20/09/2016

Welcome To Masdar City: The Ultimate Experiment In Sustainable Urban Living

The Conversation - 

RIM Creation/Flickr, CC BY-SA
Ten years ago in the United Arab Emirates, a new settlement was started from scratch, with the aim of becoming "the world's most sustainable city". Masdar City was designed to be zero-carbon and zero-waste, home to a population of 40,000 people, with an additional 50,000 commuters, in an area of six square kilometres. Today, it's playing a crucial role in the development of sustainable design and technology.
Around the world, access to a reliable and plentiful energy supply is becoming increasingly critical. Urban populations continue to grow and demand even more energy. At the same time, vital resources such as water are becoming increasingly scarce, and rising levels of CO₂ and a warming global climate are adding to the stress on the Earth's system.
All of this means that Masdar's function as a test bed for innovations in fuel efficiency and renewable energy is more important than ever before. As part of a recent study, my colleagues and I took a closer look at the new technology on show in Masdar. Here's what we found.

Going for green
The streets and buildings of Masdar City are specially designed to be energy efficient. In line with traditional Arab design, Masdar City's shaded paths and narrow streets are designed to create a pleasant space for walking in the region's hot climate. Its buildings are only five stories high, lining narrow streets with rooftops covered with solar panels, while street-level "solar canopies" provide shade for pedestrians.
The entire city is oriented north-east to south-west, to benefit from cool winds at night and to minimise the incoming heat during the day. The main buildings – the Siemens Building, the IRENA Building and the Incubator Building – are highly insulated and energy efficient, with three quarters of their hot water produced using solar energy. They also have angled facades to minimise the amount of glare and heat from the sun.
Inclined to save energy. claudionapoli/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND
For transport, the city currently uses 13 "personal rapid transit" (PRT) carts, or driverless pods. These ferry commuters from a car park at the city's outer edge to the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, which uses Masdar as a "living laboratory" to conduct research on sustainable urban development.
There are also a number of electric vehicles available for public use, which run on a 16kWh lithium-ion battery with a maximum speed of 130km per hour. These can be recharged at charging stations throughout the city. Electric buses also provide access for residential areas.

Sustainable technology
Masdar City is home to some of the most advanced solar energy technology in the world. Perhaps the most ambitious project is SHAMS 1, a stand-alone 2.5km², 100MW Concentrated Solar Power plant. This plant was built about 100km from Masdar, at an estimated cost of US$600m (£453m). It is one of the largest of its type in the world, and displaces 175,000 tonnes of CO₂ annually – equivalent to the emissions of 29,000 UK homes.
The SHAMS 1 plant generates electricity from the sun's heat. But Masdar City is also supplied by another 0.2km², 10MW solar plant, which uses photovoltaic technology to turn the sun's light into energy. What's more, there's a 1MW photovoltaic panel on the roof of the Masdar Institute, while the solar panels atop the Masdar headquarters generate 340,000kWh per year – enough to power 94 average UK homes.
Feeling the heat. Masdar Official/Flickr, CC BY-NC-SA
Other initiatives include a solar cooling project to lower the temperature inside buildings, and a geo-thermal cooling project, which involved digging two wells reaching 2.5km deep, one for drawing hot water, and one for re-injecting the water after the heat has been extracted.
A 45m-high wind tower in Masdar City takes inspiration from traditional Arab technology. It produces a cooling effect, by directing hot air up and out of its surrounding area, as well as bringing cooler air from above down to the surface. Also, a 100kW thermal power plant is being established, which will convert solar energy into thermal energy through a set of reflective mirrors.
Power usage in Masdar City is monitored through one management system, and portrayed through a series of screens inside the buildings. There are no light switches or taps in the city – all of these features are controlled by motion sensors, to prevent waste.

