02/01/2017

These Are The 10 Most Important Climate Stories Of 2016

Climate Central

This year is likely to remembered as a turning point for climate change. It's the year the impacts of rising carbon pollution became impossible to ignore. The world is overheating and vast swaths of the planet have suffered the consequences. At the same time, it's also a year where world leaders crafted and agreed on a number of plans to try to turn the tide of carbon pollution and move toward a clean energy future. It's clear 2016 was a year where planetary peril and human hope stood out in stark contrast. Here are the 10 most important climate milestones of the year.

The world struck an airline carbon pollution deal
The friendly skies got slightly friendlier. Air travel counts for about 7 percent of carbon emissions globally. That number will need to come down in the coming decades, and the International Civil Aviation Organization, the world's governing body for airlines, put a plan in place to start that transition. The plan, which was signed off on by 191 countries, is focused on letting airlines buy credits that will help fund renewable energy projects to offset airplane emissions. It isn't a perfect solution since it doesn't directly reduce carbon pollution from air travel, but it's a first step for an industry that will have to find novel, carbon-free ways to produce the fuel needed to fly you home for Christmas vacation.

An extremely potent greenhouse gas is also on its way out
Hydrofluorocarbons are the chemicals in your air conditioner that help keep you cool in the summer (and the food in your refrigerator cool year round). Ironically, they're also a greenhouse gas that's thousands of times more potent than carbon dioxide when it comes to trapping heat in the atmosphere. Reducing them is critical to keep the planet from heating up much more and in October, international negotiators struck a deal to do phase them out. Countries still have to ratify the agreement — and it could face a major roadblock in the U.S. Senate — in order for it to take effect, but if approved, it will provide strong targets and a timetable to find replacement chemicals to keep you cool in a warming world.

July was the hottest month ever recorded. Then August tied it
The Arctic had a crazy heat wave this winter, but the planet as a whole really roasted through July and August. The summer is usually the warmest time of the year by dint of the fact that there's more land in the northern hemisphere. But this summer was something else. July was the hottest month ever recorded, and it was followed by an August — usually a bit cooler than July — that was just as scorching. Those epically hot months helped set this year up for record heat (but more on that in a bit).

Arctic sea ice got weird. Really weird
The Arctic was probably the weirdest place on the planet this year. It had a record-low peak for sea ice in the winter and dwindled to its second-lowest extent on record. The Northwest Passage also opened in August, allowing a luxury cruise ship to pass through. Those milestones themselves are a disconcerting harbinger of a warming world, but November brought an even more bizarre event. Normally it's a time when night blankets the region and temperatures generally plummet to allow the rapid growth of ice. But a veritable heat wave ratcheted temperatures 27°F above normal, hitting pause on ice growth and even causing ice loss for a few days. December has seen a similar warm spell that scientists have found would be virtually impossible if it wasn't for climate change. The Arctic is the most rapidly warming region on the planet and 2016 served as a reminder that the region is being dramatically reshaped by that warming.

Divestment and clean energy investments each hit a record
Climate change is a huge, pressing economic issue as countries will have to rejigger their economies to run on renewables and not fossil fuels. Investors are attacking that switch at both ends, and 2016 stands out for the record pace at which they're doing it. On the fossil fuel side, investors representing $5.2 trillion in assets have agreed to divest from fossil fuels. That includes massive financial firms, pension funds, cities and regional governments, and a host of wealthy individuals. Not bad for a movement that only got its start in 2011. On the flip side, a report showed that investors poured $288 billion into new renewable projects in 2015, also a record. That's helping install 500,000 solar panels a day around the world and ensuring that 70 percent of all money invested into energy generation is going to renewables.

The Great Barrier Reef was decimated by warm waters
Coral has had a rough go of it around the world for the past three years. El Niño coupled with climate change has caused a massive coral bleaching event around the globe. Nowhere have the impacts been more stark than the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. Up to 93 percent of the reef was rocked by coral bleaching as record-warm waters essentially boiled coral to death. A third of the reef — including some of the most protected areas — are now dead. Researchers found that climate change made the record heat up to 175 times more likely, offering a glimpse into the dystopian future reefs face. A 1.5°C rise in the global average temperature would essentially mean game over for corals around the world.

The world breached the 1.5°C climate threshold
So about 1.5°C. It's a threshold that's crucial for low-lying island states to continue their existence (to say nothing of Miami or other coastal cities). Passing it would mean essentially issuing a death sentence for these places, corals and Arctic sea ice and other places around the world. The globe got its first glimpse of 1.5°C in February and March this year. Climate change, riding on the back of a super El Niño, helped crank the global average temperature to 1.63°C above normal in February and 1.54°C above normal in March compared to pre-industrial times. While the abnormal heat has since subsided a bit, it's likely that 1.5°C will be breached again and again in the coming years and could become normal by 2025-30.

