Lethal Heating: 11/16/16

16/11/2016

2016 ‘Very Likely’ To Be The Hottest Year On Record, U.N. Agency Declares

Washington Post - Chris Mooney

Moroccan security stand guard in front of the entrance of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, Morocco. (Youssef Boudlal/Reuters)

In an announcement timed for the ongoing international climate meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco, the U.N. World Meteorological Organization has affirmed what many scientists had already considered inevitable — 2016, the agency said, is “very likely” to be the hottest year on record. That would mean that the past three years — 2014, 2015, and 2016 — have set ever more impressive temperature records in quick succession.
The agency was able to say as much, despite the year not even being over yet, because of the jaw-dropping heat seen throughout much of the year. Multiple months in 2016 set temperature records, buoyed by a strong El Niño event.
Sixteen “of the 17 hottest years on record have been this century,” noted the agency.
Overall, the WMO said, 2016 was 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer on average than temperatures for the preindustrial Earth. That’s a highly significant number, in that it puts the planet quite close to the 1.5-degree-Celsius temperature threshold enshrined as an aspirational goal in the Paris climate agreement. Some scientists have said we could cross 1.5 degrees for good by 2030.

The agency noted that warmth in the Arctic was particularly extreme in 2016. “In parts of Arctic Russia, temperatures were 6°C to 7°C above the long-term average. Many other Arctic and sub-Arctic regions in Russia, Alaska and northwest Canada were at least 3°C above average. We are used to measuring temperature records in fractions of a degree, and so this is different,” said Petteri Taalas, the secretary-general of the WMO, in a statement. The warmth accompanied a host of records, including a peaking of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 407.7 parts per million in May at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and astounding winter warmth, with February and March in particular blowing away global temperature records. This early move to crown 2016 — albeit only in a preliminary way — does not come as much of a surprise. The warmth was so off the charts in early 2016 that as early as May, Gavin Schmidt, who directs the NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (which manages one highly influential temperature data set), tweeted this:

There were also some oddities in 2016 — one patch of ocean near the Antarctic Peninsula has remained surprisingly cool all year. “The most prominent area of below-normal sea surface temperatures was the Southern Ocean south of 45° South (especially around the Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica, where temperatures were more than 1°C below normal in places),” wrote the WMO.
The El Niño event also brought on a surprising surge in global sea levels, which rose 15 millimeters between late 2014 and early 2016, far outstripping the usual pace of around 3 millimeters per year, the WMO reports.
While the WMO relied on data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in proclaiming the 2016 record, these agencies have not announced a formal record yet. They will presumably do so early next year once all the data is in. The WMO said its statement is “provisional” and will be updated in early 2017.
At this point, it seems unlikely that 2017 will set yet another temperature record and exceed that of 2016, especially since the El Niño event has concluded and the world has swung back to La Niña conditions. But that hardly detracts from a record run of temperatures that have coincided with an unprecedented global policy push toward climate action.

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Oil Billionaire Considered To Lead Energy Department

PBS NewsHour - Julie Pace

File photo of Harold Hamm, founder and CEO of Continental Resources, by Steve Sisney/Reuters

