The World’s Poorest Most at Risk From Drought, Conflict

Climate Central - Brian Kahn

Agriculture is the key source — and in many cases, the only source — of income for many living in the developing world. When drought hits, it has the potential to take away everything and unravel the threads that stitch together society.

New findings published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academies of Science are part of a burgeoning body of literature showing how climate change can lead to conflict. It shows that drought exacerbates existing conflicts in some of the poorest countries and the farmers who are most dependent on a stable climate for their livelihoods. The findings highlight why climate change is intimately tied with development, national security and morality.

Drawing water in Mauritania during a severe drought that hit East Africa in 2012. Credit: Oxfam International/flickr

The impact of climate change on conflict is an area of intense research and interest. With carbon pollution expected to continue altering the climate, knowing its impact on conflict would be a major asset to researchers and policymakers looking to make the world a more peaceful place.

A number of previous studies have studied climate and conflict. Among the more tantalizing findings was that drought in Syria helped spark the subsequent civil war that has torn the country asunder. Rather than taking a high-level view as a number of previous studies have or focusing on a specific conflict, the new research zooms in to the subnational level in Africa and Asia and looks at drought during the growing season.

The results show that drought during growing seasons can prolong or intensify existing conflicts, though it’s not as likely to spark new ones.

“This effect is most pronounced in countries that are not very developed economically,” said Nina von Uexkull, a peace and conflict researcher at Uppsala University in Sweden who led the new study. “It’s also pronounced in groups excluded from political power.”
Von Uexkull’s findings also show that groups heavily reliant on agriculture are most at-risk. In essence, drought preys on already weak groups and institutions, eating away at what little stability they have. The results specifically show that drought increases the odds of conflict by about 5 percent.
That might sound small, but Marshall Burke, an economist at Stanford University, said the number belies how big that risk might be even in communities where the linkage seems relatively weak.
“This could represent like a 50 percent or greater increase in the probability of conflict,” Burke said in an email. “That is a HUGE effect.”
Research and reality have regularly pointed to the fact the world’s poorest will be hit the hardest by climate change. The findings are the latest to underscore how climate change is as much a development and justice issue as it is an environmental one.

Women carry cotton during the harvest in Burkina Faso. Credit: CIFOR/flickr

“This important study sheds light on the importance of context when examining the complex and often controversial relationship between climate, drought and conflict,” said Colin Kelley, a researcher at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society who authored the research on Syria. “Existing vulnerability, due to a host of potential factors, is extremely important when considering the impact that drought may (or may not) have on civil conflict.”
The findings could add fuel to the discussion at United Nations climate talks next month in Morocco, which will focus on the thorny topic of loss-and-damage or how developed countries will help developing countries recover from climate and weather disasters. With climate change expected to make dry places drier and increase the incidence of drought in some locations, the findings could make conflict a bigger part of the loss-and-damage discussion.
For all the bad news in the study, there’s also a sliver of good news. Groups that are more stable and have access to diverse sources of income aren’t as prone to conflict following drought. Von Uexkull said the findings are a compelling case for targeting international development in a way that also helps people adapt to changes in the climate.
“It’s extremely important from an climate adaptation point of view to understand these circumstances,” she said. “It will help design policies in areas where this relationship occurs and where in the future climate change will make drought worse.”

Links

• Climate Change a ‘Contributing Factor’ in Syrian Conflict
• Climate & Conflict: Warmer World May be More Violent
• Weather Disasters Can Fuel War in Volatile Countries
• September an Exclamation Point on String of Hot Months
• Scientists Warn Negative Emissions Are a ‘Moral Hazard’
• Record Warmth Helps Shrink U.S. Carbon Emissions

Places Around The World Running Out Of Water

MSN

With surging populations, the world is coping with the increased demand for water. A rapidly urbanizing population further strains the water supply. A report by the World Resources Institute ranks countries that face a high risk of their water resources running out by 2040. We take a look at some of these places that might run out of water soon. Adam Pretty/Getty Images