Carbon dioxide hit 400 ppm. Permanently
Scientists measure carbon dioxide in parts per million and in 2016, and it hit a not-so-nice round number at the Earth's marquee carbon observatory: 400 ppm. Despite the seasonal ebb and flow, there wasn't a single week where carbon dioxide levels dipped below 400 ppm. It's the first time on record that's happened. Because carbon pollution continues to rise, the world isn't going to see carbon dioxide dip below 400 ppm again in our lifetimes (and likely a lot longer than that). Carbon dioxide also breached the 400 ppm threshold in Antarctica, the first time that's happened in human history (and likely a lot longer). And in a report that was published this year, the World Meteorological Organization revealed that carbon dioxide passed the 400 ppm milestone globally in 2015. So yeah, 400 ppm was kind of a thing this year.

The Paris Agreement got real
The world got together to deliver the Paris Agreement in 2015, but the rubber really hit the road in 2016. Nearly 120 countries have ratified the agreement, putting it into force on Nov. 4. That includes big carbon pollution emitters like China, the U.S. and the European Union, and tiny ones like Mongolia, the Cook Islands and Sierra Leone. While there's concern that President-elect Trump could pull the U.S. out of the agreement, signatories have stressed that they'll go forward to meet their pledges regardless. With the rubber on the road, the next step is to get the wheels spinning.

It was the hottest year on record. Again
In case it wasn't clear, the clearest sign of climate change is heat. And this year had lots of it. Hot Arctic, hot summer, hot water, and so it's only fitting that the biggest climate milestone of the year (in a year that itself is a milestone) is record heat. Of course, that was the biggest story in 2014. And 2015 for that matter. This year marks the third year in a row of record-setting heat, an unprecedented run. It's a reminder that we've entered a new era, where our actions have changed the world we call home. We also have the ability to decide what comes next.

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5 Ways Climate Change Is A Women’s Rights Issue

International Women's Development Agency

Climate change is not gender neutral. If you’re a woman, you’re more likely to feel the negative consequences of natural disasters and, left unchecked, climate change only stands to make gender inequalities worse.
Women during the Myanmar floods. Photo: Myo Thame/UNICEF
1. Collecting drinking water becomes harder, and violence becomes more common
In 63% of rural households worldwide, it’s a woman’s job to gather drinking water for their families. Climate change means more droughts and flooding, so finding access to clean water has become harder than ever. This puts added pressure on women and girls, with many having to travel longer and farther to access clean water. By travelling further from home and into the night, women are also more likely to be sexually assaulted by men.
Cambodian woman collecting water. Photo: Eric Sales/ADB
2. Women’s health is in danger
In times of disaster, illnesses such as malaria and cholera can spread quickly, and water contamination is a serious concern. For women who are pregnant or giving birth in such unhygienic conditions, the risk to a mother and her baby is huge. And in the event her family gets sick, it is almost always the woman who is in charge of caring for them. This means she is unable to work, which further weakens her financial independence and deepens the cycle of poverty.
A women receives a dignity kit and a health check-up in Ayeyawady Region of Myanmar. Photo: Benny Manser/UNFPA
3. Women farmers lose their income           
In some places, women do up to 80% of the farming work, with agriculture often being one of the few income sources available to women. This means that in the event of natural disasters, women face not only water shortages and loss of land to farm, but a loss of the income they rely on to survive.
A farmer from the Palaung hill tribe in Myanmar. Photo: Jean Qingwen Loo/UN Women
4. Violence against women increases during natural disaster
During natural disasters, men are more likely to perpetrate violence against women.  This is particularly true for women or girls displaced or living in temporary accommodation, where there is a far greater risk of rape and physical violence. Worse still, with police and medical services overwhelmed during times of disaster, women may have nowhere to go to seek support.
Women walk among the destroyed homes in the wake of Cyclone Winston in Fiji. Photo: Lyndon Mechielsen/The Australian
5. It’s even harder for single or lgbtqi women to access emergency services
If women are already discriminated against in their communities, access to emergency services during natural disasters can be incredibly difficult. During the recent Cyclone Winston in Fiji, women of diverse sexual identities were choosing to stay in homes that were hazardous and remote – because they felt the evacuation centres were unsafe and unwelcoming for them. Those with healthcare issues were unable to reach doctors, and for poor households food, water and housing security immediately dropped.
The devastation left by Cyclone Winston. Photo: FWRM
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Cabinet Papers 1992-93: Australia Reluctant While World Moves Towards First Climate Treaty

The Conversation

Despite international efforts, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to grow. Coal image from www.shutterstock.com

Cabinet papers from 1992 and 1993
released today by the National Archives of Australia confirm that Australia was a reluctant player in international discussions about climate change and environmental issues under Prime Minister Paul Keating.
Internationally, it was an exciting time for the environment. In June 1992, the UN Earth Summit was held in Rio de Janeiro. Here the world negotiated the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (which last year gave us the Paris Agreement) and opened the Convention on Biological Diversity for signing.
So what was Australia doing?

