22/02/2016

CSIRO Cuts Provide Cause For Pause

Sydney Morning Herald Editorial

CSIRO boss Larry Marshall. Photo: Daniel Munoz

The chief executive of the CSIRO is paid to think about the future. Being the head of Australia's premier scientific research body demands thinking deeply about causes and consequences. It requires that you have a fair idea of what might be coming down the pipe, and what to do about it. To be taken by surprise is not a good look.
We can't know, but it doesn't appear that Larry Marshall, the physics-trained, former SIlicon Valley entrepreneur who came back from 25 years in the United States to lead the CSIRO in 2014, paid much regard to the consequences when he set in motion swingeing job cuts of 350 positions over two years, mainly in the Ocean and Atmosphere, and Land and Water units.
The cuts revealed two weeks ago include axing 100 full-time positions out of the 140 scientists in CSIRO's climate monitoring and modelling units. These are dedicated to research in areas such as greenhouse gas levels, sea level rise, ocean temperatures, ocean acidification and stemming global warming.
So, to consequences. Australia's reputation in science has already taken a big hit. The decision has "alarmed the global research community" said 2900 scientists from nearly 60 countries in a letter to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. It showed "a misunderstanding of the importance of the depth and significance of Australian contributions to global and regional climate research", they warned.
Howard Barnsey said: "Losing our ability to participate in large-scale ocean science and observation will ultimately erode Australia's ability to shape the future and influence regional affairs", he said. As Australia's former Special Envoy on Climate Change, and ex-head of the Australian Greenhouse Office, he should know.
Others warned Australia risks being isolated from the community of nations and researchers devoting serious attention to climate change. We will lose the reciprocal access we now enjoy to research done elsewhere, such as in the Pacific, in return for our longstanding expertise in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
The federal government is encouraging youth to study STEM subjects – science, technology, engineering and mathematics – because we don't have enough qualified people to pursue the innovative future the Prime Minister envisages for the nation. The signal from the CSIRO cuts is that studying STEM is a gamble. Dozens of science PhD candidates or post-doctoral fellows who are being supervised by or working with CSIRO scientists will have their research disrupted. A brain drain to overseas is predicted.
The Herald acknowledges that to keep pace in a rapidly changing world, organisations must continually adapt and change, reprioritise and refresh. In current management-speak, you need to be "nimble" and "agile" to stay in the game. Dr Marshall is right to say that resting on laurels is a fast path to mediocrity.
Dr Marshall has indicated he wants to focus on new areas of growth especially those with high prospects for commercialisation such as titanium ink for 3D printing, clean coal and new food strains. But he has, as yet, provided no plausible answer to the question posed by the president of the Australian Academy of Sciences Dr Andrew Holmes: "Why would you want to throw away something that we're good at and that's useful?"
The decision smacks of having been hastily conceived and poorly executed. It is not clear that the CSIRO board even met to discuss it. There appears to be no coherent plan for which jobs will go and why those, nor for the new hires in growth areas which are supposed to claw back the job losses over two years.
Dr Marshall was poorly advised to justify the climate job cuts by saying the question of climate change "has been answered", and it's time to move on to how to mitigate it.
Maintaining climate modelling and monitoring capability as we learn how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and identify climate risks has never been more important. For now, the nation's scientists are scrambling to find homes for crucial research programs and science personnel in other institutions.
Here's a better idea. Dr Marshall should put the cuts on hold. There should be an independent review of what jobs are needed where, taking account of not just his organisation's but the nation's best interests. It may take a little longer, but the precautionary principle requires it. We have much invested, and much to lose. We don't want to be in the position of not knowing what we've got until it's gone.

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Backlash Against CSIRO’s ‘Cowboy’ Chief Larry Marshall

The Saturday PaperMartin McKenzie-Murray

As Larry Marshall signals cuts to various programs, CSIRO staff say he is either out of his depth or has questionable motives – or both.

When the CSIRO’s chief executive sat down last week to write an all-staff email – intended for some 5000 people – he knew he had to mix the good news with the bad. Larry Marshall was restructuring the 90-year-old institution, politically maligned but venerable, and about 350 job losses were slated – a third from those modelling climate change. But Marshall did not mix the bad news so much as bury it. We know this because the email was leaked in an angry contravention of Marshall’s appeal contained at the end of his long missive: “As you absorb this message I hope you appreciate the intent of treating everyone in CSIRO as a trusted insider.”
Within days, a besieged Marshall was offering qualifications while leaks continued from increasingly mutinous staff. “The mood is terrible and Larry doesn’t have the confidence of most staff,” one employee told me. “There are two reasons. The redundancies first, and how these are being handled. But fundamentally, many people are upset because he’s attacking the values and identity of CSIRO.”
This Wednesday, while Marshall was overseas, staff lodged a dispute with the Fair Work Commission, the industrial arbiter.

