We Have Almost Certainly Blown The 1.5-Degree Global Warming Target

The Conversation - Andrew King | Benjamin J. Henley

The Great Barrier Reef is already feeling the effects of climate change. AAP/Supplied

The United Nations climate change conference held last year in Paris had the aim of tackling future climate change. After the deadlocks and weak measures that arose at previous meetings, such as Copenhagen in 2009, the Paris summit was different. The resulting Paris Agreement committed to:

Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

The agreement was widely met with cautious optimism. Certainly, some of the media were pleased with the outcome while acknowledging the deal's limitations.
Many climate scientists were pleased to see a more ambitious target being pursued, but what many people fail to realise is that actually staying within a 1.5℃ global warming limit is nigh on impossible.
There seems to be a strong disconnect between what the public and climate scientists think is achievable. The problem is not helped by the media's apparent reluctance to treat it as a true crisis.

The 1.5℃ limit is nearly impossible
In 2015, we saw global average temperatures a little over 1℃ above pre-industrial levels, and 2016 will very likely be even hotter. In February and March of this year, temperatures were 1.38℃ above pre-industrial averages.
Admittedly, these are individual months and years with a strong El Niño influence (which makes global temperatures more likely to be warmer), but the point is we're already well on track to reach 1.5℃ pretty soon.
So when will we actually reach 1.5℃ of global warming?

Animated timeline showing best current estimates of when global average temperatures will rise beyond 1.5℃ and 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. Boxes represent 90% confidence intervals; whiskers show the full range. Andrew King, Author provided

On our current emissions trajectory we will likely reach 1.5℃ within the next couple of decades (2024 is our best estimate). The less ambitious 2℃ target would be surpassed not much later.
This means we probably have only about a decade before we break through the ambitious 1.5℃ global warming target agreed to by the world's nations in Paris.
A University of Melbourne research group recently published these spiral graphs showing just how close we are getting to 1.5℃ warming. Realistically, we have very little time left to limit warming to 2℃, let alone 1.5℃.
This is especially true when you bear in mind that even if we stopped all greenhouse gas emissions right now, we would likely experience about another half-degree of warming as the oceans "catch up" with the atmosphere.

Parallels with climate change scepticism
The public seriously underestimates the level of consensus among climate scientists that human activities have caused the majority of global warming in recent history. Similarly, there appears to be a lack of public awareness about just how urgent the problem is.
Many people think we have plenty of time to act on climate change and that we can avoid the worst impacts by slowly and steadily reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next few decades.
This is simply not the case. Rapid and drastic cuts to emissions are needed as soon as possible.
In conjunction, we must also urgently find ways to remove greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. At present, this is not yet viable on a large scale.

Heatwaves in Europe in 2003 killed tens of thousands of people. EPA PHOTO/BELGA/JACQUES COLLET

Is 1.5℃ even enough to avoid "dangerous" climate change?
The 1.5℃ and 2℃ targets are designed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. It's certainly true that the more we warm the planet, the worse the impacts are likely to be. However, we are already experiencing dangerous consequences of climate change, with clear impacts on society and the environment.
For example, a recent study found that many of the excess deaths reported during the summer 2003 heatwave in Europe could be attributed to human-induced climate change.
Also, research has shown that the warm seas associated with the bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in March 2016 would have been almost impossible without climate change.
Climate change is already increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, from heatwaves in Australia to heavy rainfall in Britain.
These events are just a taste of the effects of climate change. Worse is almost certainly set to come as we continue to warm the planet.
It's highly unlikely we will achieve the targets set out in the Paris Agreement, but that doesn't mean governments should give up. It is vital that we do as much as we can to limit global warming.
The more we do now, the less severe the impacts will be, regardless of targets. The simple take-home message is that immediate, drastic climate action will mean far fewer deaths and less environmental damage in the future.

