Longest Global Coral Bleaching On Record Isn’t Over Yet

Climate Central - Brian Kahn

Coral reefs have had a rough run over the past two years. Climate change has ratcheted up ocean temperatures and El Niño helped kick them into overdrive in parts of the world. All that heat kicked off what has been a major coral die-off around the globe.

Coral bleaching alert levels over the past 30 days.

Credit: Coral Reef Watch

While El Niño has passed its peak, scientists have warned that the global coral die-off, known as coral bleaching, is still far from over. What began in 2014 is projected to continue through this year and even into early 2017.
This is the third global bleaching event on record. The others were in 1998 and 2010, both El Niño years. El Niño, which is marked by warmer than normal waters in the tropical Pacific, has certainly played a role. The steady background creep of ocean warming due to climate change, however, is also an important factor. More than 90 percent of the accumulated heat due to climate change is ending up in the oceans and its effects are being acutely felt.
"We are currently experiencing the longest global coral bleaching event ever observed," Mark Eakin, the Coral Reef Watch coordinator, said in a statement.
The prolonged exposure to high water temperatures has left many reefs in critical shape. The warm water causes corals to expel the algae they rely on to grow, leaving ghostly white skeletons in the place of thriving coral communities.

Coral bleaching forecast for March-June.

Credit: Coral Reef Watch

The Pacific Ocean has been the epicenter of the global bleaching event and Christmas Island has been the tiny bullseye of that epicenter. The 150 square mile island sits right in the middle of the El Niño-warmed waters.
Coral there have been subjected to some of the most stressful conditions anywhere in the world. Specifically, El Niño sent water temperatures as high as 88°F, or about 6°F above normal, in the region. That extended period of stress had already killed off a wide array of corals when Kim Cobb, a coral expert at Georgia Tech, visited the reef in November during peak El Niño heat.
And though waters are cooling as El Niño ebbs, Cobb is expecting to see even more devastation when she returns to Christmas Island next month. She's using crowdfunding for the trip because of the rapid response nature of the work and the wealth of information she and other scientists can learn from.

Airport Reef in American Samoa at the height of a bleaching event in February 2015.

Credit: XL Catlin Seaview Survey

"I call it the data collection opportunity of an academic career," she said. "How this reef evolved through this mega El Niño (represents) this incredible opportunity because we know we may face more extremes in the future."
The data Cobb plans to collect will provide valuable insight into which corals survive this extreme heat event. With climate change expected to keep warming oceans, those types of insights could be key to conservation efforts, not just at Christmas Island but around the world.
And while Christmas Island should experience a reprieve with oceans returning to normal temperatures around the region later this year, other areas will continue to feel the heat. The odds are increasing for a La Niña event later this year. While that means cooler-than-normal waters for the eastern and central tropical Pacific, it ramps up temperatures in the western edge of the basin around Indonesia and the Papua New Guinea.
That area is known as the Coral Triangle, an ecologically crucial spot for coral, fish, turtles and other sea creatures. It's already under threat from the current global coral bleaching event and could face even higher risks if La Niña materializes.

Links

• These Coral Reefs Are a 'Crystal Ball' For Future Change
• Clues in Coral Hint at Looming Temperature Spike
• Hot Oceans Are Killing Coral Reefs Around the World
• Bleak Picture of Great Barrier Reef's Changing Chemistry
• Paris Pact Promotes But Complicates Carbon Trading
• Study Reveals Stunning Acceleration of Sea Level Rise
• The Human Fingerprints on Coastal Floods

Tassie Fires Linked To Human-Induced Climate Change, Study Finds

ABC Science - Anna Salleh

Unprecedented bushfires burned out about 20,000 hectares of Tasmania's World Heritage Area last month. (Supplied: Dan Broun)

Bushfires in Tasmania are happening more frequently now than in the past 1,000 years, and human impacts on climate are likely to blame, researchers say.

Key points: Bushfires in Tasmania are more frequent now than in the past 1,000 years This is linked to southward migration of westerly winds This southward movement has been linked ozone depletion

Scientists said the increase in bushfires on the island was due to the shift of westerly winds towards Antarctica, a trend that has previously been linked to depletion of the ozone layer.
"My conviction is that the current trend is evidence of anthropogenic forces," said Dr Michael-Shawn Fletcher of the University of Melbourne, who studies long-term interactions between humans, climate and vegetation.
A belt of westerly winds north of Antarctica brings rain to southern parts of Australia including Tasmania. The movement of these winds north and south is known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).
During a negative SAM, westerlies move north, but during a positive SAM the winds move south and drier conditions prevail on land.
Previous research has linked a shift towards a positive SAM and the southward shift of westerlies, with depletion of the ozone layer, which affects the upper atmosphere.

