27/03/2016

Scientists Fly Glacial Ice To South Pole To Unlock Secrets Of Global Warming

The Guardian

High on Mont Blanc, huge ice cores are being extracted to help researchers study the alarming rate of glacial melt
Scientists on the Col du Dôme site on the slopes of Mont Blanc. Photograph: Bruno Jourdain/LGGE / OSUG / UGA

In a few weeks, researchers will begin work on a remarkable scientific project. They will drill deep into the Col du Dôme glacier on Mont Blanc and remove a 130 metre core of ice. Then they will fly it, in sections, by helicopter to a laboratory in Grenoble before shipping it to Antarctica. There the ice core will be placed in a specially constructed vault at the French-Italian Concordia research base, 1,000 miles from the south pole.
The Col du Dôme ice will become the first of several dozen other cores, extracted from glaciers around the world, that will be added to the repository over the next few years. The idea of importing ice to the south pole may seem odd – the polar equivalent of taking coals to Newcastle – but the project has a very serious aim, researchers insist.
Earth's glaciers are now melting at a unprecedented rate as a result of global warming – and that poses a serious scientific problem. As ice forms on a glacier, it encloses small bubbles of air that contain a sample of the atmosphere at that time. From these samples, scientists can measure atmospheric concentrations of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane over periods that range from hundreds to tens of thousands of years into the past.
"Ice cores are like books," said project leader Jérôme Chappellaz, of the Glaciology Laboratory in Grenoble. "Each year a new layer of ice is put down and adds a page to that book, one that records data from a particular year of the glacier's life. It tells us what concentration of gases and pollutants were in the atmosphere at a particular time. And the deeper we go down into the glacier, the further back in time we travel. Unfortunately, as our glaciers melt, the pages of these books – both the ancient and the more recent ones – are being destroyed."
As a result, Chappellaz has set up the Saving Ice in Danger project [PDF], which aims to collect ice core samples and keep them for future analyses. "We are setting up the archive to prevent precious information about past climate change from being wiped from the face of the planet," he added. "This is a race against time."
An indication of the rate at which glaciers have been warming in recent years is provided by measurements that were taken between 1994 and 2005 on the Col du Dôme glacier. Researchers found that temperatures at the heart of the glacier rose by 1.5C in that decade, a rate that would melt the glacier totally in a few decades.
Nor is the problem confined to Europe. Across the globe, ice is disappearing at a staggering rate as rising carbon emissions bring global temperatures to record levels. The snows of Kilimanjaro have melted more than 80% since 1912, for example, while researchers fear most central and eastern Himalayan glaciers could disappear by 2035. Glacier National Park in Montana once contained 150 glaciers. Today there are only a couple of dozen and in a few decades nearly all the park's glaciers are likely to have disappeared, scientists have warned.
Project leader Jérôme Chappellaz examines a sample. Photograph: Lucia Simion

The need to protect the precious information locked into the ice of these glaciers has become urgent, said Chappellaz. In a few weeks, he will co-ordinate the removal of the first ice core – from Col du Dôme, 4,350 metres high on the Mont Blanc massif – that will be taken to the Saving Ice in Danger vault in Antarctica. Next year, a core will be extracted from the Illimani glacier in Bolivia – which has been identified as the most threatened glacier in the Andes – and sent to Concordia.
"Speed will be critically important," said Chappellaz. "We have to ensure there is minimal thawing before getting a core to a freezer. In the case of the Col du Dome core, we will helicopter it straight down the mountain to a cold store at ground level before shipping it to Antarctica.
"Illimani is too high for helicopters so we will have to employ porters to carry sections down – but only at night when temperatures are low enough to prevent thawing."
Other glacier sites that have been targeted by Saving Ice in Danger include the Colle Gniffetti glacier on the Swiss-Italian border; the Huascaran glacier in the Andes; the Guliya glacier on the Tibetan plateau; the East Rongbuk near Mount Everest; and Mount Cook in New Zealand.
"With the exception of glaciers in the Western Himalayas, all the world's great ice sheets are losing ice at an alarming rate and we are to have to act very quickly," said Chappellaz.
The problem for the project is funding, however. "We cannot apply for standard science funding because we are not carrying out research," he added. "We are trying to preserve a source of data for future research and so we are having to apply to private donors – fortunately with some success. The Prince Albert of Monaco Foundation has given us €2m to begin the project."
As a result, scientists hope that in three or four years, a steady supply of ice core samples will be arriving in the vault at Concordia. And given that the average temperature at the site is around minus 50C, there is little danger that a power failure might lead to catastrophic thawing of samples. "This is one of the coldest places on Earth," said Chappellaz. "We should be safe there for a while."

