Drones for Climate and Security

The Center for Climate & Security - Sinead O’Sullivan

A UN Unmanned/Unarmed Aerial Vehicles (UAV)  at Goma airport for UN Peacekeeping Operations MONUSCO/Sylvain Liechti

In their initial conception, drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), were used exclusively in the context of military missions – providing reconnaissance, intelligence and surveillance in hostile environments unsafe for human involvement, with a new weapons capability. While drones are still popularly perceived in their military context, their uses have spread far beyond those applications. Drones are expanding rapidly in the commercial side of the aerospace industry, and significant technology transfer is moving from the drones’ military beginnings and into the hands of the civilian consumer.
One space where drones straddle military and civilian applications is in regards to a changing climate and the security consequences that follow. This is especially the case in regards to earth observation and disaster management.

Earth observation
Earth observation (EO) in the context of climate and security can be manifested in several ways, and generally involves collecting data about particular environmental conditions. Drones are proving useful for the collection of climate change related data that has been historically very difficult to record. One such example is the use of drones to measure the rate at which glaciers in the Peruvian Andes are diminishing.
Traditionally, pole markers are placed over the glacier and changes of the glacier are recorded by physically walking the glaciers, and extrapolating information in between. Now this data collection takes minutes to collect instead of months, and data analysis can be performed immediately. Creating this data so quickly and more accurately than before is changing the way that climate scientists are able to create models and forecasts in such an unpredictable climate. This strategy, being implemented by Ohio State University, is aimed at creating a template for research teams that are investigating water security in other areas of the world with much larger populations, including China and India. In these areas, data collection is currently inhibited by both economic and environmental constraints and the global consequences of water insecurity are much more severe.
Related to human security, EO drones are now being used to monitor human rights violations and predict climate-related conflict in high-risk areas. Food and natural resource shortages due to climate change are exacerbated by a population increase, further straining regional capacity to provide human security in some areas. In the Republic of South Sudan, the cultivable land area is being negatively impacted by climate change. Large-scale land use changes have been monitored by EO techniques, and quantifying these changes has shown linkages between the right to access land and conflicts in 2011. Serving as one of the frictions that led South Sudan into war during its attempted transition towards independence, it is shown that being able to use EO to create models that can help predict climate-exacerbated conflict is critical.

Disaster management
The process of climate change, and the increasing scale of natural disasters that encompasses this change, is triggering complex patterns of human mobility and natural resource allocation– both key drivers of instability to international security threats. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (SPIDER) have identified the importance of national and international agencies strengthening their disaster management to reduce these threats. The disaster management process refers to the creation of long-term, sustainable plans through which communities can diminish their vulnerability to natural and humanitarian hazards and disasters. There are four main steps involved in the process: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.
Natural disaster management is becoming increasingly important both domestically and globally. Drones have shown examples of being a critical technology for the preparedness and response stage of disaster management, by both monitoring climate conditions that are used to forecast disasters and by providing real-time data on the field immediately after a disaster.
In Nepal for example, the amateur drone organization Humanitarian UAV Network was able to map the earthquake-destroyed city of Kathmandu and surrounding areas with drones when most other official communications- human and technological- had failed due to the disaster. Being able to map a disaster-stricken area allows the flow of information and thus aid to the most impacted areas, drastically lowering the cost and risk of response missions and reducing the negative long-term impact on the victims. Furthermore, drones are being tested to monitor and track human migration through disasters from the initial response phase to the recovery phase where mass migration is unpredictable and threatens human security. With an increasing number of large-scale natural disasters due to climate change, finding an effective implementation of disaster management that integrates all of the technological platforms available is becoming a global imperative.

Conclusion
We are faced with a new era of climate change leading to unpredictable weather patterns, increased large-scale disasters and a strain on access to natural resources. As the severity of this phenomenon increases, the impact is being felt through international tensions, a reduction in the global economy and threats to domestic and international security. Governments must work intrinsically to build domestic capabilities to deal with such changes, but also recognize that this is a universal problem that will only be mitigated through international cooperation.
Access to readily available data is a significant prerequisite for comprehensively mitigating climate risks to national and international security. As technological capabilities increase, international institutions, governments and publics should seek to implement advanced data collection methods through drones. In this way, the international community can become more versatile in how it helps prevent and respond to the security implications of a changing climate in a secure, economic and timely manner.

