Flooding is a 'humanitarian crisis waiting to happen'
Flood damage in low-lying Miami could be the most costly in the world Getty
More than a billion people will be at risk from flooding caused by climate change in just a few decades' time, a leading charity has warned.
Christian Aid says that huge numbers of people in coastal cities would exposed to rising seas, flooding, extreme weather and storm surges by 2060.
The urban poor – a demographic expected to grow in coming years -
would be hardest hit, the charity said, in a “humanitarian crisis
waiting to happen”.However, the report says a widespread catastrophe was not inevitable and protective measures implemented now could negate the worst effects.
If trends continue, many of the places likely to be hardest hit will
be in Asia, but the US will also badly suffer the effects, according to
the paper.
South Asia will be the hardest hit, with the Indian cities of Kolkata
and Mumbai, and the Bangladeshi city of Dhaka, predicted to have the
largest populations – all of at least 11 million people - exposed to
coastal flooding by the 2070s.
Severe flooding hits India 2015
Cities in East Asia – Guangzhou and Shanghai in China, Ho Chi Minh
City in Vietnam, Bangkok in Thailand and Myanmar’s Yangon - are also
likely to have populations of millions at risk of flooding.
All of these places are characterised by rising inequality, the
report said, and it is the “poorest people with the fewest assets who
have the most to lose”.
Miami, with 4.7 million residents, is the ninth city in terms of
populations at risk, but the most at risk in financial terms, with more
than $3.5 trillion assets predicted to be exposed to extreme weather and
flooding by 2070. New York’s assets, predicted $2.1 trillion, are third
most at risk.
Chinese cities are also set to take a "financial hammering”.
In Europe, the low lying Dutch cities of Amsterdam and Rotterdam are ranked the 14th and 15th most at financial risk.
London is deemed a “vulnerable city” by the report, at risk from
tidal and surface flooding -- a result of rain pressure on the city’s
drainage systems. There is also risk from water shortages because of an
increased population, water demand and drought.
The report also highlighted how women are worse affected by men in
climate related disasters and said a “gender responsive” approach to
planning and preparation was critical.
Christian Aid called for a community led response to develop skills
and preparation measures. It also said at least $1billion should be
invested by the international community into infrastructure measures in
the most vulnerable places. The group also said “every effort” should be
made to meet the Paris climate targets but that the world should also
prepare for “loss and damage”.
SORRY, folks. The news is not good.
This
weather is only getting more extreme, natural disasters are getting
increasingly more deadly, and we puny humans seem pretty content to sit
back and accept our murky fate.
The World Bank has issued a warning to
major cities around the world that we're underprepared for major risks
from extreme weather and other hazards, which will only intensify due to
population growth and surging migration.
By 2050, 1.3 billion people and $AU217 trillion in assets will be affected by worsening river and coastal floods alone.
The report says many city officials have no clear idea of the range of disaster risks they face and how serious they could be.
A
combination of sea-level rise and sinking of coastal cities, including
from excessive extraction of the groundwater, could drive disaster
losses in 136 coastal cities from $US6 billion a year ($A8.1b) in 2010
to $US1 trillion a year by 2070.
In Indonesia, for instance,
chances of flooding from overflowing rivers is expected to grow 166 per
cent over the next 30 years, while coastal flooding risk could rise 445
per cent.
Nepal's capital Kathmandu could see a 50 per cent rise in earthquake risk by 2045 as more slums and informal buildings go up.
Overall, the message is clear: parts of the world are pretty screwed. What does this mean for australia?
The
report identified rising sea levels, extreme heat and drought as some
of the biggest natural disasters that will affect Australia over coming
years.
"Sea-level rise is an extremely important influence on evolving hazard," it says.
"It
contributes more to increased storm tide heights in Victoria,
Australia, than higher wind speeds. This suggests that storm surge risk
is likely to increase under climate change, despite the remaining
uncertainty around regional changes in cyclone frequency and intensity."
