If You Destroy It, They Will Come – Climate Change Displacement And The Trump Effect

The Conversation - Amy Maguire | Jason von Meding

Reuters/Carlos Barria

US President Donald Trump this week signed an executive order on “energy independence”. The order rescinds key elements of the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan.
Trump’s order lifts requirements placed on American states to slash carbon emissions. It characterises policies mindful of climate change as costly and harmful to American jobs.
However, as Trump strips back strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, some coastal communities in the US are planning for a “managed retreat” from sea-level rise. In other words, when mitigation attempts are abandoned, more communities will be forced into adaptation.
This state of affairs is both impractical and unjust. The scale of the human displacement that will flow from unmitigated climate change impacts is too great for managed retreat strategies. And countries – particularly high-emitting ones like the US – owe a moral obligation to commit to emissions reduction targets, even if they identify these as out of sync with short-term economic goals.

Trump puts words into action
But Trump’s most recent action was hardly unexpected. He has followed through with his campaign promise to focus attention elsewhere in environmental policy, given his view that:

There is still much that needs to be investigated in the field of ‘climate change’.

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 The image of Trump, flanked by joyous coal miners, signing this order and declaring “an end to the war on coal”, sends a chilling message to rest of the world.
The climate change denial movement in the US pervades the public sphere. Funded by donors ranging from Koch Industries and ExxonMobil to dozens of conservative foundations and think-tanks, an industry designed explicitly to confuse has been wildly successful.
However, as Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway argue in Merchants of Doubt:

Nobody can publish an article in a scientific journal claiming the sun orbits the earth, and for the same reason, you can’t publish an article in a peer-reviewed journal claiming there’s no global warming. Probably well-informed professional science journalists wouldn’t publish it either. But ordinary journalists repeatedly did.

Research conducted by Yale University reveals that although 71% of participants say they trust scientists about global warming, only 53% believe it is caused by human activity. The climate denial movement has convinced millions of the legitimacy of its junk science.

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The impacts of climate change are already here
Whether through ignorance of science or a misguided belief in “America First”, the Trump administration intends to proceed full steam ahead on a trajectory that inevitably ends in the collapse of earth systems.
In a cruel twist, many of the countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change are on the lower end of emissions. Poor and vulnerable countries also command the least power to lobby for the radical changes necessary to protect their people.
Trump is clearly not concerned with anthropogenic climate change at this moment. However, the risk that millions will face climate-change-induced displacement represents a humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented severity.
Climate change was this month identified as a source of great risk to national, global and human security by Trump’s own secretary of defence. Yet Trump’s strategy appears to be focused on short-term economic objectives, with an enhanced military capacity and tighter border protection to deal with the inevitable fallout.
The desire to protect privileges through the control of accumulated resources and economic opportunities is historically a significant driver to restrict the movement of people. A future with millions displaced by climate change will generate conflict around the world. And the most vulnerable populations will bear the greatest impact.

Climate change, displacement and human rights
As awareness has grown that climate change poses great risks to human security, an extensive body of literature has emerged to examine the human rights implications of climate change.
Some writers have engaged with the intersection of climate change-induced displacement and human rights. Jane McAdam’s work has been important in highlighting the urgent need for human rights analysis of displacement, particularly for Australia’s neighbouring Small Island Developing States in the Pacific.
The value of considering climate change impacts through a human rights lens is in revealing human stories, which can be obscured in scientific debates.
However, most of the existing literature fails to characterise climate displacement as a threat to collective human rights. A key concern in this context is the foundational right of self-determination. This right is protected by common Article 1(1) of the twin human rights covenants – the ICCPR and ICESCR:

All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.

Populations facing territory loss and forced displacement due to climate change also face losing their capacity to self-determine. International law as it stands is not equipped to protect populations forced to migrate internally or across borders.
Such challenges seem even more grave in light of Trump’s back-peddling on climate change policy. Retreat to parochial policymaking and refusal to acknowledge genuine global concerns deepens the incapacity of the international system to respond.

Reuters/David Gray

Acting today to protect those displaced tomorrow
Yet Trump’s regressive stance on climate change action will be perceived as a monumental shift from Barack Obama’s leadership on the issue. Critics argue the previous administration was simply pushing a green neoliberalism that will lead to the same environmental endpoint.

