challenge To Overcome In Tackling Climate Change

World Bank - John Roome

Students from Tonga's Tailulu College making the most of new high-speed broadband services at 2013 World Telecommunication and Information Society Day celebrations in the the Tongan capital, Nuku'alofa. Nukua'lofa, Tonga. Photo: Tom Perry / World Bank

Try to imagine a world without the Internet.
Impossible, isn't it?
Over the past 25 years, the Internet has become the nervous system of our society, interconnecting all the different parts of our everyday lives. Our social interactions, ways of doing business, traveling and countless other activities are supported and governed by this technology.
At this very moment, just over three billion people are connected to the Internet, 105 billion emails are being sent, two million blog posts have just been written (including this one) and YouTube has collected four billion views. These numbers give you a glimpse of the extent to which humanity is intimately and deeply dependent on this technology.
The digital revolution has changed the daily lives of billions of people. But what about the billions who have been left out of this technological revolution?
This and many other questions have been addressed in the just released 2016 World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends, which examines how the Internet can be a force for development, especially for poor people in developing countries.

A striking contradiction
In many developing countries, more families now own a mobile phone than have access to electricity or clean water. No major technology has reached more people in such a short time but, unfortunately, there's still a significant digital divide between the poor and the wealthy parts of the global population when it comes to Internet access. Perhaps not surprising that the same digital divide has an impact on the ability of developing countries to deal with the impact of climate change.
According to our recently released Report, Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty, . Connectivity is therefore a fundamental part of the equation for protecting poor people from climate change.

Making the difference on the ground
We already know that greater connectivity in vulnerable countries is crucial for ensuring access to information before, during and after a disaster. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery has developed a wide array of tools for disaster risk management (DRM), and they rely heavily on the Internet's infinite capabilities.
The GFDRR's Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI) is helping countries to set up open disaster information platforms. Through the GFDRR's risk identification efforts, like OpenDRI, over 160 million people in 60 countries have gained improved access to risk information, and 1300 new datasets are now freely available to the public. Digital technologies also allow us to use innovative approaches to disaster risk management such as crowdsourcing and social data mining, which can expand the information base rapidly and cheaply. These digital approaches can also facilitate closer collaboration between all parts of the government, enable fuller integration of public and private services, and allow greater involvement on the part of the public.
The Flood Tags project , for example, is developing a tool to harness data collected via Twitter for on-the-ground flood observations. Such mining of social data can give us a constant and up-to-the-minute understanding of the situation during a disaster, in a way that could not be done before. Connected open-source mobile weather stations can help reduce flood damage and increase community preparedness by collecting crucial weather data and broadcasting SMS-based communications to early warning systems.
As outlined in the Shock Waves Report, another great example of how connectivity can help poor people is financial inclusion. In most developing countries, poor people have less access to financial tools than the rest of the population, often forcing them to save "in kind." Thanks to mobile banking, it is now possible to provide convenient and affordable financial services to those living in rural areas, reducing the vulnerability of poor families. And that matters. For instance, changes in rainfall patterns can mean farmers may have to adjust their practices or need to invest in new machinery and seeds, or possibly learn new techniques. Without access to credit, these measures may be unaffordable, and they could become locked into activities with declining productivity and income.

Moving ahead
As underlined in the World Development Report 2016: Digital Dividends, more investments are needed if we are to boost our efforts to close the digital divide and make the Internet universal, affordable, open, and safe. Equally we know solving the "climate puzzle" will take a vast array of resources and forward-thinking solutions. The Internet is, without any doubt, the tool that will best allow us to connect, share information and gather collective intelligence in the years to come.

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30/01/2016

Climate Change 2016: Investors Vow To Pour Trillions Of Dollars Into Clean Energy Transition

International Business Times - Maria Gallucci

Wind turbines are pictured at a wind farm in Penonome, Panama, Nov. 10, 2015. Photo: Carlos Jasso/Reuters

The wave of optimism that followed last month’s climate change deal in Paris is wending its way down Wall Street. Investors and financiers meeting in New York this week vowed to harness their trillions of dollars in collective wealth to develop clean energy projects and curb the planet’s carbon emissions.
Whether they actually deliver on that promise could mean the difference between winning and losing the fight against climate change. Only with a dramatic spike in spending — and a total shift away from fossil fuel investments — can countries have a shot at avoiding dangerous levels of global warming, according to policy leaders and climate experts speaking at the Investor Summit on Climate Risk at the United Nations headquarters Wednesday.
“We have the momentum with us. We are winning. But we need you,” former U.S. Vice President Al Gore told a group of over 500 investors, pension fund managers, bankers and business executives over lunch. “This is a moment of extraordinary hope, because the investor community is moving — because the business community is real.”
The financial sector’s participation is considered critical for ensuring the goals of the Paris climate conference are actually achieved. Last December, the leaders of nearly 200 nations agreed to limit the rise of global average temperatures to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-Industrial levels.
To hit that target, the world must invest at least $12.1 trillion in renewable electricity — including solar and wind power, battery storage and energy efficiency — within the next 25 years, analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in a new report. So far, countries are on track to spend $6.9 trillion by 2040, resulting in an investment gap of $5.2 billion, by BNEF’s estimate. Investments in emissions-free vehicles, alternative fuels and sustainable-agriculture practices will add trillions more to the total.