Inspiring cities
Despite Masdar's many successes, there is still room for improvement. It needs to establish more permanent residents who can contribute to its growth and development. What's more, further work is required on transportation, as technology in electric cars has advanced rapidly, and has in some ways superseded the pods.
Behind the times? claudionapoli/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND
And while Masdar City has enabled the development of state-of-the-art, energy-saving buildings and exciting new technologies in a hostile, arid environment, not all of the solutions on show would work for other cities. For one thing, it's costly: the Abu Dhabi government has committed US$15 billion (£11.3 billion) to the project. What's more, while Masdar City started with an empty site, established cities have to work around existing infrastructure.
Even so, as the global climate changes, warmer summers are expected to become more likely, so any case studies which show how buildings can be modified to mitigate the heat will be useful. In this way, and many more, Masdar City will continue to provide other cities around the world with inspiration to help them become more robust, resilient and sustainable in the face of global challenges.

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Antarctic Model Raises Prospect Of Unstoppable Ice Collapse

Nature - Jeff Tollefson

Sea levels could rise by more than 15 metres by 2500 if greenhouse-gas emissions continue to grow.
Recent studies suggest that the Antarctic ice sheet is much less stable than scientists once thought. Paul Nicklen/National Geographic Creative
Choices that the world makes this century could determine the fate of the massive Antarctic ice sheet. A study published online this week in Nature1 finds that continued growth in greenhouse-gas emissions over the next several decades could trigger an unstoppable collapse of Antarctica's ice — raising sea levels by more than a metre by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500.
Adam Levy explores why modelling
Antarctica's ice sheets is so difficult
"That is literally remapping how the planet looks from space," says study co-author Rob DeConto, a geoscientist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. The good news, he says, is that it projects little or no sea-level rise from Antarctic melt if greenhouse-gas emissions are reduced quickly enough to limit the average global temperature rise to about 2 °C.
The findings add to a growing body of research that suggests that Antarctic ice is less stable than once thought. In its 2013 report2, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that Antarctic melting would contribute just a few centimetres to sea-level rise by 2100. But as scientists develop a better understanding of how the ocean and atmosphere affect the ice sheet, their projections of the continent's future are growing more dire.
DeConto and co-author David Pollard, a palaeoclimatologist at Pennsylvania State University in University Park, developed a climate model that accounts for ice loss caused by warming ocean currents — which can eat at the underside of the ice sheet — and for rising atmospheric temperatures that melt it from above. Ponds of meltwater that form on the ice surface often drain through cracks; this can set off a chain reaction that breaks up ice shelves and causes newly exposed ice cliffs to collapse under their own weight.
They found that by including all of these processes, they could better simulate key geological periods that have long puzzled scientists. Before the last ice age began 130,000–115,000 years ago, for instance, sea levels were 6–9 metres higher than today — yet atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels were about 30% lower. And 3 million years ago, when CO2 levels roughly equalled today's, the oceans may have been 10–30 metres higher.
Incorporating the physics of ice melt driven by atmospheric warming, along with cliff collapse, helped DeConto and Pollard to reproduce these key periods with their model. "That was sort of an epiphany that maybe we were on to something," DeConto says. Ultimately, he and Pollard tested how well different versions of their model simulated the past, and then used the ones that performed best to project future sea-level rise. They found that over time, atmospheric warming would become the main driver of ice loss.
"I think their processes are still a bit speculative, but it's good work," says Nick Golledge, an ice-sheet modeller at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. His research, published in Nature in October3, suggests that Antarctic ice melt driven by rising greenhouse-gas emissions could boost global sea levels by up to 39 centimetres by 2100, and by as much as 3 metres by 2300.
Still, Golledge cautions, scientists know little about how the atmosphere and ocean affected ancient glaciers. "We don't really have a great handle on what the climate was like in the past," he says.
"That was sort of an epiphany that maybe we were on to something."
A third Nature study, published in December4, suggested that Antarctic melting was unlikely to produce more than 30 centimetres of sea-level rise by 2100. But its authors noted that newly identified processes such as surface melting and the collapse of ice cliffs could increase ice loss. As such, DeConto and Pollard's projections "are consistent with our recent study", says co-author Tamsin Edwards, a physicist at the Open University in Milton Keynes, UK.
Glaciologists are already aware of the destructive power of the atmospheric-warming and cliff-collapse mechanisms that DeConto and Pollard's model simulates. A string of unusually warm summers caused the sudden collapse of Antarctica's Larsen B ice shelf in 2002. And scientists have witnessed the basic physics of ice-cliff collapse during calving events on the Jakobshavn and Helheim glaciers in Greenland.
"On the observational side, I see the things they are talking about," says David Holland, a physical-climate scientist at New York University. "There's a lot of observation and modelling to go, but they are adjusting people's thinking in a very scientific way."
For DeConto, the new model results underscore the choice that humanity is facing. If he and Pollard have the physics correct, this process of ice-shelf disintegration, followed by ice-cliff collapse, will be nearly impossible to stop once it gets under way.
"Once the ocean warms up, that ice will not be able to recover until the oceans cool back down," he says — a process that could take thousands of years. "It's a really long-term commitment."

