25/01/2017

Climate Change Driving More Risks Than Ever Before

Insurance BusinessJordan Lynn

The impact of climate change is being felt in more ways than ever, according to one industry expert.
Geoffrey Au, APAC chief risk officer for Zurich, said Asia Pacific is among the most vulnerable regions to the effects of climate change.
"Climate change is exacerbating more risks than ever before in terms of water crises, food shortages, constrained economic growth, weaker societal cohesion and increased security risks," Au told Insurance Business.
"The social and economic development in the region has resulted in a rapid transition to more urban living, meaning its cities are more densely populated and the impact of natural catastrophes is amplified."
Climate change was listed as the number two underlying risk in the recently released Global Risks Report 2017, released by the World Economic Forum in association with Marsh and Zurich.
The report also found that, for the first time, all five environmental risks were ranked both high-risk and high-likelihood as extreme weather events were named the single most prominent risk facing the world.
Australia particularly remains on the front line of climate risk. With temperatures hitting record highs across the country in January, the impact climate risk can have remains front and centre for businesses and the public at large.
Au noted that while much has been done in terms of climate risk, a quicker response is still needed.
"2016 did see some progress to address climate and other environmental risks, reflecting firm international resolve on the transition to a low-carbon global economy and on building resilience to climate change.
"However, the pace of change is frankly not fast enough in Asia Pacific or anywhere else."
Au stressed that the role of the insurance industry is inextricably linked to climate risk. Global insurers can advocate for closer cooperation to develop responses to the challenges that arise in the future.

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China Eyes An Opportunity To Take Ownership Of Climate Change Fight

The Guardian - Li Shuo*

The economic and environmental cost of pollution will drive Beijing’s policies regardless of what Donald Trump does
Smog in Liaocheng in eastern China. Reducing carbon emissions is a priority for Beijing’s leadership, which could influence the global battle against climate change. Photograph: Sipa Asia/REX/Shutterstock
Twenty years ago, climate change was believed by many in Beijing to be a conspiracy cooked up by the western world to contain China’s development.
Since then, China has performed an about-turn, not only recognising climate change as a major global challenge but also, ahead of Davos this week, vowing to lead the world’s effort in combating it.
The election of Donald Trump, who, labelling climate change a “hoax” created by China, has reversed the conspiracy, casts a dark shadow on the prospect of future international climate cooperation. But for China, now could be a moment of opportunity.
Since the catastrophic Copenhagen failure in 2009, China has anchored climate actions at the core of its political agenda. There are three main reasons for this, and over the next four years, they will be the drivers that will propel China’s climate action forward regardless of the political situation in the US.
First, the calculus of cost and benefit has shifted.
For a long time, environmental protection was positioned on the opposite side of economic prosperity – the pursuit of one could only sacrifice the other. In China, this binary has fallen apart, as the enormous health impacts of air pollution have galvanised both political and public opinion against polluting industry, and as the booming clean energy industry shows the possibility to make both environmentally and economically sound investments.
Second, China feels an increased – and increasing – sense of global responsibility, as displayed in phrase after phrase of Xi Jinping’s speeches in Davos and Geneva this week. Beijing was quick to learn from its mistakes in Copenhagen. In the run up to the Paris conference, it managed to forge consensus on the most difficult political questions with other key players ahead of time.
Many of these political breakthroughs, such as on common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) and the issue of transparency, will require China to move beyond its previous positions and take more ambitious action. In addition, China has started to implement its own south-south cooperation scheme, aimed at helping other developing countries to pursue climate action. China is slowly but surely re-defining its international responsibilities and shifting to a more active and cooperation oriented climate diplomacy.
Third, China’s leaders have started to take ownership of combating climate change.
This new dynamic could bear promising prospects over the next few years. US-China cooperation on climate in the Obama era helped to elevate climate change to the very top of the Chinese leadership’s agenda. This has ensured the unprecedented direct engagement of the Chinese leaders for multiple years, and not only familiarised them with the technicality and politics of climate change, but also allowed them to see the strategic value it can generate.
With Xi soon entering his second five-year tenure, he might well take a leaf out of the outgoing US president’s book and try to secure climate action as one of his political legacies. This could mean further investment in and greater leadership on climate action.
These three reasons, coupled with the fundamental trend of China’s economic transition and the associated coal consumption decline, present a real opportunity for China to project further international leadership on climate change.
What China urgently needs now is a comprehensive strategy that sets climate change as a diplomatic priority. For the past years, China’s policy circle primarily considered climate change through the lens of managing US-China relations and as an issue subordinate to the most important bilateral relationship in the world.
As the political winds shift in Washington, climate change now deserves an independent strategy that takes into account but is not dependent on the US-China relationship. Chinese leaders should be confident in such an approach and not underestimate the country’s potential for global leadership. The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the One Belt, One Road initiative both demonstrate that, when the issue is given political priority, China is not only able to participate in international diplomacy, but can also actively lead.
None of these is to say China should step in for the US. Climate change is a crisis larger than any single country. And it is neither feasible nor fair to expect other countries to fill the hole left by the US. But for China, if what it takes to move from a climate villain to a reluctant leader is the short five years of the first half of this decade, it is not completely unreasonable to expect the country to become a true leader by the end of this decade.
As Trump drops Obama’s legacy, Xi might well establish one of his own.