Investors and fund managers at the even pledged to plug that funding hole by backing more renewable energy projects and revisiting their investments in fossil fuel companies or energy-intensive sectors.
“We want to be part of closing that gap,” Thomas DiNapoli, the New York State comptroller, told reporters at the U.N. headquarters. He noted the state this month launched a 10-year, $5 billion Clean Energy Fund to install more solar and wind power in New York. “Investors have put the word out that we’re looking to put more money into these kinds of opportunities, so the opportunities are coming to us,” he said.
The financial industry has transformed from a reluctant bystander on the topic of climate change to an active participant in the past few years.
In the run-up to the Paris climate summit, six major U.S. banks urged world leaders to adopt policies that “recognize the cost of carbon” and “drive innovation in low-carbon energy.” Large pension funds from California to Norway are stripping their portfolios of risky, high-carbon coal companies. Late last year, the first “fossil-free” exchange-traded fund was launched on the New York Stock Exchange. The ETF includes only companies with cleaner-than-average carbon footprints.
Motivations are mostly economic. If countries adopt policies to reduce emissions to nearly zero this century, those who heavily support coal, oil and natural gas will see their returns evaporate. The effects of climate change itself — from rising sea levels to enduring droughts and extreme storms — threaten to disrupt production and trade flows, and drain global economic growth.
Yet for all the conviction and enthusiasm at Wednesday’s summit, the path for delivering a clean energy transformation remains largely uncertain. In many markets around the world, petroleum-based fuels and electricity from coal and natural gas remain cheaper and easier to access than cleaner alternatives. Most investors generally prefer to stick with the safe bets, rather than testing the waters with new financing tools like “green bonds,” or carbon-free investment funds.
Christiana Figueres, the U.N. climate chief, outlined two broad steps that could clear some of those roadblocks: putting a global price on carbon dioxide emissions and compelling companies to publicly disclose more information on how climate regulations could threaten their bottom lines

Christiana Figueres, the U.N. climate chief, outlined two broad steps that could clear some of those roadblocks: putting a global price on carbon dioxide emissions and compelling companies to publicly disclose more information on how climate regulations could threaten their bottom lines. U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres, center, celebrates the historic adoption of a global climate change deal in Paris, Dec. 12, 2015, with Laurence Tubiana, left, the French ambassador for the international climate negotiations, and Laurent Fabius, right, the foreign affairs minister and president-designate of COP21. Photo: Francois Guillot/AFP/Getty Images

“Both of those brought together will be incredible enablers of the speed of transformation,” she said during a panel.
Pricing carbon emissions would effectively penalize polluters and make it more expensive to extract or consume oil, coal and natural gas. Renewable energy, as a result, would gain a competitive price advantage.
About 40 nations and 23 cities, states and regions have adopted or are starting to adopt a price on carbon, either via a direct tax on emissions or through a cap-and-trade system. California and nine East Coast states have cap-and-trade markets in place, although efforts to adopt a national scheme resoundingly failed during the first Obama administration. Exxon Mobil and other energy companies have adopted an internal carbon price to help determine the long-term viability of their exploration projects.
Betty Yee, the California state controller, said a universal price on carbon would make it less risky for the state’s investment funds to direct their dollars to clean energy projects. The California State Teachers’ Retirement System has a goal to invest $3.7 billion in clean energy by 2019. But that amount could reach $9.5 billion under a carbon price, Yee said.
While the policy has gained momentum in the wake of the Paris agreement, the plunge in oil and gas prices over the past year could derail some of those efforts, energy analysts said. Policymakers and the broader public may be less inclined to support regulations that drive up prices when they’re enjoying cheaper gasoline and heating fuel.
“For the clean energy sector, sustained low oil and gas prices are concerning, there’s no question,” said Michael Liebreich, founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance and chairman of its advisory board.
The push for increased public disclosures is also gathering support from global business leaders and shareholder activists. Proponents say boosting climate disclosures could steer more dollars toward cleaner energy projects by making investors better informed of the risks of investing in fossil fuels.
“What banks and financial institutions choose to finance will make an enormous difference in how people go about getting their energy,” Mary Schapiro, former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said during a panel.

