Lethal Heating: 04/25/17

25/04/2017

South Australia Heading To 80% Wind And Solar By 2021/22

Renew Economy - Giles Parkinson

South Australia is not just likely to have already met its target of 50 per cent renewables some eight years ahead of time, it is now heading for an extraordinary penetration rate of 80 per cent wind and solar by 2021.
That, at least, is the presumption of the Australian Energy Market Operator in a series of scenarios that it prepared for its submission into the Tamblyn review on the proposed second link from Tasmania to the mainland.
AEMO considered three different scenarios to assess whether that new link to Tasmania would be a good deal, and translated those into its own estimates of how much wind and solar would be built in each state over the next 5, 10, 15 and 20 years.

South Australia was an important factor in the AEMO’s deliberations on the extra link to Tasmania, because it suggested that it would make more sense if there was an extra link to South Australia, to take advantage of that state’s growing wind and solar output.
In two of the scenarios that it contemplated – the neutral one (above) based on current policies, and the ambitious climate goal of a 45 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 (below) – South Australia’s wind and solar capacity doubled over the next five years, before coming to a halt over the following 10 years.

Consider what that means. Its current capacity of around 1,600MW of large-scale wind energy meets just over 40 per cent of total state demand, and the 720MW of rooftop solar adds another 7 per cent. When Hornsdale 2 is completed later this year, that percentage will go beyond 50 per cent.
AEMO’s forecasts suggest the capacity of wind and solar (now that it is cost competitive with wind) will double to around 3,100MW by 2121/2022. Given that the state’s rooftop solar installation is also expected to soar, this suggests at last 80 per cent of the state’s electricity demand could be met by wind and solar.
That’s not necessarily something to worry about, if properly managed, given that the CSIRO and the Energy Networks Australia canvassed a similar scenario in their Future Grids work, which they said would not affect system reliability, although they were suggesting it would happen more than a decade later.
However, it should be noted that AEMO’s forecasts were completed before the state government unveiled its energy security target, which requires that 36 per cent of its local demand be met by local dispatchable resources, and 50 per cent by 2025 – which suggests that wind and solar will need to come with storage attached.
That looks achievable, given that the state is already holding one tender for 100MW/100MWh of battery storage, and many of the new solar proposals are coming “battery ready”. One developer, Reach Solar, says solar and storage is already cheaper than gas and will be “well below” $100/MWh – the current level of wholesale prices – within a few years.
AEMO has already canvassed the likelihood that rooftop solar, alone, could account for 100 per cent of minimum demand on some occasions within the next five to six years, a situation that is likely to be repeated in Western Australia and Tasmania. Even north Queensland is building so much large-scale solar and wind that its capacity will equate to minimum within a few years.

The only scenario where South Australia’s large-scale wind and solar capacity did not double was in the “low demand” scenario, where much of future demand is met by “distributed energy”, primarily rooftop solar and storage, and energy efficiency.

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How Corruption Affects Climate Change

Transparency International

Climate change, like corruption, is a matter of life or death.

The evidence is hard and clear. 2016 was the hottest year ever on record, extreme “once in a generation” weather events are becoming more regular, and fragile ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef are dying. Climate change is no longer a future threat; it is here.

As part of the negotiations leading to the Paris Agreement, world leaders agreed to mobilise US $100 billion in climate finance by 2020, and the same amount each year thereafter. How these funds are spent could save the lives of millions now, and ensure billions in the future are set on a safe path.

The Paris Agreement has come too late to stop the early impact of climate change. Even now the world’s ability to meet the Agreement's targets depend on a real surge of political will, which is shockingly absent from the current US Administration.

Transparency International's role in this to help ensure that the billions of dollars already pledged go where they’re needed. This requires transparency. 

"Climate change and corruption share many symptoms. They hit the poorest first and worst. They are caused by powerful individuals or entities seeking short term gain. In the long term, they put livelihoods at risk and threaten entire economies. They thrive on the flaws of national governments: you need strong global cooperation to stop them.”
Vania Montalvo, Transparencia Mexicana

Unfortunately, governance structures managing the response to climate change are under threat. Some of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world fare worst on our Corruption Perceptions Index. The money intended to improve and save lives could be lost through corruption.

If this happens it could derail the world's efforts to deploy the billions of dollars needed to stop and mitigate climate change.

What is Climate Finance?

Climate finance is money invested to help countries prevent climate change and adapt to its worst effects.

This money is pledged by rich, carbon-emitting countries (who have the greater share of responsibility in causing climate change) to poorer, climate-vulnerable countries.

