30/11/2016

Farmers Demand The Coalition Government Do More On Climate Change

FairfaxFergus Hunter

A thumping majority of Australian farmers have concluded they are witnessing the effects of climate change, urging the Coalition government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare the country for a future that is drier, less predictable and more prone to bushfires.
This is according to a survey of 1300 primary producers across states and agricultural sectors, conducted by advocacy group Farmers for Climate Action with the co-operation of the National Farmers Federation.

It found 88 per cent of respondents want rural and regional politicians to start advocating for stronger climate change action. Two thirds have seen changes in rainfall over their time on the land and half have seen an increase in droughts and floods.
Nine in 10 are concerned about damage to the climate and eight in 10 support Australia moving towards 100 per cent renewable energy.
A delegation of six farmers visited Parliament House on Monday and Tuesday to convey the findings, meeting with politicians of all persuasions to make their case for emissions reductions, global leadership and boosted research on new technology.
Derek Blomfield, a beef producer from the Liverpool Plains in Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce's New South Wales electorate, has observed increasing unreliability of weather.
He now finds managing his property more difficult and wants to see "strong leadership" from the Coalition government and thinks farmers shouldn't be scared of initiatives like emissions trading schemes and carbon taxes.
"For our industry, it's critical that we don't let this thing get out of hand. When I say for our industry, it actually means for everyone. Because we all need a farmer three times a day."
Victorian dairy farmer Karrinjeet Singh-Mahil and Liverpool Plains beef farmer Derek Blomfield at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
To  some of the MPs more sceptical of climate change, including Mr Joyce and other Nationals, "we just try and point out how critical this is for our industry," he said.
The survey found changes to rainfall had been observed by 67 per cent of respondents, more frequent and worse droughts by 47 per cent, floods by 46 per cent, increased temperatures by 42 per cent, changing planting times by 41 per cent and more frequent and worse bushfires for 22.5 per cent.
Victorian cattleman Craig Porter takes his cattle for grazing on the roadside due to the 2007 drought. Photo: Justin McManus
They were most concerned about less reliable rainfall, higher temperatures that increase evaporation, heatwaves, pollution from mining, bushfires, rising costs and invasive species.
Karrinjeet Singh-Mahil, a dairy farmer from Crossley in Victoria, wants boosted climate change research funding and improved access to the Emissions Reductions Fund for farmers to pursue new initiatives.
Dried up vineyards near Menindee, NSW hit by drought in 2016.  Photo: Edwina Pickles
"We want them to get over the ideology and to accept that change is happening, for whatever reason, and we want them to have a consistent message that it is and that it is affecting farms," she told Fairfax Media.
Ms Singh-Mahil said her property is suffering from increased erosion and pastures not surviving the season. She is satisfied with the reception from Canberra MPs, especially the understanding of those who have real experience on farms.
Climate change, which scientific consensus has found to be a unique threat driven by the human-generated increase in greenhouse gas emissions, gradually lifts air and ocean temperatures, making weather more unpredictable, raising sea levels and undermining critical environmental processes.
The average global temperature has already risen one degree celsius above pre-industrial levels and 2016 is set to knock off 2015 as the hottest year on record.

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Fossil Fuel Giants Using Questionable Deductions To Shrink Tax Bills: Auditor-General

FairfaxHeath Aston

A damning investigation has found multinational companies are claiming billions of dollars in questionable deductions while exploiting the nation's natural riches, using accounting tricks allowed to flourish under a hands-off government approach that is dudding Australian taxpayers of royalties.
And in a stunning disclosure, the probe by Auditor-General Grant Hehir found nearly two decades had passed since a federal government audited the self-assessed royalty payments from the North West Shelf, a giant project located in the lucrative oil and gas region off the West Australian coast and jointly owned by Woodside, Shell, Chevron and BHP Billiton.