A tractor trailer delivers a truckload of coal to Arch Coal Terminals, June 3, 2014, in Cattletsburg, Kentucky. Photo: Luke Sharrett/Getty Images

Schapiro adopted the 2010 SEC guidance that requires publicly traded companies to inform investors of their climate risks. She now serves on the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures, a new initiative of the Financial Stability Board led by Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire founder of Bloomberg LP and three-term mayor of New York. The task force aims to develop consistent voluntary guidelines for companies providing information to lenders, insurers, investors and other stakeholders.
Yet guidelines and other measures have their limits. A New York investigation into Peabody Energy last year found the St. Louis coal giant, despite the SEC guidance, had not been forthright with investors and regulators about the threats to its business that the company acknowledged behind closed doors.
Peabody’s shares have fallen nearly 96 percent in the past year to around $4 a share as the industry has grappled with rising debt, plunging coal prices and softening demand from the power and steelmaking sectors. The Dow Jones U.S. coal market index has plunged 80 percent in the past year and 95 percent since 2011. In an agreement with New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, Peabody agreed to disclose more details about the financial risk it faces from climate change policies and other environmental issues that could limit demand for its coal.
“Understanding those risks is important for investors in decisions about where to allocate capital,” Schapiro said. “Without disclosure you can have no understanding.”
During his impassioned lunch speech, Gore argued that backing clean energy would not only help investors manage their financial risks but also transform the global economy.
He likened the push to invest in lower-carbon energy systems to the industrial expansion that arose in the 1940s during World War II. Clean energy transformation could catapult the global economy by creating jobs and boosting production in the same way the war machine boosted the world from the depths of the Great Depression, Gore said.
“The transition to a low-carbon economy is the greatest opportunity we have to lift the global economy in a sustainable way,” he said.

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Paris Agreement ‘Decisive Turning Point’ On Climate Change, Says New UN Senior Adviser

UN News Centre

Senior Adviser to the Secretary-General on Climate Change Janos Pasztor. UN Photo/Mark Garten

Less than two months after 196 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, the global community is already seeing signs of it being a decisive turning point, according to a senior UN official dealing with climate issues.
A month and a half since 196 parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, the global community is already seeing signs of it being a decisive turning point, according to a senior UN official dealing with climate issues.
"Much has been happening since Paris – the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2015 was the hottest year on record, not just by a little but by a lot," Janos Pasztor, who was today appointed as Senior Adviser to the Secretary-General on Climate Change, told reporters at a briefing in New York.
For the past year, Mr. Pasztor had been leading the UN's climate change efforts as Assistant Secretary-General on Climate Change, working towards last December's 21st United Nations climate change conference (COP21).
Recalling that UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has invited world leaders to a signing ceremony on 22 April – which coincides with International Mother Earth Day – the climate advisor noted that it will be the first day the Agreement is open for formal signatures.
He said Mr. Ban is urging countries to quickly ratify the agreement so it can enter into force as soon as possible, adding that the event will also be an opportunity to discuss efforts to implement national climate plans, known as INDCs, and to generally "maintain the momentum of the action agenda."
Meanwhile, he underlined the Secretary-General's recent call for a doubling of investments in clean energy by 2020, which he said was greeted "very positively" by many investors.
"The Paris Agreement sent a clear message to markets and investors that it's time to get serious about climate change. We're now seeing evidence that the signal has been received loud and clear," Mr. Pasztor stressed.
Meanwhile, in a statement issued by the UN Spokesperson's Office, Mr. Ban expressed his deep gratitude for Mr. Pasztor's "dedicated service and leadership" over the past quarter of a century with the world body on the key global challenges of climate change, energy and sustainability.
"In his new role as Senior Adviser to the Secretary-General on Climate Change, Mr. Pasztor will support efforts of the Secretary-General to mobilize world leaders and all sectors of society to implement the landmark Paris Agreement," the statement indicated.

Link

Global investors must play full role in shifting world to clean energy, says UN chief

29/01/2016

Australian Coalmines Are One Of Riskiest Investments In The World – Report

The Guardian - Michael Slezak

Oxford University research also finds Australian, Chinese and US coal-fired power stations are the most vulnerable to environmental dangers

In 2014 the city of Linfen, in Shanxi province, China, was listed as the most polluted city on Earth. Australian, US and Chinese coal-fired power stations are the most vulnerable to environmental risks for investors. Photograph: Wu Hong/EPA

