Lethal Heating: 09/17/16

17/09/2016

A 3-Million-Year Ice Age Is Coming To An End

BBC - Melissa Hogenboom

A dramatic animation shows how much of the Arctic sea ice has melted away in the last 35 years. The ice loss poses a terminal threat to polar bears

The Arctic sea ice, which polar bears depend on for survival, is shrinking.
A new study finds that ice is melting even earlier in spring than thought, and growing back later in autumn.
If this trend continues, polar bears will face longer periods without ice.
Watch how much their world has changed in 35 years:

Links

Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks To Second Lowest Level Ever Recorded

The Guardian - Associated Press

‘Tremendous loss’ of ice reinforces clear downward trend towards ice-free summers due to effects of climate change

Arctic sea ice this summer shrank to its second lowest level since scientists started to monitor it by satellite. Photograph: AP

Arctic sea ice this summer shrank to its second lowest level since scientists started to monitor it by satellite, with scientists saying it is another ominous signal of global warming.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado said the sea ice reached its summer low point on Saturday, extending 4.14m sq km (1.6m sq miles). That’s behind only the mark set in 2012, 3.39m sq km.
Center director Mark Serreze said this year’s level technically was 10,000 sq km less than 2007, but that’s so close the two years are essentially tied.
Even though this year didn’t set a record, “we have reinforced the overall downward trend. There is no evidence of recovery here,” Serreze said. “We’ve always known that the Arctic is going to be the early warning system for climate change. What we’ve seen this year is reinforcing that.”
This year’s minimum level is nearly 2.56m sq km smaller than the 1979 to 2000 average. That’s the size of Alaska and Texas combined.
“It’s a tremendous loss that we’re looking at here,” Serreze said.
It was an unusual year for sea ice in the Arctic, Serreze said. In the winter, levels were among their lowest ever for the cold season, but then there were more storms than usual over the Arctic during the summer. Those storms normally keep the Arctic cloudy and cooler, but that didn’t keep the sea ice from melting this year, he said.
“Summer weather patterns don’t matter as much as they used to, so we’re kind of entering a new regime,” Serreze said.
Serreze said he wouldn’t be surprised if the Arctic was essentially ice free in the summer by 2030, something that will affect international security.
“The trend is clear and ominous,” National Center for Atmospheric Research senior scientist Kevin Trenberth said in an email. “This is indeed why the polar bear is a poster child for human-induced climate change, but the effects are not just in the Arctic.”
One recent theory divides climate scientists: Melting sea ice in the Arctic may change the jet stream and weather further south, especially in winter.
“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic,” Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said. “It looks increasingly likely that the dramatic decrease in Arctic sea ice is impacting weather in mid-latitudes and may be at least partly responsible for the more dramatic, persistent and damaging weather anomalies we’ve seen so many of in recent years.”

Arctic sea ice extent. The red line is sea ice extent in 2016. Photograph: NSIDC

Links

Extraordinary Global Heat Continues

World Meteorological Organization

The exceptionally long spell of record global heat, a surge in greenhouse gas concentrations, shocking coral reef bleaching and long-term Arctic sea ice melt all add urgency to the need for world leaders to ratify and implement the Paris Agreement on climate change, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has convened a special high-level event on 21 September to speed up ratification or accession to the Paris Agreement, reached in December 2015.
“We have witnessed a prolonged period of extraordinary heat, which is set to become the new norm,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “We have observed both unusually high concentrations of carbon dioxide and the record breaking temperatures. The high temperatures of the sea water has aggravated severe coral reef bleaching.”
“All these findings increase the urgency of action in the implementation of the Paris Agreement to avoid temperatures exceeding the 1.5-2.0°C range above the pre-industrial era,” said Mr Taalas.

