04/03/2017

Public-Owned Australian Power Grid Could Solve Energy Issues, Paper Argues

The Guardian - Australian Associated Press

Economist says national electricity market has been crippled by design flaws and a failure to take climate change into account
Australia needs a nationalised power grid to deal with the current and future energy supply challenges. Photograph: Andrew Milligan/PA
Australia’s electricity woes could be solved through a unified and publicly owned national power grid, a discussion paper has said.
The paper authored by University of Queensland economist Prof John Quiggin says the creation of the national electricity market in the 1990s has failed to lower power prices and improve system reliability or environmental sustainability.
It argues the electricity grid, including physical transmission networks in each state and interconnectors linking them, should instead be publicly owned.
And it says that “renationalised” grid should be responsible for maintaining a secure power supply and moving towards a zero emissions industry.
Quiggin said minor changes to the current national electricity market would not be able to resolve the “energy instability” that was holding Australia back.
“The price increases of the past decades and the series of recent breakdowns reflect systemic design flaws, exacerbated by the failure to take appropriate account of the implications of climate change,” he said in a statement on Friday.
He said some believed a publicly owned power grid was “unthinkable” but recent political upheavals were proof unthinkable ideas should not be dismissed.
“It is the only coherent response to the failure of neoliberal electricity reform, just as the establishment of a publicly owned national broadband network was the only feasible response to the failure of telecommunications reform,” he said.
The director of Flinders University’s Australian industrial transformation institute, which has released the paper, said it laid down a challenge to governments of all persuasions to create a policy in the nation’s interest.
“It is clear that the current system is unreliable and untenable,” Prof John Spoehr said. “This is a discussion we have to have, as a catalyst for genuine, nation building reform.”

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Deputy governor of Bank of Canada warns about climate change, touts pricing carbon

CBC News - Aaron Wherry

Climate change could cost Canada as much as $43B each year, Timothy Lane notes
The central bank's deputy governor Timothy Lane noted that Canada could 'face annual costs of between $21 billion and $43 billion by the 2050s' if action is not taken to mitigate global warming. (Dan Riedlhuber/Reuters) 
The deputy governor of the Bank of Canada touted the case for pricing carbon during a speech in Montreal on Thursday, warning that climate change and actions to address it will have "material and pervasive effects on Canada's economy and financial system."
Citing estimates by the now defunct National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy, a former federal agency that was disbanded by Stephen Harper's Conservative government, Timothy Lane noted that Canada could "face annual costs of between $21 billion and $43 billion by the 2050s" if action is not taken to mitigate global warming.
Noting that climate change is associated with extreme weather events, Lane pointed to the wildfires in Alberta that reduced Canada's GDP by one per cent in the second quarter of 2016.
Lane said moving to a low-carbon economy will require profound structural changes to the Canadian economy.
In terms of addressing climate change, Lane focused on two options for policymakers: pricing carbon and financing green initiatives.
A price on carbon can be established through a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade system, but "either way, we create incentives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the most efficient way."

Climate change costs
Pricing carbon is a central element of the Liberal government's national framework on climate change. Federal Conservatives and Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall have loudly criticized the Trudeau government's plan to establish a price.
"In economic terms, climate change is a negative externality. Any individual or company that engages in activities that generate greenhouse gases imposes a cost on everyone else by contributing to climate change," Lane said. "Establishing a price for carbon emissions forces polluters to bear those wider social costs."
Despite the skepticism of some, Lane said, price incentives work to change behaviour, pointing to an estimate that emissions have been reduced in British Columbia as a result of that province's carbon tax.
The deputy governor acknowledged that it can be costly for businesses and households to reduce their carbon footprint, but he noted that the revenue a government receives from pricing carbon can be used to lower other taxes and assist industries and families.
In the prepared text of his remarks, Lane also noted that pricing mechanisms can be designed to address competitiveness concerns that trade-exposed industries might have.