Kazakhstan 

Central Asia's largest nation has scarce amounts of water and around 50 percent of the population consumes poor quality drinking water that fails to meet international standards. Inefficient agricultural practices have worsened the situation as crop yield continues to go down without a decrease in the amount of water being used. The region's largest lake, the Aral Sea (pictured) has also been rapidly shrinking, impacting the region's fresh water supply. Vyacheslav Oseledko/Getty Images

Morocco 

A serious gap between the demand and supply of water and the deterioration of the quality of water have led to widespread water shortages in the country. Current bodies of water are also being polluted by industrial and urban waste. Rafael Marchante/Reuters

Azerbaijan

Due to climate change, water supply is expected to be reduced 23 percent from 2021 to 2050. photoaliona/Getty Images

Macedonia 

Decreasing rainfall has led to the country's groundwater and rivers not being replenished. Water level in the rivers has fallen and the eastern part of the country faces frequent droughts. Around 40 percent of the water is currently used for irrigation and that amount is also predicted to increase. Francisco Goncalves/Getty Images

Yemen 

The ongoing civil war has affected the country's water situation with various reports stating the capital Sana'a will run out of water as soon as 2017. Only 40 percent of the households in the city are connected to the municipal water supply and they get water maybe twice a week. The country doesn't harvest rainwater and they currently rely on dwindling groundwater supplies. Mohammed Hamoud/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Libya 

Around 90 percent of the country is desert and the groundwater recharge rate is one-fourth the rate of consumption. The country has also expanded agricultural activity by planting water intensive crops and is not reusing its treated wastewater properly. cinoby/Getty Images

Jordan 

The cost of water in the country has gone up 30 percent in the last decade due to a shortage of groundwater. Jordan is the third driest country in the world and much of the country's water network is aging. They have no water resources other than underground aquifers. The influx of Syrian refugees in the country has worsened the situation. Mohammad Abu Ghosh/AP Images

Iran 

A soaring population and the desert are Iran's main causes for water shortage. Droughts are an annual occurrence and there is a lack of storage dams. There is poor wastewater management that is further polluting their sparse water resources. Lake Urmia (pictured), once the largest lake in the region, has also shrunk to 10 percent of its size because of dams, increasing the salinity of the lake. Scott Peterson/Getty Images

Kyrgyzstan 

Despite being home to 6,500 glaciers and around 2,000 lakes, Kyrgyzstan still faces water shortages due to the poor maintenance of its Soviet era plumbing and water supply systems. In addition, the rural population is greater than the urban population and they are highly dependent on water-intensive activities like agriculture. Vikto Drachev/Getty Images

Lebanon 

A large part of the country only gets water for a few hours daily with many also resorting to bottled water and tankers for their daily needs. The country has mismanaged its water resources and has failed to provide for their growing population. Mohamed Azakir/Reuters

Oman 

An increasing population and falling groundwater levels are the main cause of Oman's water problems. The country has several desalination plants that supply 80 percent of the potable water but they are failing to meet the rising demand. Archivio J. Lange/Getty Images

Saudi Arabia 

The country doesn't have a single perennial source of water and has started taxing residents for water. Saudi Arabia also has one of the highest levels of water consumption per capita in the world. Mohamed Hwaity/AFP/Getty Images

Israel 

As a result of climate change and poor resource management, data shows the water level in the Sea of Galilee – the country's main water source - is decreasing. David Silverman/Getty Images

Palestine 

Israel reduces the flow of water to the country in times of stress. The crisis is further exaggerated during times of strife when water pipelines can get shelled and damaged. Israel also has discriminatory water-sharing agreements with Palestine. Eyad Al-Baba/Getty Images

United Arab Emirates 

The United Arab Emirates has the highest per capita consumption of water in the world. Some estimate that they will completely run out of natural freshwater in the next 50 years. Relying on desalinated water, treated waste water and ground water, it's one of the least water secure countries. They are now investing in cloud seeding technology to increase the rainfall in the country. Godong/Getty Images

Singapore 

With the highest level of water stress faced by a country, the demand for water far exceeds its natural supply. Currently they depend on Malaysia for the import of water, but with investments in technology and water management, they plan to become self-sufficient in the near future. Roslan Rahman/Getty Images

Qatar 

With one of the world's lowest levels of rainfall, Qatar faces the immense challenge of looking for an alternative source of freshwater. Their per capita use of water is twice the average consumption in the European Union and their population is expected to grow eightfold by 2050. typhoonski/Getty Images