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However, the extent to which we are locked into system collapse remains to be seen. The new administration would prefer to ignore the problem rather than participate in global efforts, flawed as they may be. This rejection of science, reason and moral obligation is an assault on an international consensus to tackle anthropogenic climate change.
It also represents a shift towards a future where borders could become ever more violent, and those most impacted by climate change are prevented from leaving the affected areas. We have already seen how border walls are both ineffective in stemming migration and produce great human tragedy.
The international community must embed binding human rights obligations in international treaties governing climate change impacts before it is too late. A lack of perceived real consequences is an enabler for the kind of decision-making emanating from the Trump administration. In this context, the circumstances of people facing displacement must be at the centre – rather than the periphery – of concern.

Links

• President Trump's Energy Independence Policy
• Donald Trump's executive order on energy raises questions about future of Paris climate deal
• Trump repeals Obama's climate change curbs
• Climate Change Threats, Managed Retreats
• When Is It Time to Retreat from Climate Change?
• Managed retreat as a response to natural hazard risk

Climate Change: Global Reshuffle Of Wildlife Will Have Huge Impacts On Humanity

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

Mass migration of species to cooler climes has profound implications for society, pushing disease-carrying insects, crop pests and crucial pollinators into new areas, says international team of scientists

Tropical fish like this Blue-barred Parrotfish are expanding their distribution towards the poles and destroying economically important kelp forests in Australia. Photograph: Jason Edwards/NG/Getty Images

Global warming is reshuffling the ranges of animals and plants around the world with profound consequences for humanity, according to a major new analysis.
Rising temperatures on land and sea are increasingly forcing species to migrate to cooler climes, pushing disease-carrying insects into new areas, moving the pests that attack crops and shifting the pollinators that fertilise many of them, an international team of scientists has said.
They warn that some movements will damage important industries, such as forestry and tourism, and that tensions are emerging between nations over shifting natural resources, such as fish stocks. The mass migration of species now underway around the planet can also amplify climate change as, for example, darker vegetation grows to replace sun-reflecting snow fields in the Arctic.
“Human survival, for urban and rural communities, depends on other life on Earth,” the experts write in their analysis published in the journal Science. “Climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth.”
This mass movement of species is the biggest for about 25,000 years, the peak of the last ice age, say the scientists, who represent more than 40 institutions around the world. “The shifts will leave ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in their wake, radically reshaping the pattern of human wellbeing … and potentially leading to substantial conflict,” the team warn. “Human society has yet to appreciate the implications of unprecedented species redistribution for life on Earth, including for human lives.”

Climate change driven by human greenhouse gas emissions is not just increasing temperatures, but also raising sea levels, the acidity of the oceans and making extreme weather such as droughts and floods more frequent. All of these are forcing many species to migrate to survive.
“Land-based species are moving polewards by an average of 17km per decade, and marine species by 72km per decade” said Prof Gretta Pecl at the University of Tasmania in Australia, who led the new analysis.

As temperatures increase and rainfall patterns change, pests such as mosquitoes are being pushed into new areas where people may have little immunity to the diseases they carry. Photograph: Anders Lindström/SVA

There are many documented examples of individual species migrating in response to global warming and some examples of extinctions. But Pecl said: “Our study demonstrates how these changes are affecting ecosystems, human health and culture in the process.”
The most direct impact on humans is the movement of insects that carry diseases, such as the mosquitoes that transmit malaria shifting to new areas as they warm and where people may have little immunity. Another example is the northward spread in Europe and North America of the animal ticks that spread Lyme disease: the UK has seen a tenfold rise in cases since 2001 as winters become milder.
Food production is also being affected as crops have to be moved to cooler areas to survive, such as coffee, which will need to be grown at higher, cooler altitudes, causing deep disruption to a global industry. The pests of crops will also move, as will their natural predators, such as insects, birds, frogs and mammals.
Other resources are being affected, with a third of the land used for forestry in Europe set to become unuseable for valuable timber trees in the coming decades. Important fish stocks are migrating towards the poles in search of cooler waters, with the mackerel caught in Iceland jumping from 1,700 tonnes in 2006 to 120,000 tonnes in 2010, prompting a “mackerel war” with neighbours in whose waters the fish had previously been.
The benefits to humans being provided by species, and the complex ecosystems they live in, are also at risk. Mangroves, for example, are migrating polewards in Australia and in the southern US, meaning the storm protection and fish nurseries provided are being lost in some places.