Links

• Turning up the heat: how the diplomatic push for 1.5℃ unfolded in Paris
• How 1.5 became the most important number at the Paris climate talks
• A matter of degrees: why 2C warming is officially unsafe
• This is what will happen to the climate in the next 100 years

'Calm Waters' Likely To Elude Embattled CSIRO Chief Larry Marshall

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Larry Marshall, the embattled chief executive of the CSIRO, is clearly hoping for anger within his agency over his handling of the hundreds of job cuts will subside.
In the past few weeks, he has visited sites from Canberra to Hobart, hobnobbing at morning and afternoon teas with small groups of staff, apparently avoiding the large Q&A sessions that sparked staff booing, a complaint of bullying and at least one walkout earlier this year.

CSIRO chief executive Larry Marshall can expect fierce grillings from senators if he retains his job. Photo: Andrew Meares

"Thanks to everyone in Team CSIRO who has worked tirelessly across the organisation to navigate us through this storm, to calmer waters ahead," Dr Marshall said in an email on Monday.
The prompt for the email, though, is one reason those calmer times may remain out of reach of the former Silicon Valley venture capitalist charged with running Australia's premier research agency, which marks its centenary in 2016.
The email was to welcome the move by Greg Hunt, the new Science Minister, to intervene in the agency's affairs, directing it to restore 15 climate research positions that Dr Marshall had deemed surplus to "Team CSIRO's" needs.
Removing Mr Hunt's spin on the $37 million funding during 10 years revealed Dr Marshall was given no extra cash to top up its $730 million-plus annual funding from the budget for the move. Instead, the CEO has to find the money from within.
Mr Hunt's rapid action marks a complete reversal of the mantra of his predecessor, Chris Pyne, that CSIRO was "an independent statutory agency governed by a board of directors", largely left to its own devices.
"I would think Larry Marshall could have had a stiff drink when he discovered Hunt was appointed science minister," says Andy Pitman, director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science based at the University of NSW.

CSIRO cuts: Scientist questions future in Australia
Climate expert Dr Annette Hirsch is currently working in Switzerland and says the recent cuts to the CSIRO will make a 'huge influence' on her decision to come back to Australia. 

As Environment Minister Mr Hunt had already been active, working with Chief Scientist Alan Finkel and others to salvage a climate science centre that would preserve at least 40 of the 140 climate researchers. CSIRO managers had been exploring how to cut, transfer or outsource almost all of them.
Mr Hunt has offered his "strong support" for Dr Marshall in his role, and a senior government source denies patience with the chief has run out.

Not out?: Larry Marshall at the SCG, trying to rouse CSIRO leaders in September 2015. 

Still, that official says "it's going to be interesting" to see how Dr Marshall will cope with having to adjust his previous downgrading of climate research and handle a more hands-on minister who is himself "intent on repurposing the agency".
Another signal test will come when the CSIRO board decides whether to extend Dr Marshall's tenure beyond the end of 2016. The board had been tipped to accept the endorsement by the Turnbull government – made barely a week before the election was called – at its June meeting.
"Not yet" was reportedly Dr Marshall's answer to staff in Canberra asking about his contract extension last week. Fairfax Media sought confirmation from CSIRO.
Whether Dr Marshall can cast off the disarray of the past six months, which included multiple grillings by a Senate and incessant leaks to the media by disgruntled staff, remains an open question.
Response to his plans revealed by Fairfax Media in February to slice 350 jobs so soon after the Paris climate summit in late 2015 included international alarm and a petition signed by thousands.
In the end, just 20 climate positions are now slated to go. The other divisions hit– Land and Water, Data61 and manufacturing – were less successful in mounting a public case, and they will carry the bulk of about 275 job losses all up.
Ken Lee, one of the architects of the climate cuts, has opted to exit too. The head of the Oceans and Atmosphere unit and an expert in oil leaks, will depart for his native Canada in early 2017, according to an email sent to staff on Thursday.
Longer term, the loss of top scientists and capability will make it harder to lure and retain the next generation of talent, says John Church, a world-renowned sea-levels expert who will leave on August 19 after his position was made redundant.
Those going include researchers such Saul Cunningham, an award-winning ecologist, or Fiona Walsh, whose work on Indigenous communities will disappear with the closing of the Alice Spring research centre.
Dr Church declines to join the Greens in demanding Dr Marshall join those departing but wonders if an exit might not be too far off.
"If he's come this far and still not had his contract extended, why does he want to stay?," Church says.