Arctic Sea Ice
The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre said Thursday that the Arctic’s ice cover appears to have reached its minimum extent on September 10, 2016, at 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles). It was statistically tied at second lowest in the satellite record with the 2007 minimum. The figures are provisional.
The record lowest extent in the 37-year satellite record occurred on September 17, 2012 when sea ice extent fell to 3.39 million square kilometers (1.31 million square miles).
It was a stormy, cloudy, and fairly cool summer. Historically, such weather conditions slow down the summer ice loss.
“It really suggests that in the next few years, with more typical warmer conditions, we will see some very dramatic further losses,” said Ted Scambos, NSIDC lead scientist.

Arctic sea ice cover grows each autumn and winter, and shrinks each spring and summer. The maximum Arctic sea ice extent in March 2016 was the lowest on record. The Greenland ice sheet also began its melt unusually early this year.
The extent of Arctic sea ice at the peak of the summer melt season now typically covers 40 percent less area than it did in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Heat in August and September
Data from NASA and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting confirmed that August 2016 set yet another monthly record.
Although the seasonal temperature cycle typically peaks in July, August 2016 wound up tied with July 2016 for the warmest month ever recorded. August 2016’s temperature was 0.16 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous warmest August (2014). The month also was 0.98 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean August temperature from 1951-1980, according to NASA.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is due to issue its August global temperature figures on 20 September. WMO uses a combination of international datasets to compile its annual statements on the Status of the Global Climate.
“Prospects of a cooling La Niña episode later this year are uncertain,” said Mr Taalas. “It is looking likely that 2016 will the hottest year on record, surpassing the incredible temperatures witnessed in 2015,” he said.

Many parts of Europe experienced exceptionally high temperatures in the first half of September. In the United Kingdom, for instance, Gravesend in Kent reached 34.4°C on 13 September – the hottest September day since 1911. Denmark saw temperatures of up to 29.9°C. France saw temperatures on 12 September which were 8 to 12 ° C above average for this time of year.

Carbon dioxide concentrations
Carbon dioxide concentrations have passed the symbolic milestone of 400 parts per million in the atmosphere so far this year. Levels vary according to the season but the underlying trend is upwards. According to NOAA, the global monthly mean CO2 in July 2016 was 401.72 parts per million, up from 393.13 parts per million in July 2015.

The ocean in a warmer world
The ocean is protecting us from the worst impacts of global warming by not only storing more than 90 per cent of the extra heat from greenhouse gases but also by taking up about a third of the total man-made emissions of carbon dioxide.
New research into the complex interactions between the ocean and the global climate – as evidenced by the recent super El Niño - will be examined at an international scientific gathering in China. The conference will also focus on how the ocean is bearing the brunt of global warming, with huge consequences for the future of the planet.
The Open Science Conference takes place in Qingdao, China, from 18 – 25 September and will bring together more than 600 scientists. It is organized by the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Core Project on Climate and Ocean – CLIVAR. WMO co-sponsors the World Climate Research Programme.

