50 Reefs: World-First Global Plan Says Only 10 Pc Of Coral Reefs Can Be Saved From Extinction

ABC News - Greg Hassall | Rebecca Latham

A before and after image of coral bleaching in March 2016 (left) and later dying in May 2016 (right) at Lizard Island. (Supplied: The Ocean Agency/XL Catlin Seaview Survey)

Key points: New focus on reefs that are least vulnerable to climate change and have best chance of survival once global temperatures have stabilised List of 50 reefs to be finalised by end of the year Uncertainty whether entire Great Barrier Reef will make list of reefs to be protected

A new global plan aims to save the meagre 10 per cent of the world's coral reefs predicted to survive beyond 2050.
It is the first worldwide initiative aimed at protecting reefs from extinction and to date funding is coming from philanthropic organisations, not governments.
Scientists estimate 90 per cent of the world's coral reefs will disappear in the next 35 years due to coral bleaching induced by global warming, pollution and over-development.
The grim outlook accounts for the targets set by the Paris Agreement on climate action being met and ocean temperatures stabilising.
The 50 Reefs initiative, launched today at the World Ocean Summit in Bali, is an ambitious plan to identify and protect the world's most critical reefs.
Built on the work of a team led by University of Queensland Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and the Ocean Agency's Richard Vevers, it brings together a coalition of scientific experts and philanthropic innovators from around the world to fund and implement the plan.
Professor Hoegh-Guldberg insisted their approach was realistic, not pessimistic.
"It's based on the best science. It's saying we will only have 10 per cent left but let's make sure those 10 per cent have the best chance of survival."

Coral bleaching is a highly visual direct impact of the ocean absorbing 93 per cent of climate change heat, The Ocean Agency says.

"There's no global plan at the moment to save coral reefs.
"This is the first of its kind. It's a massive plan."
The 50 Reefs initiative is radical in both its scope and approach. Importantly, it shifts the focus from the most critically endangered reefs to those that have the best chance of survival once global temperatures have stabilised.
Professor Hoegh-Guldberg referred to the process as one of "triage".
"We're only going to have 10 per cent of today's reefs there so, knowing that, how can we best provide support for those reefs so they do survive?"
Mr Vevers said the plan was about scientifically identifying the reefs least vulnerable to climate change and also the ones most important as seed centres to allow reefs to repopulate over time.
He said the predictions were a real wake up call that the planet was potentially losing its most biodiverse ecosystems.
"It's not about losing a tiger or a single species; it's an ecosystem of up to a million species. We're not just talking about corals; we're talking about all the species that are dependent on those corals — that's what's so shocking about what's happening right now," he said.

Global plan paints bleak picture for reefs (Image: The Ocean Agency / XL Catlin Seaview Survey) (ABC News)

Which reefs will make the list?
Ground-breaking technology, involving 360-degree virtual reality images, have helped document the state of reefs across the globe and will be used in the 50 Reefs program.
"No-one had ever tried to take 360-degree imagery underwater while motoring along a reef environment," Mr Vevers said.
So far, thousands of images have been taken across 22 countries.
Given the various criteria involved, the job of selecting the 50 reefs will fall to a team of international experts, who are expected to finalise their list by the end of this year.
Whether the Great Barrier Reef is included remains to be seen, although given its size and diversity there is an expectation parts of it would meet the criteria.
"We're going to leave the decision about how we select those 50 sites to the expert group but it's entirely possible that there might be part of the Great Barrier Reef that might be of special importance," Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said.

"Certainly the Great Barrier Reef is an important part of the mix," Mr Vevers said.

"So we're expecting the science to show the areas most vulnerable to bleaching and global impacts and the areas which are least vulnerable and hopefully that will help with the management."