Australia stumbles towards climate policy
Domestically, the focus was on Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD), a policy process begun by Prime Minister Bob Hawke. Working groups made up of corporate representatives, environmentalists and bureaucrats had beavered away and produced hundreds of recommendations.
By the final report in December 1991, the most radical recommendations (gasp – a price on carbon!) had been weeded out. Democrats Senator John Coulter warned of bureaucratic hostility to the final recommendations. Keating replaced Hawke in the same month.
The August 1992 meeting, where the ESD policies were meant to be agreed upon, was so disastrous that the environmentalists walked out and even the corporates felt aggrieved.
Two interim reports on the ESD process from the cabinet papers fill in some of the detail.
The first interim report, in March 1992, said that government departments had not been able to identify which recommendations to take on board. Cabinet moved the process on, but the only policies on the table were those that involved:
…little or no additional cost, cause minimal disruption to industry or the community, and which also offer benefits other than greenhouse related.
By May, federal ministers were told that the states and territories weren't committed to either ESD or greenhouse gas policies.
The policy process rumbled on after the walkout, finally producing a National Strategy for Ecologically Sustainable Development and a National Greenhouse Response Strategy. The greenhouse strategy contained only – surprise! – toothless voluntary measures, which proved ineffective in keeping emissions down to 1990 levels.
The November 1992 minutes mildly note that:
Most major interest groups have voiced concerns about their lack of involvement in the drafting of the NGRS [greenhouse strategy] document. Officials made provision for community input through the public comment process and a public consultative forum held in August [the one the environmentalists walked out of]. Reaction from conservation groups is likely to be negative, given the limited changes made to many of the responses in the revised strategy. They are likely to want to see more concerted efforts in areas such as fuel efficiency and renewable energy sources.
Indeed.
With equal prescience, the document warns:
Coal producers and resource-intensive industries (eg. aluminium) may express concern about their prospects in the medium to long term.
There are not many surprises here. The dithering over climate and environmental policies has been well covered by Clive Hamilton, David Cox, Joan Staples and numerous academic papers (see here, here, here, and here).
And while we won't know officially who said what for another 30 years, there are tantalising hints in Neal Blewett's A Cabinet Diary. Published in 1999, it reveals the antagonism between the environment minister and others in the Keating cabinet.

The international stage
International climate policy was dominated by the US threat, under President George Bush senior, not to attend the Earth Summit if the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) included specific emission-reduction targets. The US attended, and the UNFCCC didn't include targets.
In Australia, the cabinet papers point out, not for the first or last time, that:
Australia is the only developed megadiverse country; it is a major user and exporter of greenhouse gas producing fossil fuels and energy intensive products; it could be significantly affected by global environmental change.
In May 1992 cabinet endorsed in principle support for the UNFCCC. There are three ironies here.
First, it was a major concern that the media statement to accompany Environment Minister Ros Kelly's signing should be amended to include the fact that:
The Convention does not bind any signatory to meet any greenhouse gas target by a specified date.
Second, the minutes note that:
A decision by Australia not to sign the Convention would be criticised by domestic environment interests and could also attract international criticism, particularly in the Pacific region.
In later years, Prime Minister John Howard would not worry about this when repeatedly nixing ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.
Third, an emphasis on assisting developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region with climate adaptation looks odd given there had been zero mention of greenhouse gases in a March 1992 discussion document of aid to Cambodia (that country is feeling the effects already).
Keating's willingness to let Kelly sign the convention may have been related to the following:
The Convention contains several safeguards which protect Australia's interests … [A]llowance is made for "the differences in Parties' starting points and approaches, economic structures and resource bases, and the need to maintain strong and sustainable economic growth, available technologies and other individual circumstances". Additionally, Parties are obliged to take into consideration the situation of Parties with economies that are highly dependent on the production, processing, export and use of fossil fuels. These two provisions will give relevant countries, including Australia, flexibility in fulfilling their obligations under the Convention.
And they probably thought they had more time than they actually did. The May 1992 note argues:
[The UNFCCC] is likely to take some years to obtain the necessary ratifications to bring it into force.
It took two. Australia ratified the treaty in December 1992, but not before noting that the UNFCCC would worry industry for being too strong, and environmental groups for being too weak. So no changes there.

What happened next
At least when it comes to climate policy, there are no real secrets worthy of the name. We have always known that the Australian state quickly retreated from its already hedged promise to take action, and told us all along that this was because we had a lot of coal.
While Australia's international credibility has flatlined (with a brief bump from 2007 to 2009), two other things have soared over the last 25 years: Australia's coal exports, and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. Both look set to continue their upward trend.
Reading the documents, it is striking how concerned the cabinet was to minimise its financial commitments (unsurprising, perhaps, given the overall state of the economy at the time), and just how unimportant the climate issue was to leaders who ask us to trust them on the long-term future of the country. It seems it was a distant abstraction that many didn't really think was real. How times have changed.

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