How some companies cut billions off their tax bill
Underlining rising concerns over whether the $200 billion liquefied natural gas industry is paying its fair share of tax, Mr Hehir's report discovered a $5 billion bonanza of deductions claimed by the project in just one 18-month period.
Some of the Auditor-General's most damning criticism was reserved for a single $705 million cost deduction that helped reduce royalties owed to the taxpayer by $88 million. Mr Hehir argued the $705 million deduction may not have been technically valid.
Auditor-General Grant Hehir warns his review may only scratch the surface. 
The multibillion-dollar deductions - which are still being taken despite the project being fully mature after 25 years in operation - dwarf the $1.9 billion in royalties it paid in the same 18-month period.
Mr Hehir warned his review may only scratch the surface.
"There has been limited scrutiny of the claimed deductions...the available evidence indicates that the problems are much greater than has yet been quantified," he found.
Among the most concerning findings were:
  • It has been 17 years since the government audited the self-assessed royalty payments from North West Shelf;
  • One of the meters relied on to measure gas output, and therefore royalties due, was broken for five years;
  • The Royalty Schedule which governs payment calculations has not been updated in 10 years, and;
  • The West Australian government engaged audit firm Ernst & Young to conduct a 2014 "external review" of deductions even though the firm is also the long-time auditor of the North West Shelf's financial accounts.
Mr Hehir found deductible costs, which include operating and capital expenditure, depreciation and crude oil excise, can represent up to 90 per cent of the gross value of the gas produced.
"There are some significant shortcomings in the framework for calculating North West Shelf royalties," he found.
North West Shelf has already paid $8.6 million in underpaid royalties as a result of the Auditor-General's investigation.
Mr Hehir also made a withering assessment of the hands-off approach of bureaucrats in the federal Department of Industry, Innovation and Science and the state Department of Mines and Petroleum, which oversees the royalty system.
"Given the actual and potential size of allowable deductions being claimed by NWS producers on a monthly basis, it would be reasonable to expect [the departments] to have developed and implemented a robust compliance strategy and included strong controls around verifying the validity of deductions being claimed," he wrote.
He said there were no agreed procedures and no assurances sought that deductions are being claimed correctly.
Mr Hehir recommended the state and federal governments work together to ensure deductions claimed by the North West Shelf producers in 2015 are valid, as well as work to "verify the validity" of deductions claimed prior to 2014.
A Woodside spokeswoman said the company had "robust compliance processes with regard to royalty obligations" and had assisted audits in an "open, transparent and cooperative manner".
Woodside pointed to a reference in Mr Hehir's report about underpaid royalties totalling "$11.6 million" but that total was in direct relation to a 2014 external audit, which the Auditor-General described as "limited in scope".
Resource tax expert Diane Kraal, a lecturer from Monash University, said it was hard to know just how much has been lost from the North West Shelf without a forecast for how much royalty revenue had been expected.
In its response to the Auditor-General's report, the federal department agreed the system could be 'improved" but argued it was nonetheless "robust".
For historical reasons, the North West Shelf pays royalties but also comes under the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT).
Newer LNG export projects like Chevron's massive Gorgon and Wheatstone ventures are not required to pay royalties at all but are only assessed for the profits-based PRRT.
Fairfax Media has revealed over recent months that just 5 per cent of 150 oil and gas ventures are paying any PRRT, despite Australia being poised to eclipse Qatar as the world's single biggest exporter of LNG by 2020.
The industry has built up a mountainous $187 billion in exploration and development tax credits, which continue to rise sharply and will be used to insulate companies from paying PRRT for years to come.
Last week, Craig Emerson, one of the architects of the PRRT in the Hawke government backed calls for a parliamentary inquiry into why the boom in LNG exports shows no sign of delivering any meaningful contribution to the wealth of Australia.
On Monday, Greens senator Peter Whish-Wilson accused the government of getting things "arse-about" by focusing on tax paid by backpackers before the giant fossil fuel companies.
"They have been trying to penny-pinch from backpackers and some of the lowest-paid workers in the country, and yet they have been blind to potentially multi-billion-dollar rorts from massive multinational corporations," he said.

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Great Barrier Reef Suffered Worst Bleaching On Record In 2016, Report Finds

BBC News - Hywel Griffith

Warmer waters has led to the worst destruction of coral ever recorded on the Great Barrier Reef. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
Higher water temperatures in 2016 caused the worst destruction of corals ever recorded on Australia's Great Barrier Reef, a study has found.
Some 67% of corals died in the reef's worst-hit northern section, the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies report said.
The situation was better in the central section, where 6% perished, while the southern reef is in good health.
But scientists warn recovery could be difficult if climate change continues.
Coral bleaching happens when water temperatures rise for a sustained period of time.
In February, March and April, sea surface temperatures across the Great Barrier Reef were the hottest on record, at least 1C higher than the monthly average.
"Some of the initial mortality was down to heat stress," said study leader Professor Terry Hughes.
"The coral was cooked."

How bleaching occurs
Far more has been lost through gradual starvation, after the coral expelled the colourful algae zooxanthella, which turns sunlight into food.
This is what leads to the white, skeletal appearance of the coral, which is left without its main source of energy.
For three months, sea temperatures were a degree higher than average. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
The study also found that the coral which survived the bleaching have now come under greater threat from predators such as snails and crown of thorns starfish.
This year's mass bleaching was the worst-ever recorded on the Great Barrier Reef, following two previous events in 1998 and 2002.
Professor Hughes is certain that the increased water temperature is the result of carbon emissions, and warns that climate change could bring annual bleaching within 20 years.
"Most of the losses in 2016 have occurred in the northern, most pristine part of the Great Barrier Reef," he said.
"This region escaped with minor damage in two earlier bleaching events in 1998 and 2002, but this time around it has been badly affected."

Where is the damage?
One of the worst-hit areas is around Lizard Island in Far North Queensland, where around 90% of the coral has died.
Dr Andrew Hoey, whose team charted the area, said the impact was far worse than feared after an initial survey in April.
"It's devastating to get in the water somewhere you've been coming for almost 20 years, and it's just knocked it on its head," he said.
Bleaching is caused when water temperatures rise for a sustained period. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
"There's very little coral cover left there. It was dominated by the acropora - the branching corals - but we lost most of them."
Lizard Island is home to a research station, where scientists from across the world have come for decades to study marine life
One of its directors, Dr Anne Hogget, said this was by far the worst event to hit the Great Barrier Reef since she started working there in 1990.
"We had bleaching here in 2002," she said. "We thought this was bad at the time, but this has blown it completely out of the water."
She is hopeful that the reef is capable of recovery, but fears it may not be give an opportunity, as sea temperatures continue to rise.
Dr Andrew Hoey (pictured) said the loss was far worse than feared
"The trajectory is not good," Dr Hogget explained.
"We keep pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and this happened absolutely because of that."