Visionary or cowboy?
Dr Larry Marshall began as the CSIRO’s chief executive a little over a year ago, in January 2015. He had returned to the country of his birth after spending 25 years in the United States, much of it in and around California’s Silicon Valley, where he managed tech start-ups and invested in emerging technologies. He also lodged 20 patents. Marshall holds a PhD in physics, and describes himself as an entrepreneur and business leader, as well as a scientist.
“I think he’s targeting anything that has been politically inconvenient.”
Marshall has suggested he is almost uniquely qualified to reimagine an institution at risk of ineffectiveness and “mediocrity”. A visionary, a scientist and a businessman. A man as familiar with scientific discovery as he is with dividends. “I’ve run companies through three recessions and 9/11,” he told colleagues last week, “and recognise change can be frightening, but we must embrace it and turn it to our advantage if we want to flourish.”
But his detractors among CSIRO staff – and there are many – have told me they see him as a self-aggrandising cowboy with a dangerous indifference to the values and history of the institution. Is Marshall a brave “disruptor” – a favourite word of his – or a man unsuited to head the public body? Or both?

Public storm
Larry Marshall’s leaked email has become the centre of a public storm. It has been parsed, mocked, qualified. The ruptures within the CSIRO are about much more than an email, of course, but for his critics it is an exhibit of his “destructive” hubris. “Marshall’s language is arrogant and ignorant,” a CSIRO staff member told me, “because he clearly doesn’t understand some of the science, and is not humble enough to acknowledge this. People are angry and upset. They’re disgusted by how he talks about CSIRO. It’s like he has no idea about CSIRO’s history and culture.”
The email is long. Verbose. It is both impassioned and disorganised, powered by a great self-assuredness. It enthusiastically surveys areas of scientific development – big data, clean coal, 3D printing. But the enthusiasm expresses itself in the language of Silicon Valley – one part jargon, one part bravado. “Our investment in precision agriculture combines unique sensors with predictive analytics to help our farming community respond to climate change, and grow their prosperity,” he writes.
For all the vision, there is something numbing about Marshall’s descriptions of health as a “major growth area” and that “keeping someone healthy has major exponential cost savings”. Of course, none of this deadened language, favoured by Silicon Valley venture capitalists and tech gurus, means he is wrong. But it jars with a good portion of his staff.

Concern about cuts
There has been concern among CSIRO staff about cuts to climate modelling. Marshall argues that the science of climate change is clear, and that the organisation must shift to climate “mitigation”. This debate has dominated reporting on the internal ruptures this week, but it is far from the only concern. Staff I spoke with suggest Marshall is fundamentally unsuited to the job because he has disregard for the very notion of public goods – the research that may not occur within the private sector because it’s regarded as unprofitable.
“The general trend seems to be that if you’re not making a lot of money then the research area won’t be supported,” I was told. “One consequence is that much of the public goods stuff is being targeted … The competitive advantage of CSIRO is its long-term research. Developing, over time, the capacity to tackle big problems.”
A spokesperson for CSIRO rejected this, telling me: “Pretty much all of CSIRO’s research activities includes a ‘public good’ – a benefit to the Australian public, either directly or indirectly.
“CSIRO’s function under our act is in part to carry out scientific research to assist Australian industry, further the interests of the Australian community and to contribute to the achievement of the Australian national objectives or the performance of the national and international responsibilities of the Commonwealth. These activities invariably include public benefits and this is so even in those limited cases where we do research under an engagement with a customer on a fully commercial basis.”
Other concerns were shared with me by staff. Some of the CSIRO’s work involves surveying public attitudes – to climate change, say, or aspects of mining. The industry jargon is “social licence to operate”, meaning the broad acceptance of an affected community. CSIRO work also involves contract-based research for private industry. There is nothing inherently improper about any of this. Surveying public attitudes is useful, while contract-based research is conducted independently and under peer review. The concern of some scientists, however, is that these arrangements may become corruptible in the future if the pressure to profit is increased. “Contract work is part and parcel of modern research and is of course not morally questionable in itself,” a staff member told me. “For instance, improving acceptance of developments like mining or coal seam gas isn’t necessarily wrong. But you must make sure that the governance structures are the right ones so that the independence can be ensured. Sometimes when you push the need to make money, there’s an adverse effect on the governance.”
The CSIRO spokesperson said the organisation has strong policies and procedures in place, “irrespective of whether the research has been funded by the government or from commercial sources”, and cited the employment of internal peer review for any report or publication for the public as a step before submission to review by the broader scientific community. Regarding “social licence to operate” topics, the spokesperson said the CSIRO’s research is conducted according to the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research and must be approved by an ethics committee.
“We believe this is a critically important contribution we can make in future,” the spokesperson said. “In addition to peer review, we are also assuring the independence of our work through appropriate governance mechanisms.”
But alarm was triggered among some staff when they read Marshall’s pledge to the resources sector in his email. “Commodities are the bedrock of our nation,” he wrote, “and we will always support that industry especially now in times of declining prices when innovation can fundamentally change the game.”
It struck some as strangely partisan. Staff I spoke with were not dismissive of mining. They respected its economic importance, but believed Marshall’s commitment struck a bum note – the CSIRO’s support of resources should be along purely scientific lines.
It conformed to the suspicions of one scientist I spoke to, who felt that the axed programs – Liveable, Sustainable and Resilient Cities; Biodiversity Ecosystems; and Adaptive and Economic Systems – were politically targeted. “If you read between the lines with some of the cuts, it’s as if the politically inconvenient areas are being trimmed,” I was told. “Climate science, social science and biodiversity. He hasn’t properly explained why these are the areas being targeted.”
The source went on to say Marshall “doesn’t understand social science. He thinks the future is in hacking Facebook and Twitter pages. I think he’s targeting anything that has been politically inconvenient or any research that is perceived to have a left-wing bias.”
When I asked the CSIRO why, in one of the world’s most urbanised countries, they did not have an urban research program, I was told that its functions were reflected in other areas. “While there may not be a specific research program carrying that title, CSIRO’s research does indeed contribute to the understanding, management and planning of the urban environment. Research done in any area of CSIRO from manufacturing to IT has applications to the urban environment.”