Links

Folks, it is time to be alarmed about climate change

News & Observer - Russell Philbrick*

If our children's children are going to be able to live meaningful lives upon this planet, we must all study and become alarmed about the changes that we have caused in the atmosphere, the ocean and the earth itself during the past 100 years.
Scientists of the world have been nearly unanimous in proclaiming that mankind is responsible for the major changes occurring in our environment. The scary thing is that no one can define the tipping point, when it will be too late for us to take actions that can prevent a level of catastrophe that we cannot change.
There is a tipping point, where a runaway greenhouse effect would completely cloud our sky while slowly scorching every living thing as the temperature rises. Sea levels will rise to flood more than half of the present living space of the world's population.
We have a sister planet, Venus, where a runaway greenhouse effect occurred. Venus exhibits thick clouds from evaporated oceans and all of the planet's volatile materials, which surround the planet with thick clouds that result in a typical surface temperature more than 800F.
Scientists are supposed to be more factual and less speculative in the things they say. However, there is a time when everyone has a responsibility to raise an alarm. This becomes particularly necessary when the majority of those we elect to write laws and regulations tend to be deniers of facts, ignorant of scientific results and dismissive of even debating and evaluating the potential consequences.
We are facing an election that is extremely important, if we are to begin the process of developing long-term solutions, by electing those who are willing to learn, discuss and develop plans to protect our future on planet Earth. It is a responsibility of every one of us to evaluate the stance on environmental issues of every candidate before we cast our ballots for president, senators, legislators, governor, as well as state and regional offices. We cannot afford to put off, for another four years, the process of beginning to develop plans for our future.
It is most likely that we cannot proceed along the current pathway for very much longer and hope to survive as the human species. We must be willing to accept significant changes in how we use resources for energy from fossil fuels for power generation and transportation and chemicals for increasing food harvests. We must be mindful of pollution of waterways and oceans, harvesting of trees and marine life and other practices that reduce species habitats in oceans and forests.
We do have some reason for hope that mankind can come together to make national and international choices for a common good, even if it has been done only on a much smaller scale in the past.
One particular example began in the 1970s, when scientists examined the potential for chlorofluorocarbons to chemically destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, which protects the troposphere and the surface from receiving the damaging high-energy solar ultraviolet radiation. At that time, CFCs in spray propellants for cosmetics, such as hairsprays, and air-conditioning refrigerants were being released into the atmosphere in sufficient quantity to cause scientists to sound the alarm.
During the 1980s, most all of the governments of the world came together on banning CFCs as spray propellant and regulating the use in refrigerants. During recent years, satellite and ground-based measurements have shown that the ozone decline has been reversed and is gradually returning to normal. The damage has probably been limited to small increases in frequencies of eye cataracts and skin cancers.
So, discussions and logical conclusions can result in agreements to do the right thing, but nothing can happen when politicians are at loggerheads. As a responsible citizen and a concerned member of society, please study this problem of climate change, consider the positions of the candidates on the environment and then vote for the good of future generations.

*Russell Philbrick is a professor of physics at N.C. State University.

Links

Turning Up The Heat To Push Many Australian Plants To The Brink, New Study Finds

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Australia's inland plants are among those most likely to be affected by rising temperatures, challenging the concept the country's weather extremes would make them less susceptible to global warming, a new study has found.
The research, published in the Global Change Biology journal, studied the upper-canopy leaves of 218 plant species across 19 sites around the world.

Trees start to lose leaf function and can die if exposed to prolonged excessive heat. Photo: Nick Moir

Ten of the sites were in Australia, reflecting the nation's remarkable array of biomes, said Owen Atkin of the ARC Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology at the Australian National University, who led the study.
The potential for damage from warming temperatures was found to be most severe in hot inland areas in mid-latitude regions. In Australia, these areas include study sites near Kalgoorlie in WA, Alice Springs in the Red Centre and Renmark in SA.

Studies have tended to focus more on the impacts of rising temperatures on fauna rather than plants. Photo: Nick Moir

"We've been getting some amazing extremes," Professor Atkin said. Leaf temperatures can be 5-10 degrees above the air temperatures, putting them in the mid-50s in some places in January.
Upper canopy leaves tend to die when thresholds are breached, reducing the ability of the plants to grow.
"If those events happen often enough, then the tree may well die," he said. "Their tolerance is not high enough to cope with these new extremes."
The findings are important because previous studies of warming have tended to focus on how animals will respond. Since the inland regions where the heatwave extremes are becoming the worst are on the edges of important wheat and other agriculture zones, the results also underscore the need to develop more heat-tolerant varieties, Professor Atkin said.

Heatwaves in Australia: Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick explains the ins and outs of this sweltering weather phenomenon. Produced in association with UNSWTV.

Andy Leigh, an ecologist at the University of Technology Sydney, such the study was important because it spanned a range of global conditions.
While Australia was known to have plants able to cope with a variable climate "there's a limit to how far we can push acclimation", she said.
Some plants would be able to adjust better than others to higher temperatures but the result of surviving would be less reproduction or other activity.
"Anything that costs plants effort is gong to come at the cost of productivity," Associate Professor Leigh said.
A separate report out on Tuesday by Nature Climate Change found that a 1 degree increase in global temperature would reduce global wheat yields by between 4.1 and 6.4 per cent.

Links