Links

• Hunt: CSIRO to predict climate changes 10 years into future
• Scientists rue loss of technical edge at CSIRO
• The scientist at sea
• Hunt orders CSIRO climate science U-turn

Gulf Storm August 2016

Climate Signals

A slow-moving storm system, fed by unusually warm seas in the Gulf of Mexico, began on August 7 to unleash heavy rains in the Southeastern United States.
From Tuesday, August 9 through Sunday, August 14 the storm inundated Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas, killing three people.
Five cities in Louisiana have reported rainfall totals of over two feet.
On August 11, a measure of atmospheric moisture, precipitable water, was in historic territory at 2.78 inches, a measurement higher than during some past hurricanes in the region.
Increased moisture in the air and unusually heavy rainfall are classic signals of climate change.
As the world warms, storms are able to feed on warmer ocean waters, and the air is able to hold and dump more water.
These trends have led to a pronounced increase in intense rainfall events and an increase in flooding risk.
In the Southeastern US, extreme precipitation has increased 27 percent from 1958 to 2012.

Southeastern US sees extreme rainfall, a classic signal of climate change

Beginning Sunday, August 7, a slow moving storm system headed northward from the superheated Gulf of Mexico and unleashed heavy rains on the Southeastern US, first targeting Florida's panhandle and northwestern coast.
Perry, Florida, saw 4.5 inches of rain in just two hours on August 8, and Hatch Bend, Florida, reported up to 12.4 inches of rain from Sunday until 9am on Monday.[1]
From Tuesday, August 9 through Sunday, August 14, the slow-moving storm inundated Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas, killing at least three people.[2]
Five cities in Louisiana have reported over two feet of rain, with Watson, Louisiana, topping the list at 31.39 inches.[3]
The town of Lafayette, in the heart of the wettest part of the storm, reported 10.39 inches of rain on Friday, setting the town's record of wettest day until Saturday topped that at 10.40 inches.[4]
Record flooding has been observed on at nine river gauges in Louisiana.[12]
One of the clearest changes in weather globally and across the United States is the increasing frequency of heavy rain.[5]
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. And like a bigger bucket, a warmer atmosphere dumps more water when it rains.
The storm in the Southeastern US was supercharged by running over a warmer ocean and through an atmosphere made wetter by global warming.
Climate change is now responsible for 17 percent of moderate extreme rainfall events, i.e. one-in-a-thousand day events.[6]
The more extreme the event, the more likely climate change was responsible,  as climate change affects the frequency of the extreme events the most. In the instance of a one-in-a-thousand year event, the odds that climate change was responsible is dramatically higher.[6]

High sea surface temperatures feed moisture and energy into storms

The storm system was fed by moist winds coming off the Gulf coast where sea surface temperatures are running hot, bumped up by global warming.
On August 7, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf hovered near 90°F (32°C) at temperatures 3.6°F-5.4°F (2-3°C) above average.[7][8]
Along the central Gulf Coast, a measure of atmospheric moisture (from the surface up to the jet stream level) known as precipitable water is in the top percentile of historical values (3 to 3.5 standard deviations above normal).[9]
In New Orleans, the precipitable water was determined to be 2.78 inches Wednesday, which ranks among the top-five highest levels on record in August.[10]
As the world warms, storms are able to feed on warmer ocean waters, and the air is able to hold and dump more water.