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Climate Change’s Signature Was Writ Large On Australia’s Crazy Summer Of 2017

The ConversationAndrew King | David Karoly | Geert Jan van Oldenborgh | Matthew Hale | Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick

Sydney’s summer was the hottest on record. AAP Image/Dean Lewins
Australia’s summer is officially over, and it’s certainly been a weird one. The centre and east of the continent have had severe heat with many temperature records falling, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland.
For much of the country, the heat peaked on the weekend of February 11-12, when many places hit the high 40s. That heatwave, which mainly affected NSW, was quickly attributed to climate change. But can we say whether the whole summer bore the fingerprint of human-induced climate change?
Overall, Australia experienced its 12th-hottest summer on record. NSW had its hottest recorded summer.
Parts of eastern Australia had their hottest summer on record, but it was a different story in the west. Bureau of Meteorology, Author provided
The NSW record average summer temperatures can indeed be linked directly to climate change. We have reached this conclusion using two separate methods of analysis.
First, using coupled model simulations from a paper led by climatologist Sophie Lewis, we see that the extreme heat over the season is at least 50 times more likely in the current climate compared to a modelled world without human influences.
We also carried out an analysis based on current and past observations (similar to previous analyses used for record heat in the Arctic in 2016 and central England in 2014), comparing the likelihood of this record in today’s climate with the likelihood of it happening in the climate of 1910 (the beginning of reliable weather observations).
Again, we found at least a 50-fold increase in the likelihood of this hot summer due to the influence of human factors on the climate.
New South Wales had its hottest summer since at least 1910 when reliable national records began. Bureau of Meteorology, Author provided
It is clear that human-induced climate change is greatly increasing the likelihood of record hot summers in NSW and Australia as a whole.
When we look at record summer heat, as represented by average maximum temperatures, we again find a clear human fingerprint on the NSW record.
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme summer heat (high average maximum temperatures) in New South Wales. Climate Central, Author provided
The Sydney and Canberra heat
So what about when we dig down to the local scale and look at those severe heatwaves? Can we still see the hand of climate change in those events?
As climate varies more on local scales than it does across an entire state like NSW, it can be harder to pick out the effect of climate change from the noise of the weather. On the other hand, it is the local temperature that people feel and is perhaps most meaningful.
In Canberra, we saw extreme heat with temperatures hitting 36℃ on February 9 and then topping 40℃ for the following two days. For that heatwave, we looked at the role of climate change, again by using the Weather@home model and by comparing past and present weather observations.
Both of these methods show that climate change has increased the likelihood of this kind of bout of extreme heat. The Weather@home results point to at least a 50% increase in the likelihood of this kind of heatwave.
For Sydney, which also had extreme temperatures, especially in the western suburbs, the effect of climate change on this heatwave is less clear. The observations show that it is likely that climate change increased the probability of such a heatwave occurring. The model shows the same, but the high year-to-year variability makes identifying the human influence more difficult at this location.

A sign of things to come?
We are seeing more frequent and intense heatwaves across Australia as the climate warms. While the characteristics of these weather events vary a great deal from year to year, the recent heat over eastern Australia has been exceptional. These trends are projected to continue in the coming decades, meaning that the climate change signal in these events will strengthen as conditions diverge further from historical averages.
Traditionally, Sydney’s central business district has had about three days a year above 35℃, averaged over the period 1981-2010. Over the decades from 2021 to 2040 we expect that number to average four a year instead.
To put this summer into context, we have seen a record 11 days hitting the 35℃ mark in Sydney.
It is a similar story for Canberra, where days above 35℃ tend to be more common (seven per year on average for 1981-2010) and are projected to increase to 12 per year for 2021-40. This summer, Canberra had 18 days above 35℃.
All of these results point to problems in the future as climate change causes heatwaves like this summer’s to become more common. This has many implications, not least for our health as many of us struggle to cope with the effects of excessive heat.

Some of our more unusual records
While the east battled record-breaking heat, the west battled extreme weather of a very different sort. Widespread heavy rains on February 9-11 caused flooding in parts of Western Australia. And on February 9 Perth experienced its coldest February day on record, peaking at just 17.4℃.
Back east, and just over a week after the extreme heat in Canberra, the capital’s airport experienced its coldest February morning on record (albeit after a weather station move in 2008). Temperatures dipped below 3℃ on the morning of February 21.
The past few months have given us more than our fair share of newsworthy weather. But the standout event has been the persistent and extreme heat in parts of eastern Australia – and that’s something we’re set to see plenty more of in the years to come.

Data were provided by the Bureau of Meteorology through its collaboration with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. This article was co-authored by Heidi Cullen, chief scientist with Climate Central.

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