Australian thermal coalmines are some of the riskiest in the world for investors because of their exposure to environmental dangers, according to a report from Oxford University.
The report – which was supported by Norges Bank Investment Management, managers of Norway's government pension fund, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund – also found that Australian, Chinese and US coal-fired power stations were the most vulnerable to environmental risks.
The researchers assessed the assets of the top 100 coal-fired utilities and top 20 thermal coalmining companies for their exposure to a range of environmental risks, including climate-change policies, water stress, air pollution and competition from renewables and gas.
Ben Caldecott , the lead author of the report, said its purpose was to provide information for investors, the broader public and the companies.
"Not all companies have the same levels of risk exposure and it is important to understand the differences in order to manage risk, to prompt engagements with company management, or to decide whether to divest," he said.
Caldecott said the findings meant investors should be very cautious about supporting projects associated with thermal coalmines in Australia, such as Adani's Carmichael mega-mine and the Shenhua Watermark mine.
Australian mines had a "high" level of risk associated with their unusual reliance on exporting coal, the report found. Australia exports more than three times as much coal as it consumes locally, and so relies on the global market, where demand is falling.
Tim Buckley, from the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said the failing global demand was under-appreciated in Australia.
"We only export to the extent that someone wants our product," he said. "And when Indian imports dropped 34% year-on-year and Chinese imports dropped by 31%, the two biggest importers of coal are fundamentally moving away from imported coal."
Australian mines were also rated as facing a "high" level of risk associated with potential environmental regulation and the impact of protests and activism.
Buckley said the export market was shrinking, partly because of the competition faced by renewables.
That was reflected in the report's analysis of risks facing coal-fired power utilities, where competition from renewables, along with lower electricity use and strong evidence of a "utility death spiral", was assessed as increasing risks of investment in Australia.
A utility death spiral occurs when sources of power such as rooftop solar leave fewer people sharing the cost of maintaining the traditional electricity grid, pushing its cost up, thereby making rooftop solar even more competitive.
"A large country with dispersed populations, plentiful sun and falling electricity demand spells the perfect storm for Australian utilities," the report said.
US coal power faced a similar degree of environmental-related risk, but from slightly different sources. Their utilities face stiff competition from gas and government policies supporting renewables. Along with Chinese coal-powered utilities, those of the US and Australia faced the highest degree of environmental-related risk.
The researchers calculated the risks posed to each company by collecting all the information they could about the companies' assets, rather than just relying on corporate reporting. They analysed satellite imagery of the assets to determine their precise locations, and sometimes the technology they employed.
Caldecott compared the lack of easily accessible information with that which allowed the 2008 financial crisis to occur.
"Investors have almost no idea about the real environmental performance of companies they own," Caldecott said.
"You actually need to interrogate the exposure of individual assets within a company portfolio, in the same way that investors should have paid more attention to individual mortgages in the mortgage-backed securities and collateralised debt obligations that caused the financial crisis."

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The Power of Women: Combating Blizzards, Droughts and the Changing Climate

Huffington Post - Lorena Aguilar

In the past seven days, the east coast of the United States was hammered with one of the biggest snowstorms it has ever seen and a breaking report was published stating that 2015 broke records as hottest year in history by about 0.14°C. All around us, extreme weather is intensifying and climate change is finally being recognized as one of the most serious threats of this century -- but a clear path to mitigating the challenges of a warming planet remains unseen. This means an uncertain future for those who are least resilient to impacts, have the fewest resources to cope, and have limited protection from ever increasing climate-related threats.
At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December, 195 countries adopted the first ever universal, legally binding global climate deal that aims to limit global warming to below 2°C. The Paris Agreement also provides a framework to support those in developing countries that stand on the front lines of climate change. This is especially important for the women and girls in every region who are experiencing the most severe impacts of climate change due to the social, economic and political barriers they face to protect themselves, their families, and their communities and to build resilience to the impacts of climate change. The new Agreement does partially reflect the importance of gender equality: the preamble includes gender equality and empowerment of women; adaptation and capacity building articles include that action must be gender-responsive; and implementation of the decision is meant to take into account gender balance. Unfortunately, however, other essential texts--such as gender equity with respect to finance and technology needs assessments--were lost in the last rounds of intense negotiations, meaning that a true paradigm shift towards gender equality, and understanding the intrinsic importance of it in relation to fighting the climate battle, is still needed. Gender must be an integral thread woven throughout all parts of climate change policy, planning and programming.The President of Chile, Michelle Bachelet, summarized it best, saying: "Climate change isn't only an environmental issue it is a social problem, perhaps it is the greatest political issue that will bring us together in the next few years. As we aspire to achieve climate justice, we must consider the inclusion of the gender dimension because women are victims, but they can also be a significant part of the solution to the climate issue." [From translation]
It is important to highlight the invaluable contributions, expertise, and perspectives of the women who participated in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. The countries that had women as heads of delegations, as well as Parties with gender expertise, such as Chile, Mexico, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic, took the lead in ensuring that social concerns, gender equality and human rights--were fully addressed in the Paris Framework. It is also fundamental to recognize the role and negotiation skills exhibited by the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, Ms. Christiana Figueres, at COP21. Undeniably, she is one of the driving forces behind the gender-responsive elements of the Paris Agreement.

GGO team participates at COP21

The power of women's leadership has proven true in other environmental arenas outside of the climate change meetings. For instance, countries with higher female parliamentary representation are more likely to set aside protected land areas, as a study of 25 developed and 65 developing countries reveals; and to ratify international environmental treaties, according to a study of 130 countries. In addition, of the 49 countries that reduced carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2007, 14 had a very high Human Development Index rank, specifically 10 of which with higher than average female parliamentary representation (Human Development Report 2011). Another telling example occured this past Tuesday, when the US Senate reconvened after one of the biggest snowstorms that Washington, D.C. has ever seen and the only people present were women (floor managers, pages, parliamentarians). Speaking about this incident, Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski reminds us of the power of women in difficult circumstances: "Something is genuinely different, and I think it's genuinely fabulous. So perhaps it just speaks to the heartiness of women, that you put on your boots and put your hat on and get out, slog through the mess that is out there."
Inclusive and equitable climate policies and programs can deliver social and economic development co-benefits and will support steps towards sustainable development. Very often initiatives designed without a clear understanding of the realities of people's lives, including the social and cultural structures that can ignore and sideline women and girls, are unlikely to achieve their intended objectives. For this reason, the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Global Gender Office (GGO) has created a suite of knowledge products covering a range of issues that provide policymakers and practitioners information, best practices, and tangible strong examples of gender-responsive climate change so that they can incorporate these lessons into their work.
We at the GGO believe that the Paris Agreement stands as a critical turning point for the global community in its recognition of the importance to act on climate change. We are grateful that it does include indications of its growing understanding of the vulnerability of women in many regions of the world and the critical need to integrate women, their empowerment, and gender equality concerns proactively. And ultimately, we look forward to future opportunities to support implementation for gender-responsive climate change policies and projects.