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Tree Of Life Faces Deep Cuts From Climate Change

University of CaliforniaAndy Murdock

Predicted shift in distribution of 657 species of Australian eucalypts from 2014 to 2085. Arrows represent the magnitude and direction of change. Plots on the right show the general direction of change for species that have shrinking distributions, expanding distributions or are extinct by the last time point. Credit: González-Orozco et al. 2016
Loss of habitat. Migration. Extinction. Over the coming decades, thousands of species are predicted to be severely affected by climate change. New research shows that climate change won’t prune the tree of life evenly — it may make especially deep cuts on certain branches that we can’t afford to lose.
Predicting where and how species will lose ground is essential for conservation efforts. In plants, extensive range losses are expected for individual species, most notably for endemic species that only occur in specific areas around the world. Relatively little is known, however, about how climate change could impact whole groups of related species and biodiversity on a larger scale.
In a study published this week in Nature Climate Change, a team including UC Berkeley researchers Brent Mishler and Andrew Thornhill, led by Carlos Gonzalez-Orozco from University of Canberra, used a new big data analytic method to model the effects of climate change on eucalypts, Australia’s most dominant and widespread trees, taking into account detailed ranges for each species and their evolutionary relationships based on thousands of DNA sequences.

Continental-scale effects of climate change
Eucalypts, a large group of plants in the myrtle family including Eucalyptus and closely related genera, are found in nearly every part of Australia. There are upward of 800 species across the continent, more than 700 of which were captured in the analysis. The group chose to focus on eucalypts because of its extreme diversity of forms and preferred habitats, and the mix of both young and old lineages in the group.
“There isn’t a perfect comparison for eucalypts in North America,” said Thornhill. “Think oaks, but much more diverse and dominant. If you took the eucalypts out of Australia, you’d basically have no trees in most of the country.”
The study projects that within the next 60 years, the ranges of the vast majority of species (91 percent) across Australia will shrink in size by roughly half on average, and suitable habitat will tend to shift south and to higher elevations. For 16 species in the study, suitable habitat will disappear altogether.
While there’s no shortage of dark cloud predictions for climate change, this one comes with a silver lining: the method used in the study is a powerful new tool for identifying areas of immediate conservation concern, along with areas that will become important refuges as conditions change.