Crisis awaits
As I write, Dr Marshall is flying back to Australia. He will arrive amid crisis. Morale is low and industrial action is being pursued. The CSIRO spokesperson told me that the organisation will “work at communicating more clearly and directly to staff, and be clearer about intentions – it is a cultural change and it is inevitable that not everybody will be able to make that change”. This might underestimate the depth of rancour. I spoke with people who were practically eulogising their institution.
“An outrageous thing here is that this seems to have been a captain’s call,” a CSIRO staff member said. “I suspect there was no documentation about cuts and I doubt we will ever find out the real reasons. There was no consultation. It seems Larry doesn’t want to be limited by the rules.
“Some think that he’s treating CSIRO as his own private company. CSIRO is an important and proud national institution. So it’s a very odd fit. I don’t want CSIRO to be undermined and it needs to be supported into the future.”

Flying Blind: Navigating Climate Change Without CSIRO

Climate Council - Will Steffen

Planned cuts to CSIRO's climate science division would breach Australia's commitments under the Paris agreement and leave a gaping hole in the world's understanding of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, our new report has found.
Flying Blind: Navigating Climate Change without the CSIRO examines the local and international ramifications of the recent decision to cut over a hundred jobs from the agency's climate science staff.

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT

KEY FINDINGS
1. The cuts to CSIRO's climate science will damage Australia's ability to understand, respond to and plan for a changing climate.
  • Governments and business rely on climate science to make billion-dollar decisions. Without it, they will be relying on guesswork. For example, the design of Brisbane Airport's new runway, built on a low-lying coastal fringe, was informed by the latest sea-level science from the CSIRO.
  • Climate modelling is the backbone of our ability to predict changes in the climate system, information that is vital to adapting to climate change and to building preparedness for our worsening extreme weather events. Cutting further model development will leave us dangerously exposed to the escalating risks of climate change.
  • Farmers and firefighters will be particularly exposed if Australia's climate science capabilities are reduced. CSIRO research is assisting farmers with tools and technologies to manage during more frequent and severe droughts. Climate science also supports bushfire responses by providing the knowledge underpinning high fire danger weather warnings and fire behaviour predictions.
2. If the cuts proceed, Australia will have already reneged on a key promise in the Paris climate agreement.
  • Australia, along with the rest of the world's nations, agreed to strengthen climate science as a fundamentally important component of meeting the climate change challenge.
3. The cuts will leave a gaping hole in the international science community's ability to understand climate change in the Southern Hemisphere.
  • Australia has the strongest climate research capability in the Southern hemisphere. Without it, the ability of the international scientific community to understand the changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation in this hemisphere, and what this means for the risks of climate change in our part of the world, including Australia itself, will be significantly diminished.
  • Almost 3000 scientists across 60 countries have written an open letter to highlight how these cuts will significantly limit CSIRo's capacity and diminish the global climate change research effort.
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