What happens next?
On the central and southern parts of the Great Barrier Reef, where bleaching was not as prevalent, there is concern that it has been misreported, with one magazine even publishing an obituary of the reef earlier this year.
Tourism operators like Michael Healey from the Quicksilver Group are keen to point out that many sites were unaffected, but there is concern for the reef's long term health.
"Without the Great Barrier Reef, we wouldn't survive," he said.
"So it is absolutely of the utmost importance that we ensure that our politicians and everyone else in our community and around the world are doing what they can."
ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
The Australian Government has published a long-term sustainability plan for the reef, and pledged financial support for research into coral bleaching.
The 2050 plan identifies the need to help make the reef more resilient to climate change in the future, while trying to lower carbon emissions.
Mr Healy argued even those not financially involved had a stake in the reef.
"I'd say every human on the planet does," he said.

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29/11/2016

Bigger, Hotter ‘Firestorms To Become The New Normal’ In Australia

NEWS.com.au - Debra Killalea

The Glen Cromie Caravan Park in Drouin pictured during the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday bushfires.
MEGAFIRES will become the new normal with the intensity and frequency of deadly disasters increasing as Australia becomes hotter and drier.
And fire crews will struggle to contain the firestorms which will not only claim more lives but destroy ecosystems and property while wreaking havoc and destruction in the process.
The dire prediction, forecast in journal Climatic Change, found the time between such megafires, also called firestorms, is shrinking while the conditions under which they develop are worsening.
In ‘Natural hazards in Australia: Extreme bushfire’, published last month, researchers also warn that by 2070 megafires in Australia are 30 per cent more likely to occur.
Australian Firefighters Climate Alliance spokesman Jim Casey said the reality was this phenomenon was becoming the “new normal” and it was the frightening future the country faced.
Mr Casey said the megafires not only destroyed everything in their path but became so fierce crews could do nothing to stop them.
A CFA fire truck leaves a blaze burning near Pakenham in Bunyip State Forest, east of Melbourne, during Victoria’s Black Saturday Bushfires in February 2009. Picture: Alex Coppel Source: Supplied
“Essentially these fires are just so big and so fuel loaded they act more like a storm than a fire,” he told news.com.au.
“With shorter winters and less time to do hazard reduction burning, it creates perfect conditions for fires like this.”
While acknowledging bushfires are and will always be part of the Australian way of life, Mr Casey said megafires were a nightmare for authorities.
“Their real danger is their size, they are unfightable,” he said.
“When fire crews are faced with fire fronts stretching across 50km and it’s 10m high, the only option is to leave.”
Mr Casey, who was a candidate for The Greens at the recent federal election, said it was obvious climate change was creating hotter conditions and you only had to look at rising insurance costs over the past 20 years to see fires were occurring more regularly.
In 1987-1996 there was $88 million in insurance claims recorded as a result of megafires.
According to Insurance Council of Australia figures, this jumped to $491 million between 1997 and 2006, and more than doubled to $1.179 billion between 2007-2016.
Megafires will not only become more frequent but more intense, researchers predict. Source: Supplied
Mr  Casey said the research and cost findings from the Insurance Council of Australia came as no surprise to firefighters on the frontline.
“They know first-hand that they are unlike anything they have faced before — fires like Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, or the Yarloop fire in Western Australia that destroy everything in their path,” he said.
“These are the sort of fires that can’t be fought in the way you would a traditional bushfire — they are too large, and too intense. You can only get people out of the way.”
Megafires have been fought in Victoria, Western Australia, New South Wales and the ACT during the past decade.
The Black Saturday bushfires saw more 400 blazes recorded across the state affecting 78 communities and claiming 173 lives and 2029 houses lost.
Images of the Black Saturday disaster remain etched in many people’s memories with the fires resembling that of a nuclear explosion.
Just last year, four people lost their lives in bushfires to the north of Esperance in Western Australia.
Mr Casey warned that unless there was real leadership shown on climate change, such disasters would continue to occur.
Grace Wilson pictured holding a garden sunflower she salvaged from ruins of her parents’ house at Mudgegonga. John and Sue died when their house was destroyed in the Black Saturday fires. Picture: Renee Nowytarger Source: News Limited
“We can take all the steps to try and get ready that we can,” he said.
“But at the end of the day it’s like sticking a Band-Aid over a wound that is rapidly becoming gangrenous.”
The Australian Firefighters Climate Alliance warn everywhere west of the Great Dividing Range face higher risks of such firestorms than ever before.
The group is also concerned about the increased risk their members will face in the line of duty and said it was clear climate change could no longer be denied.
“It’s no longer a question of belief,” Mr Casey said.
“It’s just a question of whether you can read and a question of scientific research.”
Mr Casey also said while houses could be replaced, ecosystems and lives couldn’t and the time for taking action was now.
“The cost of not addressing the root cause of worsening bushfires is high, and growing ever higher,” he said.
“This is a real threat because it has the potential to be so catastrophic.”












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'Nowhere On Earth Safe' From Climate Change As Survival Challenge Grows

FairfaxPeter Hannam

As if humans weren't making it hard enough for the world's creatures great and small.
Evidence continues to mount that global warming is having an impact on ecosystems across the planet in a myriad of ways, altering both individual species and ecological communities.

Thirty years of Arctic ice decay
Incredible animated video released by NASA shows the drastic change of the Arctic ice shelves over thirty years.