Soil Productivity Cut By Climate Change, Making Societies More Marginal: Studies

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Ethiopia, one fragile dryland nation, is in the grip of its worst drought in 50 years. Photo: Jay Court

The health of the world's soils hinges on the abundance and diversity of the microbes and fungi they contain, and environmental changes including from global warming will undermine their ability to support humans and other species, according to two new studies.
While animal and plant diversity has long been understood to be important, the multiple roles of soils – from the decomposition of organic matter to nutrient cycling and carbon fixing – have been less researched.
One of the studies, published in Nature Communications on Thursday, examined microbial diversity in 78 drylands on all inhabited continents and 179 sites in Scotland. It found that the loss of varieties – such as from climate change increasing arid zones – undermined the services the soils provided.

A property at Brewarrina in October 2013: as much as 75 per cent of Australia is arid. Photo: THE LAND

"As the aridity of soils goes up, the microbial diversity and abundance is reduced," Brajesh Singh, a professor at Western Sydney University and an author of both papers, said. "As the soils' multi-functions are reduced, so there are social and economic consequences."
The second paper, published recently in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal found the area of the world's drylands – where rainfall and evaporation rates are roughly balanced – is increasing.
Now covering about 41 per cent of the land surface – and home to a similar share of the world's population – these drylands will increase by at least a tenth by 2100 because of overgrazing, erosion and climate change.

Species other than humans will also be affected by less productive lands. Photo: Supplied

"Ninety per cent of human settlements in dryland are based in developing countries, posing serious challenges to food security, carbon sequestration and desertification," Professor Singh said.
David Eldridge, a University of NSW-based arid zone specialist and a co-author of the PNAS study, said there is already evidence of "a consistent decline" in the soil microbes and fungi in many regions.
Drylands account for as much as three-quarters of Australia and the functions of soils, including their ability to hold water and withstand erosion, will be affected by diversity loss within them, he said.
Severe degradation of as little as 10-20 per cent of dryland would have an impact on some 250 million people as well as harming the viability of many other species that rely on soil health, from plants to the animals that eat them, Professor Singh said.
While rising carbon dioxide levels – such as from burning fossil fuels – could spur plant growth, such an outcome required available nutrients and water. Those elements, particularly water, that may become less available with climate change, he said.

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28/01/2016

Australia Sinks On 'Most Credible' Environmental Index In The World

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Australia ranks 150th out of 180 nations surveyed by Yale University when it comes to carbon emission trends from the power sector. Photo: Fairfax Media

Australia's global ranking has dived on an international survey that Environment Minister Greg Hunt had described as "the most credible, scientifically based" analysis in the world.
The 2016 Environmental Performance Index, released every two years by Yale University in the US, has dropped Australia's ranking by 10 places to 13th out of 180 nations in its latest update.

Environment Minister Greg Hunt has been a fan of the Yale index. Photo: Andrew Meares

Australia was ranked top for water and sanitation, and for exposure to environmental risks. It achieved only mid-rankings for biodiversity, agriculture, and forestry.
The country's worst performance, though, came in the climate and energy category, where Australia was ranked 150th for its trend in carbon emissions for electricity generation.
Yale said that, among wealthy nations, only Saudi Arabia had a lower ranking than Australia for the decade to 2012.

The survey, which benchmarks nations according to their economic peers, follows a recent report showing investor confidence in Australia's large-scale renewable energy industry had evaporated because of uncertainty in the sector.
Australia's greenhouse gases from its power sector jumped by 3.8 million tonnes in 2015 alone, and were 5.1 per cent higher than in June 2014 before the Abbott government scrapped the carbon tax, energy consultants Pitt & Sherry said.
Fairfax Media sought comment from Mr Hunt's office.
Mr Hunt had previously praised the Yale index, telling the ABC TV 7.30 program last November that it was "the most credible, scientifically-based, hard data-based analysis in the world".
The Yale report comes as Labor began consultations on Wednesday with industries, employers, unions and community groups on how Australia can move towards zero-net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and meet a goal of sourcing half of all electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
The 40 or so meetings are aimed at establishing "a solid framework" of Labor's climate policy ahead of this year's federal elections, a spokesman said.
Mark Butler, Labor's shadow environment minister, said the government had signed up to the Paris climate agreement last month but had no realistic mechanism to reach the pledge of reducing 2005-level emissions by 26-28 per cent by 2030. He described its $2.55 billion Direct Action plan as a "fraud".
"The Yale report states that over the last decade 'nearly every country has improved it's [index] score' - every country that is except Australia," Mr Butler told Fairfax Media. "The Turnbull Government is taking Australia backwards at a shocking pace."
Larissa Waters, the Greens deputy leader and environment spokeswoman, said the government's "inaction on global warming is shameful, especially when compared to other countries".
"International report after international report shows Australia is lagging on cutting climate pollution and yet the Liberal government is sticking with Tony Abbott's useless climate policies that leave us missing out on the trade and job opportunities in renewable energy," Senator Waters said.
Yale said that Nordic nations dominated the environment rankings at the start of 2016, with Finland, Iceland, Sweden and Denmark claiming the top four positions.
"Trends suggest improvement in many areas, yet progress remains slow, and some trends are overshadowed by other, more troubling findings," the report's executive summary said.
"The world's nations protect more marine habitat than ever, for instance, yet fish stocks are declining."