*Li Shuo is Greenpeace’s east Asia senior climate policy adviser based in Beijing.

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Mayors To Trump: ‘Don’t Get In Our Way’

Think Progress

As Trump takes office, leaders of the country's biggest cities are preparing to continue the climate fight.
The Los Angeles city skyline. CREDIT: AP Photo/Nick Ut
On the eve of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti had a message for an incoming administration with notoriously backwards views on climate policy.
"Don't get in our way," he told a small group of reporters at the United States Conference of Mayors' winter meeting.
There are projects, Garcetti continued, where federal support would certainly be looked upon favorably — helping Los Angeles reduce its dependence on imported water, for instance, or transition its public transportation fleet from natural gas to electricity. But in the absence of a strong federal ally, the best case scenario for cities under Trump would be the autonomy to carry out their climate policies unencumbered.
"We'd love a federal partner that can help accelerate this, but at the very least, just don't get in our way," Garcetti reiterated.
The age of Trump ushers in an unsettling future for American climate policy: as a candidate, Trump promised to unleash fossil fuel extraction on federal lands and along the nation's coasts, roll back environmental regulations, and withdraw from the international leadership role the previous administration worked so hard to build.
As president-elect, his decisions have been equally antagonistic towards climate action — he and his transition team have named climate deniers to every major environmental cabinet position, sought information on career employees that worked on Obama-era climate policies, and pledged to cut entire programs from the Department of Energy.
Meanwhile, the consequences of human-caused climate change are becoming increasingly clear and increasingly dire. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just officially named 2016 the hottest on record, breaking previous records set in 2015 and 2014. Extreme weather events are becoming more common — and climate change definitively played a role in dozens of floods, heat waves, and droughts throughout 2016.
As city leaders, mayors are familiar with both the consequences and the causes of climate change. Population density and geographic location — the fact that many cities are located along the coast, for instance — make them especially vulnerable to the kinds of extreme weather events and sea level rise fueled by climate change. But cities are also responsible for 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, meaning action taken at the local level can go a long way towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.
That's a fact mayors like Garcetti are taking to heart. The city has plans to enact sweeping climate policies — from pledging to go completely carbon neutral in its electricity sector to planning a vast expansion of the city's public transportation system. Those are initiatives, Garcetti said, that can be accomplished at a local level but can have national and international implications. Mayors, it is said, are a notoriously competitive bunch — if one city enacts a policy that both benefits the environment and saves money, other cities are likely to follow. Last year, for instance, Los Angeles made the decision to purchase electric vehicles for all new non-patrol police vehicles — a move that saved the city 60 percent on fleet maintenance.
"You can't be a good mayor without talking about how you're going to convert your street lights to LED. You can't be a good mayor without saying where your EV plug-ins are going to be for people. It's become normalized," Garcetti said. "It's not just our city. It's Michigan, it's Colorado, it's Texas, it's Indiana, it's South Carolina, it's North Carolina, it's Ohio, it's Nevada. We've got cities everywhere. It's small, it's big, it's in between. And it's growing."
The economic case for climate action — the fact that Los Angeles' $57 million worth of LED lights paid for themselves with returns on energy efficiency in just six years, for instance — is one mayors are hoping will get through to the jobs-focused administration. In Boston, a study is underway to test autonomous vehicles on the city streets, a move that could both lower emissions and fundamentally transform the city's economy.