Links

• A Storm Without Rain: Yemen, Water, Climate Change, and Conflict
• Six Conflict Prevention Takeaways from New Climate and Conflict Research
• CIA Director on the Geopolitical Risks of Climate Geoengineering
• Do We Need a New Climate Risk Regime?
• General Keys: The military thinks climate change is serious

Many Countries Will Need Help Adapting to Climate Change

New York Times - The Editorial Board

Eleni Kalorkoti

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported last week that global temperatures last year were the highest on record — and that this year is likely to be hotter still. That is a powerful reason for rich countries to begin making good on their promises to help low-lying island nations, some of the poorest countries in the world, build their defenses against the disastrous effects of climate change, which some are already experiencing.
In the Solomon Islands, receding shorelines have destroyed some villages and rising sea levels have submerged five uninhabited islands, according to a study published in May. Drinking water is becoming increasingly scarce in Kiribati, another Pacific Ocean nation, as wells run dry or become contaminated by saltwater. And droughts appear to have become more intense in Africa and the Middle East and are probably a contributing factor to the migration of millions of people to Europe in recent years.
At last year's United Nations climate summit meeting in Paris, countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, a point beyond which the widespread drought, flooding and extinctions of species are expected to kick in. But even if the world meets that target — and the various national plans offered in Paris to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are still not strong enough to get there — many poor countries will still be vulnerable to warmer temperatures, higher sea levels and more frequent natural disasters. Some small island nations could disappear entirely in the coming decades.
While it's hard to connect any single natural disaster to climate change, weather-related calamities worldwide have increased in recent years. There were an average of 335 such disasters a year between 2005 and 2014 — nearly twice the yearly average from 1985 to 1994, according to a report by the United Nations and the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. And these disasters are more severe and more likely to displace people, according to a 2015 report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center and the Norwegian Refugee Council. Last year, about 19.2 million people fled their homes because of disasters.
Developing countries will not be able to make the investments needed to survive conditions brought on by global warming — nor should they have to do so alone, as a matter of fairness. Poor countries are responsible for only a small share of all greenhouse gas emissions. Industrialized nations bear the greatest responsibility for climate change. It is also in their interest to help the rest of the world adapt, because experts expect that tens of millions to several hundred million people will be displaced by climate change. Most will move within their countries, but some of them inevitably will seek refuge in developed nations because they have no other place to go.
In 2014, the world's leading powers and institutions, like the World Bank, committed about $25 billion to help developing nations adapt to climate change, according to a United Nations report published in May. Developed countries have said that they will increase their support, to $100 billion a year starting in 2020, to help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. That promise was made at the climate meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 and reaffirmed in Paris. (Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, was a major force behind the 2009 pledge.) But that falls far short of the United Nations report's estimate that between $140 billion and $300 billion a year will be needed for adaptation by 2030.
Some of that spending would go toward building warning systems like those that exist for tsunamis, as well as stronger barriers against storm surges. Developing countries will also need to improve water conservation and flood management, restore wetlands and strengthen building codes.
Increases in temperatures and sea levels are likely to reduce agricultural yields, forcing more people to migrate to crowded cities. That's why political leaders need to start making policy changes that could take years to have an impact — like helping farmers switch to other crops and investing in infrastructure and housing in urban areas. While the world ponders ways to reduce emissions, the consequences of climate change are already underway.

Links

• International report confirms Earth is hot and getting hotter
• Five Pacific islands disappear as sea levels rise
• The human cost of weather related disasters
• Global Warming & Climate Change

Seven Ways Climate Change Affects Our Health

Huffington Post - Katharine Hayhoe



Climate change is making heat waves stronger and more frequent, air pollution worse, and allowing vector-borne diseases to expand their range. It's also compromising our drinking water, causing more extreme weather events, and impacting our mental health. And the costs will be great: just this June, the World Health Organization estimated that in the twenty years after 2030, climate change will cause "approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress."

1. Heatwaves
Thanks to climate change, we're already seeing stronger, longer, and more frequent heatwaves. People — particularly the very young and very old — don't cope well with in these conditions. In 2003, some 70,000 people died in the European heat wave, and last summer more than 2,000 perished in India and southwest Asia. But the problems from heat aren't just happening on the other side of the globe. Here in the U.S., people who spend a lot of time outdoors — farm workers, construction crews, even athletes — are feeling the effects of warmer days. The Texas Rangers want to build a new billion-dollar stadium with a retractable roof, an expensive feature that owner Ray Davis called "a must to counter the scorching heat in the summer." But most people don't have the resources to spend to adapt to new conditions like that, and so instead will just suffer in the heat.

2. Air Pollution
Air pollution, whether it's the heavy smog that shrouds Los Angeles or the fine dust that burns our lungs in China, isn't causing climate change. But climate change is making air pollution worse! And the stakes are high: air pollution already causes an estimated 7 million premature deaths across the globe each year. Air pollution is made up a variety of things, including ground-level ozone, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide, and when we breathe those in, we get sick. As the planet grows warmer due to climate change, the reactions that form ground-level ozone — one of the most dangerous things for us to inhale — happen faster. And climate change also affects our weather patterns. As the earth grows warmer, we're seeing more high-pressure systems. And a high-pressure system stuck over an area can trap local pollution and particulate matter, preventing it from being blown away, and so the area's residents will keep breathing it in.