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Australia Drops 10 Spots In Greg Hunt's Most Trusted Climate Rankings

The Guardian - Michael Slezak

Environment minister has described Yale’s environmental performance index as ‘the most credible ... in the world’ but Australia performs badly in latest ratings

Emissions pour from a factory chimney at a Sydney industrial park. Australia is ranked 150th out of 180 countries for its trend in carbon emissions each kilowatt hour. Photograph: Tim Wimborne/Reuters

The index that Greg Hunt used to defend Australia’s record on climate change has placed the country lower in its rankings, leaving only Saudi Arabia with a worse ranking among wealthy nations in some categories.
Yale’s environmental performance index ranks countries’ performance in protecting human health and ecosystems, and looks at nine areas including air quality, climate and energy, forests and water resources.
When Australia’s climate change policies were questioned in November, the environment minister relied on the index to defend its record. “The Yale environment performance index, the most credible, scientifically based, hard data-based analysis in the world, ranks Australia number three of 178 countries in terms of our environmental performance,” he told ABC’s 730.
The index’s report, released this week, shows Australia has dropped 10 places overall, leaving it at 13 out of 180 countries examined.
It performed worst in the climate and energy category. It was ranked 150th for its trend in carbon emissions each kilowatt hour, leaving only Saudi Arabia behind among wealthy nations. Overall in the climate and energy category, Australia was ranked 82nd.
While global CO2 emissions appear to have dropped in 2015 for the first time during a period of economic growth, Australia’s emissions have continued to grow.
Mark Butler, Labor’s spokesman on the environment, told Fairfax Media: “The Yale report states that over the last decade ‘nearly every country has improved it’s [index] score’ – every country, that is, except Australia … The Turnbull government is taking Australia backwards at a shocking pace.”

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Key Findings 2016 Yale University Environmental Performance Index

2016 Yale University Environmental Performance Index

The Yale University Environmental Performance Index (EPI) ranks countries' performance on high-priority environmental issues in two areas: protection of human health and protection of ecosystems.
The following are key findings from the 2016 Index.
1) The world is making progress addressing some environmental issues while others have worsened considerably. A "global scorecard' (Figure 1) illustrates this progress and deterioration, showing promising trends in Health Impacts, Access to Drinking Water, and Access to Sanitation. Air Quality (NO₂) and Fisheries, however, exhibit troubling declines. Comparing relative performance across issues, the world performs poorly on Wastewater Treatment and Air Quality (PM_2.5) as well as in Carbon Intensity Trend indicators. Trends suggest improvement in many areas, yet progress remains slow, and some trends are overshadowed by other, more troubling findings. The world's nations protect more marine habitat than ever, for instance, yet fish stocks are declining. Performance among areas is linked and trends sometimes conflict, exhibiting the complexity of global environmental measurement.

2) Economic development leads to improvement in some environmental areas, yet development is also associated with increased prevalence of environmental hazards. Air and Water indicators clearly exhibit these conflicting signals. As nations have become wealthier, particularly in Asia, their governments invest in sanitation infrastructure and fewer people are exposed to unsafe water, leading to fewer deaths from waterborne illnesses. But as countries develop, increased industrial production, shipping, and automotive transportation foul the air, exposing human populations to dangerous airborne compounds. Thus, deaths attributed to air pollution have risen steadily in the past decade in step with exposure.
Air pollution is a growing global problem; worse in rapidly developing economies, like China and India, than in wealthy or very poor nations. Yet dangerous air pollution is not confined to any one country or group of countries – it is a global issue. More than 3.5 billion people, or half of the world's population, live in nations where average exposure to fine particulate matter exceeds levels the World Health Organization (WHO) considers safe (10 micrograms/m3). One-third (1.3 billion) of these people live in the East Asia and Pacific region, where in China and South Korea more than 50 percent of their populations are exposed to unsafe levels of fine particulate matter. In India and Nepal, the percentage is nearly 75 percent. In contrast, drinking water metrics have improved steadily, The number of people lacking access to clean water has been cut nearly in half from 960 million in the year 2000 to 550 million, or around 8 percent of the world's population, today.

