28/11/2016

Carmichael Mine Jumps Another Legal Hurdle, But Litigants Are Making Headway

The Conversation

Environmental activists rallied at Queensland’s state parliament in April. AAP Image/Nathan Paull

The Carmichael coal mine planned for Queensland’s Galilee Basin has cleared another legal hurdle, with the state’s Supreme Court dismissing a legal challenge to the validity of the Queensland government’s decision to approve the project.
The court found in favour of the Queensland Department of Environment and Heritage Protection, ruling that its approval of Indian firm Adani’s proposal was within the rules.
The decision is another setback for environmentalists’ bid to stop the controversial project. But Adani does not yet have a green light to break ground on the project, and legal questions still remain, both about this project and about climate change litigation more generally.

The Supreme Court ruling
It is important to note that this was a judicial review proceeding – a narrow type of review in which the court is not permitted to consider whether or not the decision to approve the mine was “correct”. The court could only rule on whether correct procedures were followed, while accepting that the decision was at the government’s discretion.
Within this already narrow context, the argument on which the legal challenge hinged was even more constrained. It was brought by an environmental campaign group called Land Services of Coast and Country (LSCC), and was focused on a particular point of Queensland environmental law.
Queensland’s Environmental Protection Act 1994 requires that decisions are made in accordance with the Act’s objective, which is to deliver “ecologically sustainable developent”. LSCC argued that the government failed to do this in approving the coalmine.
The Supreme Court disagreed, finding that the government had considered all matters that it were obliged to consider. So in this respect, the Supreme Court’s decision is an endorsement of the process, but not necessarily the ultimate decision.

Is this the final hurdle overcome for Adani?
In short, no. The decision can be referred to Queensland’s Court of Appeal. There is also ongoing litigation against Adani in the Federal Court of Australia under federal environmental and native title laws. There are also some approvals yet to be obtained by Adani, including a groundwater licence.

Is this ruling a rejection of climate change arguments against the coal mine?
No. This case dealt specifically with the question of whether the Queensland government had complied with a particular aspect of the law. The Supreme Court did not (and was not able to) address the potential climate change impacts of the proposed mine.
These climate issues were addressed more fully by Queensland’s Land Court in the case of Adani Mining Pty Ltd v Land Services of Coast and Country Inc & Ors (2015) QLC 48.
Importantly, the Land Court in this case accepted the scientific basis for climate change, and agreed that “scope 3 emissions” (that is, the emissions produced when the coal is burned overseas) are indeed a relevant consideration in whether or not to approve the mine.
However, Adani successfully used a “market substitution” defence, arguing that if the mine is refused, coal would simply be mined elsewhere and burned regardless.

What does this case say about climate change litigation more generally?
The latest judgement was handed down amid a series of fresh attacks on the rights of environmental groups to use Australia’s environmental laws to hold companies and governments to account. Federal Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has raised concerns about “activists … seeking to frustrate” projects with “vexatious litigation”, while Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has revived plans to amend federal environmental legislation so as to restrict standing to apply for judicial review – the so-called “lawfare” amendments.
In the wake of the new ruling, the head of the Queensland Resources Council has criticised the delays caused by litigation against mining projects.
This begs the question: is climate change litigation “vexatious”? A close analysis of Queensland court decisions would suggest the opposite. Climate change issues have been considered in a series of three key Queensland Land Court cases: Wandoan Mine in 2012, Alpha Coal Project in 2014, and the Carmichael Mine (Adani) in 2015.
The Alpha Coal matter has proceeded to the Supreme Court, the Court of Appeal, and leave has been sought to appeal to the High Court of Australia. Importantly, none of these cases has been dismissed as vexatious; each resulted in a lengthy judgement analysing the complex legal issues raised by the objector.
Furthermore, although objectors have not yet succeeded in stopping a mining project on the basis of climate concerns, they have nevertheless made modest strides. Most recently, President McMurdo of Queensland’s Court of Appeal found that the Land Court must consider scope 3 emissions in deciding whether a mine should be granted environmental approval. This represents significant progress, given that climate science was questioned by Queensland Courts less than ten years ago.
The only significant barrier remaining to a successful climate change case is the market substitution defence, which will be considered by the High Court if special leave is granted in the Alpha Coal matter.
Climate change litigation has also clarified other environmental and economic impacts. In the Carmichael Mine case, it was discovered that the mine site was a critical habitat for the endangered black-throated finch – evidence that was not previously available. The Land Court ordered strict conditions aimed at protecting this species. The litigation also served to clarify the significantly overstated economic benefits of the mine – particularly Adani’s estimate that it would generate more than 10,000 jobs. It was revealed in court that this figure was more likely to be 1,206 jobs in Queensland, as part of a total of 1,464 jobs in Australia.

