Climate Change Disaster Is Biggest Threat To Global Economy In 2016, Say Experts

The Guardian - Larry Elliott

Global warming heads top economists’ concerns for first time but large-scale forced migration seen as most likely risk to materialise

A climate activist demonstrates in Paris during the UN climate change conference in December. This year, global warming leads the WEF’s Global Risks report. Photograph: Matt Dunham/AP

A catastrophe caused by climate change is seen as the biggest potential threat to the global economy in 2016, according to a survey of 750 experts conducted by the World Economic Forum.
The annual assessment of risks conducted by the WEF before its annual meeting in Davos on 20-23 January showed that global warming had catapulted its way to the top of the list of concerns.
A failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation was seen as likely to have a bigger impact than the spread of weapons of mass destruction, water crises, mass involuntary migration and a severe energy price shock – the first time in the 11 years of the Global Risks report that the environment has been in first place.
The report, prepared by the WEF in collaboration with risk specialists Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group, comes a month after the deal signed in Paris to reduce carbon emissions. The WEF said evidence was mounting that inter-connections between risks were becoming stronger. It cited links between climate change and involuntary migration or international security, noting that these often had “major and unpredictable impacts”.
Espen Barth Eide, the WEF’s head of geopolitical affairs, said there was a risk of Europe fragmenting as a result of “people on the move”.
Speaking at a press conference in London to launch the report, Eide said: “I am concerned about the continued support in national politics for keeping Europe together.”
Eide added that if enough countries decided to pursue a non-integrated approach to coping with migration it would have “profound effects on Europe’s politics and its economy”, and would have a knock-on impact on the rest of the world. “If things unravel at the core, what does it mean in other parts of the world?”
Cecilia Reyes, Zurich’s chief risk officer, said: “Climate change is exacerbating more risks than ever before in terms of water crises, food shortages, constrained economic growth, weaker societal cohesion and increased security risks.
“Meanwhile, geopolitical instability is exposing businesses to cancelled projects, revoked licences, interrupted production, damaged assets and restricted movement of funds across borders. These political conflicts are in turn making the challenge of climate change all the more insurmountable – reducing the potential for political cooperation, as well as diverting resource, innovation and time away from climate change resilience and prevention.”
The WEF said the broad range of risks – from environmental to geopolitical and economic – was unprecedented.
It added that risks appeared to be rising, with global average surface temperatures increasing by more than 1C over pre-industrial levels for the first time, and the number of forcibly displaced people at 59.5 million – almost 50% more than in 1940, when the second world war was being fought. “Data from the report appears to support the increased likelihood of risks across the board, with all 24 of the risks continuously measured since 2014 having increased their likelihood scores in the past three years,” the WEF said.

A five-year-old Kurdish boy from Iraq at a camp near Dunkirk, northern France. Involuntary mass migration is likely to increase, according to the report. Photograph: Philippe Huguen/AFP/Getty Images

When asked which risk was most likely to materialise in 2016, respondents chose large-scale involuntary migration. This follows last year’s refugee crisis, in which hundreds of thousands of people arrived in Europe fleeing conflicts in the Middle East and north Africa.
This was followed by extreme weather events, climate change, interstate conflict with regional consequences, and major natural catastrophes.
“Events such as Europe’s refugee crisis and terrorist attacks have raised global political instability to its highest level since the cold war,” said John Drzik, president of Marsh Global Risk and Specialties.
“This is widening the backdrop of uncertainty against which international firms will increasingly be forced to make their strategic decisions. The need for business leaders to consider the implications of these risks on their firm’s footprint, reputation and supply chain has never been more pressing.”
Drzik said at the press conference: “Most risks are rising. It’s a riskier world right now.”