"There's really nowhere on earth where the natural systems are not being affected by climate change," Lesley Hughes, a professor of biology at Macquarie University, said.
"Climate change is simply an additional stress on already stressed ecosystems," Professor Hughes said, listing habitat loss, pollution and over-exploitation among the existing challenges.
A recent paper in Science surveyed research on 94 core ecological processes and found 82 per cent were already revealing climate change impacts as temperatures warmed.
James Watson, a conservation biologist at the University of Queensland and one of the paper's authors, said people often fixated on polar bears, penguins or another emblematic species.
"They think, 'that's miles away from me; it's a pity but it doesn't affect me'," Professor Watson said. "It's everything that's affected."
Here are six key areas of change:

Physiology
Warming temperatures alter the sex ratio of offspring of certain marine and terrestrial species.
Polar bears get much of the media attention about how climate change is affecting species - but the struggles extend far wider, scientists say. Photo: SeppFriedhuber
As  Fairfax Media reported, sea turtle eggs incubate at a uniform 29 degrees, with the male-female ratio changing according to temperature. If temperatures reach 30.5 degrees all offspring will be females. (Should the species survive long enough without males, 33 degrees is enough to ensure no embryos make it.)
The oceans are home to some other big changes, such as increasing acidity as waters absorb more carbon dioxide.
Corals are among the species in the firing line, as are creatures with shells, such as tiny pteropods, the Science paper said.
"Severe levels of shell dissolution" were reported for some Antarctic pteropods, according to a paper in Nature Geoscience.
"As deep-water up-welling and CO2 absorption by surface waters is likely to increase as a result of human activities, we conclude that upper ocean regions where aragonite-shelled organisms are affected by dissolution are likely to expand," the paper said.
These kinds of changes "have the capacity to undermine and change dramatically the structure of marine food webs, which ultimately underpin much of the protein sources for humans", Professor Hughes said.

Genetics
Species with short generation spans, such as phytoplankton, are changing fast, but not fast enough.
In the Gulf of Cariaco, off Venezuela, phytoplankton have managed to adjust their ecological thermal niche by 0.45 degrees over a 15-year period. The response, though, lagged the 0.73-degree warming of waters over that time.
For others, such as the southern flying squirrels on North America, hybridisation with "cousin species" the northern flying squirrel is one response. (See image below of northern flying squirrel, via www.nature.ca )
Since 1995, a series of unusually warm winters has marked the start of a northward surge of 240 km in the range of the southern squirrel, the Daily Climate reported, based on work published in Global Change Biology.
Similar hybridisation is evident elsewhere, generating other concerns.
"The interbreeding has several consequences, none well understood: It could increase genetic diversity, helping species weather rapid ecosystem changes," the Daily Climate said. "It also could dilute the genetics of at-risk animals such as polar bears, perhaps even diluting them beyond recognition. And the changes threaten to wreak havoc with conservation efforts."

Morphology
Individuals of some species are shrinking in size, as scientists have expected, as creatures with larger surface-to-volume ratios are favoured as temperatures rise.
The body size of six woodland salamander species in the US Appalachian Mountains has shrunk an average of 8 per cent over the past 50 years, Science said.
Species of butterflies, dragonflies and birds are also changing colour, other studies showed, with some becoming darker or lighter, depending on local advantages. The skull shape of alpine chipmunk has "revealed significant changes" in California over the past century as its ranges narrow and its diet changes.

Phenology
The timing of many life processes of species – such as the budding of plants, the hatching of birds and migration timings – is closely tied to climate variation. Climate shifts are throwing such processes out of whack.
"Across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems, spring phenologies have advanced by 2.3 to 5.1 days per decade, the Science paper said. "A combination of climate warming and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations has extended the growing period of many plant populations."
Examples include reduced fledging success of tawny owls in the UK as hatchings over the past 27 years have become synchronous with its principal prey, the field vole.
Another predator-prey mismatch is evident among blooms of spring diatoms, which have advanced more than 20 days since 1962, triggering declining populations of its main grazer, the water flea.

Distribution
A shift in species' location is one of the most rapid responses observed especially for marine creatures with fewer connectivity issues compared with land-based ones, Science said.
Professor Watson said changing seasonal rains mean Australia's savannah regions are experiencing more intense fires later in the season, killing off grasses. The result is that rainforests are expanding to fill the ecological gap
Elsewhere, corals around Japan have shifted their range by as as much as 14 km per year over the past 80 years, the paper noted.
In the mountains of New Guinea, birds have shifted their distributions, moving up the slopes by as much as 152 metres between 1965 and 2013, according to other research.

Inter-species relations
As species are becoming redistributed, existing interactions between species are being disrupted.
Off Western Australia, for example, overgrazing of subtropical reefs by the pole-ward spread of tropical browsing fish hampered the recovery in 2013 of kelp killed by a previous heatwave event, according to research published by Ecology Letters.
Feeding rates by the browsing fish were about three times higher than previously observed on coral reefs.
Elsewhere, woody plants are invading arctic and alpine herb-dominated communities in response to rapid warming in recent decades, triggering secondary shifts in distribution of other plants and animals, Science said.
In  one example from Sweden, resident birds, such as the great tit, had become better able to adapt to warmer temperatures and out-compete with the pied flycatcher, the sole long-distance migrant.
In general, movements of many species are becoming more erratic and harder to predict, Professor Watson said.

'Almost incomprehensible'
"The frightening thing is that we have only had a degree of warming so far [since pre-industrial times], Professor Hughes said, adding that the rate of warming will be three times even if nations "perfectly kept" promises made in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
"The changes that would go along with 3 degrees are almost incomprehensible," she said.
A paper out this week published by The Royal Society examined how fast ecological niches occupied by various species were adapting and how much they would need to change over the next 55 years.
The analysis of 266 populations of plants and animals showed rates of change in climatic niches to be dramatically slower than rates of projected climate change, in the order of 200,000-fold for temperature.
Species in the tropics – typically the most various on earth – were less capable of adjusting than those at higher latitudes, the authors led by the University of Arizona found.
Professor Hughes said species in the Darwin region might only need to tolerate a temperature range over the year of about 30-35 degrees, while those in the Sydney region might endure a 0-40 degree range.
"Those species in the tropics probably have a far narrower range of variability that they can cope with," she said. "That predisposes them to being more vulnerable" in a warming world.

