Taxpayers could be slugged for $12b-$25b if the Emissions Reduction Fund remains the Government's principal policy tool for reaching its inadequate 2030 target of 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Removing policy options from the 2017 review is a costly mistake.
According to government data out today, Australia’s emissions have
increased by over four million tonnes in the year to June 2016 and are
projected to keep rising to 2030. Without stronger energy and climate
policies, government’s own inadequate 2030 target will be blown by
around a billion tonnes, said The Climate Institute.
“With the government ruling out a policy option that would make
companies take responsibility for their own emissions, this billion
tonne gap could see taxpayers slugged for $12 to 55 billion if the
Emissions Reduction Fund remains the government’s principal policy
tool,” said the CEO of The Climate Institute, John Connor.
“These results are a national embarrassment, so it’s not surprising that
the government has released this data as close as possible to
Christmas. Despite having committed through the Paris Agreement to
reduce our emissions to net zero, our emissions are still going up, not
down – and it is because we don’t have effective policies to reduce
them.”
“Though the government has committed to reducing emissions by 26-28 per
cent below 2005 levels by 2030, the projections show Australia is
currently on track to blow that target by about 1 billion tonnes. If we
were serious about our Paris commitments we should be 65 per cent below
2005 levels by 2030.
The latest emissions inventory shows that emissions from electricity,
transport, and industrial processes all went up. This reflects the
absence of effective policy to decarbonise these sectors.
“The latest projections show that, in the absence of policy changes,
national emissions are expected to continue rising over time,” he said.
“The federal Renewable Energy Target is projected to help decrease
electricity emissions till it stops growing in 2020. Without extra
policies electricity emissions are predicted to rise again thereafter.”
The government is to review its climate policy framework next year, but
has already withdrawn one widely recommended option, an emission
intensity trading scheme.
“Given the proven ineffectiveness of the government’s existing climate
policy framework, removing anything from the table before the review has
even commenced is a very costly mistake,” Mr Connor said.
“With 80 per cent of the $2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund already used up, it will clearly need more of taxpayers’ money.”
If the Emissions Reduction Fund were to carry the billion tonne gap,
this would cost at best $12 billion (based on the average price per
tonne in the ERF’s last four auctions) but potentially $55 billion
(based on the IPCC’s estimate of a global carbon price consistent with
the government’s target).
This data released in the shadow of Christmas makes clear that the
Government needs to get serious on energy and climate policy reform.
There are far cheaper options than just relying on the taxpayer, and the
2017 review should be able to examine them all, said Connor. Links
Official data quietly released before Christmas shows emissions rose
0.8% in the year to June and will miss 2030 goal based on current
policies
A gas plant in Mount Isa, Queensland. Greenhouse gas emissions have again risen in Australia, according to official figures.
Photograph: Auscape/Getty Images/Universal Images Group
Australia’s emissions are rising and projected to keep doing so to
2030, meaning the country will fail to meet its 2030 emissions targets,
according to government figures.
The official quarterly figures, showing growth in year-on-year
emisssions, confirms independent projections from Ndevr Environmental,released earlier this month by Guardian Australia, which predicted Australia’s emissions would be rising.
The government figures also confirm emissions are predicted to rise
to 2030. Emissions that year are projected to be 10% higher than the
year to June 2016.
By 2030, the report estimates Australia will have emitted 1bn tonnes
more than it is allowed to, according to its 2030 commitments.
The figures were released on Thursday, just days before Christmas,
despite the results being finalised in September, according to documents
released on Wednesday night to the Australian Conservation Foundation
under freedom of information laws.
The report from the Department of Environment and Energy clearly
indicated that current policies would not allow Australia to meet its
2030 emissions targets.
“These results reflect the fact that the government’s policies are
primarily geared towards the 2020 target at this stage,” the report
said. Australia’s 2020 targets allow its total emissions to rise.
The report notes the projections do not take account of policies that
might emerge from the government’s 2017 review of climate policy – a
review the government has now said will not include discussion of any form of carbon price, including an emissions intensity scheme.The Climate Institute’s chief executive, John Connor, said if the
government continued with its current policy of paying polluters to
lower emissions it would cost the taxpayer dearly.
“With the government ruling out a policy option that would make
companies take responsibility for their own emissions, this
billion-tonne gap could see taxpayers slugged for $12bn to $55bn if the
Emissions Reduction Fund remains the government’s principal policy
tool,” Connor said.
“These results are a national embarrassment, so it’s not surprising
that the government has released this data as close as possible to
Christmas. Despite having committed through the Paris agreement to
reduce our emissions to net zero, our emissions are still going up, not
down – and it is because we don’t have effective policies to reduce
them,” Connor said.
The report already assumes 2,000 megawatts of coal power will be
retired after 2020 and a doubling of electricity generated from rooftop
solar between 2020 and 2030.
The figures are an improvement over projections made in 2015, when
the government expected 2030 emissions to be almost double what it now
expects them to be.
The report said the change in the projected emissions is a result of
Hazelwood –Australia’s dirtiest coal power station – closing; projected
increases in energy efficiency; lower emissions from land clearing; and
changes in the way emissions are counted.
“This is an improvement of 187% since we last updated our emissions projections,” said Josh Frydenberg, the minister for the environment and energy.
Australian Conservation Foundation economist Matthew Rose said:
“Transition for the electricity sector is a crucial environment and
economic reform that today’s data shows is being neglected. It is also
disappointing the government has decided to release such critical data
so close to Christmas in what one can only assume is a tactic to avoid
scrutiny.”
The pre-Christmas release of two quarters worth of data, plus
emissions projections, mirrors the government’s actions last year, when it released data on Christmas Eve showing emissions were rising.
