Australia Adds New Colour To Temperature Maps As Heat Soars

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Forecast temperatures are so extreme that the Bureau of Meteorology has had to add a new colour to its scale. It is a sign of things to come

Australian Bureau of Metereology temperature map - with a new colour for 52-54C. Photograph: BOM.

Global warming is turning the volume of extreme weather up, Spinal-Tap-style, to 11. The temperature forecast for next Monday by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is so unprecedented - over 52C - that it has had to add a new colour to the top of its scale, a suitably incandescent purple.
Australia's highest recorded temperature is 50.7C, set in January 1960 in South Australia. The record for the hottest average day across the nation was set on Monday, at 40.3C, exceeding a 40-year-old record. "What makes this event quite exceptional is how widespread and intense it's been," said Aaron Coutts-Smith, the weather bureau's climate services manager. "We have been breaking records across all states and territories in Australia over the course of the event so far." Wildfires are raging across New South Wales and Tasmania.
Australia's prime minister Julia Gillard said: "Whilst you would not put any one event down to climate change, weather doesn't work like that, we do know over time that as a result of climate change we are going to see more extreme weather events and conditions."

A fire danger rating sign set to catastrophic sends out a clear message on the situation on the outskirts of Wandandian south of Nowra, near Sydney, New South Wales. Four new ares in NSW have been given a 'catastrophic 'fire danger rating meaning that if fires break out they will be uncontrollable and fast moving, so residents should leave. Photograph: Dean Lewins/EPA

She is right of course to be cautious about attributing individual events to global warming, but it is equally clear that new colours will need to be added to scales across the world for heatwaves and other extreme weather events.
We already know that climate change is loading the weather dice. Scientists have shown that the European heatwave of 2003, that caused over 40,000 premature deaths, was made at least twice as likely by climate change. The Russian heatwave of 2010, that killed 50,000 and wiped out $15bn of crops, was made three times as likely by global warming and led to the warmest European summer for 500 years.
The extreme weather forecast is even worse. Mega-heatwaves like these will become five to 10 times more likely over the next 40 years, occurring at least once a decade, scientists predict.
Work by the most authoritative group of scientists, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, found that it is 90% certain that heatwaves will increase further in length and severity, as will extreme high tides. It is 66% likely that hurricanes and typhoon winds will get faster and that intense rain will increase, as well as landslides. It is more likely than not that droughts will intensify in Europe, North and Central America and, most dangerously given the poverty there, Southern Africa. There are uncertainties of course, but the basic physics is that heat-trapping carbon emissions mean more energy is being pumped into the system, increasing climate chaos.
The two nations in which the fringe opinions of so-called climate sceptics have been trumpeted most loudly - the US and Australia - have now been hit by record heatwaves and, in the US, superstorm Sandy. The scientists are turning up the volume of their warnings, but whether this leads to loud and clear political action to curb emissions or more shouting from sceptics and the vested fossil fuel interests that support them remains to be seen.

Links

• Australian project simulates effects of runaway climate change
• Deadly heatwaves will be more frequent in coming decades

‘Like Second-Hand Smoke’: Worst Emitters Least Affected By Climate Change

University of Queensland

Industrial emissions.