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The Small African Region With More Refugees Than All Of Europe

The Guardian

Hunger follows displaced people around north-east Nigeria, as Boko Haram and climate change drive millions from their homes
Women and children queue outside a Unicef nutrition clinic in a makeshift settlement in Muna, Maiduguri, which is home to thousands of IDPs. Photograph: Stefan Heunis/AFP/Getty
As Ali Kawu eases his handcart to a halt on a recent morning in north-east Nigeria, it is the first time he has dared to stop walking in more than 24 hours.
A day earlier, at 8am, Boko Haram militants raided his village. Kawu, 25, escaped with what he could – his wife, their three children, and kindling for a fire. They left behind their papers, six sacks of beans, up to 15 dead neighbours, and 10 kidnapped villagers. Then they walked all day and all night.
Ali Kawu, 25, fled to the town on Monguno after being attacked by Boko Haram. The number of displaced people in this small town is comparable to the number who left north Africa for Europe so far this year. Photograph: Patrick Kingsley for the Guardian
“Every minute I would look back to see if they were following us,” Kawu says, shortly after reaching the safety of Monguno, a town recaptured from Boko Haram last year. “Walking forward, looking back, walking forward, looking back. I thought it was the end of my life.”
But safety doesn’t mean comfort. Kawu is just the latest of approximately 140,000 displaced people sheltering in this remote town of 60,000 people. North-east Nigeria has been hit by a displacement crisis that dwarfs any migration flows seen in Europe in recent years.
Since the Boko Haram insurgency began, more people have migrated to Monguno alone than left all of north Africa for Europe in the first nine months of this year.

More Africans displaced in one Nigerian town than left for Europe this year
One upshot is a food crisis that the UN warns might see hundreds of thousands die from famine next year.
About 40% more people have been displaced throughout Borno state (1.4 million) than reached Europe by boat in 2015 (1 million). Across the region, the war against Boko Haram has forced more people from their homes – 2.6 million – than there are Syrians in Turkey, the country that hosts more refugees than any other.
The comparisons mirror a wider trend across Africa. Of the world’s 17 million displaced Africans, 93.7% remain inside the continent, and just 3.3% have reached Europe, according to UN data supplied privately to the Guardian.
“No matter how many problems Europeans have, it’s nothing like this,” summarises Modu Amsami, the informal leader of Monguno’s nine camps for internally displaced people (IDP), as he strolls past Kawu’s newly erected hut. “Please, I’m appealing to Europeans to forget their minor problems. Let them come here and face our major problems.”

