17/04/2016

Great Barrier Reef: The Scale Of Bleaching Has The Most Sober Scientists Worried

The Guardian - James Woodford*

Australia’s world heritage site is the largest living thing on Earth. But warm water driven by El Niño is bleaching the reef, and a recent report calls for it to be listed as in danger
A scuba diver encounters a sea turtle on the Great Barrier Reef, north Queensland. Photograph: Steffen Binke/Alamy

I pulled on my mask and dropped off the back of the boat into the warm water above Nursery Bommie, a dive site at Agincourt Reef more than 70km offshore from Port Douglas, in far-north Queensland, Australia. It is widely regarded as one of the most spectacular tourist reefs in the area.
As soon as I could start to make out the immense shadow of the bommie (an outcrop of coral reef) looming before me I could see that all around its flanks and on the summit, covered in just a metre of water in some places, were blemishes of white.
The closer I got, and the more I looked, it was clear there were white patches everywhere. The bleached colonies ranged from tiny plates, shaped like an upturned hand, to areas the size of a table top. Even more striking than the snow white corals was that all around them were other corals coloured in gaudy fluorescent hues that I had never before seen on such a scale. It was as if a masterpiece of nature had been repainted with a colour scheme more befitting a pound shop.
What I was seeing beneath me was evidence of an environmental disaster that has been unfolding over the past few months – the largest mass coral bleaching event ever recorded in this region. This bleaching is the result of a huge El Niño that has driven warm water into the western Pacific Ocean, smothering coral with temperatures beyond their tolerance.
I have dived hundreds of times, with different teams of scientists, along the reef. I have seen the aftermath of other mass coral bleaching episodes such as the most recent major event in 2002.
Bleached corals at Agincourt Reef. Photograph: James Woodford

In my past experiences of bleached corals, the effect is patchy and, while one area is devastated, another will be mysteriously untouched. Yet the scale of this bleaching event has even the most sober and senior coral reef scientists worried. If the rhetoric from marine biologists is to be believed, then the Great Barrier Reef is now in the grip of a “bommie apocalypse”.
As I continued to dive the Nursery Bommie, the fluorescent pinks, blues, purples and greens became more abundant. While these colours might look striking, they signify that the symbiotic relationship between corals and their zooxanthellae, the photosynthetic algae, has broken down.
The fluorescent colours are always there but in healthy coral colonies the colours of the algae overwhelm those of the host coral, giving them their more typical reddish and brown hue. It is true that not all corals fluoresce, but if they have to survive for too long without the algae then bleaching becomes a death sentence.

Put simply, the majority of the corals on this bommie – bleached or fluorescent – were clearly dead or dying. And it was not only the hard corals. All around were soft corals, still swaying like spaghetti in the ebb and flow of the ocean, that were white and ghostly. Most striking was that the bleaching was not just near the surface, where the water is warmest, but at depths of tens of metres where huge colonies of coral were white as well.
I swam towards a wall of reef off the stern of the boat. As I approached I saw that the seafloor was covered in fragile staghorn corals. Such a patch would normally have been the highlight of any dive to this area but now, bleached white, it was merely more evidence that a catastrophe was under way. Dismayed, I swam back to the boat.
On board was an eclectic collection of reef stakeholders including Imogen Zethoven, the director of the Great Barrier Reef campaign for the Australian Marine Conservation Society, who had also made the dive.
“I was shocked,” she said. “I had expected some patches of bleaching surrounded by mainly healthy, colourful corals. I saw the opposite.
“For decades, scientists and conservationists have been warning that climate change is an existential threat to the Great Barrier Reef and all the world’s corals. We know what needs to be done: a rapid transition to 100% renewable energy; an end to fossil fuel subsidies; the phasing out of coal-fired power stations; and keeping coal in the ground.”
While the mass bleaching is caused directly by an El Niño, which pushes warm water to the east Australian coastline, many scientists believe climate change is making the El Niño worse and more frequent, and this is coupled with a general rise in sea temperatures caused by global warming.
Also on board the dive boat was the chief executive of the Queensland Tourism Industry Council, Daniel Gschwind. The reaction of his organisation to the current bleaching requires a balancing act – on one hand, highlighting the need to protect the enormous value of the reef to the Australian economy, worth a conservative AU$6bn (about £3.25bn) a year, while on the other, making sure that tourists are not scared off by alarming news. “The Great Barrier Reef is Australia’s most important tourism asset,” he said.
We dived at a second site at Agincourt Reef that day, at Castle Rock. Again, the underwater seascape was devastated by bleaching, and the scale of the devastation was beginning to sink in.
Scientists report that the same scenes are being replicated along a 1,000km section of the reef, more than a third of its total expanse. Of 500 reefs between Cairns and Papua New Guinea surveyed during this current episode, 95% have experienced significant coral bleaching – only four reefs showed no impact.
Prof David Booth, head of the Australian Coral Reef Society, the world’s oldest coral reef society, and representing some of the nation’s most respected marine biologists, said he had never seen scientists so worried.
“The visual is shocking but so is the disconnect between the severity of the bleaching and the decisions by governments to approve coalmines and coal infrastructure,” he said. “Australia is like a drug dealer for climate change – selling all this coal, but all the while knowing the harm we are doing.”
This particular bleaching event will end once the waters begin to cool. What scientists don’t know yet is how many of the corals will die, quickly being covered in a brown algae that tourists will not want to pay to see.
But there is still room for optimism. These areas can and will recover as long as the scale and frequency of bleaching does not increase. And some other areas that have been devastated in the past decade by destructive threats – such as cyclones and crown-of-thorns starfish – are now recovering well. The reef is always a mosaic of damaged, recovering and stable areas that are constantly changing with environmental conditions.
Coral has evolved to deal with attacks from nature. The question is: can it survive all the cumulative assaults from humans?

