30/10/2016

Global Mass Extinction Of Wildlife By 2020 Warning Issued In Living Planet Index

Huffington Post - Kathryn Snowdon

The global wildlife population is expected to drop 67% by 2020.



Nature is facing a global "mass extinction" for the first time since the demise of the dinosaurs as global wildlife populations are expected to drop by more than two thirds by the end of the decade.
A landmark report of 14,152 populations of 3,706 species of mammals, birds, fish, amphibians and reptiles from around the world reveals a 58% fall between 1970 and 2012 - with no sign the average 2% drop in numbers each year will slow.
By 2020, populations of vertebrate species could have fallen by 67% over a 50-year period unless action is taken to reverse the damaging impacts of human activity, the Living Planet Index from WWF and the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) said.
African elephants, orcas, tigers, mountain gorillas, amphibians and leatherback turtles are just some of the species most under threat of extinction.
African elephants in Tanzania have seen numbers crash due to poaching, maned wolves in Brazil are threatened by grasslands being turned into farmland and European eels have declined due to disease, over-fishing and changes to their river habitats.
Species are being increasingly affected by unsustainable agriculture and fishing, as well as mining and other human activities that cause habitats to be lost or become degraded.
Wildlife is also being hit by over-exploitation, climate change and pollution, the report warned.

 African elephant
Africa's elephant population has crashed by an estimated 111,000 in the past decade primarily due to poaching.  2016 estimates suggest there are 415,000 elephants across the 37 range states in Africa. Karel Prinsloo/AP
Maned wolf
The maned wolf, along with other large mammals including the giant anteater, is threatened by the increasing conversion of grasslands into farmland for grazing and growing crops in the Brazilian Cerrado. Auscape via Getty Images
Hellbender salamander
The hellbender salamander underwent population declines of 77 per cent across five locations in Missouri between 1975 and 1995. Degradation of habitat from the effects of agriculture and the recreational use of rivers is believed to be the main cause of the decline. Rick Callahan/AP
Orca
Orca populations in European waters are under threat from persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Despite legislative restrictions on their use, these pollutants are still present in orcas' blubber at levels that exceed all known marine mammal toxicity thresholds. ASSOCIATED PRESS
The leatherback turtle
The leatherback turtle has become increasingly rare in both the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. For example, it declined by 95 per cent between 1989 and 2002 in Las Baulas National Park in Costa Rica. This decline was caused mainly by mortality at sea due to individuals being caught as by-catch and by development around nesting beaches. Similar trends have been observed throughout the species range. David McFadden/AP
The European eel
The European eel is declining due to disease, overfishing and changes to its freshwater habitat that impede its migration to the sea to breed. Yannis Behrakis / Reuters
Himalayan griffon, White-backed vulture, long-billed vulture and slender-billed vulture
The White-backed vulture, long-billed vulture, slender-billed vulture and the Himalayan griffon (pictured) have been decimated throughout South East Asia over the past 20 years due to the widespread use of the anti-inflammatory cattle drug diclofenac. The drug causes kidney failure in birds that eat the carcasses of recently-treated cattle. AP PhotoWichai Taprieu
Yangtze river dolphin
The Yangtze river dolphin has declined largely due to incidental mortality by collisions with fishing vessels and entanglement in fishing gear An intensive survey carried out in China in 2006 failed to find any evidence that the species survives. Stephen Leatherwood/PA Archive
Gharial
India and Nepal: degradation of its habitat, accidental bycatch in fishing nets and harvesting of eggs have led to declines of this critically endangered species of crocodile. PRAKASH MATHEMA via Getty Images
Amphibians
A species of fungus that causes chytridiomycosis, a disease of amphibians, is implicated in the steep decline or extinction of more than 200 species. ASSOCIATED PRESS
Major Mitchell's cockatoo
Major Mitchell's cockatoo underwent a precipitous population crash in Australia, largely due to the illegal taking of eggs for the pet trade. The population is now slowly recovering due to better enforcement of the law, but the species remains at risk from the clearing of woodland habitat and the destruction of nesting trees. slpu9945 via Getty Images
Asian tiger
About 3,900 tigers are left in the wild facing threats of habitat destruction, climate change, and human wildlife conflict. The species is critically endangered. Ratnakorn Piyasirisorost via Getty Images
Amur leopards
As few as 70 Amur leopards are left in the wild, facing  threats of habitat destruction and human wildlife conflict. The species is critically endangered. ASSOCIATED PRESS
Giant Panda
1,864 giant pandas remain in the wild. Threats include human wildlife conflict and climate change. The species is listed as vulnerable. ASSOCIATED PRESS
Mountain gorilla
880 of the critically endangered mountain gorilla remain in the wild facing threats of habitat destruction and human wildlife conflict.  Ben Curtis/AP
It  is not just wildlife that is being affected, with humans also the "victims" of the deteriorating state of nature, as they depend on breathable air, drinkable water and nutritious food, the report said.
While wildlife continues to decline on average, species that depend on certain habitats have seen some improvements in recent years, the report revealed.
Grassland species have increased slightly since 2004, which the report puts down to conservation efforts for some mammals in Africa, though bird populations continued to decline.
Overall terrestrial species, which are found in habitats ranging from grasslands to forests, have seen populations drop by two-fifths (38%) since 1970.
Freshwater species are faring even worse, with declines of four-fifths (81%) between 1970 and 2012.
Wetland wildlife has seen an increase since 2005, and marine species have been stable since 1988 - although the majority of stocks that contribute most to global fish catches are now either fully fished or overfished, the report warned.
Mike Barrett, director of science and policy at WWF-UK, said: "For the first time since the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago, we face a global mass extinction of wildlife.
"We ignore the decline of other species at our peril – for they are the barometer that reveals our impact on the world that sustains us.
"Humanity's misuse of natural resources is threatening habitats, pushing irreplaceable species to the brink and threatening the stability of our climate."
But he added: "We know how to stop this. It requires governments, businesses and citizens to rethink how we produce, consume, measure success and value the natural environment.
"In the UK, this demands a serious plan to strengthen protection for habitats and species and new measures to fast-track low-carbon growth."
Professor Ken Norris, director of science at ZSL said: "Human behaviour continues to drive the decline of wildlife populations globally, with particular impact on freshwater habitats.
"Importantly, however, these are declines – they are not yet extinctions – and this should be a wake-up call to marshal efforts to promote the recovery of these populations."
The report highlights the success of habitat protection and strict controls on hunting in Europe to help restore populations of wildlife including bears, lynx, wolverines and wolves.