"As that program gets vetted and moves forward, the Trump administration might not look at the savings on the environment side of that, but they're certainly going to look at the business side of that," Boston mayor Marty Walsh said.
Electric vehicles in Los Angeles. CREDIT: AP Photo/Nick Ut, File
Both Garcetti and Walsh noted that for many mayors, climate action is not the partisan issue it has become at the federal level. Walsh said that when Boston started talking about making a pledge to become carbon-neutral by 2050, a Republican mayor from a small town nearby signed onto the pledge and even dedicated staff and resources to the issues. Garcetti brought up Jim Brainard, the Republican mayor of Carmel, Indiana, who has worked to make his city more climate-friendly during his 21-year tenure in office.
"We really have a ton of allies who understand," Garcetti said. "Republicans represent a lot of outdoors people who are seeing the change on the frontline when they are out there, people who spend a lot of time seeing those impacts and even having to fight them."
But while cities can take significant steps to reduce their carbon footprints and improve environmental policies — "the federal government can't force me to make my buildings more polluting, or to emit more energy or use more water," Garcetti said — there are things the federal government can do to slow that progress. Trump has promised to essentially zero out federal funding for the research and development of renewable energy, which would significantly undermine the United States' green energy sector.
"I think we would take some steps backwards with some very important things that are clearly about the Trump agenda: for national security and for manufacturing jobs, for batteries, for electric vehicles, for solar power," Garcetti said of cuts to federal funding. "We can see those only being done in other places, or we can retain those jobs here. I think if this administration looks at what are the high-paying jobs of the future, which I know they are laser-focused on, you can't take out green jobs because the ideology that somebody in the administration has says that this is combating a problem that doesn't exist."
Another concern is that a Trump administration — bolstered by a Republican majority in Congress — will prove so opposed to climate action that they take steps to preempt any progressive climate action at the state or local level. Trump's nominee for EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt, stoked these fears during his confirmation hearing when he refused to promise Democratic lawmakers from California and Massachusetts that he would uphold a waiver that allows California to set stricter vehicle emissions standards than the national average.
"I think it would be not only bad for California but bad for the nation," Garcetti said of preemption strategies like denying California's waiver. "If we're settling for being average, I don't see that this country will have much progress."
"If we're settling for being average, I don't see that this country will have much progress."
"We will very strongly fight against attempts to roll back California's independence to chart its own path," he added. "It has been good for jobs and great for the country."
But even if the federal government tries to slow — or halt — climate action at a local level, mayors like Garcetti are prepared to fight back, arguing that a Trump administration can only slow, not stop, progress.
"In a worst case scenario, the federal government can take away maybe 20 or 30 percent of our progress, and I'd rather have 100 percent than 70 or 80 percent, but I feel like that 70 or 80 percent of further progress is inevitable based on the leadership that we've already had," he said.
Boston's Walsh agreed.
"You're talking about on the ground where you can actually make a difference, not a policy coming down from Congress," Walsh added. "It's actually something being carried out on the streets of our cities in America."

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