Climate Change Offers Huge Investment Opportunity, Al Gore Tells World Bank

AFR - Sophie Hares (Reuters)

Former US vice-president Al Gore after meeting Donald Trump at Trump Tower in December. AP

Climate change should be grasped as an opportunity to attract vast capital flows into low-carbon investments, create jobs and spur economic growth, rather than viewed as a money-absorbing burden, top officials and experts say.
Trillions of dollars are potentially available for climate investments and countries like India are blazing a trail in bringing cheap solar power to millions, but making sure the world's poorest benefit will prove a big challenge, a World Bank meeting heard late last week.
"It's the biggest opportunity in the history of the world - it's the biggest investment opportunity, but we have to have a clear vision, we have to have policy leadership... to bring the world community together to get the financing that is needed to move the momentum more quickly," former US Vice President Al Gore told the discussion.
World Bank president Jim Yong Kim said financing climate action could offer a more lucrative home for $US8.5 trillion ($11.2 trillion) in negative interest rate bonds, $US24.5 trillion in very low-yielding government-type bonds and a further $US8 trillion in cash, though a clear strategy still needed to be hammered out.
"Quite apart from what you think about climate change, there are opportunities for investments that will give you higher yield than any of those investments in which over $US40 trillion is sitting right now," Kim said.
Swedish Minister for Finance Magdalena Andersson said her country - which introduced a carbon tax 25 years ago - had combined significant emissions cuts with economic growth.
"We really need to mainstream climate policies in all investments and all political decisions," she said. "But we know that the most cost-effective way of getting investments in the right direction... is to put a price on carbon."
In the United States, 70 per cent of new electricity generation capacity last year came from solar and wind, noted Gore, outlining an opportunity to create a global industry based on clean energy sources, retrofitting buildings and adopting sustainable agriculture and forestry.

'Exponential growth'
"What the world needs is the vision that the solution to our global economic malaise is precisely the solution to the climate crisis," said Gore, who thought the United States was more than 50 per cent likely to remain in the Paris climate change agreement.
The key is how to unlock financing for economic growth that also brings climate benefits, according to former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres.
Friday's launch of a $US2 billion green bond fund backed by the International Finance Corporation and asset management firm Amundi could help drive climate investments in developing countries, she added.
"Thinking that climate action is expensive and a burden, and is a responsibility, is so five minutes ago," she said. "The exponential growth of technologies and the drop in prices (have) made this the best opportunity - and this is (the) story of growth of this century."
Following China's lead, countries like India are utilising solar power to "leapfrog" expensive electrification programmes and roll out cheap, clean supplies to those without access to power, the experts said.
Ensuring the world's poorest countries can tap investment to develop climate-resilient infrastructure and agriculture remains crucial, said the World Bank's Kim.
"The poor say we have the boot of climate change on our necks every day," he said.
The world is already dealing with crises linked to climate change pressures, from famine in Africa to Louisiana declaring a state of emergency due to coastal erosion, noted the panel.
"We cannot forget the social justice element of climate action," said Kim. "We've got to maintain our focus and make sure it doesn't all go towards fancy new technology, but (is) going towards, for example, making sure that every time it rains, people don't lose their homes."

Links

• Macquarie Group Reaffirms Commitment To Climate Change
• Risky Business: How Companies Are Getting Smart About Climate Change
• World Bank To Focus Future Investment On Clean Energy
• The Burning Issue In Climate Change
• Australian Super Funds Lose $5.6 Billion On Fossil Fuel Investments
• Climate Change 2016: Investors Vow To Pour Trillions Of Dollars Into Clean Energy Transition

Shaping Conflict In The 21st Century—The Future Of Food And Water Security

Hydropolitic Academy - Sinéad Lehane*

A Turkana woman scoops water from a dry river bed in Nasder, Kenya. A first downpour relieved pastoralists in the drought stricken Kenyan Turakana region after a twelve month span that pushed livestocks and communities to the brink of another looming humanitarian crisis. Photo: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images