Thousands of 360-degree virtual reality images will form part of the research into which reefs will be chosen for the 50 Reefs project. (Supplied: The Ocean Agency / XL Catlin Seaview Survey)

International non-government funding behind plan

Professor Hoegh-Guldberg says it's worth pouring effort into protecting the remaining 10 per cent of reefs expected to survive past 2050. (Australian Story: Rebecca Latham)

"The first phase — to identify those 50 reef systems and to begin to engage with business and governments and so on — is going to cost about a million dollars," Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said.
"The second phase, where we intervene and start to make changes on the ground, we're really talking about a much larger project — we're probably taking about $100 million at the very least."
Frustrated by a lack of political leadership with the management of climate change, the team has secured initial funding for the project from a range of non-government organisations including Bloomberg Philanthropies, The Tiffany and Co Foundation and the family foundation of Microsoft co-founder Paul G. Allen.
It comes after research found the temperatures that caused last year's devastating coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef will occur almost every year by 2050 unless greenhouse gas emissions are curbed quickly.

Links

• Reef authority warns of widespread coral bleaching again this year
• Coral bleaching on Great Barrier Reef could be normal within 20 years
• Coral bleaching and that UNESCO list. What's been going on with the reef?
• David Attenborough returns to struggling Great Barrier Reef to find answers

Fish Under Threat From Ocean Oxygen Depletion, Finds Study

The Guardian - Susan Smillie

Oxygen levels in oceans have fallen 2% in 50 years due to climate change, affecting marine habitat and large fish such as tuna and sharks

Large fish like marlin will be driven into ever narrower bands of oxygen-rich water near the surface, leading to more competition for food sources. Photograph: Bill Boyce/Geomar

The depletion of oxygen in our oceans threatens future fish stocks and risks altering the habitat and behaviour of marine life, scientists have warned, after a new study found oceanic oxygen levels had fallen by 2% in 50 years.
The study, carried out at Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Germany, was the most comprehensive of the subject to date. The fall in oxygen levels has been attributed to global warming and the authors warn that if it continues unchecked, the amount of oxygen lost could reach up to 7% by 2100. Very few marine organisms are able to adapt to low levels of oxygen.
The paper contains analysis of wide-ranging data from 1960 to 2010, documenting changes in oxygen distribution in the entire ocean for the first time. “Since large fish in particular avoid or do not survive in areas with low oxygen content, these changes can have far-reaching biological consequences,” said Dr Sunke Schmidtko, the report’s lead author.
Some areas have seen a greater drop than others. The Pacific – the planet’s largest ocean – has suffered the greatest volume of oxygen loss, while the Arctic witnessed the sharpest decline by percentage. “While the slight decrease of oxygen in the atmosphere is currently considered non-critical, the oxygen losses in the ocean can have far-reaching consequences because of the uneven distribution,” added another of the report’s authors, Lothar Stramma.
It is increasingly clear that the heaviest burden of climate change is falling on the planet’s oceans, which absorb more than 30% of the carbon produced on land. Rising sea levels are taking their toll on many of the world’s poorest places. Warming waters have devastated corals – including the Great Barrier Reef – in bleaching events.
Acidic oceans, caused by a drop in PH levels as carbon is absorbed, threaten creatures’ ability to build their calcium-based shells and other structures. Warming waters have also caused reproductive problems in species such as cod, and triggered their migration to colder climates. Lower oxygen levels in larger parts of the ocean are expected to force animals to seek out ever shrinking patches of habitable water, with significant impacts on the ecosystem and food web.
Callum Roberts, the author of Ocean of Life and a marine conservation biologist at the University of York, is unsurprised by the latest findings. “What we’re seeing is fallout from global warming,” he says. “It’s straightforward physics and chemistry playing out in front of our eyes, entirely in keeping with what we’d expect and yet another nail in coffin of climate change denial.”
Scientists have long predicted ocean deoxygenation due to climate change, but confirmation on this global scale, and at deep sea level, is concerning them. Last year, Matthew Long, an oceanographer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, predicted that oxygen loss would become evident “across large regions of the oceans” between 2030 and 2040. Reacting to the German findings, Long said it was “alarming to see this signal begin to emerge clearly in the observational data”, while Roberts said, “We now have a measurable change which is attributable to global warming.”
The report explains that the ocean’s oxygen supply is threatened by global warming in two ways. Warmer water is less able to contain oxygen than cold, so as the oceans warm, oxygen is reduced. Warmer water is also less dense, so the oxygen-rich surface layer cannot easily sink and circulate.
“As the world warms up, the thickness and temperature of the surface layers are increasing,” said Roberts. “This acts like a stronger lid on the world’s oceans, so there’s less oxygen transported down below.”
“Unless we address greenhouse gas emissions urgently we’ll see more and more of this,” said Roberts. “Life will become harder for creatures that live in the sea and for those that depend on them – ie us.”