3. Vector-Borne Diseases
What do zika, chikungunya, dengue, and malaria have in common? They're all vector-borne diseases spread by mosquitos. And insect ranges are often determined by climate. So if climate is changing, that means the geographic extent of many of these diseases will, too. In some cases, a disease could move into a new region where it's never been seen before, like we're seeing in Canada with Lyme disease, a devastating condition that used to be so unusual north of the border, it wasn't even on Health Canada's list of treatable diseases. In other instances, as it gets warmer a disease could move out of its current region — like our research has shown is likely to be the case for dengue in Texas in the summer. And in yet other cases, a disease could re-emerge in a place where it was eradicated a century ago — like malaria in Chicago.

4. Water-Borne Diseases
Climate change is also leading to more deaths from diarrhea, which is already the second leading cause of death for kids under five around the world. How is that, you may wonder? Well, a warmer atmosphere speeds up the hydrological cycle, leading to more periods of extreme precipitation. Heavier rainfall often means higher risk of flooding. And flooding — particularly in nations where drinking water is at risk of being contaminated with garbage, animal manure, and even human waste — can be deadly. "Runoff from more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events will increasingly compromise sources of drinking water through increased introduction of pathogens and prevalence of toxic algal blooms. As a result, the risk of human exposure to agents of water-related illness will increase," says the 2016 Climate and Health Assessment.

5. Extreme Weather Hazards
Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, heavy downpours, and flooding, all of which can affect our health and well-being, and we're seeing more of them as the climate changes. These events can harm or even kill us; they can prevent us from getting the medical care we need, turning a trivial concern into a life-threatening illness; and they can sweep away cars, homes, businesses, and harvests. "Earth has always experienced epic storms, debilitating drought, and biblical floods. But lately it seems the treadmill of disruptive weather has been set to fast-forward," writes Paul Douglas, a professional meteorologist and — like me — someone whose faith motivates his concern on this issue. Let's zero in one just one type of extreme event: a hurricane. There are all sorts of risks that crop up in the aftermath of a hurricane. If your power goes out and you have to run a generator in your house, you run the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning if you don't set the generator up correctly. Or let's say it's flooding and your car gets swept away and you run the risk of drowning. Thanks to climate change, we're seeing more hurricanes and so are more exposed to these risks.

6. Our Mental Health
Climate change, and the increasing risk of weather extremes that accompanies it, has a direct impact on our mental well-being. "Many people exposed to climate related or weather-related disasters experience stress and serious mental health consequences ... [including] post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and general anxiety," says the 2016 US Climate and Health Assessment. Last year, when I was working with the city of Boulder on climate preparedness, an emergency room doctor told me that extreme weather is one of the biggest challenges they face in counseling people with long-term mental health issues. If a patient misses one appointment due to snow, flooding, or other situations that prevent travel, there is a big chance they will fail to keep their next one, and the next, and their problems — some of which may have been on the road to recovery — will resurface in full force. That's not all, though. Sometimes just thinking about climate change can overload us. As the American Psychological Association says, "mental health impacts of actual and perceived climate change include stress, anxiety, apathy, and guilt." When we view climate change as a huge global issue and we are only one human, we can be overwhelmed by fear, anxiety, and despair. But acknowledging those feelings is the first step to dealing with them.

7. Political Instability And Conflict
The seventh and biggest way that climate change affects our health is something you might never have thought about before — through its impact on the political stability of failing states and nations. These past five years have shown in brutal clarity how a nation like Syria already teetering on the brink — due to decades of conflict, corruption, and mismanagement of its natural resources — can be pushed over the edge into disaster. Did climate change cause the Syrian refugee crisis? No. There were many factors at play. Did climate change contribute to it? Yes, it did. As one scientific study concludes, "Human-induced forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 two to three times more likely than by natural variability alone." Climate change increases the risk of conflict in the poor, unstable, and desperate regions of the world. Public health systems collapse, families will be driven into refugee camps, and attempts to flee to safer countries often end in unmitigated disaster and tragedy, with permanent and all too often even fatal impacts on millions of peoples' lives.

So, given all this, why should we care about a changing climate? Because it affects us, our families, our communities, and people everywhere: real people, particularly the poor, the vulnerable, and those who already lack the resources to cope.

Links

• Climate change and health
• 'It Is Climate Change': India's Heat Wave Now The 5th Deadliest In World History
• Air Pollution and Climate Change
• 2016 US Climate and Health Assessment
• How Anxiety Around Climate Change Blocks Us From Taking Action