Links

• Michael Bloomberg to head global taskforce on climate change
• Though climate change is a crisis, the population threat is even worse
• Did climate change help cause the Syria war?
• Prince Charles: rewire the global economy to stop climate change

A Conversation With Mary Robinson, Former President Of Ireland, On Climate Change

University of California Los Angeles - Stan Paul

Luskin Lecture Series features human rights and climate change leader on a sustainable future

Photo by: Roberto Gudino

Mary Robinson started her career with a deep passion for human rights, from economic and social to food, education, women’s rights, security and peace.
It was only later that the former president of Ireland says she saw the link between human rights and climate change, while serving as the United Nations Special Envoy for Climate Change. Her work and travels in Africa made her aware that climate changes were tied to uncertainties of drought and flooding and that “something was happening.” She heard again and again, in countries such as Liberia, that “things were getting so much worse.” In areas where the focus was traditionally on poverty or other issues, there were now areas where the climate — and planting and harvest times — could no longer be predicted.
“We needed to be talking about the injustice of climate change,” which affects the poor and most vulnerable, even the U.S., citing the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina on the poor in the U.S., said Robinson, who served as a U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights until 2002.


Following Robinson’s January 12 Luskin Lecture in UCLA’s Charles E. Young Grand Salon, former Los Angeles Times writer and editor Jim Newton moderated a discussion and Q&A session, asking Robinson about the impact of the recent Paris Climate Agreement.
Robinson, organizer of foundations including Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative and The Mary Robinson Foundation – Climate Justice, said she was energized by the talks in Paris, which provided a new way of describing the problem, and that she was encouraged that nearly 200 countries that all agreed on individual contributions to be made toward carbon emission reduction.
“It was actually a fair agreement, not strong but fair — that was extraordinary,” said Robinson. She said that the Paris Agreement provided a new target for the world. “It put a stake in the ground.”
Even so, Robinson, citing a recent U.N. study, pointed out that if all of the countries realized their commitments to carbon reduction and climate change from the Paris Agreement, the world is still on course for a disastrous temperature increase beyond the oft-citied two-degree climate cliff.
Robinson said that more has to be done for a sustainable future, but the Paris agreement is nevertheless important because many countries would have given up, and that many small countries, island nations, will be “under water with 1.5 degrees.”
Robinson, who attended the climate talks in Paris, praised California, saying that the state was notable for its leadership in climate change and illustrating what can be done.
Prior to her presentation, co-sponsored by the Hilton Foundation and the Global Public Affairs (GPA) program at Luskin, a small group of UCLA Luskin graduate students had the chance to talk one-on-one with Robinson.
Jason Karpman, a second-year Urban Planning graduate student, said he was interested in this opportunity to talk with Robinson because of his interest in climate change, specifically carbon sequestration. “It’s the elephant in the room,” said Karpman, adding that, right now, “there are not a lot of options on the table.”
Robinson stressed to her pre-talk audience of Luskin students from Public Policy, Social Welfare and Urban Planning that the quality of leadership matters. “We need the policy decisions that are the right decisions,” and making policy more “people centered.” She added that the goal of sustainability should be to not leave anyone behind, which is what happened in the industrial revolution. She said that while the world must reduce carbon, at the same time, more than a billion people are energy poor, with no access to electricity and still burning dangerous kerosene in their homes.
“We have the gadgets,” said Robinson referring to LED lights, solar power, etc., and the ability to make payments on mobile phones via cell phone applications. “Most developing countries are interested in clean energy,” she said.
The discussion also included a range of important topics such as reforestation that is economically effective, the use of lighter materials such as carbon fiber in vehicles, technology and migration patterns. Migration patterns caused by politics and climate change are shaping up to be “one of the biggest issues worldwide,” said Robinson. “People have to move.” She said the real issue is how to manage migration in big numbers, pointing out how Syria and other countries have suffered both conflict and ongoing drought as well as the problems faced by countries due to an influx of migrants.
“They will come whether we like it or not,” she said. “We have to have leadership now.”
Robinson also has a very personal interest in the future of the planet — her grandchildren, who will be growing up in an age of severe climate change. She pointed out the intergenerational equity of the problem.
“This is about your children and grandchildren,” she said. “It’s their future.”