Why evolution matters to conservation
For conservation efforts, saving as many species as possible from extinction is the overarching goal, but the reality is that land managers always have to prioritize. With limited resources, it becomes a matter of triage.
“There comes a point when we have to make decisions on which taxa need conservation, and some things are just more valuable than others. Think of a one-of-a-kind family heirloom, say a beloved quilt made by your grandma. You can go out and buy a mass-produced blanket that warms you just as well, but grandma’s is special — it’s unique,” explained Mishler, director of the University and Jepson Herbaria, senior fellow of the Berkeley Institute for Data Science, and professor in the Department of Integrative Biology.
On the tree of life there are also precious heirlooms.
“Genetic diversity is valuable, and long branches of the tree of life simply have more. They have the most unique traits genetically, morphologically, ecologically and in their chemistry,” said Mishler.
As an example, Mishler points to California’s iconic redwoods, an old, distinctive group of conifers found only in a narrow band along the coast of Northern California and Oregon, where summer fog persists — for now.
The strength of the new method used in this study is that instead of simply counting species, it can pinpoint areas that have unusually high levels of phylogenetic diversity (lots of long, old branches), as well as those that have unusually low levels (lots of young, short branches).
“Sometimes these areas are referred to as ‘museums’ and ‘nurseries,’” said Mishler. “The museums are areas where old, long branches of the tree of life have persisted over long periods of time. Nurseries are areas where we are seeing a lot of recent diversification taking place. Both are valuable in different ways.”
In the current study, the researchers found that the loss of suitable habitat will not be equally distributed over the eucalypt tree of life: it’s the rare, old lineages that will be the most severely affected. Across Australia, the study also predicts not just a loss of diversity in specific places, but a general trend toward homogenization: as unique endemic diversity is lost, everywhere becomes more alike.
Fruits of Eucalyptus kingsmillii lying in the sand of the Great Victorian Desert in Western Australia. Eucalypts currently occupy a wide range of distinct habitats across Australia — some of which are projected to disappear in the next 60 years due to climate change. Credit: Andrew Thornhill, UC Berkeley
New data, new methods
“Big data” can be a buzzword, but for this new method to work, not only do you truly need massive amounts of data, you need data of a sort that has only recently become available, as well as powerful tools to crunch the numbers.
For this study, the researchers needed accurate location data from millions of plant specimens across Australia, and an accurate phylogeny (i.e., evolutionary tree) based on DNA sequences from each of those plant taxa.
“Fully databased plant specimen records from herbaria have only been available for 10 years or less in most cases, and the ability to access these and download the data has only happened in the last five years,” said Thornhill.
Australia was the first country to put all plant specimen data online in a way that’s publicly accessible and searchable via Australia’s Virtual Herbarium.
“The U.S. is still playing catch-up,” said Mishler. “A lot of the new methods for how to analyze large amounts of specimen data has also come out of Australia. Because they were the first to have the data, they were also the first to develop the tools.”
The concept of phylogenetic diversity dates back to the early 1990s, but it was only theoretical at the time.
“There was no way to implement it until we had the big data sets we have today as well as the tools to deal with big spatial data and DNA sequence data,” said Thornhill.

From Australia to the world
In a related study published this month in the Journal of Biogeography, the research group zoomed out beyond the eucalypts in an analysis that incorporated 90 percent of Australia’s flowering plant genera and 3.4 million georeferenced plant specimens.
“Some of the same general patterns hold when you look at all plants across the continent, but individual lineages are different, special,” said Mishler. “You really have to look at both scales to get the full picture.”
In an ongoing NSF-funded study, the group is taking a similar approach to the California flora, incorporating taxa from every lineage of California plants, thanks to the over 2 million georeferenced plant collections in the Consortium of California Herbaria and a recent citizen science “rare plant treasure hunt” that helped Thornhill fill in gaps in existing DNA sequence data.
“Phylogenetic diversity adds an evolutionary dimension to biodiversity conservation — using species counts alone doesn’t capture the importance of specific lineages or the most critical habitat,” said Mishler.
Once the work on the California flora is complete, Mishler says the group plans a very practical product: a simple, prioritized list of areas in California that need protection as the effects of climate change become increasingly apparent across the state.

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An American Tragedy: Why Are Millions Of Trees Dying Across The Country?