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Rapidly Warming Mediterranean Headed for Desertification, Study Warns

InsideClimate News - Sabrina Shankman

Even with 2 degrees of global warming, the current global goal, desertification would overtake parts of this lush and vibrant region.
People rush to the beach during heat waves in the Mediterranean region, which will get more extreme as the globe warms. Credit: Getty Images
If the Earth warms much more than it already has, the climate and ecosystems of the Mediterranean region might suddenly become unrecognizable, according to a new study.
The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, found that even if warming is constrained to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times—which is the central goal of the Paris climate agreement—the Mediterranean region would see changes never experienced during recorded history.
With 2 degrees of warming, Morocco, for instance, would see increased temperatures and drought that would drive the southern deserts further north, displacing forests. Deserts would expand in the Middle East, too, pushing temperate forests higher into the mountains.
If warming continues unabated, the results would be significantly worse. The study found that all of southern Spain would become desert and most of the deciduous forests in the region would be replaced by shrubs and bushes.
These changes are already close at hand.
The Mediterranean is already warming faster than much of the rest of the world. Globally, temperatures have risen an average of .85 degrees Celsius since 1880-1920, while the Mediterranean basin has seen 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming. Historically, the Mediterranean has been characterized by mild, wet winters and warm, dry summers. The area is home to roughly 466 million people, and, in addition to its rich biodiversity, its ecosystems provide clean water, flood protection and carbon storage.
The study's authors—Joel Guiot and Wolfgang Cramer, both directors of research at France's National Center of Scientific Research—analyzed pollen locked in layers in sediment over the past 10,000 years. They then compared the ancient conditions with projections about climate and vegetation from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Is the looming change "close to what we have known before or is it very far?" said Guiot. "It's really to put the future in the context of the past."
Calling the study's findings "highly significant," Stephen Jackson, the director of the Department of the Interior's Southwest Climate Science Center, said the past 10,000 years are a critical comparison point. "Western civilization developed in and around the Mediterranean Basin within that period, and we risk going into new climatic territory within a very short time in the absence of emission reductions," said Jackson, who is not affiliated with the study.
The past 10,000 years have seen some periods of extended drought, according to the study. Roughly 3,000 years ago, a drought lasted several centuries, which researchers have cited as a possible factor in the fall of ancient Bronze Age societies before the rise of Classical Greece. The Science study points to two other extended periods of drought, both also associated with declines or collapses of civilizations in the region.
Those droughts were different from the region's current state, and what is projected in the future, in one significant way: They were not accompanied by extended rises in temperature.
A more recent example is the widespread crop failures in Syria in 1998 and 2010 that were attributed to extreme heat and drought. That is widely cited as a reason for that country's political upheaval and civil war.
"It's not just climate—political organization is important as well," said Guiot. "But if you amplify a problem of war with the problem of climate, the consequence can be more important."
The study is one of many these days emphasizing the importance of keeping temperatures well below 2 degrees of warming.
When the Paris Agreement was signed in December 2015, its primary goal read:
"To hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C."
That would mean reducing net emissions of carbon dioxide to zero some time in the mid to late century.
Guiot and Cramer found that holding warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is the only way to keep a recognizable Mediterranean ecosystem.
"The difference is really important," said Guiot. "With 2 degrees of warming, for the Mediterranean we will have a change in the vegetation which has never been known in the past 10,000 years. 1.5 degrees corresponds to the variability of 10,000 years."