Kuwait 

The desert country relies on desalination plants for their water in the absence of rivers or lakes. They are dependent solely on groundwater and the meager rainfall they receive, meaning the country has almost no renewable source of groundwater. Craig F. Walker/Getty Images

Bahrain 

The country has experienced dramatic population growth due to their economy improving in the past few decades. Around 89 percent of the population was urbanized in 2015 leading to a high rate of water consumption. Their only source of water is the erratic rainfall that replenishes their groundwater. John Gaps III/AP Photo

Animals Threatened By Climate Change

MSN

From polar bears to seabirds, many terrestrial and marine animals are being threatened by climate change. These animals are being hit hard by disappearing habitat, warming oceans, increasing droughts and wildfires. Here's a look at the endangered animals.

Beluga Whale Beluga whales are commonly found across the Arctic Ocean in the coastal waters of North America, Russia and Greenland. The worldwide population of this species of toothed whales is estimated to be around 150,000. Rapidly melting sea ice and increased maritime traffic pose threats to the survival of beluga whales and also impacts marine ecosystems. In 2008, these marine mammals were listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List as being "near endangered," while the subpopulation from the Cook Inlet in Alaska, are listed under "critically endangered" species and protected by the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Tim Clayton/Corbis/Getty Images	Tiger The wild tiger can be found across Africa and Asia. The population of the largest cat species had dropped to 3,200 (2010) due to poaching, global warming, habitat loss and habitat fragmentation. The rising level of sea water in the Sundarbans regions can lead to further loss of habitat. Sustained conservation efforts are being made to save the species and hence in 2016, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) declared that count of wild tigers across the globe has increased to 3,890. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Snow Leopard The species is found mainly in the mountain ranges of Central and South Asia. Global warming causes the tree line to move higher up the mountains in the Himalayas, resulting in the shrinking of not just their habitat but also that of their prey. The population of snow leopards is currently estimated to be around 4,500 to 7,500. James Devaney/WireImage/Getty Images	Flamingo There are total six species of flamingos in the world, four in the Americas and two in Africa, Europe, and Asia. These long-legged "wading birds" are not endangered, but are listed in CITES Appendix II that lists species that require protection and are believed to be under threat or are likely to become endangered. The Chilean flamingo is the most numerous of the South American flamingos with an estimated total population of not more than 200,000, while the population of James' flamingo is estimated to be 64,000. PhotoPlus Magazine/Getty Images
Whooping Crane With a total population accounting for 603 birds as on February 2015, the whooping cranes - so called for its whooping sound - are found mainly in North America. Dry weather and drought affect their sources of food and lead to poor breeding. Rising ocean levels pose a threat to the survival of whopping cranes. Conservation efforts have been made but nothing significant has been achieved so far. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images	Giant Panda Native to south and central China, giant pandas have been declared to be critically endangered by the IUCN. According to experts, their population is likely to drop vastly by 2020, owing to depletion of their main source of food - bamboo - with climate change being the reason. The plant's reproductive cycle spread over unusually long intervals makes it unsuitable to adapt to changing climate conditions. Conservation efforts are being made to help pandas overcome predicted bamboo famine. Currently, 864 giant pandas are estimated to be left in China. Mohd Rasfan/AFP/Getty Images
Koala Koalas are native to Australia and herbivores. The total population of the species is estimated between 45,000 and 90,000, according to Australian Koala Foundation (AKF). With increasing droughts and bushfires caused due to climate change, the already challenged population of Koalas is expected to drop further. Ian Waldie/Getty Images	Asian Rhino One-horned rhinos are mainly found in Northern India and Nepal. Changing seasonal patterns with irregular monsoon cycles and increasing droughts have upset the vegetation health that the vulnerable species feeds on. As of 2015, the population of the species is about 3,500. Biju Boro/AFP/Getty Images
