27/02/2016

Overlooked Law Could Be Powerful Tool To Fight Climate Change, Scholars Say

Columbia Daily SpectatorDan Garisto

Michael Gerrard, professor of climate law, is the director of the Sabin Center on Climate Law. Ethan Wu / Senior Staff Photographer

Attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been a key struggle for President Barack Obama, CC ’83, with both houses of Congress led by Republicans who have outright opposed even acknowledging the existence of climate change.
But a Columbia-led team of legal scholars may have found a promising, never-before-used route for enacting emission reductions that was previously overlooked. The Sabin Center for Climate Change Law published an article last month that details how Section 115 of the Clean Air Act can be used to compel the United States to cut emissions—without going through Congress.
When the article was released, Obama’s plan to reduce greenhouse emissions by 25 percent, the Clean Power Plan, was still going forward, albeit under intense legal scrutiny. But earlier this month, the Supreme Court issued an unprecedented stay to prevent the plan from moving forward.
Atrianne Dolom / Staff Designer

“I thought it was the most environmentally destructive thing the Supreme Court has done in very many years,” Michael Gerrard, a professor of environmental law and co-author of the article, said. “It was shutting down the most important effort that the U.S. was undertaking to deal with the world's most pressing environmental problem.”
The drama surrounding the Clean Power Plan’s judicial struggles increased, as only days later, conservative Justice Antonin Scalia died.
Without Scalia on the court, the vote will likely be tied 4-4, making Scalia’s replacement the deciding vote.
However, according to Gerrard, using Section 115 of the Clean Air Act would allow Obama or the next president to bypass both the congressional and judicial gauntlet.
“The Clean Power Plan has limited coverage—it only applies to power plants. It doesn’t apply to any other part of the economy,” Gerrard said. “We wanted to see if there was some other legal pathway that might allow the administration to regulate greenhouse gases.”
Under Section 115, the Environmental Protection Agency can force states responsible for polluting other countries to cut emissions so long as those other countries agree to cut their own emissions. Agreements made at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference between 195 countries to reduce carbon dioxide production could make this reciprocity clause easy to fulfill.
In addition to the ability to bypass Congress, a regulation on the basis of Section 115 would also be supported by strong, broad language that could render judicial attacks null.
“[Congress] did not limit this use to bordering countries—and if you follow a textualist analysis, like Justice Scalia said he did, the plain text of it is quite broad,” Gerrard said.
Previously, Section 115 had been overlooked by lawyers because it was assumed to apply only to Canada and Mexico, the two countries bordering the U.S. The only previous attempt to use Section 115 occurred at the end of the Carter administration, and was promptly squashed when Reagan entered office.
Section 115 was subsequently out of the public eye and thought to be inconsequential.
“We saw it as something of a sideshow, but we decided to look into it more deeply, and the deeper we dove into it the more fruitful it became,” Gerrard said.
However, the scholars’ analysis, while promising, holds little potential for immediate change. Enacting regulations based on Section 115 would take a great deal of planning that Gerrard said was unlikely to happen due to the Obama administration’s investment in the Clean Power Plan.
“I think it's a very helpful tool for an administration that wants to act on climate change but can't get the help of Congress,” Gerrard said. “If Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders is the next president, they may well utilize this.”

Once-In-A-Generation Heatwaves Could Be A Yearly Event, New Research Finds

news.com.au - Benedict Brook

The sun rises on another hot day in Sydney.

IT’S been a sticky old week across southern Australia with the mercury topping 41C in the west of Sydney and severe heatwaves in parts of New South Wales and northern Western Australia.
But far from being an unusual occurrence, climate scientists are predicting heatwaves globally are on the rise with extreme heat events, which previously only occurred “once in a generation”, could happen every year.
And that means more than just some extra days at the beach, with predictions of more bushfires, stretched emergency services and severe impacts to farmers and food production.
In a paper published in the journal Climatic Change, researchers found heatwaves only experienced once in every 20 years could, in years to come, happen every year in some places. By 2075, 60 per cent of the Earth’s land mass could see these extreme heat events annually or even more frequently.
By 2050, heatwaves could be three degrees warmer across half the world and across 10 per cent of the Earth’s surface a scorching five degrees hotter.
The Bureau of Meteorology predicts Australia will almost certainly have above average temperatures during March. Source: BoM.



Fifth warmest year
The study’s co-author, Claudia Tebaldi, from the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research said “Mitigation is crucial. We have a lot to gain from limiting greenhouse gas emissions, and [those] benefits will be felt fairly soon,” reported Climate Control.
Although the northern hemisphere is more likely to be in the firing line, there’s little respite for us in Australia with a marked increase in heatwaves and their intensity, climate researchers have said.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) warned daytime temperatures during Autumn were likely to be warmer than average, particularly in March.
According to the BoM’s annual climate statement, 2015 was Australia’s fifth warmest year on record with temperatures 0.83C above average and exceptionally warm spells including heatwaves across north and central Australia in March and south and south eastern Australia in the latter part of the year.
Heatwave conditions in Australia are defined by three days of unusually hot minimum and maximum temperatures for any given area.
Beachgoers walk into the sea at Coogee on Thursday in Sydney as temperatures peaked at 41C in the city’s west. Photo: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images.