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Veteran UK Banker Paul Fisher On Climate Change And The Financial Sector

Saturday Paper - Mike Seccombe

A veteran of Britain’s central bank, Paul Fisher says climate change will have a massive impact on the global financial sector. He talks about managing the risks.
British economist Paul Fisher. CHRIS RATCLIFFE / BLOOMBERG
Paul Fisher recently retired as deputy head of the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority, after a long career in financial markets, financial stability and monetary policy. In September 2015 the bank released a report on the risks to the financial system of dealing with climate change.

Mike Seccombe First, tell us why you’re here.
Paul Fisher I’m here at the request of the Climate Alliance, who approached me in the UK when I was still at the Bank of England. I retired my full-time role at the bank this [northern] summer. I’d been there 26 years. One of the jobs I had in my last couple of years there was co-ordinating the bank’s work on climate change. And in those couple of years, I saw this go from being an issue that was sociopolitical, ethical, moral if you like, to being front and centre as a hard commercial issue. It’s now about what are the risks to financial sector firms that need to be taken into account. So I come at this not from the point of view of a campaigner or a politician or anything like that but as a policymaker and regulator.

MS So what are the risks?
PF Anybody who is a long-term asset-holder potentially is exposed to climate risk. You can divide the risks two ways; there’s physical risk if the climate does change, or as it does change, and that’s fairly easy to think about – floods or whatever. But more interestingly you’ve got the transition risk, and two things are going to happen. [First] the economy will need to restructure in order to try to minimise climate change and that will present both new opportunities for new businesses to grow, and it will be a threat to some existing business models. So you’ve got that structural change. But perhaps even more importantly you’ve got the policy change. Governments have committed to reducing climate change to below 2 degrees Celsius [and] that will evolve a whole series of policies of which we don’t know the full details yet. As those policies come through you could see the repricing of financial assets. People investing in infrastructure will find that is vulnerable to policy [change] risks. We saw a big utility company in Germany, RWE [hit by a share price plunge after Germany changed its energy policy away from coal and nuclear to more renewables]. We see the coal industry in the United States, for various reasons, collapsing. Peabody, for example.

MS It seems to me that the insurance industry, because it has a long-time horizon and takes a very actuarial approach, would be well ahead of the game on this. Is that an accurate reading?
PF In the UK that’s certainly true. The UK is one of the world’s largest insurance markets. Lloyd’s of London writes a lot of catastrophe, risk insurance, so they’ve been on this case for some time. They are experts and certainly helped the Bank of England in doing its work. The other insurers and pension funds, and savings managers generally, are also picking up on it. You are starting to see more of the bigger firms announcing investment policies to reflect climate risk. Banking, I would say, is a bit further behind, but coming along. In some countries now – China for example – if you lend to a polluting company, then you as the lender can be held to account, not just the polluter. China is one of the major forces in the world trying to get this on the agenda, which is relevant to Australia, of course, as a big exporter. Here you have big superannuation companies looking at long-term asset issues.