Barely 3% of African refugees are in Europe
For 18 months, Monguno endured its migration crisis largely alone. Amsami is an IDP but decided to run Monguno’s nine camps himself in the absence of any government officials. It was not until this June, a year and a half after the Nigerian army retook the town from Boko Haram, that aid groups and civil servants felt safe to return.
“We were shaken by what we saw,” says Mathieu Kinde, an aid worker with Alima, a medical NGO that was the first to arrive. Many people were starving, having been cut off from their farmland. There was a polio outbreak – Nigeria’s first case in two years. Just one government doctor was left in the town.
To this day, the townspeople cannot farm their fields – Boko Haram remains too close to the town’s perimeter. Aid convoys from Maiduguri, the state capital, risk ambush. Most food can arrive only by helicopter, which is how the Guardian reached the town. The number of people in a famine-like state has been slightly reduced, but every week Alima treats up to 200 new cases of malnutrition. “The situation remains alarming,” says Kinde.
About 68 miles (110km) to the south, Maiduguri seems calmer. It remains under curfew but the roads into the city are largely secure, the streets are clean and its nightlife is reportedly experiencing a tentative revival. But if you know where to look, it is a city under extreme pressure.
More than 600,000 IDPs have migrated to this city of just 1.1 million during peacetime over the past three years, according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). About a quarter have been put up in half-built schools, or in housing projects intended for teachers and civil servants. The rest have been taken in by friends and relatives.
The government in Maiduguri has installed 13,000 IDPs in a housing estate originally meant for civil servants. Photograph: Patrick Kingsley for the Guardian
“It’s an amazing story,” says Toby Lanzer, the UN’s assistant secretary general for the Sahel and the Lake Chad region. According to Lanzer, the local community has in effect said: “We built that as a school, but you [IDPs can] have it. And we built that as a new neighbourhood, but we will put you lot in it. How’s that for generosity, Europe?”
But that generosity has come at a price, says the governor of Borno state, the province where the majority of the fighting and displacement has taken place. Unemployment in Maiduguri has exceeded 50% since the start of the crisis, says the governor, Kashim Shettima, while more beggars gather at the major road junctions because the IDPs have few means of alternative income.
“Health facilities are at breaking point,” he says. “All resources have become overstretched. We ask all people of conscience to help.”
Across the region, about 65,000 people are suffering from famine-like conditions. Inside a makeshift clinic run by Médecins Sans Frontières in a Maiduguri suburb, you can find some of the most dire cases. On bed after bed, about 100 skeletal babies and toddlers stare vacantly into space. Many have plastic nodules stuck to their skull, to allow the nurses to attach them to a drip. Many children are so thin their scalp is the only place a visible vein can be found.
“Getting food became so difficult after my husband was killed [by Boko Haram],” says one mother, whose malnourished three-year-old lies motionless on the bed beside her. “I would beg every day but I wouldn’t get more than 100 naira [25p] a day. And that’s how he got hungry.”
A mother feeds her malnourished child at a nutrition clinic run by Médicins Sans Frontières in Maiduguri. Thousands of children have died of starvation and disease in Boko Haram-ravaged north-eastern Nigeria. Photograph: Sunday Alamba/AP
The international community has largely failed to help: UN funding is still 61% ($297m) short of its target. Local residents have stepped in where they can. Babakara al-Kali, a Maiduguri businessman, has given a plot of land to about 3,000 IDPs – forgoing the 10m naira (£25,000) he previously charged construction workers and mechanics to rent it every year. “If you help someone, God will help you,” Kali says. “So I decided to help them.”
Still, the conditions inside this makeshift camp are abject. Streams of slurry trickle through the site. A family mourns a child who died yesterday of hunger. Two elderly men have become blind in recent days and the camp’s elders blame the lack of food. Some residents spend their mornings collecting spilt grain at the local market; in the afternoons, they sift through them piece by piece, sorting the edible grains from the rotten ones.
“We have lost count of the number of people killed by hunger,” says Bulama Modusalim, the camp’s informal leader.
Aside from their physical problems, many of the IDPs across the region are suffering from psychological trauma. Almost every interviewee tells a story of being woken at dawn by gunfire, of emerging from their huts to find Boko Haram fighters killing their neighbours or kidnapping their relatives.
Ali Falfami, 73, had his hand removed after being shot by Boko Haram fighters. Photograph: Patrick Kingsley for the Guardian
Ali Falfami, 73, has a missing hand; it was amputated after being shot by Boko Haram. Karu Modu, 28, has a missing son – he was shot by the militants – and a missing husband: they slit his throat. Modu survived because she agreed to watch their murder. “They forced me to watch them die so that I would not be slaughtered,” she says, before breaking down in tears.
Modu was then kidnapped and held for nearly two years. After escaping with a group of fellow captives, six of their children died of thirst as they trekked to the safety of Maiduguri. On arrival, they were initially ostracised. People feared the women had become indoctrinated during their time with the extremists, and were wary of talking to or even sitting with the returnees.
Karu Modu, 28, was kidnapped and held by Boko Haram for two years. Photograph: Patrick Kingsley for the Guardian
These are not isolated experiences. The #BringBackOurGirls campaign has focused on the group of schoolgirls kidnapped from Chibok in 2014 – but away from the media spotlight, thousands of others are believed to have also been abducted in other incidents. At one point, Boko Haram controlled an area the size of Belgium and killed an estimated 20,000 people. Now the group is in retreat, but millions more still face food shortages.
“The narrative of this deepening humanitarian crisis in north-east Nigeria has been largely overlooked by the media, whose focus remains on the kidnapping of roughly 300 Chibok school girls,” says Orla Fagan, a spokesperson for UN’s office for coordination of humanitarian affairs.
“Each one of the girls who remains captivity is a minuscule representation of the millions of Nigerians who now face starvation across the north-east as a result of Boko Haram violence. They are some of the poorest, most vulnerable members of society, who also continue to struggle for their basic needs to survive each and every day.”
Many of them are being encouraged to return home where they face uncertain futures. The Nigerian army has retaken several key towns from the insurgents, and the government wants their former residents to go back to what they say are now safe areas. But the reality is more complex: the roads in and out are often still contested, as are the fields surrounding the towns. Many buildings lie in ruins and, as a result, returnees are often forced to live in IDP camps even after they have nominally reached their hometown.
Bulama Modusalim is the informal leader of a makeshift camp for IDPs displaced by the Boko Haram insurgency in north-east Nigeria. Photograph: Patrick Kingsley for the Guardian
Bulama Modusalim, the leader of the informal camp in Maiduguri, took a group of villagers back to Konduga in August, after the government assured them it was safe. “But when we went back we found that Boko Haram was still [in the surrounding area],” says Modusalim. “We went back and we found our houses were destroyed. We couldn’t go further than 1km from the town, so we couldn’t farm.”
Eventually, the situation became so desperate that they went back to Maiduguri, despite the poverty they knew they would face there. In a choice between war and starvation, they would rather risk the latter.
Amid all this misery, Boko Haram is the most obvious explanation for what has gone wrong. Nearly everyone is running from the jihadis who still control significant parts of the Lake Chad basin. But what led to the group’s rise in the first place? Local leaders say the group was initially able to present its fighters as victims of police brutality – and more generally positioned Boko Haram as a radical alternative to the high levels of regional poverty and unemployment.

Between 1963 and 2005, the surface area of Lake Chad decreased from approximately 25,000 km2 to 1,350 km2