African Elephant The large terrestrial African elephant is worst affected by floods, droughts and wildfires caused due to climate change. Irregular weather patterns affect the level of sea water and forces the elephants to travel far away to unprotected areas in search of water, this leads to poaching when they come in contact with human population. In 2014, the population of African elephants was estimated to be around 700,000, as per the WWF. Jan Hrbacek / Barcroft Media /Getty Images	Orangutan The species are already endangered owing to oil palm plantations that are made by destroying their natural habitat in the forests. These apes that are native to Indonesia and Malaysia are further threatened due to rising temperature levels and declining rainfall levels leading to unprecedented droughts and forest fires. Currently, the population of the Bornean orangutan is estimated to about 45,000-69,000 and that of the Sumatran orangutan to be about 7,500. Juan Mabromata/AFP/Getty Images
Caribou The endangered species - also classified as reindeer - are found in North America, Greenland and parts of Europe and Asia. It is listed under IUCN. Professor Russell Graham, associate professor of geosciences and director of the Earth and Mineral Sciences Museum at Penn State University, U.S. believes that global warming will affect animals living in the coldest regions tremendously. Their insulated fur and sweat glands that help them survive harsh winters render them particularly unfit for hotter months. G. Cappelli/Rex Shutterstock	Cheetah The world's fastest animal can be found in various parts of Africa and Asia. According to scientists at the National Museums of Kenya (NMK) and the Kenya Wildlife Service, the ability to reproduce is declining among the African cheetah due to global warming. Approximately, 9,000 to 12,000 cheetahs are left in Africa. Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images
Frog These creatures found from the tropics to subarctic regions have cold blood and thin skin and, even minor changes in temperatures can be life threatening. Depletion of rainforests is therefore a contributing factor to their degeneration. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, more than 6,000 of this species are at risk of extinction. Waring Abbott/Getty Images	Sea Otter Sea otters are found across the coasts of the northern and eastern North Pacific Ocean. Apart from being hunted for their fur, the animals also face threat to their survival due to climate change leading to changes in ocean temperature. Currently, the worldwide population is accounted to be about 106,000. PM/AP Images
Northern hairy-nosed Wombat These marsupials are found across south-eastern Australia. Increasing number of droughts driven by climate change account for the dwindling population of these Northern hairy-nosed wombats. As of 2010, there are 163 Northern hairy-nosed wombats on the planet. DEA / C.DANI / I.JESKE/De Agostini/Getty Images	American Pika The American Pika, which belongs to the rabbit family, is mainly found in western North America. According to the IUCN Red List, the animal is not considered threatened, near-threatened or conservation dependent. However, It is being considered for protection under the Endangered Species Act by the Wildlife Service due to global warming, which is one of the most important factors contributing to their decline in numbers. They are used to cold alpine climes and can die if exposed to heat. Currently, the population of the American Pika is around 1.8 million. Arterra/UIG via Getty Images
Musk Oxen The species can be found in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland, and small populations in Sweden, Siberia, Norway and Alaska. These animals are used to living in the coldest regions and hence their distribution is adversely affected due to global warming. Currently, the population of musk oxen is somewhere between 80,000 and 125,000. Mark Thiessen/AP Images	Polar Bear Polar bears spend most of their time on the ice to hunt for their main source of food – seal. But when ice rapidly melts due to rising temperatures, they tend to spend less time on ice and more time on dry land in search of alternate food sources. According to experts, there are approximately 22,000 to 31,000 polar bears left in the world. Photos_martYmage/iStock/Getty Images
Galapagos Penguin The Galapagos penguins are among the smallest species of penguin in the world and is the most distinctive as it lives further north than other penguin species. They are considered endangered with less than 2,000 left. According to the World Wildlife Fund, almost half of the population has been wiped out due to severe El Niño weather conditions over the last few decades. Danita Delimont/Gallo Images/Getty Images	Tufted Puffin The tufted puffin is a seabird native to North America. This species of seabirds feed primarily by diving in the water and breed in large colonies. However, due to the warming temperatures, there has been a decline in the growth rates of puffin nestlings. The WWF believes that breeding may decrease further if climate change continues to get worse. According to the North American Waterbird Conservation Plan, around 2,750,000 to 3,000,000 tufted puffins are left in the world. RONSAN4D/iStock/Getty Images