The
report also stressed the importance of addressing extreme heatwaves,
which Australia, of course, is renowned for. It warned that, since
they're already a prime driver of mortality, and since long-duration
temperature extremes lead to drought, this could trigger climate-related
human migration.
Australia is already seeing an increase in its number of heatwaves. Source: BOM
While
we're reasonably lucky when it comes to hazards like earthquakes and
volcanoes, we're already seeing an increase in the number of heatwaves.
Dr
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a research fellow at UNSW's Climate Change
Research Centre, told news.com.au that many people don't seem to realise
that heatwaves have killed more people than any other natural disaster,
so much so that she dubbed it the "silent killer".
"By 2050, this
will have huge implications for public health and infrastructure," she
said. By 2050, Sydney and Perth can expect 15 more heatwaves per season,
with Melbourne and Adelaide between five and 10.
She said that
heatwaves get more frequent going north, but more intense going south,
meaning the whole country is more or less affected one way or another.
Meanwhile,
The Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO project the number of extreme fire
weather days will grow in southern and eastern Australia by 100 and 300
per cent by 2050 compared to 1980 to 1999.
What are heatwaves?
Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick stressed that a key part of the problem was
Australia's attitude to heatwaves, and climate change more broadly.
"There's
this whole culture where we're like 'Just suck it up'," she said. "We
need a culture shift. You look at the trade industry where people are on
rooftops building houses in 40 degree heat, because if they don't work
they don't get paid. We need to take heatwaves more seriously, accept
that it's happening, so we can change the course of the century."
Extreme heatwaves will be a growing problem for Australia over the next few decades. Source: News Corp Australia
She
warned that on the east coast residents of western Sydney would be the
most vulnerable. It's the hottest part of the city, being further away
from the ocean, and a hotspot for rapid population growth.
Reports
in the past few years have estimated that Australia's population will
reach 42 million by 2050, with about eight million of these people
living in Sydney. The World Bank said there's a correlation between
population growth and natural disasters.
Earlier this year, the
Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer
Communities predicted that our nation's natural disaster bill will
triple to $33 billion by 2050, which is 50 per cent greater than
previous estimates.
This was based not only on the physical impact
of natural disasters, but the social impacts such as mental health
issues, chronic disease and alcohol misuse as a result.
Australian
Red Cross Director of Australian Services, Noel Clement, said this
filled a critical gap in the research on medium and long-term impact of
disasters on Australian communities.
"Governments, business and
communities need to work together to address the medium and long-term
social impacts of natural disasters through further investment and
research into community resilience programs," he said.
Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick shared this view.
"The Budget barely mentioned climate change — that speaks volumes," she said.
"The CSIRO debacle speaks volumes too.
"We
need to adapt. We need to prepare our hospitals so they can be ready
when a heatwave occurs. We need education for the elderly, who are the
most vulnerable to heatwaves. We need to shift towards mitigation and
adaptation."
The world is underprepared for natural hazards, and Australia is not immune. Source: News Limited
In
the 2016 Budget, it was announced that the Clean Energy Finance
Corporation (CEFC) and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA)
would refocus their activities "towards the government's innovation
agenda".
The CEFC will be responsible for allocating $1 billion in
existing funding over 10 years to establish a Clean Energy Innovation
Fund. The fund will provide money to assist emerging clean energy
technology become commercially viable. The fund will be jointly managed
by ARENA, which will also continue to manage its existing portfolio
through the new fund.
Climate change at the centre of this year's election.
Environment groups, such as the Australian Conservation Foundation
and the Australian Youth Climate Coalition, expressed their
disappointment with the government's response to tackling climate change
in the Budget, with the latter pointing out that the "Budget provides no new funding for renewable energy".
Regardless,
Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick said we're already locked in for a set amount of
change by 2050, meaning that, even if we did take drastic measures to
lower our carbon emissions, we wouldn't be free from the effects of
what's already been done.
That's a scary thought.