3) When measurement is poor or not aligned with proper management, environmental and human health suffer. EPI shows that sectors with weak measurement are also areas exhibiting decline. Marine fisheries are poorly monitored, for instance, as many fleets misreport or fail to report catch data, and international policy targets are ad hoc and incomplete. It is no surprise that fish stocks around the world are in stark decline. The 2016 EPI, in collaboration with Sea Around Us – a fisheries research initiative based at the University of British Columbia – takes into account the quality of fisheries data by penalizing countries whose data are incomplete or unreliable.

4) Developing policy relevant indicators based in science is essential to appropriate measurement and management. Indicators and policy targets are too often framed by political aims rather than science. Two new EPI indicators – Species Protection and Drinking Water Quality – show how policy targets are frequently defined according to political expediency. The 2016 EPI Species Protection indicator, which relies on the Map of Life – a global database of species – measures the gap between terrestrial protected areas and actual species habitats. This gap (Figure 4) suggests that nationally designated protected areas do not always align with species preservation. Protected areas are often established on marginal lands, rather than in high-value areas where wildlife is forced out by agricultural development and human settlements.

Millennium Development Goal-7 includes an indicator that assesses Access to Drinking Water, yet this MDG metric is not optimally suited to its goal, which is for countries to increase access to "safe drinking water." The indicator used to measure the goal's progress is framed in terms of access to "improved" or "unimproved" sources, as determined by a piped (as opposed to open) water source. This metric does not say whether the water from improved sources is actually treated and safe to drink. Data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – a research organization that produces the Global Burden of Disease, a measure of death attributable to certain risk factors – reveals a radically different picture of unsafe water quality exposure than the one that MDG-7's indicators paint (Figure 5). In many countries and regions, a significant portion of 'improved' drinking water sources are untreated. These results show policy targets that are politically expedient – it is easier, after all, to measure access to "improved" and "unimproved" water than to measure water quality – but not wholly relevant to science or human health.

5) The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement specifies climate change action expected from all countries, yet solid metrics to evaluate performance remain elusive. Measuring climate change performance – that is, assessing which countries are implementing policies that result in measurable climate mitigation – is one of the most urgent challenges facing society today. The inextricable linkage between carbon and economic growth makes disentangling performance signals from emissions difficult. As a result, the 2016 EPI's Climate and Energy indicators primarily signal how countries are decarbonizing economic growth rather than whether their climate policies are having a tangible effect. These indicators cannot point to underlying drivers of decarbonization, whether they are due to economic decline or through concerted policy effort. Denmark, for instance, has made strong commitments to reduce emissions through increasing efficiency and renewable energy production. Singapore, as a result of its high urban density, has been able to lower its carbon intensity relative to economic peers over the last decade. Other countries, such as Russia, are likely overachieving compared to economic peers due to recession rather than ambitious climate efforts.

Other Conclusions
1) Data from new sources including from cutting-edge technologies help improve global monitoring of progress towards international goals, such as the SDGs, yet these innovations do not represent a policy silver bullet. The EPI uses advances in satellite technology and remote sensing, which contribute to globally comparable datasets where national governments fail to monitor or report environmental data. Satellite data is used to generate air quality and forestry metrics that are more readily comparable and comprehensive than what has emerged from previous models and national reports. These new data sources, however, are not perfect. Satellite-derived tree cover data, for instance, uses a global definition of forest cover that counts plantations and natural forest equally. Because satellites have set orbits and a limited time series, forests with slower growth and regeneration cycles may be incorrectly registered as "loss" depending on the duration of measurement. Long-term, three-year rolling averages of air quality data also result in lower exposure values than data produced by ground-based monitors.
2) Sub-national indicators often illustrate more accurate and actionable data than national level metrics. Environmental issues are rarely confined to national borders. And many environmental issues, when measured at the national level, lose local relevance. How can a single measure of air or water quality define an entire country, particularly when it is as large and diverse as the United States or Russia? The EPI's selection of the nation-state as the unit of measure is not always the best level of analysis for a particular environmental concern. In the case of Nitrogen Balance, for example, a country can exhibit areas of both excess nitrogen and nitrogen deficiency, due to soil and climatic differences. A national measure of Nitrogen Balance obscures these nuances.
3) Better environmental measurement and indicator systems are needed. Every EPI underscores this conclusion. While there has been progress in some areas of measurement, particularly with technological advances and innovations like satellite data, many environmental concerns lack comparable data to monitor extent or progress. Freshwater quality, species loss, climate adaptation, and waste management are some issues that remain absent from the EPI's evaluation because of insufficient data. Without this information, environmental management will suffer and natural systems and human health will decline. As the EPI shows, progress occurs only when measurement and management align.