Positive SAM linked to increased fire frequency
In the first ever study of its kind, Dr Fletcher and PhD student Michaela Mariani found the southerly shift in westerlies was associated with an increase in fire activity in south west Tasmania.
Their study included an analysis of charcoal deposits from fires over the past 1,000 years in an area of western Tasmania that includes areas where fires are currently burning.

Large-scale fire events in Tasmania in the past have been very rare and we're beginning to see them more frequently ... There's evidence we're seeing anthropogenic climate change. Professor David Bowman, fire ecologist, University of Tasmania

The researchers compared the amount of charcoal at different time periods to changes in SAM and found there was more charcoal at times when the westerlies had shifted southward.
The rise and fall in the amount of charcoal closely matched the SAM index, with a steady rise in both charcoal and the SAM index since around 1500, and a particularly steep rise in recent times.
"Correlation isn't causation," said Dr Fletcher. "But it's a well-described phenomenon that ozone depletion has caused a positive trend in SAM and we've got clear evidence that the SAM index in the 21st century has exceeded anything that's occurred in the last 1,000 years."
The researchers also found a close match between actual SAM and fire records on a shorter time scale, over the past 30 years.
"If you have a dry autumn, winter, spring you've got more fires in summer," said Dr Fletcher.
The research has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters.

Current Tassie fires in study area
Dr Fletcher said while the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on fire frequency has recently been recognised, relatively little attention has been paid to the impact of SAM.
"We've ignored the fact that in Tasmania, at least, fires are also modulated by this other system," he said.
He said the current fires are likely to be a result of a combined effect of ENSO and SAM.
"What we have here in this current year is the fifth strongest El Nino event on record and the second positive SAM event on record," said Dr Fletcher. "It's a double whammy."

SAM could act as an 'early warning'
A related report appearing this week in the journal Environmental Research Letters argues that it is hard to predict fire activity in Australia because of its highly variable climate.
However senior author Professor David Bowman, a fire ecologist from the University of Tasmania, welcomed Dr Fletcher's research for showing the role SAM can have in providing "early warning" of bad fire seasons.
"You can't predict precisely, but you can use climates modes like SAM to help you forecast bad fire seasons," said Professor Bowman. "It's just a guide, but it's important."
Professor Bowman said claims that humans are increasing fire frequency were supported by different lines of evidence over long time periods over time.
"Large-scale fire events in Tasmania in the past have been very rare and we're beginning to see them more frequently," he said. "There's evidence we're seeing anthropogenic climate change."

Links

• Tasmanian bushfires: Senate calls for independent inquiry into World Heritage Area fires
• Number of bushfires per week in Australia 'increased by 40 per cent' between 2008 and 2013
• Stronger winds chilling Australia's rainfall

Solar Is So Hot Right Now. Check Out The Latest Numbers

Grist - Melissa Cronin

Flickr/Intel Free Press

The solar energy industry is absolutely crushing it right now. For the first time ever, more solar power capacity was installed in the U.S. last year than natural-gas capacity.
The U.S. solar market grew by 17 percent in 2015, according to new figures released by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), and it's expected to grow even more. The growth is a record-breaker, amounting to 7,286 megawatts of solar photovotaics installed.

SEIA also released a state-by-state breakdown of solar installations in 2015. California remains, unsurprisingly, in first place, followed by North Carolina and Nevada. But other states, like Utah and Georgia, saw huge strides last year and are quickly climbing the list. And individual homeowners are starting to hop aboard the solar train by the droves: the residential solar market grew 66 percent, and now represents its largest share of the overall market since 2009.
The fact that solar is now outpacing natural gas is good news for climate hawks and for anyone who dislikes massive, polluting leaks that spew rotten-smelling fumes into populated areas. The barriers to entry for solar are quickly crumbling, with the price of installing new panels plummeting in recent years. Giant companies like Apple are boarding the solar bandwagon, signing enormous contracts to snatch up incredible amounts of solar power for their facilities.
The boom in solar is largely due to the federal solar Investment Tax Credit, a measure meant to incentivize both residential and commercial solar installations. Late in 2015, Congress voted to extend a 30 percent tax credit through 2019—a move that came as a godsend for the solar industry. At least until then, it looks like solar is poised to keep on soaring, as more people realize that clean air and the general stability of the planet are things that we all desperately need.