But according to several interviewees, including the local governor, this social alienation was partly fuelled by rapid climate change. North-east Nigeria borders Lake Chad, a vast inland lake that supplies water to about 70 million people in four countries – Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger. But since the 1970s, it has shrunk by 90% – from 25,000km2 to less than 2,500km2. And those who live near its former shores say this shrinkage is one indirect cause of violence in the region, and the subsequent displacement.
Modu Amsami, the IDP who runs the nine camps in Monguno, comes from the village of Gumnari, which was once just 2km from the lake. Now it’s 18km away.
“In the 70s, you could put this tree in the lake,” Amsami says, pointing at a nearby tree, “and you wouldn’t even see it. Now if I walked in there, the water wouldn’t even reach my chest.”
As a child, Amsami’s father would tie him to a tree to stop him entering the lake and being eaten by crocodiles. Today there would be no need. The water is nowhere in sight and it’s difficult to even see a crocodile.
Modu Amsami stands next to a tree that he says would once have been submerged by Lake Chad. Now the waters would not reach his shoulders, he says. Photograph: Patrick Kingsley for the Guardian
All this has led to unemployment for thousands of fishermen and farmers – including several people from Amsami’s family. He reckons this worsened living conditions, created a wave of unemployed and disaffected youth – and so helped fuel the anger and resentment that created Boko Haram. “If the Lake Chad water was normal,” says Amsami, “all these problems [with Boko Haram] would be eliminated economically, because nobody would have time to do all these things.”
According to the IOM, few of the roughly 35,000 Nigerians who have in Europe this year are fleeing from the insurgency in the north-east. But the west would be wise to take the Lake Chad crisis seriously, lest the millions seeking sanctuary in the region decide to move towards Europe. Lanzer says he is “willing to bet a month’s salary that the proportion of people who will arrive in Europe from Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and via Niger will grow substantially”.
Shettima speaks in even starker terms: “As long as the underlying problems that precipitate the crisis are not met, then there is a risk that more Nigerians will try to go to Europe.
“At the moment, most of them are economic migrants, but if this madness is not solved, believe me you will see a mass of humanity trying to get to Europe via the Mediterranean.”

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28/11/2016

Carmichael Mine Jumps Another Legal Hurdle, But Litigants Are Making Headway

The Conversation

Environmental activists rallied at Queensland’s state parliament in April. AAP Image/Nathan Paull

The Carmichael coal mine planned for Queensland’s Galilee Basin has cleared another legal hurdle, with the state’s Supreme Court dismissing a legal challenge to the validity of the Queensland government’s decision to approve the project.
The court found in favour of the Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection, ruling that its approval of Indian firm Adani’s proposal was within the rules.
The decision is another setback for environmentalists’ bid to stop the controversial project. But Adani does not yet have a green light to break ground on the project, and legal questions still remain, both about this project and about climate change litigation more generally.

The Supreme Court ruling
It is important to note that this was a judicial review proceeding – a narrow type of review in which the court is not permitted to consider whether or not the decision to approve the mine was “correct”. The court could only rule on whether correct procedures were followed, while accepting that the decision was at the government’s discretion.
Within this already narrow context, the argument on which the legal challenge hinged was even more constrained. It was brought by an environmental campaign group called Land Services of Coast and Country (LSCC), and was focused on a particular point of Queensland environmental law.
Queensland’s Environmental Protection Act 1994 requires that decisions are made in accordance with the Act’s objective, which is to deliver “ecologically sustainable developent”. LSCC argued that the government failed to do this in approving the coalmine.
The Supreme Court disagreed, finding that the government had considered all matters that it were obliged to consider. So in this respect, the Supreme Court’s decision is an endorsement of the process, but not necessarily the ultimate decision.

Is this the final hurdle overcome for Adani?
In short, no. The decision can be referred to Queensland’s Court of Appeal. There is also ongoing litigation against Adani in the Federal Court of Australia under federal environmental and native title laws. There are also some approvals yet to be obtained by Adani, including a groundwater licence.

Is this ruling a rejection of climate change arguments against the coal mine?
No. This case dealt specifically with the question of whether the Queensland government had complied with a particular aspect of the law. The Supreme Court did not (and was not able to) address the potential climate change impacts of the proposed mine.
These climate issues were addressed more fully by Queensland’s Land Court in the case of Adani Mining Pty Ltd v Land Services of Coast and Country Inc & Ors (2015) QLC 48.
Importantly, the Land Court in this case accepted the scientific basis for climate change, and agreed that “scope 3 emissions” (that is, the emissions produced when the coal is burned overseas) are indeed a relevant consideration in whether or not to approve the mine.
However, Adani successfully used a “market substitution” defence, arguing that if the mine is refused, coal would simply be mined elsewhere and burned regardless.

What does this case say about climate change litigation more generally?
The latest judgement was handed down amid a series of fresh attacks on the rights of environmental groups to use Australia’s environmental laws to hold companies and governments to account. Federal Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has raised concerns about “activists … seeking to frustrate” projects with “vexatious litigation”, while Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has revived plans to amend federal environmental legislation so as to restrict standing to apply for judicial review – the so-called “lawfare” amendments.
In the wake of the new ruling, the head of the Queensland Resources Council has criticised the delays caused by litigation against mining projects.
This begs the question: is climate change litigation “vexatious”? A close analysis of Queensland court decisions would suggest the opposite. Climate change issues have been considered in a series of three key Queensland Land Court cases: Wandoan Mine in 2012, Alpha Coal Project in 2014, and the Carmichael Mine (Adani) in 2015.
The Alpha Coal matter has proceeded to the Supreme Court, the Court of Appeal, and leave has been sought to appeal to the High Court of Australia. Importantly, none of these cases has been dismissed as vexatious; each resulted in a lengthy judgement analysing the complex legal issues raised by the objector.
Furthermore, although objectors have not yet succeeded in stopping a mining project on the basis of climate concerns, they have nevertheless made modest strides. Most recently, President McMurdo of Queensland’s Court of Appeal found that the Land Court must consider scope 3 emissions in deciding whether a mine should be granted environmental approval. This represents significant progress, given that climate science was questioned by Queensland Courts less than ten years ago.
The only significant barrier remaining to a successful climate change case is the market substitution defence, which will be considered by the High Court if special leave is granted in the Alpha Coal matter.
Climate change litigation has also clarified other environmental and economic impacts. In the Carmichael Mine case, it was discovered that the mine site was a critical habitat for the endangered black-throated finch – evidence that was not previously available. The Land Court ordered strict conditions aimed at protecting this species. The litigation also served to clarify the significantly overstated economic benefits of the mine – particularly Adani’s estimate that it would generate more than 10,000 jobs. It was revealed in court that this figure was more likely to be 1,206 jobs in Queensland, as part of a total of 1,464 jobs in Australia.