Ringed Seal Ringed seals, the smallest seal species, live in the Arctic sea where they rely on the ice pack for their food source. The ringed seal newborns spend the first few weeks in the snow to protect them from freezing and predators. When there is less snow, the newborns are that much more vulnerable to those predators. Four subspecies of the ringed seal are listed as endangered or threatened. Franco Banfi/WaterFrame/Getty Images	Sea Turtle Over half of the existing species of sea turtles are already classified as endangered. Two of the common reasons that have led to this extinction are rising temperatures and rising sea levels. The temperature of the nest determines the sex of a sea turtle – cooler temperatures produce male eggs and warmer temperatures produce female eggs - some turtle nests are already producing almost 90 percent females. In addition, greater erosion of our beaches provide less safe haven for the eggs to hatch. Tbanny/iStock/Getty Images
North Atlantic Right Whale Listed as endangered since the 1970s, the North Atlantic right whale migrates along the eastern coast of the U.S. Changes in seawater temperatures have limited the amount of zooplankton in the oceans, a staple food of this whale species. It is estimated that there are fewer than 500 of these whales left and if their primary food source continues to disappear, it could affect the species' ability to survive. The total population of the species is believed to be around 450. David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images	Lobster Lobsters are cold-blooded and their body temperature is dependent on the water in which they live. High water temperature makes them use more energy for breathing, which leave their bodies stressed and with less energy for other activities such as feeding, growth, energy storage, immune response and reproduction. In addition, warming waters harbor bacteria that are harmful to lobsters and scientists are seeing an increase in shell disease among lobsters. Don Johnston/All Canada Photos/Getty Images
Orange-spotted filefish The orange-spotted filefish are completely dependent on the coral reefs where they live – the same coral reefs that are now in danger due to coral bleaching. This species is also very sensitive to warm waters. In fact, the fish is locally extinct in Japan because of warm ocean temperatures. Nicola Guaiana/EyeEm/Getty Images	Atlantic cod In recent years, there has been a major decline in the number of Atlantic cod due to over-fishing. However, warmer water temperatures has also led to the decline. Doug Allan/Getty Images
Ivory Gulls The number of ivory gulls has gone down over the years due to decline in sea ice. These gulls nest on rocky cliffs and fly to the sea ice in search of fish. But when sea ice melts away, the coastal nesting sites are severely affected. In fact, the number of ivory gulls in Canada has already decreased by 90 percent over the last 20 years. In 2012, the global population of ivory gulls was estimated to be between 19,000 and 27,000. Michael S. Nolan/Age fotostock/Getty Images	Walrus Walruses use the ice edge in coastal areas as platforms to dive and feed on clams. But when the ice melts due to drop in temperature they have to go to deeper areas and sometimes even travel on floating ice in search of food. Currently, the global population of walruses is estimated to be 250,000. Wildestanimal/Moment/Getty Images
Dugong The main food source for the marine herbivorous mammal dugong is seagrass beds. But due to cyclones, floods and heavy rainfall, the seagrass beds are disappearing leaving less food for the dugong. According to WWF, there are about 85,000 dugongs currently in Australia. Auscape/Universal Images Group/Getty Images	Coral Rising ocean temperatures are causing a phenomenon called 'coral bleaching' in our ocean's coral reefs. Coral bleaching occurs when the warming waters cause so much stress on the corals that they expel the algae that provides them most of their food. Scientists in Australia are seeing an unprecedented 50 percent mortality rate in the coral reef near Cape York due to this. Daniela Dirscherl/WaterFrame/Getty Images
Spectacled Eider Spectacled eider are large ducks that breed on the coastline. In winter, they gather in a small, cold, and nutrient-rich area of the Bering Sea, where they dive for clams and other marine life. But climate warming holds a potential threat to these birds and their habitat. As per the Winter surveys in the Bering Sea, the minimum worldwide population of spectacled eiders is about 370,000. Mike Powles/Oxford Scientific/Getty Images	Laysan Albatross More than 90 percent of the Laysan albatross live in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The large birds travel through strong winds and cover hundreds of miles in a day. A major threat to these seabirds is the rising sea-levels that flood their nesting grounds. In 2006, it was estimated that 1,180,000 mature Laysan albatross birds are left. PilipenkoD/iStock/Getty Images