Link

• Video of the Mary Robinson Luskin Lecture

Indigenous Australian Solar Energy Company Takes On Tesla

Gizmodo - Rae Johnston

This Queensland company’s core mission is based on the fundamental Aboriginal approach of stewardship of the earth and its resources, and this means a move away from a reliance on fossil fuels for energy. Oh, and it offers a 10kWh solar energy storage system costing 30 per cent less than the Tesla Powerwall.
AllGrid Energy‘s $11,999 WattGrid system allows households to store power produced by their solar panels during the day for use in the evening. In combination with a 3kw solar panel array the WattGrid can offer an average of 12kwh per day, or half of the average daily household average, but it can be combined with an array of up to 7kw to provide even more.
WattGrid works by utilising all stored energy before it takes from the grid, but with a larger solar array this may not even be necessary.
AllGrid is expected to start deliveries of the WattGrid in the next two to three months.
The PortaGrid is another product being produced by AllGrid, and as the name suggests it is a portable solar power solution. Designed for emergencies or remote locations off the grid, it comes with the lot — panels, inverter and battery storage.
National Parks are currently looking at the PortaGrid as a replacement for its diesel generators.
Commercial-scale systems that can power an entire remote Aboriginal community are also on the horizon.
“This would create energy wealth and energy autonomy for those remote Aboriginal communities,” A spokesperson from AllGrid said.
AllGrid manufactures its products out of Brisbane with a predominately Aboriginal workforce.
A joint effort between the Indigenous owned and operated electrical contracting firm DICE Australia and AllGrid (which is an accredited Indigenous corporation), the company has committed to directing a percentage of all company profits into creating and supporting training and employment programs for Indigenous Australian young people.

Renewable Energy Investment In Australia Way Behind Target, Analysis Finds

Fairfax - Angela Macdonald-Smith

Investment in renewable energy is running behind target. Photo: Liu Xiao

Investment in large renewable energy projects in Australia is running at just one-third of what is required to meet the 2020 Renewable Energy Target and behind countries such as Thailand and Morocco, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) has found.
While spending on large-scale projects recovered slightly last year from the depths of the 2014 investment freeze, the $1.18 billion compares with a peak of $3.29 billion in 2010 and with the $3.6 billion a year that is needed to meet the target, the analysts said in a report on Thursday.
BNEF blamed the shortfall on a lingering lack of confidence in the RET policy last year as it was undermined by the Abbott government's review of the scheme.
Since the review was announced on February 17, 2014, only $15 million of investment has been driven by the RET policy, compared to more than $12 billion in the period prior to that and since the scheme was born in 2001, Sydney-based analysts Kobad Bhavnagri and Stephanie Allport found.

Seeking funding
The weak numbers stand as a contrast to the keen response to a $100 million funding program for large-scale solar prices from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), where 77 expressions of interest have been whittled down to 22 projects. Those project proponents are seeking more than three times as much funding as is on offer for projects that would cost $1.68 billion to build.
Total investment in new clean energy in Australia was $US2.97 billion ($4.3 billion) last year, a modest increase on 2014 but well down from the $US6.74 billion spent in the peak year of 2011, BNEF said in its global report.
Investment in small scale solar PV installations helped support the sector, while investment in large-scale assets "continues to stall," BNEF said. The ACT's reverse auction program for renewable projects, and grant funding from ARENA and lending from the Clean Energy Finance Corporation propped up investment, it said.
Australia's total investment in the sector placed it 12th behind other resource-intensive economies including Chile, Canada, South Africa and Brazil.
Australia's performance contrasted with the global picture, with worldwide investment in clean energy reaching a record $US329.3 billion last year, up 4 per cent on 2014. China was again the biggest investor, with a 17 per cent increase to $US110.5 billion.