*James Woodford is the author of The Great Barrier Reef (Pan Macmillan). His trip was funded as part of a partnership between the Australian Marine Conservation Society and Oris

Links

Delaying Shutting Power Stations Will Bring Big Disruption Later: Climate Institute Research

The Conversation

Electricity emissions have risen by 5.5% in the past two years due to increasing demand and the scrapping of Labor’s carbon price. David Crosling/AAP

Modelling done for the Climate Institute indicates that without big policy changes Australia’s path to zero emissions from the electricity sector by 2050 would mean huge disruption after 2030.
The report, “A Switch in Time: Enabling the electricity sector’s transition to net zero emissions”, warns that a weak policy now means big adjustments later, and calls for a range of initiatives including a program to progressively shut down power stations.
Electricity emissions are about 30% of Australia’s total emissions. They have risen by 5.5% in the past two years due to some increasing demand and the scrapping of Labor’s carbon price.
Climate Institute CEO John Connor said the modelling found that a modest carbon price rising to $40 per tonne by 2030 would result in emissions reductions similar to the Coalition government’s 2030 target of 26-28% below 2005 levels.
But “this would result in almost no replacement of existing high-carbon power stations with clean energy; a 60% collapse in projected clean energy growth from 2020 followed by stagnation through most of the 2020s, and 98% of the sector’s 30 year carbon budget used up in the first 10 years”.
This meant that the action on climate after 2030 would have to be more extreme, Connor said.
“More than 80% of the coal-fired generation fleet would have to be closed in less than five years, and new clean energy capacity would have to jump four fold and keep rising. The impact of such a disruptive shift would be felt across the economy.”
The government currently has a “direct action” policy, while Labor is crafting a new version of emissions trading and related policies with the details still to be announced. The government plans a 2017 review of the policies needed for its 2030 and longer term targets.
The Climate Institute calls for the systematic retiring of existing high carbon generators on a timeline that would have them all stopped by 2035. The policy should facilitate replacing them with zero or near zero emission energy, it says.
There should be a well funded structural adjustment package for communities affected by the closures; energy efficient policies to minimise costs to energy users and further reduce emissions; and a carbon pricing mechanism capable of scaling up over time that provides a signal to investors.
“There is a low probability that a price of sufficient strength and reliability will emerge quickly”, so the other measures proposed would be needed to deliver a timely transition, the report says.
The report estimates the additional cost to build and operate the new power infrastructure would be about $50 billion over the 30 years 2020-2050. But it argues the disruptive costs to jobs, communities and energy security of other approaches would be more than this.
The preferred approach would represent an increase in retail energy prices of 3% a year although bills would not go up by this much if energy efficiency was improved.
The report says that while both major political parties “have acknowledged the need to achieve net zero emissions, existing climate and energy policies provide no prospect of reaching this goal”.
The research was done by leading electricity market modeller Jacobs to test the ability of policy options under discussion to reduce electricity emissions in line with the Paris commitment to limit global warming to 1.5-2°C.

Links

Climate Change: Tassie Fires

ABC Catalyst - Mark Horstman

We like to think Tasmania is a refuge from climate change – a cool green island at the bottom of a warming world.
But this summer may have seen a tipping point.
The unprecedented number and size of fires ignited by dry lightning in Tasmania are no longer 'natural' events.
Conditions are so dry that the soil itself is burning.
Ecosystems normally too wet to burn are going up in smoke.
1000 year old World Heritage forests face irreversible loss.
Is this what climate change looks like?



Links