Core facts
Freshly harvested ice from the Mont Blanc site. Photograph: Bruno Jourdain, LGGE / OSUG / UGA

Studies of ice cores have played a key role in demonstrating that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have a strong influence on climate change. They have shown that low concentrations occur during cold times and high concentrations in warm periods. This is entirely consistent with the idea that temperature and carbon dioxide levels are intimately linked and that each acts to amplify changes in the other.
"We see no examples in the ice-core record of a major increase in carbon dioxide that was not accompanied by an increase in temperature," says the British Antarctic Survey on its webpage on ice cores and climate change.
As ice cores provide the data that has established this link, they have therefore played a key role in understanding how carbon emissions are driving global warming. Ironically, it is the impact of these emissions that now threatens this crucial source of data about our climate.

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Spike In Global Temperature Fuels Climate Change Fears

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Each of the past 10 months has been a record for global surface temperatures, a US agency says. Photo: Planetary Visions Ltd

The world has lurched closer to the 2-degree global warming limit in recent months, prompting calls by scientists for clearer policies aimed at making Australia and other rich nations carbon-emissions neutral before 2050.
February's spike in global temperatures lifted temperatures to 1.21 degrees above the 20th century average, and were the biggest departure from the norm in 137 years of records. Temperatures over land were 2.3 degrees warmer than average, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
There are reasons to be optimistic but there also reasons to be terrified 
John Connor, CEO, The Climate Institute
So far this year, 2016 is looking like no other in history, American meteorologist Eric Holthaus noted in an article for the FiveThirtyEight website this week. (See chart below.)

The first half of March was also the hottest on record for Australia with the rest of the planet also on track for more record heat, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
Climatologists such as Stefan Rahmstorf​, from Germany's Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, say the big El Nino event in the Pacific is topping up the background warming from climate change by about 0.2 degrees.
A woman walks past a solar-power street light near a giant coal-fired power station in the central Chinese province of Shanxi. Photo: Getty Images

Complacency should be avoided, therefore, when the mercury's record run inevitably ends in coming months as the El Nino unwinds.
"It's important to take this hot spike as a reminder that this is a really urgent problem" said Professor Rahmstorf, who until last week was also a visiting professorial fellow at the University of NSW. "We are running out of time to avoid a 2-degree world."
The UK Met Office estimated last year we are roughly half way there, based on the estimated average of the 1850-1900 period.
Carbon emissions from energy use have plateaued over the past two years, the IEA says. Photo: act\ian.warden

Professor Rahmstorf said another half a degree of warming is already locked in - even without short-term fluctuations - taking us to the lower end of the 1.5-2-degree limit agreed on by almost 200 nations last December in Paris.
To keep under that mark, the world must reach carbon neutrality - storing as much as emitted - by the second half of the century with developed nations reaching that level by 2050 or sooner, experts say.
Concern and optimism
Pep Canadell​, executive director of CSIRO's global carbon project, said the latest data on atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and emissions offer cause for both concern and optimism.
Last year, CO2 levels measured at NOAA's Mauna Loa site in Hawaii jumped 3.05 parts per million, the fastest increase in 56 years of observations.
Dr Canadell said the leap was made worse by the El Nino. The unusual heat and drought conditions led to vegetation taking up less CO2 than usual, while also creating conditions for the huge fires in Indonesia that blanketed much of south-east Asia for months and exceeded emissions from the whole of the US.
On the plus side, emissions from burning fossil fuels for energy have plateaued for the past two years, the International Energy Agency said earlier this month.

China's decreasing coal consumption - down 2.9 per cent in 2014 and 3.7 per cent last year - is a major reason for the stall in emissions growth.
China delivered as much as 90 per cent of the growth in CO2 since 1990 and "can make this go the other way", Dr Canadell said.
Another contributor has been the rise in renewable energy, with new wind, solar and hydro accounting for about 90 per cent of additional electricity generation in 2015, the IEA estimates.
"Renewables have turned out to be an unexpected success story," Professor Rahmstorf said.
However, cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases from other sectors of the economy - such as agriculture and industry - will be harder to achieve.

Slowdown is over
Stephen Sherwood, an atmospheric scientist at UNSW-based ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, said the recent surge in warming indicates the slowdown in surface temperature increases of the past 10-15 years is over.
"We knew that was never going to last," Professor Sherwood said, referring to what had been dubbed a "warming hiatus". "We're back on track to where the models were predicting."
Despite facing "an emergency in slow motion," political leaders have largely failed to take major steps to start cutting emissions, he said. "We're not even fighting the battle, so of course we're losing"
John Connor, chief executive of The Climate Institute, said putting a price on carbon was necessary to send "clear signals to the big emitters to take responsibility for their emissions".
"We don't have a clear policy of decarbonising our energy system,"he said.
While there's still time to avoid 2 degrees warming, Australia and other nations "have been given a massive hurry along by the huge extremes we're seeing now," he said.
"There are reasons to be optimistic," Mr Connor said. "But there also reasons to be terrified."