The Guardian |

A quiet crisis playing out in US forests as huge numbers of trees succumb to drought, disease, insects and wildfire – much of it driven by climate change
Oak trees at dusk near in California. The state has seen more than 66 million trees killed in the Sierra Nevada alone since 2010. Photograph: David McNew/Getty Images 
JB Friday hacked at a rain-sodden tree with a small axe, splitting open a part of the trunk. The wood was riven with dark stripes, signs of a mysterious disease that has ravaged the US's only rainforests – and just one of the plagues that are devastating American forests across the west.
Friday, a forest ecologist at the University of Hawaii, started getting calls from concerned landowners in Puna, which is on the eastern tip of Hawaii's big island, in 2010. Their seemingly ubiquitous ohi'a trees were dying at an astonishing rate. The leaves would turn yellow, then brown, over just a few weeks – a startling change for an evergreen tree.
"It was like popcorn – pop, pop, pop, pop, one tree after another," Friday said. "At first people were shocked, now they are resigned.
"It's heartbreaking. This is the biggest threat to our native forests that any of us have seen. If this spreads across the whole island, it could collapse the whole native ecosystem."
Almost six years later and nearly 50,000 acres of native forest on the big island are infected with rapid ohi'a death disease. Rumors abound as to its origin: did it emerge from Hawaii's steaming volcanoes? A strange new insect? Scientists still aren't sure of where it came from or how to treat it.
Lisa Keith, researcher in plant pathology at the US Department of Agriculture, said that when she analyzed the disease "right away Dutch elm disease popped into my head". But this was unlike anything she, or anyone else, had ever dealt with.
"I'm not sure if there's been anything else like this in the world," she said. "The potential is there for major devastation." Keith said the disease hadn't yet spread to crops, like coffee, but it threatens a whole family of metrosideros trees and shrubs found mainly in the Pacific.
But the plight of the ohi'a is not unique - it's part of a quiet crisis playing out in forests across America. Drought, disease, insects and wildfire are chewing up tens of millions of trees at an incredible pace, much of it driven by climate change.

'Mountainsides dying'
Forestry officials and scientists are increasingly alarmed, and say the essential role of trees – providing clean water, locking up carbon and sheltering whole ecosystems – is being undermined on a grand scale.
California and mountain states have suffered particularly big die-offs in recent years, with 66m trees killed in the Sierra Nevada alone since 2010, according to the Forestry Service.
In northern California, an invasive pathogen called Sudden Oak Death is infecting hundreds of different plants, from redwoods and ferns to backyard oaks and bay laurels. The disease is distantly related to the cause of the 19th-century Irish potato famine, and appears to have arrived with two "Typhoid Marys", rhododendrons and bay laurels, said Dr David Rizzo, of the University of California, Davis.
"We're talking millions of trees killed, whole mountain sides dying," Rizzo said.
Oozing from the bark of a live oak (Quercus) suffering from Sudden Oak Death. Photograph: Inga Spence/Getty Images/Visuals Unlimited 
Despite its name, the pathogen slowly saps the life from oaks over the course of two to five years, turning them sickly brown. The disease spreads mostly through water, like rain splashing off an infected leaf on to a healthy neighbor. Rizzo said wind-driven rain could carry it miles at a time, and that it already ranged from the Oregon border down through the forests of Big Sur.
We're talking millions of trees killed, whole mountain sides dying Dr David Rizzo
The pestilence appears to have arrived in the US through nursery plants in the 1980s, said Matteo Garbelotto, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who researches the genetics of the disease and trees that resist it. Garbelotto said researchers have found three distinct "subspecies" of the pathogen in the US – only one of which has escaped into the wild.
"There's a bit of concern here that maybe we're not doing enough to prevent introduction of other two lineages," he said. Authorities have quarantined 15 counties to keep infected plants from leaving, but Garbelotto fears that authorities lack the resources to do more.
Native American tribes are helping Rizzo's research near Oregon, and Garbelotto's team developed a mobile app that users can direct at a given tree to determine its risk for disease, and what they can do to protect it.
"It's a little bit like talking about mosquito abatement and malaria," Garbelotto said of efforts to protect some trees by isolating them. "You try to reduce the number of vectors, eliminate immediate neighbors, a bit like putting a mosquito net around the tree."