Food and water security will shape the 21^st century. The interconnection between the availability and access to natural resources, political and economic stability, community wellbeing and the potential for conflict are indisputable. Those who view security through a traditional lens risk overlooking the complexities of conflict triggers as we move further into the 21^st century.
Over the next 35 years, population growth, reduced access to fresh water and declining arable land will place mounting pressure on global food and water security. The greatest pressure will be on those countries least equipped to deal with these challenges, increasing the risk of both inter- and intra-state conflict.
Food and water insecurity is not necessarily about a dearth of resources—we have enough food and water globally to meet demand. But demand for food and water is expected to outpace the supply of globally available resources. The majority of the world’s population growth to 2050 is expected to occur in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, but both regions are ill-equipped at present to access the required resources and meet the basic needs of their growing populations.

Population Growth and Movement
By 2050, an increasing number of countries will be unable to feed their people or quench their thirst for water. Land and water won’t move, but food and people can—and will—in response to resource scarcity. Consequently, food systems and markets around the world will continue to become progressively interdependent. In the case of food shortages, we can expect increased migration, across states and regions—but this is likely to intensify the potential for conflict.
The challenge of dealing with refugees largely falls on ill-equipped countries struggling with their own land, food, and water insecurity. For example, Yemen already houses a large number of internally displaced persons due to civil conflict, as well as a large number of refugees from the food-insecure and war-torn Horn of Africa. And now it is expected to become the world’s first source of water-refugees. Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, will likely become the first major city in the world to run out of water in the coming decades.

Land and water won’t move, but food and people can—and will—in response to resource scarcity.

Water Security
Increased resource scarcity will encourage states with arable land or freshwater shortages to become more aggressive in their efforts to expand their resource base. This will most likely manifest in states encroaching on shared resources such as transboundary river basins. There are 263 international basins that cross the political boundaries of two or more countries. These basins cover approximately half of the earth’s surface area and account for an estimated 60 percent of the global freshwater flow.
The Himalayan region is fast emerging as the most likely region for transboundary water disputes and competition in the world. Located about 4,500 meters above sea level, the Tibetan Plateau in the Himalayan Region is the largest repository of fresh water in the world after the Arctic and Antarctic regions. The source for a number of the world’s greatest river systems, this watershed supports close to half the world’s population across China, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
China, driven by severe water shortages and polluted water systems, has begun to harness the plateau’s water resources and divert it to the state’s industrial and densely populated northeast. This has led to heightened tensions with downstream riparian states that rely on the Tibetan Plateau as a means of livelihood, food and water security. Any diversion or damming upstream has the potential to negatively affect downstream riparian states. As water scarcity and degradation rises in many of these states, tensions over water allocations and control will grow. Efforts to find mutually beneficial solutions to water sharing issues will be necessary to reduce the risk of conflict and improve regional water security.

Food Security
Most food motivated conflict between now and 2050 is likely to take the form of civil unrest, largely because more than 80 percent of food produced is consumed within its country of origin.
Egypt, for example, has a strong historical link between civil unrest and food security. Bread riots are not uncommon. Rising prices and poor access to food triggered riots in 2008 and were a key contributing cause for the revolution in 2011. Currently, the state is stuck in a downward spiral; desperately requiring the phasing out of food and fuel subsidies to ensure economic stability and growth, the very act of doing so could lead to increased protests and insecurity. Food security and pricing will continue to play a critical role in Egyptian politics.
In his book, The Coming Famine, Julian Cribb writes that the wars of the 21^st century will involve failed states, rebellions, civil conflict, insurgencies and terrorism. All of these elements will be triggered by competition over dwindling resources, rather than global conflicts with clearly defined sides.
More than 40 countries experienced civil unrest following the food price crisis in 2008. The rapid increase in grain prices and prevailing food insecurity in many states is linked to the outbreak of protests, food riots and the breakdown of governance. Widespread food insecurity is a driving factor in creating a disaffected population ripe for rebellion. Given the interconnectivity of food security and political stability, it is likely food will continue to act as a political stressor on regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Addressing Insecurity
Improving food and water security and encouraging resource sharing is critical to creating a stable and secure global environment. While food and water shortages contribute to a rising cycle of violence, improving food and water security outcomes can trigger the opposite and reduce the potential for conflict.
With the global population expected to reach 9 billion by 2040, the likelihood of conflict exacerbated by scarcity over the next century is growing. Conflict is likely to be driven by a number of factors and difficult to address through diplomacy or military force. Population pressures, changing weather, urbanization, migration, a loss of arable land and freshwater resources are just some of the multi-layered stressors present in many states. Future inter-state conflict will move further away from the traditional, clear lines of military conflict and more towards economic control and influence.
Any efforts to limit or mitigate inter- and intra-state conflict must necessarily include proactive, collaborative and global solutions. Taking action on climate change, adopting greater long-term sustainability practices across all industries, and responding to scarcity as and where it occurs, are only a handful of the preventative measures required. National interests may need to be supplanted by the necessity to prioritize what is best for an increasingly globalized system. Food and water insecurity in any part of the world affects everyone. What is ultimately required is unprecedented international cooperation.