WASHINGTON — An oil billionaire, a North Dakota lawmaker and a former Bush administration official are being considered to run Donald Trump’s Energy Department, according to transition planning documents obtained by The Associated Press.
The documents, which are being closely scrutinized by energy lobbyists in Washington, also outline early policy priorities for a Trump administration. Topping the list is repealing the Clean Power Plan, an Obama administration effort to limit carbon pollution from coal-fired power plants. Implementation is currently on hold awaiting a court ruling.
Those under consideration for energy secretary include Harold Hamm, an Oklahoma oil tycoon and leading proponent of fracking, and North Dakota Rep. Kevin Cramer, an early Trump supporter from a major oil drilling state. Venture capitalist Robert Grady, who worked in President George H.W. Bush’s administration, is listed as a contender to lead both the Energy and Interior Departments.
It’s unclear whether the list is exhaustive or has been reviewed by Trump. The Republican is in the early stages of setting up his administration, having named only his White House chief of staff and chief strategist thus far.
The Trump to-do list targets recent Obama administration efforts to reduce air and water pollution that have been opposed by Republicans and industries that profit from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, including the “waters of the United States” rule and ozone regulations.
Trump calls climate change a “hoax” perpetrated by China and others and has said he will rescind the Clean Power Plan — the linchpin of President Barack Obama’s strategy to fight climate change.
A coalition of conservative states has challenged the Clean Power Plan and also has challenged an EPA rule that expanded the definition of waters protected under the Clean Water Act to smaller non-navigable waters and seasonal tributaries.
The Obama administration says the rule would safeguard drinking water for 117 million people, but Republicans and some Democrats representing rural areas say the regulations are costly, confusing and amount to a government power grab. Federal courts have put the rules on hold as judges review lawsuits.
On his campaign website, Trump called for rescinding “all job-destroying Obama executive actions” and has vowed to unleash an American energy revolution, allowing unfettered production of oil, coal and natural gas. He would sharply increase oil and gas drilling on federal lands and open up offshore drilling in the Atlantic Ocean and other areas where it is blocked.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said last week he has asked Trump to move quickly to approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada, which Obama rejected last year.
Trump highlighted the stalled Keystone project during a late October campaign swing through Florida, saying: “We’re going to approve energy infrastructure projects like the Keystone pipeline and many more.” He listed the project among his top priorities for the first 100 days of his administration, saying it could provide “a lot of jobs, a lot of good things.”
In addition to repealing the power plant rules, the transition document also says Trump’s energy team is considering modifications to Obama’s ozone rule, which is meant to reduce smog.
Also on the chopping block are Obama administration regulations intended to limit harmful emissions and chemical-laden waste water from hydraulic fracturing operations at oil and gas wells.

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Climate Change an Influence Behind Rare SA Storm and NSW Coastal Damage, Climate Council Says

ABC News - Malcolm Sutton

The Climate Council says September's mid-latitude cyclone was influenced by climate change. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)

Storms that knocked out electricity infrastructure in South Australia and brought coastal flooding to New South Wales were influenced by climate change and more could be expected in coming years, the Climate Council says.

A report released by the council said climate change was fuelling more intense and damaging storms in Australia and would have "powerful consequences" for critical infrastructure.

What was described by the Bureau of Meteorology as a mid-latitude cyclone hit SA during September and created tornadoes that knocked over more than 20 transmission towers and resulted in a state-wide blackout.
BOM also released a report today confirming at least seven tornadoes touched down on September 28, an outbreak caused by multiple supercell thunderstorms.
Winds of up to 260 kilometres per hour were recorded with sheds destroyed and a caravan overturned in the state's Mid North.
One tornado lasted for 25 minutes and travelled about 23 kilometres, while another lasted 20 minutes and travelled 30km.
Separately, an intense low pressure system that hit NSW in June resulted in the evacuation of parts of Sydney and tens of millions of dollars in damages.
The NSW storm surge of 17.7 metres was the highest on record, the council said, and was exacerbated by rising sea levels "as a result of climate change".
The Climate Council's Professor Will Steffen said the atmosphere was "packing more energy and carrying more moisture than it did in the 1950s".
"Our infrastructure is built for last century, not for a changed climate and a number of our major cities and towns are vulnerable," he said.