This money falls into two categories:

Mitigation finance: that’s money to stop climate change getting worse overall (for example, renewable energy, clean transport, carbon markets or reforestation projects)
Adaptation finance: that’s money to help countries and communities already suffering (for example, build flood defenses, irrigation systems or emergency shelters)

Around the world, journalists and civil society have a huge part to play in sounding the alarm. This is where we come in. There’s a lot we can do and are doing to protect the money and make sure communities on the frontline of climate change have their say in the process and the money is used wisely.

Transparency International chapters around the world are monitoring climate finance as it enters and is distributed throughout their countries.

Transparency International Bangladesh visited a cyclone shelter site and discovered homes built without walls.
In the Maldives, the lowest-lying nation in the world, millions of dollars have vanished from a tsunami relief fund. People are now trying to find out where it went.

Where we detect a risk that mismanagement or corruption might occur, we’re calling for reforms.

We've also created a Handbook for communicators and journalists on climate change and corruption. This guide provides a thorough background on all things climate finance and helps turn complex, technical narratives into compelling stories.

Remember:

Climate finance is a matter of life and death
There is a lot CSOs and governments are doing already - and can still do - to prevent corruption
That’s why it’s so important to call out corruption and close down loopholes

Tackling climate change and corruption means taking on two of the greatest threats to people and the planet. But if corruption siphons off the money meant to tackle climate change, we threaten the lives of today’s most vulnerable people and of all future generations.

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Labor Fossil Fuel Policy: Lobby Group's Push To Leave Coal In The Ground

Fairfax - Amy Remeikis

Labor is poised to shake up its position on fossil fuels, with a key internal lobby group pushing for Bill Shorten to "start a global conversation" on the future of mining, and leaving coal in the ground.
After months of internal debate, the Labor Environment Action Network (LEAN) has drafted a policy for the party to follow, which would put a ban on any public funds being used to subsidise the fossil fuel industry and shift communities reliant on mining into other industries.

Labor is being asked to implement a fossil fuel policy which would look at leaving fossil fuels in the ground. Photo: Robert Rough

Federally, Labor has attempted to walk the line between pushing for a shift to renewable energy while remaining in support of fossil fuel mining, with electorates, particularly in Western Australia and Queensland, still heavily reliant on the sector.
But the party has so far resisted pressure, particularly from the Queensland Labor government, to support using the Northern Australian infrastructure fund to help private mining companies build a train line deemed critical to opening the Galilee Basin up to coal mining.

Government 'should get smashed': Jones
The government using taxpayers' dollars to support the Adani coal mine is the kind of policy that will see it "smashed in an election", says 2GB's Alan Jones.

Indian giant Adani has applied for a $900 million concessional loan from the government fund, to help finance a train corridor which would lead from the isolated mine site to the Abbot Point port.

Quarantining public funds from being used to help the fossil fuel industry is crucial to any Labor policy moving forward, LEAN co-ordinator Felicity Wade said, a move she said "most reasonable Australians" would support.
"The fossil fuel industry is a mature industry, these projects should stand or fall on their own financial merits. LEAN also believes existing fossil fuel subsidies should be dismantled," she said.
"If the private sector won't fund the Adani infrastructure, it is an irresponsible government that steps in with taxpayers' funds to prop up an un-economic proposal for private profit."
But she added it was an "uncomfortable fact" that for Australia, and the world, to meet the emissions reduction agreement adopted in Paris in 2015, which aims to keep warming well below 2 degrees celsius, "a significant proportion" of the globe's – and Australia's – fossil fuel reserves would need to remain untouched.
While the draft policy does not specifically address the Carmichael mine – billed as potentially the southern hemisphere's biggest, Ms Wade said "opening a new coal field in a time of spiralling climate change is a major problem".
But despite concerns from some within Labor and LEAN over the Adani project, the group was not going so far as to push Bill Shorten to abandon support for the mine, which is seen as critical to re-invigorating Queensland's economy.
"No individual mine is going to push climate change beyond 1.5 degrees," she said.
"The entire globe has to decide how to limit the exploitation of fossil fuels and how to do it fairly. It's hard to see how it's in our national interest to go it alone."
"Labor policy is built within the international framework in which fossil fuels are counted in the country in which they are burnt, not the source country.
"We need a coherent public policy response that deals with the fact that the carbon budget is finite and a significant percentage of fossil fuels still in the ground can never be exploited if we are to avoid disastrous climate change."
To meet the Paris Agreement, Ms Wade said the international community would have to address the "supply side" of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as limiting what each country used itself.
"Australia should use its middle-power status to lead this conversation," she said.
"With Canada, Australia is one of the only developed countries with large reserves of fossil fuels. It is in our national interest to ensure limits on fossil fuel extraction are fair while also ensuring the globe acts collectively to avoid the disaster of unfettered fossil fuel exploitation."
The proposed policy shift is expected to face fierce opposition from some quarters within the party, with fossil fuel mining still considered a bedrock of the Australian economy.

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