Where to for climate change litigation?
Although the latest judgement is another setback for environmental groups, it is part of a bigger body of case law that is making real and discernible progress in ensuring that climate change is considered by decision-makers and courts.
Given that several courts have agreed on the validity of climate litigants’ arguments, it seems perverse for the federal government to try and restrict environmental groups’ right to continue raising these concerns.

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Captain Cook's Detailed 1778 Records Confirm Global Warming Today In The Arctic

Phys.org - Sandi Doughton, The Seattle Times

Mosaic of images of the Arctic by MODIS. Credit: NASA

Passengers simmered in Jacuzzis and feasted on gourmet cuisine this summer as the 850-foot cruise ship Crystal Serenity moved through the Northwest Passage.
But in the summer of 1778, when Capt. James Cook tried to find a Western entrance to the route, his men toiled on frost-slicked decks and complained about having to supplement dwindling rations with walrus meat.
The British expedition was halted north of the Bering Strait by "ice which was as compact as a wall and seemed to be 10 or 12 feet high at least," according to the captain's journal. Cook's ships followed the ice edge all the way to Siberia in their futile search for an opening, sometimes guided through fog by the braying of the unpalatable creatures the crew called Sea Horses.
More than two centuries later, scientists are mining meticulous records kept by Cook and his crew for a new perspective on the warming that has opened the Arctic in a way the 18th century explorer could never have imagined.
Working with maps and logs from Cook's voyage and other historical records and satellite imagery, University of Washington mathematician Harry Stern has tracked changes in  in the Chukchi Sea, between Alaska and Russia, over nearly 240 years.
The results, published this month in the journal Polar Geography, confirm the significant shrinkage of the summer ice cap and shed new light on the timing of the transformation. The analysis also extends the historical picture back nearly 75 years, building on previous work with ships' records from the 1850s.
"This old data helps us look at what conditions were like before we started , and what the natural variability was," said Jim Overland, a Seattle-based oceanographer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who was not involved in Stern's project.
Though earlier explorers ventured into the frigid waters off Alaska, Cook was the first to map the ice edge, Stern said. Cook undertook the voyage, which also covered the Northwest coast, on orders from King George III to seek a shorter trading route between Europe and the Far East across the top of the world.
Stymied by the ice, Cook headed for the winter to Hawaii, where he was killed by native people.
Stern's analysis found that for more than 200 years after Cook's visit the summer ice cover in the Chukchi Sea fluctuated, but generally extended south to near where Cook encountered it.
"Basically, from the time of Cook until the 1990s, you more or less could count on hitting the ice somewhere around 70 degrees north in August," Stern said. "Now the ice edge is hundreds of miles farther north."
That meshes with modern observations that confirm rapid shrinkage of the Arctic ice pack over the past three decades, Overland said. The total volume of ice in summer is now 60 to 70 percent lower than it was in the 1980s, while Arctic temperatures have increased at twice the rate of the rest of the planet as a result of rising greenhouse-gas levels.
"That's probably the largest indicator that global warming is a real phenomenon," Overland said.
With more melting in the summer and delayed freezing in the fall, the once-elusive Northwest Passage is now navigable for private yachts and vessels like the Crystal Serenity, which made the 7,300-mile trip from Alaska to New York in 32 days. The transformation has also triggered a rush to drill for oil in previously ice-choked watersm and an international power struggle over control of the route and resources.
The tensions are similar to those in Cook's day, Stern pointed out. Nations then were eager to find and claim a Northwest Passage, while whalers and fur traders scrambled to exploit the newly opened frontier.
But the data from Cook and other explorers show there were no similar warm periods in their times, said UW climatologist Kevin Wood. "It tells you that what's happening now is a fairly unique and extreme case."
Wood helps run a project called Old Weather, which relies on citizen scientists to transcribe and digitize old ship's logs. Since the effort began five years ago, thousands of volunteers have processed 1 million handwritten pages from whalers, fishing vessels and U.S. revenue cutters.
The data are being used to re-create past weather patterns and improve climate models.
Historical ice measurements are especially valuable, Wood said, because existing models don't seem to do a good job of forecasting ice cover.
While models predict the Arctic won't be ice-free in summer until 2050 or later, the current pace of change suggests it will happen much sooner.
Cook's ice observations are also of interest to historians.
David Nicandri, former director of the Washington State Historical Society, is finishing a book in which he argues that Cook - who is usually associated with Hawaii and Tahiti - was the original polar scientist.
Cook also explored southern polar waters, searching for a rumored continent. Though he never found Antarctica, the experience led Cook to question the conventional wisdom of the time that held that oceans couldn't freeze and that sea ice originated in rivers.
"Cook never fully got it right, but he realized there was too much ice to have flowed out of any set of rivers," said Nicandri, who was also co-editor of a series of essays entitled "Arctic Ambitions: Captain Cook and the Northwest Passage" where some of Stern's analysis was originally published.
Cook also described different types of sea ice and suggested that thick walls and ridges, like those he saw in the Arctic, must represent multiple years of accumulation.
"He's never given credit for his pioneering work in polar climatology," Nicandri said.

