16/02/2017

Heat Waves Scorch The Arctic, Australia, Parts Of U.S.

InsideClimate NewsNicholas Kusnetz

Record-high temperatures spike concerns about climate change's new normal in the melting Arctic and an already-hot Australia.
Melting sea ice is a troubling sign of record warmth in the Arctic. Credit: Getty Images
Heat waves are hitting the globe from north to south, with the Arctic, parts of Australia and the central United States sweating record warmth in recent days.
The Arctic is in the midst of another hot spell, with temperatures soaring far above average for the third time this winter. The heat comes after yet another record-breaking month for low levels of sea ice at the North Pole, part of a dramatic and troubling warming trend that scientists have reported over the past few months.
In Oklahoma and Texas, temperatures reached into the 90s over the weekend. Mangum, Okla. broke a daily record when the thermometer hit 99 degrees on Saturday.Last week, Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin issued an emergency burn ban in response to the extreme weather, but a grass fire broke out anyway in Oklahoma City, prompting authorities to ask some residents to leave their homes.
Parts of southeastern Australia are also in the midst of an extreme heat wave, with temperatures topping 115 degrees on Saturday west of Sydney. The heat has helped fuel dozens of bush fires that are forcing evacuations. Authorities have said the fire conditions are as bad as they have seen.
For climate scientists, the relative warmth in the Arctic is arguably the most troubling. Temperatures in the far north of the planet have risen more than 20 degrees above normal on average in the past week, according to data from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
Last week, the National Snow and Ice Data Center announced that the polar ice cap in January stood at a record low for the 38 years it has collected satellite data. Compared to a year earlier, which set the previous record for the smallest January ice cap, the North Pole had lost a Wyoming-sized area of ice.
"I've been looking at Arctic weather and climate for 35 years and I've never seen anything like the warming conditions we've been seeing this winter," said Mark Serreze, the center's director.
Some scientists believe that climate change is exacerbating weather patterns that allow storms to bring warm air north. The melting ice cap may be playing an important role, scientists say. Patches of open ocean act like reservoirs of heat, pushing the warmth farther north. Water also absorbs far more heat than ice, creating a warming feedback loop.
In December, NOAA released its annual Arctic Report Card, which warned that if the extreme warming of recent years continues, the region could experience a climatic shift. The Arctic is warming at twice the global average, and mean temperatures over land have risen 3.5 degrees Celsius since the beginning of the 20th century.
The dramatic warming has prompted seemingly outlandish proposals from some scientists. Last month, researchers published an article that envisioned an array of wind-powered pumps that would bring seawater from below up onto the ice surface, where it would freeze and thicken the ice cap. An extra several feet of ice, the scientists say, would help the polar cap withstand the warmer temperatures that have been shrinking it to record levels. The authors also put a price tag on their proposal: $500 billion per year.

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Humans Causing Climate To Change 170 Times Faster Than Natural Forces

The Guardian

Researchers behind ‘Anthropocene equation’ say impact of people’s intense activity on Earth far exceeds that of natural events spread across millennia
Greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans over the past 45 years have increased the rate of temperature rise to 1.7 degrees celsius per century. Photograph: ISS/NASA
For the first time, researchers have developed a mathematical equation to describe the impact of human activity on the earth, finding people are causing the climate to change 170 times faster than natural forces.
The equation was developed in conjunction with Professor Will Steffen, a climate change expert and researcher at the Australian National University, and was published in the journal The Anthropocene Review.
The authors of the paper wrote that for the past 4.5bn years astronomical and geophysical factors have been the dominating influences on the Earth system. The Earth system is defined by the researchers as the biosphere, including interactions and feedbacks with the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and upper lithosphere.
But over the past six decades human forces “have driven exceptionally rapid rates of change in the Earth system,” the authors wrote, giving rise to a period known as the Anthropocene.
“Human activities now rival the great forces of nature in driving changes to the Earth system,” the paper said.
Steffen and his co-researcher, Owen Gaffney, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, came up with an “Anthropocene Equation” to determine the impact of this period of intense human activity on the earth.
Explaining the equation in New Scientist, Gaffney said they developed it “by homing in on the rate of change of Earth’s life support system: the atmosphere, oceans, forests and wetlands, waterways and ice sheets and fabulous diversity of life”.
“For four billion years the rate of change of the Earth system has been a complex function of astronomical and geophysical forces plus internal dynamics: Earth’s orbit around the sun, gravitational interactions with other planets, the sun’s heat output, colliding continents, volcanoes and evolution, among others,” he wrote.
“In the equation, astronomical and geophysical forces tend to zero because of their slow nature or rarity, as do internal dynamics, for now. All these forces still exert pressure, but currently on orders of magnitude less than human impact.”
According to Steffen these forces have driven a rate of change of 0.01 degrees Celsius per century.
Greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans over the past 45 years, on the other hand, “have increased the rate of temperature rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius per century, dwarfing the natural background rate,” he said.
This represented a change to the climate that was 170 times faster than natural forces.
“We are not saying the astronomical forces of our solar system or geological processes have disappeared, but in terms of their impact in such a short period of time they are now negligible compared with our own influence,” Steffen said.
“Crystallising this evidence in the form of a simple equation gives the current situation a clarity that the wealth of data often dilutes.
“What we do is give a very specific number to show how humans are affecting the earth over a short timeframe. It shows that while other forces operate over millions of years, we as humans are having an impact at the same strength as the many of these other forces, but in the timeframe of just a couple of centuries.
“The human magnitude of climate change looks more like a meteorite strike than a gradual change.”
Gaffney and Steffen wrote that while the Earth system had proven resilient, achieving millions of years of relative stability due to the complex interactions between the Earth’s core and the biosphere, human societies would be unlikely to fare so well.
Failure to reduce anthropological climate change could “trigger societal collapse”, their research concluded.