Global climate change resembles a room of second-hand smoke, new research has found, with countries emitting the least amount of gasses suffering the most.
The study by The University of Queensland and the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) shows a dramatic global mismatch, with the highest emitting countries – including Australia - the least vulnerable to climate change effects.
Lead author Glenn Althor, a PhD student in UQ’s School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management (GPEM) said, in contrast, the countries emitting the least amount of greenhouse gases were the most vulnerable to effects such as increased frequency of natural disasters, changing habitats, human health impacts, and industry stress.
“There is an enormous global inequality in which those countries most responsible for causing climate change are the least vulnerable to its effects,” Mr Althor said.
“It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the countries with the greatest emissions to act,” he said.
Co-author Associate Professor James Watson of GPEM and WCS said the situation resembled second-hand smoking.
“This is like a non-smoker getting cancer from second-hand smoke, while the heavy smokers continue to puff away,” he said.
“Essentially we are calling for the smokers to pay for the healthcare of the non-smokers they are directly harming.”
The researchers conducted a global analysis of the relationship between a nation’s carbon emissions and vulnerability to climate change.
They found that 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries – including the U.S. Canada, Australia, China, and much of Western Europe – were the least vulnerable to its impacts.
Eleven of the 17 countries with low to moderate emissions were most vulnerable to climate change. Most were found in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
The authors said these countries were not only exposed to serious environmental change such as oceanic inundation or desertification. They were also generally the least developed nations, having few resources available to cope with these issues.
They said the mismatch between the culprits and the affected areas acted as a disincentive for high-emitting “free-rider” countries to mitigate their emissions.
The researchers predicted that the number of acutely vulnerable countries would worsen by 2030 as climate change-related pressures such as droughts, floods, biodiversity loss and disease mounted.
Associate Professor Richard Fuller of UQ’s School of Biological Sciences said the researchers had quantified these inequities using publicly available data.
 “The recent Paris agreement was a significant step forward in global climate negotiations,” he said.
“There now needs to be meaningful mobilisation of these policies, to achieve national emissions reductions while helping the most vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.
“The free rider countries need to do much more to ensure that they bear the burden of coping with climate change impacts.”
The study appears today in the journal Scientific Reports.

Heat To Stay On CSIRO Climate Cuts Amid Claims Malcolm Turnbull Was 'Blindsided'

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

There are claims Malcolm Turnbull was blindsided by the news. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

Leading scientists will use a national conference on Monday to appeal to the Turnbull government to intervene to reverse plans by the CSIRO to eliminate most of its climate roles amid claims the Prime Minister was "blindsided" by the move.
The cuts, that will cleave about 110 positions from the CSIRO's 140-odd strong Ocean and Atmosphere staff and a similar number from its Land and Water division, were announced in an email from chief executive Larry Marshall on Thursday.
Mr Turnbull and his staff "didn't see it coming", a senior CSIRO researcher has been told. The PM "blanched" when given a copy of the news of the cuts, and asked his staff to investigate, another source tells Fairfax Media.

Stormy times for the CSIRO: On board RV Investigator.

Fairfax Media has sought comment from the PM's office.
Scientists attending Monday's start of the joint national gathering of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanic Society and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in Melbourne are expected to call for a halt to the planned cuts which, including other divisions, will total 350 over two years.
"We strongly believe that the proposed cuts to CSIRO will seriously undermine Australia's capacity to respond to the challenges posed by climate change," the scientists say, according to a copy of the proposed statement obtained by Fairfax Media.

The cuts were announced in an email from CSIRO chief executive Larry Marshall.

Scientists leading the call include David Karoly​ from Melbourne University, Roger Jones from Victoria University and Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick from the University of NSW.
"Australia is a continent surrounded by rapidly changing weather patterns, connected to a rapidly changing global climate," the scientists' statement says.
While much has been learnt, there remain many gaps in knowledge, including monitoring changes in the Southern Ocean and how this effects global and regional climate. Another need is to track the changing chemical composition of the atmosphere, including long-term trends based on ice core data, and air quality measurements at Cape Grim in north-west Tasmania, they say.
Senator Richard Di Natale said the Greens plan to use Senate Estimates on Thursday to press Dr Marshall to explain the cuts. The Greens leader also called on the PM to intervene.
"I'd urge the PM to address the situation urgently," Senator Di Natale said. "Our climate science is absolutely critical."
He said Mr Turnbull had inherited a government under Tony Abbott that had attacked climate science, and the PM "has an opportunity to set a different course".
Dr Marshall has said there will be "no net loss" of jobs in two years' time, as other divisions expand. Critics, though, say the dismantling of decades of climate monitoring will be hard to repair and will also undermine the country's ability to participate in international exchanges in climate research.

Links

• CSIRO executives asked to justify deep cuts to climate science
• 'Misleading, inaccurate and in breach of Paris': CSIRO scientist criticises cuts
• Explainer: Why is Tasmania's world heritage area burning?