A CTD-rosette is lowered into the ocean to analyse conductivity, temperature and depth and measure dissolved oxygen. Photograph: Geomar

Fish that rely on dissolved oxygen will grow more slowly, peak at a smaller body size, and produce fewer offspring. And, Roberts pointed out, larger fish such as tuna, swordfish and sharks will be badly affected given their greater dependence on larger amounts of oxygen – they will be driven into ever narrower bands of oxygen-rich water near the surface, as will much of their prey, leading to more competition for food sources and other changed behaviour.
One knock-on effect is likely to be an increase to overfishing: “The eastern Pacific has huge tuna fisheries already,” he pointed out. “If the tuna can’t dive down where it is uninhabitable, as oxygen deficient areas expand, they have less space at the surface, they’re squeezed into ever tighter spaces and they’re more vulnerable to being caught.”

Links

• The greatest threat to the oceans is ignorance
• Bay of Bengal: depleted fish stocks and huge dead zone signal tipping point
• Scientists to repeat 19th-century ship's crossing of polar ice cap
• Images of new bleaching on Great Barrier Reef heighten fears of coral death
• Scientists study ocean absorption of human carbon pollution
• Trump's likely science adviser calls climate scientists 'glassy-eyed cult'
• Could a £400bn plan to refreeze the Arctic before the ice melts really work?
• Cod in a cold climate – in pictures
• How warming seas are forcing fish to seek new waters

Climate Change Threatens Ecosystem Collapses In Ocean Hot Spots: Study

Fairfax

Six ocean hot spots that teem with the biggest mix of species are getting hit hardest by global warming and industrial fishing, an international study co-authored by an Australian scientist has found.
The study published in the journal Science Advances looked at 2100 species of fish, seabirds, marine mammals and even plankton to calculate Earth's hot spots of marine biodiversity.

Research scientist Andre Chiaradia and research technical officer Leanne Renwick at the Penguin Parade Reserve on Phillip Island. Photo: Rebecca Hallas

It found overfishing and warming temperatures were hurting the lush life in these areas.
"Human activities drive environmental changes at scales that could potentially cause ecosystem collapses in the marine environment," the study says.
Co-author Andre Chiaradia, a senior scientist and penguin expert at the Phillip Island Nature Parks in Australia, said: "In those hot spots, the changes are already happening.
"They are the most at risk."
Researchers found the liveliest ocean hot spot also happens to be where the science of evolution sprouted: the Pacific Ocean off the central South American coast.
Other hot spots include the the south-western Pacific off Australia's southern and eastern coast, south-western Atlantic Ocean off Argentina; the western Indian Ocean off the African coast; the central western Pacific Ocean surrounding Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines and the Oceania region of the Pacific around the international date line.
Four of the six hot spots are in the Pacific; all are either in the southern hemisphere or just north of the equator.
"What makes this biodiversity? It's the isolation," Dr Chiaradia said.
"On land, we have kangaroos and weird animals like the platypus. And in the ocean it's not different."
Penguins, which are near the top of the food chain, were a good example of the impact of changing water temperatures and currents, Dr Chiaradia said.
Warm El Nino waters have decimated Galapagos penguins and the population of southern African penguins had dropped by about 90 per cent in just 20 years.

Links

• Climate impacts on global hot spots of marine biodiversity
• Tambora and the mackerel year: Phenology and fisheries during an extreme climate event
• Global Map of Amphibian, Land Mammal Genetic Diversity Reveals Impact of Human Habitation