MS This goes to a question of fiduciary duty then, doesn’t it?
PF Absolutely. Up to now people have said, “Oh, you can’t take account of these things.” Opinions on this are now changing in various ways. First, lawyers point out that what fiduciary duty means is a duty [of company managers and directors] to the corporate entity. That means you have a duty to future shareholders, not just existing shareholders. We’re coming to a point where people say actually it is legitimate to take account of climate risk in any sort of business strategy that is long term. Indeed, in most jurisdictions you have to take account of all material risks. Climate change is … becoming a material risk for more and more firms. If you could have taken it into account and you didn’t and the risks crystallise, you will be held to account for failing in your duties. This is the way the interpretation is going. The law is never static on this sort of thing and it will be interpreted by the courts as time goes on and more evidence mounts that if you didn’t take climate risk into account and it crystallises, you can’t expect the courts to be very sympathetic.

MS Is there sufficient transparency around these long-term risks?
PF What we were most interested in as central bankers was financial stability. And the risk is that you get a sudden repricing of financial assets. The way you mitigate that is disclosure. If we make these firms provide more information about what their exposures and risks are, then investors start to take account of that straight away, so you are less likely to get shocks. When you do get a shock there’s more information out there to reprice accurately. You’re less likely to have … overshooting. The move is to make disclosure more comprehensive and more standardised. This is being done at the moment through the G20’s Financial Stability Board where [Bank of England governor and current FSB chairman] Mark Carney set up this taskforce on climate disclosure, which is due to report by the end of the year. It’s chaired by Michael Bloomberg and is private sector-led, and will hopefully come up with a set of recommendations. You can’t insist on global legislation, but I will be surprised if some jurisdictions don’t take this and translate it into requirements rather than [it being] voluntary.

MS And to what extent has the Australian government been involved?
PF Well, they signed up to the Paris agreement and they are part of the G20. [When the] G20 and the FSB get together they can help put a bit of backbone into each other about what we need to do. Translating that into national actions is going to be interesting. But the Australian government is committed to the Paris agreement.

MS However, Australia’s economy is particularly tied to the fossil fuel industry.
PF This isn’t about stopping the economy from growing. It’s about how we get the maximum sustainable growth rate. It’s about making people more fuel efficient. It’s about making sure energy prices properly reflect the costs that are imposed on society, not just whatever the market price would otherwise be. This isn’t anti-Australia or anti-Australian industry, it’s about what you have to do to get Australian business working on a sustainable basis … given what’s happening to the planet. A lot of people are working behind the scenes quietly with firms to try to get the right position.

MS Nonetheless, we will see a lot of stranded assets here, won’t we?
PF Possibly, but the longer it’s left and the less is done, the more of those stranded assets you get. Even the Saudi Arabians are waking up to the fact that they need to do something else, to diversify their economy, otherwise they’re going to be a bit sunk.

MS Other countries… You mentioned China and the UK…
PF I wouldn’t hold the UK as the gold standard. We are leading in the analysis, more than we are the action. Earlier this year I was part of a study group, co-chaired by the Bank of England and Bank of China, on green finance. China needs something like $600 billion a year to finance their green investment program, for quite some years ahead. They know they’ve got a huge pollution problem, and it goes beyond climate change [to] air and especially water. Green finance was the only thing the Chinese added to the G20 agenda. That shows you how seriously they are taking this. Their potential for expansion of living standards is massive, but if they don’t get a lot better on carbon emissions and [energy] intensity, it’s just not going to be reachable. You will destroy the planet.

MS How long do you think we have to address the financial risk?
PF There is not a fixed interval. It would be much better to be ahead of the curve. The thing about risk is, you can often see the risk is there, but you just don’t know when. That’s what happened with the global financial crisis. People saw the risk, but it didn’t happen and didn’t happen and didn’t happen and when it did, the impact was much bigger. The longer we leave it without doing anything, the bigger it’s likely to be.

MS How did a scientific and economic issue become an ideological one?
PF Once it moves to the financial sector, as it has now, ideology’s out the window. This is a financial risk if you’ve got a long-term asset portfolio. Forget the ideology, do the risk analysis, otherwise you’re not meeting your responsibilities. We need to sweep the politics to one side and say this is just a commercial business risk, like any other, that we need to take into account. It’s coming, and ignoring it or pretending it isn’t there is not going to help.

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