Beachside homes in Sydney were damaged by June's storm event. (Fairfax Media: Peter Rae)

Extreme rainfall events projected to increase in intensity
The report said extreme rainfall events were projected to increase in intensity across the continent, with the exception of south-west Western Australia where reduced rainfall was projected.
The annual frequency of severe thunderstorm days was expected to increase 14 per cent in Brisbane, 22 per cent in Melbourne, and 30 per cent in Sydney by 2100.
It said tropical cyclones were predicted to become less frequent but more intense, with stronger winds, higher rainfall and more severe storm surges.
The council warned that infrastructure and essential services needed to be designed for increasingly intense and severe weather caused by climate change.
It said seven storms since 2010 in Australia have resulted in insured losses of more than $500 million, with five them causing more than $1 billion in insured losses.
BOM meteorologist Matthew Bass said it was difficult to attribute single events, such as the storms in SA or NSW, to climate change.

"Those sorts of storms are not unheard of, but they're very, very rare," he said.

"For example, the surface air pressure in Adelaide was the lowest on record, but that's our historical record that goes back 100 years or so. It's probably likely that we have had similar lows, with recurring intervals of 150 years or so, that we just don't know about."
On the subject of extreme rainfall events, however, when the atmosphere is hotter due to climate change and holds more moisture as a result, it was easier to point to climate change.
"And when you're talking about a bushfire [for example], you can measure the excess heat in the atmosphere, and the excess dryness due to the heat," Mr Bass said.

Australia's worst storms of the past six years

Date	Location	Event	Insured losses
March 2010	Melbourne, Vic	Large hailstones hit the city of Melbourne, damaging schools, businesses and homes.	$1.04 billion
March 2010	Perth, WA	Winds of up to 120 kilometres per hour damage houses, schools and vehicles.	$1.05 billion
January 2011	Brisbane, Lockyear Valley, Ispwich, Qld	Extreme rainfall causes major flooding that inundates housing and destroys roads. Some 25 people are killed.	$2.4 billion
February 2011	Cardwell, Tully, Mission Beach, Innisfail, North Qld	Category 5 tropical cyclone Yasi hits, resulting in one death. Homes are destroyed and agriculture and mining infrastructure are damaged.	$1.4 billion
December 2011	North and eastern suburbs, Melbourne, Vic	Thunderstorm brings torrential rain, hailstones and tornadoes.	$729 million
November 2014	Brisbane, Qld	Strong hail storm hits the city along with winds of up to 140kph.	$1.39 billion
April 2015	Hunter Valley and NSW coast	More than 400mm of rain falls in 48 hours. Wind gusts of 135 kph hit, three deaths are caused and 370,000 properties experience a power outage.	$950 million
May 2015	South-east Qld	Some 183mm of rain falls in just 24 hours in Brisbane, its wettest day in May for 175 years. Houses are damaged and five deaths are caused.	$349 million
June 2016	East coast of NSW, southern Qld and Sydney	A record-high storm surge of 17.7 metres results in coastal erosion and the deaths of five people.	$235 million
September 2016	SA	Extreme rainfall and at least seven tornadoes result in a state-wide blackout affecting nearly 1.7 million people that lasts up to three days in some areas.	Undetermined

Compiled by the Climate Council

Large hail events more frequent in eastern states
A spring thunderstorm slammed parts of Adelaide and SA with golf ball-sized hailstones late last week.

Hail stones collected from Stepney in Adelaide's east on Friday. (ABC News: Simon Christie)

Thunderstorms later moved into Victoria's far north-west where strong winds and a small tornado caused extensive damage.

Mr Bass said such storms were common in the eastern states but less common in SA.
"We've found four instances in the last six years, of what we call large hail in the Riverland, which is greater than two centimetres," he said.
"If that goes right through your cropping area, or the middle of Adelaide as well, that's going to be pretty significant.

"If you're in Sydney or Brisbane, you'd be pretty used to seeing a couple of these every year, but in Adelaide, it's more like once every five years or 10."

The Climate Council said Australia needed to do more to reduce its carbon emissions and help "stabilise" the world's climate.
It said Australia's "very weak target" of a 26 to 28 per cent reduction in 2005 emission levels by 2030 was well behind the targets of other OECD countries and Australia was on track to miss its target anyway.

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