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'Remarkable Year': What's Behind The Record Low Sea Ice In Antarctica

Fairfax -

It was in early August this year when Phil Reid, a climatologist with the Bureau of Meteorology, first noticed something odd happening to the ice around Antarctica.
An area of ice had started to melt in the eastern Weddell Sea even though the region was still in darkness and air temperatures below freezing.

The state of our climate in 2016
Australia is already experiencing an increase in extreme conditions from climate change – and it's projected to get worse.

Confirmed later as a rare sighting of the Weddell polynya – as such melts are known – abnormal sea ice activity began showing up in other regions off the southern continent.
Having set records for area covered by sea ice just over two years ago, the ice has rapidly retreated since late August to set new marks for record-low coverage for this time of year.
"It's been a pretty remarkable year," Dr Reid said, adding sea ice now totalled about 12.8 million square kilometres, or more than 2 million below average for November. (See chart, with the red line showing the departure from the 1979-2015 norm.)
  This year will certainly go down as a stunning one for polar ice. In the Arctic, sea ice growth in the lead-up to winter stalled at record low levels in November amid temperatures 20 degrees above normal that  some commentators described as "insane" and a clarion call of global warming.
With less ice to reflect the sun's radiation to space, more heat is absorbed by the oceans, added to the warming.

Polynya a
ppears
But in Antarctica, the relative lack of instruments and complexity added by the continent mean it could be a while before scientists get a clear view of why sea ice extent bounced from record highs to lows so rapidly.
The Weddell polynya indicates there were unusually warm waters beneath, but researchers won't know for sure until they can retrieve and analyse data from floats, Dr Reid said.
Some extreme weather, which also brought in warmer air from the north, may have helped corral the thinning ice into smaller areas. "That atmospheric pattern exacerbated the regions of lower-than-normal sea ice," he said.
Sea ice off West Antarctica, as viewed from NASA Operation IceBridge. Photo: Mario Tama, Getty Images
Mark Brandon, a polar oceanographer and blogger at the UK's Open University, said the ice was noticeably compacting in three areas – the Ross Sea, the Cosmonauts Sea, and in the Bellingshausen and Weddell seas.
(See tweet map of ice for August 5, 2016 below. Blue shades imply an increased sea ice extent compared with a five-year mean for 1989-93, with reds implying a decreased sea ice extent.)
IMAGE
Dr  Brandon said that the increased mobility of the ice implies there is less of it, so volume has probably dropped too.
"We have no long-term wide geographical ranging measurements of sea ice thickness in the Antarctic that are comparable to what we have in the Arctic," he said. "For various technical reasons we don't have [satellite data] – yet – either.
"But with the evidence in the Weddell Sea I would be surprised if the volume is constant given the pack is not being compressed against the coast," he said.
Dr Brandon also posted this animation on Twitter showing the sea ice changes over time:
Ice loss spread around
For John Turner, variability climatologist at the British Antarctic Survey, the sea ice anomalies as of November 22 were spread around most of the continent, and so are not merely the result of compaction. (See chart below of the region compared with the average over 2005-15.)



A gauge of the relative strength of the westerly winds that circumnavigate Antarctic – known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – had also turned negative in November.
That means higher-than-usual pressure over the continent and lower pressure at mid-latitudes, a set-up conducive to a hot, dry start to summer, the bureau said this week.
"It's well known that a negative SAM is associated with less sea ice, so it seems likely that this has played a part in the decrease of ice during November," Dr Turner said.
The bureau's Dr Reid said the big El Nino in the Pacific – rated third strongest during the satellite era – was also a factor in making sea ice behaviour down south a more complicated tale than at the North Pole.
"The recent decrease of sea ice is well documented as associated with climate change but there's more uncertainty about the role [of global warming] in the Antarctic," he said.

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