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What A Relief That Climate Change Doesn't Really Exist

Fairfax -

As we've sweltered through this terrible summer – and lately, as bushfires have raged – what a comfort it's been to know that climate change doesn't exist and isn't happening.
Or, if it does exist, it's not caused by anything humans have done, so there's nothing we can do about it.
The Sir Ivan bushfire started east of Duneedoo in the NSW Central tablelands on a day that NSW fire authorities classified as catastrophic. Photo: Dean Sewell/Oculi
Or, if it is caused by humans burning fossil fuels for the past 200 years, let's say we've got a policy to deal with it, go to international conferences and make pledges to act, then come home and not do much about it.
That way, we'll have all bases covered: something to calm the consciences of those still silly enough to believe climate change is real, but not enough to annoy the party's many climate change deniers, nor our generous donors in the coal industry.

12 homes lost to NSW bushfires
More than 40,000 hectares and at least 12 homes have been destroyed, but no loss of life reported, in NSW worst ever fire day.

And, just to make you feel better, let me remind you of the big win the deniers have had. The Coalition's leading, longest-standing and most articulate supporter of action on climate change has changed sides.
Malcolm Turnbull, the man who lost his job as party leader because was so keen to see action he supported the Labor government's emissions trading scheme, is now keen to ensure it never happens again.
The squeakiest wheels in the party want him to demonise renewable energy, blaming it for all the blackouts and price rises?  Introduce new government subsidies for coal while making the future for power generation so uncertain no one's game to invest in anything?
Sure. Whatever it takes.
(Don't worry, Malcolm, I'm sure all the people inside and outside the Liberal fold who were so pleased when you became Prime Minister – me included – will learn to accept your need to abandon everything we know you believe and start doing Tony Abbott impressions.)
It's the easiest thing in the world for people to imagine that whatever's been happening lately is much bigger and more terrible than ever before.
Trouble is, the scientists keep confirming our casual impressions.  A report this month prepared by top climate scientists for the independent Climate Council, is all bad news.
They say all extreme weather events in Australia are now occurring in an atmosphere that's warmer and wetter than it was in the 1950s.
"Heatwaves are becoming hotter, lasting longer and occurring more often," they say.
"Extreme fire weather and the length of the fire season is increasing, leading to an increase in bushfire risk."
This fits with the findings of the latest biennial CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate report.
According to the bureau's Dr Karl Braganza, Australia is already experiencing the effects of climate change, with record-breaking heat now becoming commonplace across the country.
"Australia experienced its three warmest springs on record in 2013, 2014 and 2015," he says. "Temperature and rainfall during this period is critical to southern Australia's fire season.
"We've already seen an increase in fire weather and a longer fire season across southern and eastern Australia since the 1970s.
"In these regions the number of days with weather conducive to fire is likely to increase.
"Whilst the observations show us increased rainfall in some parts of Australia, we have also seen significant seasonal decline, such as in the April-October growing season, where an 11 per cent decline in rainfall has been experienced in the continental southeast since the mid-1990s.
"The changing climate significantly affects all Australians through increased heatwaves, more significant wet weather events and more severe fire weather conditions.
"Some of the record-breaking extreme heat we have been seeing recently will be considered normal in 30 years' time."
Oh, good.
Of course, none of this is having any effect on agriculture. It must be a great comfort to our farmers to know that, by order of Barnaby Joyce and the National Party, climate change is a figment of the climate scientists' imagination.
This is good news, since I read that reliable rainfall and predictable temperature ranges are critical to agricultural production, and these are the very factors affected by a changing climate – if it was changing, which it isn't.
A new CSIRO study, led by Dr Zvi Hochman, has found that Australia's average yields from wheat-growing more than tripled been 1900 and 1990 thanks to advances in technology, but have stalled in the years since then.
The study found that, since 1990, our wheat-growing zone had experienced an average rainfall decline of 2.8 millimetres, or 28 per cent per cropping season, and a maximum daily temperature increase of about 1 degree.
Australia's "yield potential" – determined by climate and soil type – which is always much higher than farmers' actual yields, has fallen by 27 per cent since 1990.
So all the efforts farmers have made to improve their yields with better technology and methods have served only to offset the effects of climate change, leaving them no better off.
"Assuming the climate trends we have observed over the past 26 years continue at the same rate, even if farmers continue to improve their practices, it is likely that the national wheat yield will fall," Hochman says.
He says these findings would be broadly applicable to other cereal grains, pulses and oilseed crops, which grow in the same regions and season.
But not to worry. They're only scientists. What would they know that our pollies didn't want to know?

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