Links

• Arabian Gulf could become hell on Earth if we don't lower emissions
• Does this smog make me look fat? Study links air pollution and obesity
• China to shut down 1,000 coal plants this year
• The $250 billion health benefit of fighting climate change
• Urban soil emits a surprising amount of CO2
• Climate change is already causing dramatic flooding in the coastal U.S.
• Chinese waste-to-energy plant will be a mile in circumference
• Congress' tax breaks for clean energy will go a long way
• China is kicking America's butt on wind energy
• Watch Al Gore explain why he's optimistic about climate change
• While the planet broke heat records, we broke driving records
• Investors flock to food and agriculture technology
• A climate scientist who decided not to fly
• Want to fight climate change? Here are the 7 critical life changes you should make
• Obama may have the power to compel more climate action — and that has Republicans worried
• Big Oil could be hit with a wave of oil company bankruptcies
• The world's first zero-carbon city is a big failure
• Can climate change cause wars?

How to Keep Companies Honest About Fighting Climate Change

Time - Justin Worland

Business represents the next frontier in efforts to address climate change

Steam rolls out of a factory's smoke stack in Dayton, Ohio. J.D. Pooley—Getty Images

Going green is the latest corporate trend—but it can be tough to separate the companies that are actually making major environmental commitments from those that are just giving lip service to the cause.
Now that Walmart, Google, Goldman Sachs and other international corporations have pledged to cut their carbon footprint—commitments that would have been almost unimaginable a decade ago—climate leaders are turning their attention to the next challenge: ensuring that companies follow through on their promises. That's the aim of a new effort spearheaded by the U.N.'s recently appointed climate champion, French climate change ambassador Laurence Tubiana. She hopes to build a system that measures corporate efforts to address climate change, with non-governmental organizations playing a role as fact checkers.
"All sorts of institutions have registered their various commitments," says Mark Kenber, CEO of The Climate Group, an advocacy group that works with dozens of corporations. "Some of those were real commitments and some of those were high level 'we'll think about doing something.' How do we find a common set of methodologies and monitoring, verification and reporting systems so things can be compared?"
Tubiana, a key figure at the Paris climate conference in December, is still determining the form of the future transparency system, but here's how climate policy experts say you should evaluate a corporate climate commitment:

1. Support from top executives
Strong climate commitments should be approved at a company's highest levels with consent of the board of directors. Such high-level commitment helps ensure that the company leadership sees addressing global warming as a key part of the corporate strategy and will be less likely to abandon commitments on a whim.

2. Concrete goals
Companies should also make their goals concrete and offer a plausible path to meet them. That means an assessment of where across the supply chain—including in transportation and products purchased from outside vendors—carbon emissions come from and a plan to address those specific issues. And, while reasonable goals may only extend a decade or so into the future, companies should have a plan to reassess and strengthen them going forward.
"Good environmental management is good business management," says Tom Murray, who runs the corporate partnerships program at the Environmental Defense Fund. "A big part of that is setting big goals and delivering on that."

3. Transparent reporting
Perhaps most importantly, climate policy experts say companies should report on their progress transparently and offer a way for external experts to verify the information. In some ways, outside verification is easy. Top-tier accounting firms like Deloitte and KPMG have developed methods to audit companies' sustainability efforts. But the audits come with a hefty price tag, and companies are often unwilling to add to their bottom line without a strong business incentive.
Once a transparency system has been implemented, and companies begin to comply, policy experts will gain a sense of how much progress has been achieved by the private sector toward cutting greenhouse gas emissions. One estimate from the Climate Group suggests that a commitment from the world's 1,000 biggest companies to go 100% renewable would result in a 15% global reduction in carbon emissions. Around 50 companies have signed up already, including a slew of household names like Johnson and Johnson, Starbucks and Microsoft.
Just a decade ago, opposition to new regulation from corporate leaders made it difficult to address climate change. Some companies allegedly went as far as obscuring evidence supporting the existence of climate change.
Today, corporations are more likely to take on carbon emissions as a serious issue. They're partly motivated by the strong argument that climate change could wreak havoc on the global economy, destroying the markets that many companies need to sell their products and services. A 2015 report from financial services firm Citigroup found that keeping temperature rise to 2.7ºF (1.5ºC) instead of 8.1ºF (4.5ºC), the do-nothing scenario, in the coming decades would minimize global GDP loss by $50 trillion. Companies have also realized there's a lot to be gained from switching to low-carbon technologies, including a long-term reduction in energy costs.
"Right now we're seeing companies step up and be supportive of climate policy in a way that I think is new and goes beyond what they've done before," says Murray. "If you think about leadership being a curve, people are working their way up it."

Links

• Air Pollution Kills More Than 5 Million People Around the World Every Year
• Oceans Are Rising at Fastest Rate in 3,000 Years, Study Says