Longer and more extreme
Speaking earlier this month, Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, of the University of NSW’s Climate Research Centre, said the trend was for longer and more extreme heatwaves.
“We’re seeing heat and hot weather we’ve never seen before that [is] breaking lots of records.
“We’re not expecting to see heatwaves last all summer but those really rare heatwaves we might only have seen every 20 years we could now see every two years, which may not have happened if climate change hadn’t occurred.”
However, the pattern of heatwaves wasn’t uniform, said Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick. Sydney had seen its heatwave season kicking in three weeks earlier, as had Melbourne — although the latter hadn’t seen an overall increase in the number of days experiencing extreme heat.
In Canberra, they really can’t bear it, with a doubling in the number of heatwave days although the intensity had remained stable.
The new research said if nations cut emissions, 95 per cent of land areas could see a reduction in worst-case temperatures on extreme heat days by 1C while half the earth’s land mass could see a 2C cut. Areas severely affected by heatwaves might drop to between 10 and 25 per cent rather than the 60 per cent predicted.
More than 100 countries have pledged to work towards keeping temperature rises to below 2C by the end of the century.
The only way to cool down. Photo: Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images


Cooking the planet
Activist group GetUp!’s Climate Change Campaigns Director, Sam Regester, said it was not surprising that the globe was seeing a rise in heatwaves and nations needed to do more to prevent climate-induced catastrophes.
“More extreme weather events mean more bushfires and natural disasters and emergency services are just not equipped to deal with once in a generation heatwaves every few years.
“It also puts a huge stress on farmers. In some heatwaves we see entire seasons of crops destroyed and unless we address climate change, food security becomes a real and urgent problem and we won’t be able to take abundant fresh food for granted.”
While 2015 was one of Australia’s hottest years on record, overall temperatures have been reducing, coming off a record peak in 2013. Aren’t things going in the right direction already?
“You just have to take a step back and look at the long term trends of 30 years in a row of above average temperatures,” said Mr Regester. “There’s no question — the world’s getting hotter and getting hotter at a dangerous rate.
“We need to transition urgently away from fossil fuels that are literally cooking the planet and move to 100 per cent renewable as fast as possible.”
While Australia’s south-east corner is in for cooler temperatures this weekend, with Sydney topping 28C on Sunday and Melbourne only reaching 23C, there are still spots of punishing heat elsewhere. Brisbane will reach 35C on Sunday with Perth sweltering with a whopping 38C the same day.
Global Weirding
Global weather really is getting more extreme - with bigger, badder storms and droughts every year. Is the sun to blame? Welcome to the new terrifying world of global weirding.

CSIRO Becoming A 'Glorified Consultancy', As Climate Adaptation Program At Risk

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Labor senator Kim Carr says some CSIRO answers to Senate estimated 'defied belief'. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

The drive to increase the share of CSIRO funding from external sources is turning Australia's premier scientific research institution into "a glorified consultancy", Labor's shadow industry minister Kim Carr said.
Senator Carr said the current round of job cuts, which will fall particularly hard on the CSIRO's climate change programs, revealed a distortion of the organisation's mandated role.
Of the roughly $500 million raised each year from external sources, only about $70 million came from the private sector. Since the bulk of the remainder came from federal agencies, the CSIRO is vulnerable to sharp cuts to funding - as has occurred during the Abbott-Turnbull years, Senator Carr said.
Fiji, hard hit by Cyclone Winston last week, has had Australian help with climate projection. Photo: APO


"Setting external [funding] targets is a farcical way to determine priorities," Senator Carr said. "It's an attempt to turn the CSIRO into a glorified consultancy."
"It's an assault on public benefit research and distorts the priorities of public-good science."
Senator Carr said he plans to hold the CSIRO management to account for what he viewed as misleading comments made at Senate estimates by Chief Executive Larry Marshall earlier this month.
When asked by Senator Carr whether CSIRO had reimposed external revenue targets, Dr Marshall, according to Hansard, replied: "We do not have a target."
"Claiming that they don't have external revenue targets defies belief," Senator Carr said.
The CSIRO told Fairfax Media that it plans to correct the record.
"The [Senate] hearing covered the topic of external revenue with questioning covering the time period of more than a decade," a CSIRO spokesman said. "Having reviewed the Hansard record, CSIRO believes that there are some parts of the Hansard record that could benefit from some clarification and is preparing a letter to the Chairman of the Committee."
"I'm deeply disappointed that it's taken so long to correct the record," Senator Carr said.
The CSIRO has been under pressure to explain the rationale behind plans to slice 350 jobs, with about 200 of them to come from Oceans & Atmosphere and Land & Water divisions. Many of jobs to go are climate scientists.
Dr Marshall has said that, since climate change had been proved, more funding could be spent on efforts to curb future global warming by limiting carbon emissions. Additional spending could also go to prepare for adaptation efforts to the future changes, such as more extreme weather, that are virtually inevitable.
Insiders, though, say that adaptation programs, such as the 18-member climate projections team, are at risk.
"It seems to be a strange place to start pruning," Lynne Turner, an associate professor at the University of Southern Queensland, said.
Prof Turner, formerly head of Queensland's Climate Change Centre of Excellence before it was closed when Campbell Newman's Liberal National Party took office in 2012, said every regional natural resource management group in the country used CSIRO's climate projections to inform their long-term planning.
"It's hard to turn that capacity on and off like a tap," Prof Turner said, adding CSIRO's modelling of projected changes to temperature, sea level, rainfall and extreme events was also a service to poorer neighbours in the South Pacific.
"These are highly vulnerable countries, with low technical expertise, which have been highly reliant on a big countries like Australia," she said.
Independent MP Andrew Wilkie is also likely to pursue Science Minister Christopher Pyne's answer to him in Question Time this week that while CSIRO would make 350 people redundant, "350 positions will be opened up".
Land & Water staff were told in an all-staff meeting this week that new hires were dependent on the division meeting revenue targets. Any shortfall could see further cuts, a senior scientist told Fairfax Media.

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