'Insect eruptions'
Five years of drought in the west have not only starved trees of water but weakened their defenses and created conditions for "insect eruptions" across the US, said Diana Six, an entomologist at the University of Montana. Bark beetles and mountain pine beetles, usually held in check by wet winters, now have more time to breed and roam. The latter have already expanded their range from British Columbia across the Rockies, to the Yukon border and eastward, into jack pine forests that have never seen the bug.
The outbreak is "something like 10 times bigger than normal, I would argue a lot more than that," Six said. "Basically a native insect is acting outside of the norm, because of climate change, and become an exotic in forests it's never been before. We haven't seen very good outcomes of exotics moving into native forests."
Thousands of trees killed by mountain pine beetles in western Rocky Mountain national park. Photograph: National Parks Service 
Boosted by climate change, various beetles and the fungi they carry have already wiped out millions of acres of trees, and Six and Rizzo both warned of cascading effects. In the redwoods, Rizzo said, the loss of tanoaks and their relatives would strip away nut-producing species, leaving birds and mammals that rely on them without food. The loss of mountain pines, Six said, threatens grizzly bears and the critical snowpack that supplies water to life below.
In a few decades, Americans might not even recognize forests they see
"There's virtually nothing you can do to stop the beetles, either, unless they've killed everything and run out of food," Six said. "Or unless the climate cools, and I don't think anyones expecting that anytime soon."
In Hawaii, warming temperatures have helped spread four types of beetles that bore into ohi'a bark to feed. The beetles carry disease spore on their wings, in their guts and in the sawdust of burrows, spreading it from tree to tree.
The beetles are part of scolylinae, a "very destructive family" that is also decimating trees in California, according to Curtis Ewing, an entomologist at the University of Hawaii.
"They are exploding around the world due to global warming," he said. They appear unstoppable: spraying each tree with insecticide would be time-consuming and made futile by rain, and pheromone-laced traps also appear ineffective. The university's arboretum has started collecting ohi'a seeds in the face of a doomsday scenario that was recently unimaginable for such a common tree.

'An ecological emergency'
Scientists in Keith's lab have made some progress, finding that the fungal disease was part of the common ceratocystis family. It was probably imported to Hawaii by an ornamental plant, but a global DNA database drew a blank; this was an entirely new strain.
The effects of the goldspotted oak borer beetle in California.
Photograph: Mike Blake/Reuters
"I would've thought that with the extensive information there, there would've been a match," Keith said. "It's a worry."
The spores look golden under the microscope and give off a fruity smell. Once they grip a tree the fungus clogs up the vascular system that trees use to draw water upwards. Leaves die, then the tree itself.
If you slice right through an infected tree, you find a starburst of dark fungus at the core. "It's like someone's arteries filling up with plaque and then they keel over," Friday said.
While research continues for a treatment, scientists' current priority is containment. Movement of ohi'a between islands is prohibited, but with an uncertain source, there's little else to do other than cut down infected trees and burn them.
"This is an ecological emergency," said Hawaii senator Brian Schatz. "It requires everyone working together to save Hawaii island's native forests."
In western valleys of dead trees, a few still stand unharmed. Six said genetic research has begun to try to understand why some survive the swarms of millions of insects. "The only thing that's really going to help our forests move into the future with climate change is adaptation," she said. "Forests need to actually adapt with genetic change."
In a few decades, Americans might not even recognize forests they see, Rizzo said. When his grandfather grew up near Philadelphia, he said, gigantic chestnut trees towered over eastern forests.
"When I show people photos they think they're redwoods," Rizzo said. When he hiked the Appalachian trial in the 1980s he found tiny sprouts of chestnuts, three-inches wide, stunted by an invasive blight that had wiped out the old giants.
"It changed chestnut forests to oak and hickory forests," he said. "We know we can't get rid of some of these blights. We may have to learn to live with them."

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