Extreme rains and floods are consistent with climate change trends

Over the past century the US has witnessed a 20 percent increase in the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest downpours, which has dramatically increased the risk of flooding.[5]
Since the 1980s, a larger percentage of precipitation has come in the form of intense single-day events, and nine of the top 10 years for extreme one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1990.[11]
In the Southeastern US, extreme precipitation has increased 27 percent from 1958 to 2012.[5]

Discover how Climate Signals are related
This tree of climate signals illustrates factors that link this event to climate change.

This tree of climate signals is schematic only. It illustrates factors that link individual events to climate change. The diagram does not quantify the relative strength of each factor, nor does it illustrate the natural factors that often shape extreme events, including natural variability and regular circulation changes. For more information, read more about this event.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse gases from human activities—mainly the burning of fossil fuels like coal and gas—are likely responsible for all the observed warming since 1950. The fundamental physics of heat trapping greenhouse gases has been understood since the nineteenth century. Scientists have understood since the late 1970s that humans—by increasing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases from 280 parts per million in preindustrial times to what is now over 400 ppm—have effectively wrapped the Earth in a thicker blanket, trapping more of the Earth’s infrared energy close to the surface.

Global Warming
From 1880 to 2012, the Earth warmed by 1.5°F (0.85°C) reversing a long term cooling trend. The physics behind the Earth’s temperature imbalance is simple. Scientists first realized that gases in the atmosphere cause a greenhouse effect in the 19th century and have known since the late 1970s that humans are now driving this effect, trapping more of the Earth’s infrared energy close to the surface through fossil fuel emissions. The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased from 280 parts per million in preindustrial times to what is now over 400 ppm.

Increased Sea Surface Temperature
The amount of heat absorbed by the oceans has surged in the past few decades, contributing to more intense storms, sea level rise, sea ice melt, storm surge flooding and widespread ecosystem change.

Increased Atmospheric Moisture
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per 1°C of warming—and scientists have already observed a four percent increase in atmospheric moisture due to the air’s ability to hold more moisture as it warms. Storms supplied by climate change with increasing moisture are widely observed to produce heavier rain and snow. Increased atmospheric moisture content may also affect the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is a major driver of interannual climate variability, by intensifying regional precipitation variability, and associated extreme precipitation and drought events. Research indicates that the increase in atmospheric moisture is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases.

Increased Extreme Precipitation
Global warming leads to an increase in both ocean evaporation into the atmosphere and the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold. High levels of water vapor in the atmosphere in turn create conditions more favorable for heavy precipitation in the form of intense rain and snow storms.

Increased Flooding Risk
Heavy precipitation is contributing to increased flooding around the world. Flooding is worsened by regional climate trends such as increases in heavy rain and snow, early snowmelt, and increased seasonal precipitation. Flooding is also affected by non-climatic factors such as land development, deforestation, levee placement and local topography, making it challenging to determine an overarching climate signal in flood trends.

Gulf Storm August 2016
A slow-moving storm system, fed by unusually warm seas in the Gulf of Mexico, began on August 7 to unleash heavy rains in the Southeastern United States. From Tuesday, August 9 through Sunday, August 14 the storm inundated Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas, killing three people. Five cities in Louisiana have reported rainfall totals of over two feet. On August 11, a measure of atmospheric moisture, precipitable water, was in historic territory at 2.78 inches, a measurement higher than during some past hurricanes in the region. Increased moisture in the air and unusually heavy rainfall are classic signals of climate change. As the world warms, storms are able to feed on warmer ocean waters, and the air is able to hold and dump more water. These trends have led to a pronounced increase in intense rainfall events and an increase in flooding risk. In the Southeastern US, extreme precipitation has increased 27 percent from 1958 to 2012.

Links

• China Floods June - July 2016
• Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes
• Increased Extreme Precipitation
• Increased Extreme Heat and Heat Waves
• Australia Bushfire Season 2015 - 2016
• Australia’s Other Great Reef Is Also Screwed