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27/01/2016

How To Tell The Story Of Climate Change, In Photos

Grist - Heather Smith

An Arctic drilling protest at the White House. Payton Chung

When I started out at Grist in 2013, I covered climate change activism — which was interesting, and still is. Whether you're a fresh-faced youth from a maple syrup farm or a former hedge fund manager, trying to change the world for the better is a tricky business.
What was not interesting — what was negative interesting — was the photos. How do you represent divestment? At first, I tried to use photos from divestment-related events — which were pretty much always protests at college campuses.
ut one campus protest looks pretty much like any other campus protest. And what to do about that guy — there's always that guy — standing in middle of every shot, who's a dead ringer for Ras Trent? College students have the earnestness, the lack of dependent minors, and the flexible schedules to really accommodate protest attendance — but they are far from representative of an entire movement.
And so I fell back on stock images. Divestment was about money — so how about a tiny person sailing across a money ocean? What about a tower of money reaching up into space? Not perfect, but it would have to do. But then how to illustrate oil-by-rail? What about a new solar panel regulation ruling? Or another story about melting glaciers? Have polar bears jumped the shark?
A recent study from Climate Outreach, a British climate change communication think tank, sets out to answer just this question: What images do the best job of making climate change — which consists of difficult-to-photograph, or empathize with, changes to the troposphere — seem like a real thing that people might want to pay attention to?
To explore this question, Climate Outreach held four in-depth focus groups (two in London and two in Berlin) followed by a less in-depth online survey of 3,014 people, with participants split equally between the U.K., Germany, and the U.S. Climate Outreach showed them many, many photographs. The result: a report on what does and doesn't work for illustrating climate change, and a collection of images they consider to be ideal. Here's what the group found:

Stephen Melkisethian

No one likes pictures of protests (except for protesters)
Images of protesters had some of the lowest ratings in the survey (with some exception for the small number of study participants who considered themselves activists). "Most people do not feel an affinity with climate change protesters, so images of protests may reinforce the idea that climate change is for 'them' rather than 'us,' the Climate Outreach findings summary said. "Protest images involving people directly affected by climate impacts were seen as more authentic and therefore more compelling."

However: Not many people like posed photographs of happy children with solar panels, either
Photos with people were rated more highly than those without, especially if those people were looking directly into the camera. But of those images, spontaneous-looking photos received much higher ratings than posed ones.
For example, the photo above, of adorable children holding a banner and waving solar panels in the air got points for being cheerful, but was viewed as "gimmicky" and "staged." Same with a photo of several people watching enthusiastically while someone installed weather-stripping on a door. "I think that family needs to get out a little more," a focus group member said. An unposed photo of a man installing insulation all by himself was viewed with much more enthusiasm.
Posed pictures of politicians were the lowest-ranked photos of all. The two lowest-ranked photos in the survey were images of President Barack Obama making a speech (shown to survey responders in America) and Prime Minister David Cameron posing with a sled dog (shown to survey responders in the U.K.). An unposed photograph of Chancellor Angela Merkel looking thoughtfully at a green energy installation was slightly more favourably rated. The Climate Outreach study concludes:

Many campaigns and articles focus on climate policies, and so it is unrealistic to expect that photos should avoid politicians altogether. However if an image is designed to send a positive signal the politician should be as authentic and credible as possible — doing something useful rather than posing for a photo-opportunity — and the widespread distrust of mainstream politicians should not be underestimated. As one German discussion group participant put it, all the images of politicians "make me almost vomit."

Nothing says "this is an article about climate change" like a polar bear. Nothing makes people feel cynical like a polar bear
Classic climate change images like polar bears on melting ice both got high ratings for being easy to recognize, and low ratings from people who were tired of seeing them.

One participant (in a comment characteristic of the London and Berlin groups) said "… the polar bear … makes me angry for some reason. Not because I'm like 'oh no that's a pressing issue', but like 'oh this is so annoying' I don't want to see them again."

The few participants who were worried about the polar bear were pretty much only worried about the polar bear. "I might donate for the polar bear thingy," one participant said, "but not for global warming."

Jeff Turner

People preferred photos of climate change effects to climate change causes
A photo of a traffic jam, for example, made more sense to those surveyed than a photo of an individual car — partly because traffic jams are something that everyone hates, while many people are fond of individual cars. As one German participant put it: "[This] is not climate change because that's normal to drive a car. We can't stop that. It's normal."
There are, of course, major caveats that come with this type of research. This is a very small number of people, from a very small number of countries. It's hard to tell if an effort was made to adjust for age, income level, cultural background, or any number of things that a more comprehensive study would take into account. I also won't be likely to use their database of climate images — for one thing, you can't easily determine what's copyrighted and what's not. For another thing, while these images may have tested well, they all look like outtakes from a UNICEF brochure. But still. I am someone who spends a lot of time looking at pictures of traffic jams, polar bears, and wind turbines. Many of the study's findings resonated with me. All genres of journalism have their own special way of falling into a rut, and climate journalism is no exception. I have had those long, dark teatimes of the soul, cruising through image after image of people pointing at solar panels.
Maybe the answer is not to develop new image rules, but to try to break out of the old ones. So what if people don't like pictures of polar bears? So what if people don't like pictures of protests? I just found a picture of polar bears protesting. They are standing front of the White House, no less. I'm pretty sure one of them is taxidermied. I think I saw another one get arrested in New York a few years ago. All of these furballs are totally disobeying market research — and they totally made my day.

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