Where to for climate change litigation?
Although the latest judgement is another setback for environmental groups, it is part of a bigger body of case law that is making real and discernible progress in ensuring that climate change is considered by decision-makers and courts.
Given that several courts have agreed on the validity of climate litigants’ arguments, it seems perverse for the federal government to try and restrict environmental groups’ right to continue raising these concerns.

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Captain Cook's Detailed 1778 Records Confirm Global Warming Today In The Arctic

Phys.org - Sandi Doughton, The Seattle Times

Mosaic of images of the Arctic by MODIS. Credit: NASA

Passengers simmered in Jacuzzis and feasted on gourmet cuisine this summer as the 850-foot cruise ship Crystal Serenity moved through the Northwest Passage.
But in the summer of 1778, when Capt. James Cook tried to find a Western entrance to the route, his men toiled on frost-slicked decks and complained about having to supplement dwindling rations with walrus meat.
The British expedition was halted north of the Bering Strait by "ice which was as compact as a wall and seemed to be 10 or 12 feet high at least," according to the captain's journal. Cook's ships followed the ice edge all the way to Siberia in their futile search for an opening, sometimes guided through fog by the braying of the unpalatable creatures the crew called Sea Horses.
More than two centuries later, scientists are mining meticulous records kept by Cook and his crew for a new perspective on the warming that has opened the Arctic in a way the 18th century explorer could never have imagined.
Working with maps and logs from Cook's voyage and other historical records and satellite imagery, University of Washington mathematician Harry Stern has tracked changes in  in the Chukchi Sea, between Alaska and Russia, over nearly 240 years.
The results, published this month in the journal Polar Geography, confirm the significant shrinkage of the summer ice cap and shed new light on the timing of the transformation. The analysis also extends the historical picture back nearly 75 years, building on previous work with ships' records from the 1850s.
"This old data helps us look at what conditions were like before we started , and what the natural variability was," said Jim Overland, a Seattle-based oceanographer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who was not involved in Stern's project.
Though earlier explorers ventured into the frigid waters off Alaska, Cook was the first to map the ice edge, Stern said. Cook undertook the voyage, which also covered the Northwest coast, on orders from King George III to seek a shorter trading route between Europe and the Far East across the top of the world.
Stymied by the ice, Cook headed for the winter to Hawaii, where he was killed by native people.
Stern's analysis found that for more than 200 years after Cook's visit the summer ice cover in the Chukchi Sea fluctuated, but generally extended south to near where Cook encountered it.
"Basically, from the time of Cook until the 1990s, you more or less could count on hitting the ice somewhere around 70 degrees north in August," Stern said. "Now the ice edge is hundreds of miles farther north."
That meshes with modern observations that confirm rapid shrinkage of the Arctic ice pack over the past three decades, Overland said. The total volume of ice in summer is now 60 to 70 percent lower than it was in the 1980s, while Arctic temperatures have increased at twice the rate of the rest of the planet as a result of rising greenhouse-gas levels.
"That's probably the largest indicator that global warming is a real phenomenon," Overland said.
With more melting in the summer and delayed freezing in the fall, the once-elusive Northwest Passage is now navigable for private yachts and vessels like the Crystal Serenity, which made the 7,300-mile trip from Alaska to New York in 32 days. The transformation has also triggered a rush to drill for oil in previously ice-choked watersm and an international power struggle over control of the route and resources.
The tensions are similar to those in Cook's day, Stern pointed out. Nations then were eager to find and claim a Northwest Passage, while whalers and fur traders scrambled to exploit the newly opened frontier.
But the data from Cook and other explorers show there were no similar warm periods in their times, said UW climatologist Kevin Wood. "It tells you that what's happening now is a fairly unique and extreme case."
Wood helps run a project called Old Weather, which relies on citizen scientists to transcribe and digitize old ship's logs. Since the effort began five years ago, thousands of volunteers have processed 1 million handwritten pages from whalers, fishing vessels and U.S. revenue cutters.
The data are being used to re-create past weather patterns and improve climate models.
Historical ice measurements are especially valuable, Wood said, because existing models don't seem to do a good job of forecasting ice cover.
While models predict the Arctic won't be ice-free in summer until 2050 or later, the current pace of change suggests it will happen much sooner.
Cook's ice observations are also of interest to historians.
David Nicandri, former director of the Washington State Historical Society, is finishing a book in which he argues that Cook - who is usually associated with Hawaii and Tahiti - was the original polar scientist.
Cook also explored southern polar waters, searching for a rumored continent. Though he never found Antarctica, the experience led Cook to question the conventional wisdom of the time that held that oceans couldn't freeze and that sea ice originated in rivers.
"Cook never fully got it right, but he realized there was too much ice to have flowed out of any set of rivers," said Nicandri, who was also co-editor of a series of essays entitled "Arctic Ambitions: Captain Cook and the Northwest Passage" where some of Stern's analysis was originally published.
Cook also described different types of sea ice and suggested that thick walls and ridges, like those he saw in the Arctic, must represent multiple years of accumulation.
"He's never given credit for his pioneering work in polar climatology," Nicandri said.

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