The world's leading agriculture organization sounds an urgent alarm as temperatures climb and water use is expected to rise.
Farmers worldwide are entering a period of increasing uncertainty as
climate change compromises food production in areas already sensitive to
food insecurity, a new report from the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization cautions. And the group predicted to be most affected will
be women.
The annual report by the FAO, the top global collector of data on
global food and farming trends, ties together poverty, hunger, and
climate change to persuade governments to adopt policy changes that will
protect farmers of the future. The 2016 edition of The State of Food
and Agriculture urges countries to help their farmers rely less on
natural resources and to find ways to use water and fertilizer more
efficiently.
"We need to make major changes in the way we produce food and manage
agricultural systems," says Rob Vos, director of agricultural economics
for the Food and Agriculture Organization. "Climate change is already
affecting many parts of the world, particularly in Africa and many
tropical areas. If we don't make the systems involved in agriculture
more resilient, food security will be in jeopardy."
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| 2016 data showing countries most vulnerable to food insecurity due to climate change. MAP BY FAO |
All farmers will be affected by global changes, but the FAO says the
impact on women will be the most dramatic. Female farmers account for 43
percent of agricultural workers in developing countries, yet they face
substantial disadvantages compared to men, including disproportionally
high demands on their time to run a home, paltry access to agricultural
tools and methods, and limitations in the credit markets that allow
others to remain nimble in the face of environmental changes. Women
worldwide tended to invest less money in things that might make their
farms more productive.
"The obstacles that confront women
farmers mean that they achieve lower yields than their male
counterparts," an FAO dossier on Women and Agriculture reported in 2011,
the last time the organization comprehensively studied female farmers.
"Yet women are as good at farming as men. Solid empirical evidence shows
that if women farmers used the same level of resources as men on the
land they farm, they would achieve the same yield levels."
Researchers point to particular risk for countries the UN describes as
"developing"—those with little access to the farming technology that
makes climate change a less daunting foe in wealthier countries. But it
warns that warming temperatures and less predictable rainfall are
expected to hurt agriculture on every continent. (For more on how this
affects African nations, see How African Farmers Face a Warming
Climate.)
In North America, yields of major crops, including corn and soybeans,
will decline modestly through 2050, followed by a steeper decline by
2100, the report says. The stress of higher heat and reduced quality of
forage for livestock is projected to reduce milk quality. South America
may see higher wheat and soybean productivity, thanks to higher
temperatures, but increased salinity will yield more desert zones in
parts of Brazil and Chile that now support a good deal of those
countries’ crops.
Scientists expect areas in Europe and Asia to benefit from thawing
polar regions that will open new arable land, yet higher temperatures
will increase demand for water and cause substantial drop-offs in rice
yields over large areas of these continents. Likewise, in Australia, New
Zealand, and the Pacific Islands, farmers will face extended seasons of
heavy rain and parching drought.
The continent most at risk is Africa, largely a result of fragmented
food systems, high poverty, and government instability. Progress that
several countries have made on food security and crop diversity may be
undone when those crops, such as maize and rice, are unsuited for a
warmer world, and when farmers don't have the money or resources to make
investments in new seeds, farming methods, or equipment.
Amid the report's urgent warnings and cautionary suggestions is also
some good news. FAO officials say that India and Kenya as examples of
countries making the right moves. Both countries are at high risk for
climate disaster, but the Indian government has implemented policies to
help its farmers diversify their farm production, as well as directly
empowered women. In one community project in the Indian state of
Maharashtra, builders installed new sources of drinking water and
firewood, which reduced the amount of time women spent collecting both.
The worst-case scenarios of climate change could erode much of this
progress, however, causing India and Kenya's agricultural sectors to
slide back into "developing" status. Officials use this fact to
underscore the urgency of instituting smart agriculture practices
immediately.
No country will be inoculated from the
harsh impacts of climate change. Every place on Earth trying to feed a
growing population an increasingly diverse diet—which is to say, every
country—will find significant challenges posed by warming temperatures,
even if changes turn out to be modest.
The United States will face its share of challenges. But it is one of
the best equipped nations for agricultural adaptation considering its
widespread availability of seeds, technology, and weather monitoring
systems. A 2015 study from Carnegie Mellon University found that for the
U.S. to grow more fruits and vegetables over the next several decades,
it would need to increase its energy use by 38 percent, its water by 10
percent. This would also result in an increase in greenhouse gas
emissions by six percent.
On top of adapting to climate change, farmers will also face new
demands to to meet changing nutrition standards, while at the same time
reducing environmental impact of their activities. Individual farmers
can do their part, but the lasting solution, FAO officials say, will
come from governments. “There are a number of compounding factors that
come together," says Vos. "If those factors can be addressed all
together, they can drive big changes for everyone."
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