As mangroves migrate polewards in Australia and the southern US, the storm protection and fish nurseries they provide are being lost in some places. Photograph: Marta Jarzyna

The shifting of animals and plants into new areas can sometimes lead to drastic changes, as those areas have not evolved with the incomers and lack natural defences. In Australia’s seas, kelp forests are being destroyed by an influx of tropical fish that eat them, threatening the important rock lobster trade.
The scientists also warn of feedback effects that can exacerbate climate change, citing the poleward spread of bark beetles in northern hemisphere forests. The beetles attack trees that may already be weakened by warmer, drier conditions, leading to more severe pest outbreaks and tree deaths. This in turn provides more fuel for forest fires, releasing more planet-warming carbon dioxide.
“Climate-driven species redistributions shouldn’t only be a concern for conservation biologists – they should worry everyone,” said Nathalie Pettorelli, at the ZSL Institute of Zoology in the UK, and one of the analysis team. “The world as a whole isn’t adequately prepared to handle the range of issues emerging from species moving across local, national, and international boundaries.”
She said plans to cope with climate change urgently needed to take these issues into account and said everyone could play a part in collecting much needed data on shifting species. “Citizen science can really help,” she said, with people reporting when they see new species in a region and some schemes are already set up.

Links

• The 10 species most at risk from climate change
• Greenland: the country set to cash in on climate change
• One in 10 UK wildlife species faces extinction, major report shows
• Agriculture and overuse greater threats to wildlife than climate change – study
• Climate change is disrupting seasonal behaviour of Britain's wildlife
• ‘Devastated’: scientists too late to captive breed mammal lost to climate change
• One-third of animal species will be hit by climate change, scientists warn
• Climate change driving species out of habitats much faster than expected

Why Koalas Are Suddenly Drinking Extra Water

National Geographic - Heather Brady 


Koalas have been showing an uncharacteristic behavior: drinking water. Koalas typically meet most of their daily need for water just by eating leaves. But researchers from the University of Sydney have documented an increase in sightings of koalas looking for water. Cameras near watering spots around the New South Wales, Australia town of Gunnedah showed koalas coming to drink, a cute sight that nonetheless may signal increased pressure from climate change.

Australian koalas are drinking much more water than they used to—and it's likely because of hot, dry weather aggravated by climate change.
Koalas, which normally spend most of their time in the safety of eucalyptus trees, have begun to climb down and drink from artificial water stations provided by University of Sydney researchers. The koalas of Gunnedah, a town in southeastern Australia often referred to as the "Koala Capital of the World," were drinking from the stations for more than 10 minutes on average, according to a press release from the university.
Koalas are leaving their trees even when they would normally be asleep, according to university researchers. The animals can sleep up to 18 hours a day in trees, and their primary diet consists of eucalyptus leaves, which they often eat at night. They can eat up to two and a half pounds of leaves per day.
Researchers think the koalas' newfound thirst is because the leaves that used to keep them hydrated are drying out as Gunnedah gets hotter and drier. The leaves used to provide enough water for the koalas that they didn't need to drink in addition. In fact, prior research suggests that koalas reject leaves with water contents less than 55 to 65 percent.
"Increasing hot and dry conditions will mean more droughts and heat waves affecting the koalas' habitat," Valentina Mella, a University of Sydney postdoctoral researcher, said in a statement. "The scientific literature is filled with statements saying that koalas do not need to drink free water, but our results show that koalas could benefit from water supplementation."
Koalas are listed as a vulnerable species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, threatened by stressors such as heat waves, tree-felling, and disease. The koala population took a major hit during the 1920s and 1930s, when they were widely hunted. Reintroduction efforts have helped, but koalas need around a hundred trees per animal, and the amount of available Australian woodlands is shrinking.
Gunnedah has seen an increase in its koala population, but the town's koala population dropped by 25 percent in 2009 because of a heat wave. Heat is likely to harm the area's koalas further. The study was conducted in the winter, and researchers believe the problem they observed will get worse during hotter summer months.
Australia's most recent summer (December 2016 to February 2017) brought record-breaking heat across much of New South Wales, the province that contains Gunnedah. Australian and Dutch climate scientists recently showed that climate change makes these kinds of extreme temperatures at least 10 times likelier than they otherwise would be.
But with the help of artificial water stations, Mella thinks that conservationists could give koalas a better chance to thrive.
"We hope to use our findings to create a practical plan to manage Australia's rural lands for this iconic species," she said.

Links

• Koalas driven to drink by climate change
• Koala water supplementation study in the Liverpool Plains, NSW
• International Union for Conservation of Nature
• Extreme Heat: Australia, February 2017