One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts Is In Denial About The Facts Of Climate Change

The Conversation - John Cook

Malcolm Roberts was number 2 on the Pauline Hanson's One Nation ticket. AAP Image/Dan Peled

The notion that climate science denial is no longer a part of Australian politics was swept away yesterday by One Nation Senator-Elect Malcolm Roberts.
In his inaugural press conference, Roberts claimed that "[t]here's not one piece of empirical evidence anywhere, anywhere, showing that humans cause, through CO₂ production, climate change".
He also promoted conspiracy theories that the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology are corrupt accomplices in climate conspiracy driven by the United Nations.


His claims conflict with many independent lines of evidence for human-caused global warming. Coincidentally, the University of Queensland is releasing a free online course this month examining the psychology and techniques of climate science denial. The very first video lecture addresses Roberts' central claim, summarising the empirical evidence that humans are causing climate change.

Consensus of Evidence (from Denial101x course)

Scientists have observed various human fingerprints in recent climate change, documented in many peer-reviewed scientific papers.
Satellites measure less heat escaping to space at the exact wavelengths at which CO₂ absorbs energy. The upper atmosphere is cooling at the same time that the lower atmosphere is warming – a distinct pattern unique to greenhouse warming. Human activity is also changing the very structure of the atmosphere.

Human fingerprints in climate change Skeptical Science

Not only do these unique fingerprints confirm humanity's role in recent climate change, they also rule out other potential natural contributors. If the Sun caused global warming, we would expect to see days warming faster than nights, and summers warming faster than winters.
Instead we observe the opposite: nights are warming faster than days, and winters are warming faster than summers, which is a greenhouse pattern predicted by John Tyndall as long ago as 1859.
Similarly, if global warming were caused by internal variability, we would expect to see heat shuffling around the climate system with no net build-up. Instead, scientists observe our climate system accumulating heat at a rate of more than four atomic bombs per second.

Climate patterns confirm human causation and rule out natural causes Skeptical Science

Our scientific understanding grows stronger when many independent lines of evidence all point to a single, consistent conclusion. In the case of climate change, the "consensus of evidence" has led 97% of climate scientists to agree that humans are causing global warming.
The scientific consensus on climate change has also been endorsed by many scientific organisations all over the world, including the national science academies of 80 countries.

National Academies of Science endorsing human-caused global warming Skeptical Science

Is it a conspiracy?
How does one dismiss a global scientific consensus built on a robust body of empirical evidence?
There are five characteristics of science denial. These common traits are seen when people reject climate science, the benefits of vaccination, or the research linking smoking to cancer.
The techniques of denial are: fake experts; logical fallacies; impossible expectations; cherrypicking; and conspiracy theories. This is summarised in the acronym FLICC.

The five characteristics of science denial (from Denial101x course)

Climate science denial and conspiratorial thinking are often found together. A well-known example is that of Donald Trump, who has dismissed climate change by blaming it on a Chinese conspiracy.
Several studies have linked climate science denial and conspiratorial thinking. If a person disagrees with a global scientific consensus, they’ll typically believe that the scientists are all engaging in a conspiracy to deceive them.
Malcolm Roberts’ conspiracy theories have been well documented and were once again on offer in yesterday’s speech. He espouses a conspiracy that encompasses the CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology, international banking families, the United Nations and Al Gore.
Unfortunately, I am not optimistic that the evidence for human-caused global warming will persuade Malcolm Roberts. The scientific evidence from psychology tells us that scientific evidence is largely ineffective on those who dismiss climate science with conspiracy theories.
My own research found that communicating the science of climate change to those who exhibit conspiratorial thinking can even be counterproductive, activating their distrust of scientists and strengthening their denial of the evidence.
Furthermore, conspiratorial thinking is self-sealing. When conspiracy theorists are presented evidence that there is no conspiracy, they often respond by broadening the conspiracy to include that evidence. In other words, they interpret evidence against a conspiracy as evidence for the conspiracy.
Our course on climate science denial will be much more useful to those who are open to scientific evidence and curious about the research into the causes and impacts of climate change and the psychology of climate science denial.

Links

• The things people ask about the scientific consensus on climate change
• It’s true: 97% of research papers say climate change is happening
• The science for climate change only feeds the denial: how do you beat that?
• There is no such thing as climate change denial

Statement on Senator-elect Malcolm Roberts and Climate Science

Climate Institute

The Climate Institute makes progress in tackling climate change possible.

Senator-elect Malcolm Roberts has made a number of statements regarding climate science and empirical evidence.
There is abundant evidence that heat trapping greenhouse gases are in the atmosphere at record levels, this is causing the climate to change, and this is impacting on natural and human systems now.
Insiders host Barrie Cassidy referred to an email sent by TCI to Insiders ahead of the program.
Here are some of the facts highlighted in that email:

1. On empirical evidence, 80 academies of science around the world have confirmed the mainstream science of climate change. The Australian Academy of Science published an extensive analysis – their chapter on human causes of climate change is here. It shows the evidential pathways for establishing the human contribution to climate change and that recent climate change can’t be understood without an impact from human activities. It dismisses suggestions that volcanic and solar impacts overwhelm human impacts in recent times.
2. More detail from the thousands of scientists involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process (yes, a collaborative effort – but one across multiple disciplines of science) is here. This has been reviewed and accepted by over 190 governments.
3. No one denies CO2 can be helpful for plant growth and our planet would be an ice ball without it (and has been at low levels) but any drinker on a Friday night can tell you - you can have too much of a good thing. Empirical measurements show that CO2 in the atmosphere is 40% higher than before the industrial revolution (see p11 here).
4. Warming theories aside, empirical evidence is showing the ocean, which is absorbing large amounts of the extra CO2 in the atmosphere is having a straight chemical effect with noticeable increase in acidification, explained well by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority here.
5. Science has established since 1859 the atmospheric heat trapping qualities of CO2 – John Tyndall – more of it will increase warming…
6. His closing line with Rafael Epstein ABC 774 (6/8/16) on UN “definitely” trying to establish global government through climate change is demonstrably false at the very least in the current Paris Framework. The Paris model is nationally driven where targets countries adopt are formally called “nationally determined commitments”. Countries determine what they want to commit to. Some are OK, most are inadequate like Australia’s, and some are downright shabby like Saudi Arabia – no global control there…
7. An important backgrounder on the Senator-elect from The Guardian’s Graham Readfearn is worth reading: here.
8. If it’s not a coordinated conspiracy, a term he appears to rail against, it is a remarkable effort from those banking families he fears – everyone, including the Pentagon, are apparently toeing the line.
9. A nice simple 5 min Youtube video on this from the scientists at Skeptical Science including reference to empirical evidence here. John Cook provides more detail in this piece on The Conversation 5 August 2016.
10. It is worth asking the Senator-elect why he thinks 2015 was the warmest year on record, why 2014 was, and why this year is heading to break that record again. These facts, and more empirical evidence, were set out by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration three days ago, their State of the Climate Report here.  

The Climate Institute published a primer on Carbon in 2012 and can connect you with climate scientists should you require.