Documents released to the Australian Conservation Foundation show a
final version of the March quarterly results was circulated as long ago
as September.
On 10 September 2016, an email from a senior Department of
Environment and Energy bureaucrat to a recipient whose name was
redacted, said: “Attached is the department’s final version of the
quarterly update. I will give you a call on Monday to discuss.”
Another email between bureaucrats in the department, dated 3 November
said: “I am just following up last night’s email on the quarterly
update and to note that we are expecting some agitation on the delay in
the release to the quarterly update soon.”
It is unclear from the correspondence if any significant revisions were made between September and Thursday’s release.
According to the new figures, Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions
rose 0.8% in the year to June 2016. And in the year to March 2016,
emissions were up 1.3%.
The results are even worse than those predicted by Ndevr
Environmental, which earlier projected emissions would be up by 0.4% in
the year to June 2016. But comparisons have been made difficult since
the government changed its methodology in the most recent figures.
The Labor spokesperson for climate change and energy, Mark Butler, said: “These results under Malcolm Turnbull are worse than anything Australia experienced under the known climate sceptic Tony Abbott.”
“The rise is startling, even more than projected by independent analysis,” Butler said.
The Greens climate change and energy spokesman, Adam Bandt, said:
“Malcolm Turnbull once said ‘we must make a dramatic reduction in the
world’s greenhouse gas emissions’, yet Australia’s greenhouse gas
emissions are actually rising under his leadership.
“Malcolm Turnbull is now the king of pollution.”
In a statement, Frydenberg chose to focus on the government’s 2020
target, which will be met using “carry over” from Australia beating it’s
Kyoto protocol target.
The Kyoto target allowed for Australia to continue increasing
emissions. But Australia beat that target by increasing emissions by
less than it was allowed to. The amount that it beat that target by was allowed to be “carried over” and
counted as abatement towards its 2020 target. That again allowed
Australia to potentially meet its 2020 target without actually reducing
emissions.
“Official figures show Australia beat its first Kyoto protocol
emissions target and is now on target to beat its 2020 emissions
reduction target by 224m tonnes,” Frydenberg said. “This is an
improvement of 187% since we last updated our emissions projections.”
Frydenberg also took aim at Labor’s carbon tax. “Our policies like
the Emissions Reduction Fund are working to reduce Australia’s emissions
at low cost, without driving up the price of electricity like Labor’s
carbon tax did,” he said.
“What this shows is that the government’s policies are working to
reduce emissions without lobbing a $15.4bn carbon tax on households and
businesses.”
The government has confirmed Australia's greenhouse gas emissions are
rising, and projected that it will not get near its 2030 climate target
under current policies.
But the country remains on track to "meet
and beat" the less ambitious 2020 target of a 5 per cent cut in
emissions compared to 2000 levels.
2017 weather outlook The Bureau of Meteorology release their climate and water outlook for the first quarter of 2017.
Released in the shadow of the Christmas holidays, the Environment Department greenhouse accounts show national emissions rose 0.8 per cent in the year to June. Here are the changes in emissions for the June quarter over the past decade:
The department analysis shows the increase largely came from
electricity generation - the country used more power without much change
in its reliance on fossil fuels - and new liquefied natural gas
projects.
In per capita terms, emissions per person continued to
fall - to less than 23 tonnes of carbon dioxide, down from about 26
tonnes a decade ago - as population growth outpaced the rise in
pollution.
In terms of future emissions, the government continues to revise down projections.
While they remain well above the 2030 target (a 26-28 per cent cut
compared with 2005 levels), the gap has closed significantly in the past
year.
Despite this, all parts of the economy are expected to have
higher emissions in 2030 than in 2020. It is expected Australians will
be using more electricity, more polluting transport and running larger
agricultural herds to meet overseas demand.
Steam rises from the Loy Yang coal power station in Victoria. Photo: Carla Gottgens
National emissions in 2030 are projected to be 592 million tonnes - see
the blue line below. Last year, they were projected to be 724 million
tonnes (the red line below). But to meet the target they will need to be
less than 450 million tonnes (the dotted lines below).
Illustration: Ron Tandberg
Australian Conservation Foundation economist Matt Rose said the
government was failing to cut climate pollution, and was holding back
evidence of its poor performance from the public.
Documents
released to the foundation after a Freedom of Information request showed
it had been sitting on the data since September, but chose to release
it just three days before Christmas.
"If the Government is so embarrassed by the results it should improve its policies," he said.
But
Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg said Australia was on
target to beat its 2020 target and had made significant process in
reaching the 2030 target.
He said Australia's per capita emissions and emissions per unit of GDP were at their lowest level in 27 years.
"Our
policies, like the emissions reduction fund, are working to reduce
Australia's emissions at low cost, without driving up the price of
electricity like Labor's carbon tax did," he said.
Labor climate
spokesman Mark Butler said the greenhouse results under Malcolm Turnbull
were worse than those under "known climate sceptic" Tony Abbott.
The
report notes that emissions projections are inherently uncertain, and
the uncertainty becomes greater the further you go into the future.
Australia's emissions projections have become lower year on year, often
due to businesses and households outstripping Canberra in embracing
cleaner practice.
They are certain to change again. Current
projections do not factor in policies that are yet to be fully
introduced but have been flagged, including a national energy
productivity plan to improve efficiency, a program to cut emissions from
cars and state renewable energy targets.
The government is
reviewing climate policies next year, but has already ruled out any form
of carbon pricing that would penalise big emitters.
Business and
environment groups are urging the government to keep all options,
including a form of carbon pricing known as an emission intensity
scheme, open to ensure cuts are made as cheaply as possible.