*Sinéad Lehane is research manager for Future Directions International’s Global Food and Water Crises Research program. Her current research projects include Australia’s food system and water security in the Tibetan Plateau region. More broadly, she is responsible for research and strategic analysis of food and water security in the Indian Ocean region.

Links

• Conflict, Climate Change and Record High Food Prices Contribute to Rising Global Food Insecurity
• Report says climate change poses risk to national and international security
• Is Climate Change Behind the Syrian Civil War?
• How Climate Change Helped Lead to the Uprising in Syria
• Food and Water Security in the Middle East to 2030: An Overview of FDI’s Landmark Study
• Strategic Competition in Afghanistan: Why Leveraging Kabul’s Food and Water Security Situation Must be Earned, not Expected
• Crisis in the Horn of Africa: Are we seeing the Normalisation of Food and Water Insecurity?

Climate Change And Health Are Inextricably Linked

Huffington Post - Dr. Tedros Adhanom

Graphic courtesy of World Health Organization Climate change and human health programme.

This year’s Earth Day theme promotes environmental and climate literacy. Global citizens need to be empowered with information and facts to act in defense of our planet.

WHO estimates that 12.6 million people die each year as a result of living or working in an unhealthy environment, contributing to nearly one-quarter of deaths around the world. Similarly, a WHO assessment concluded that climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050. This is a future we must avoid if we are to achieve our universal health coverage targets. That is why the health impacts of climate change are among my five priorities as candidate for Director-General of the WHO.
Climate change and variations particularly impact many aspects of life that are inextricably linked to health: food security, economic livelihoods, air safety and water and sanitation systems. Gender differences in health risks are likely to be worsened by climate change. There is evidence to show women and men suffer different negative health consequences following extreme weather events.

Fortunately, there is renewed global commitment to tackle climate change and implement the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement underlines the urgency to implement climate action in support of sustainable development. Opportunities exist not only to tackle environmental health risk factors, including air safety, food security and water and sanitation, but also to transform the development of health care delivery systems by using low-carbon, and more environmentally friendly approaches.

I’ve seen firsthand that shifts in weather patterns wrought by climate change are devastating millions in my country Ethiopia. In communities affected by extreme weather events or climate variations, vulnerable populations suffer most. Ethiopia has a robust response, designing development policies with a view to mitigating the impact of climate change. I am proud to say that in the fifth edition of the Global Green Economy Index released in September 2016, Ethiopia is ranked 14 globally in terms of climate change performance. In 2014, we were the 26th position on the same list.

My experience in Ethiopia helped shape my vision for WHO. We need to promote evidence-based decision-making and awareness. Specifically, we need to advocate for research and development, champion and support global and regional coalitions, and strengthen national capacity. Another necessary action is to secure funds to address health impacts of climate change. We must advocate for increased financial allocations at the global, regional and national levels. Finally we need to promote sustainability by championing the use of low-carbon approaches in the health sector, including in facility construction, waste management, transportation and water, as well as procurement and supply chain systems.

Putting environmental and climate literacy in the public debate will lead to innovative solutions and increased country commitment. This is how we will fully honour the Paris Agreement. Now is the time to take the positive and concrete actions that can still avert the possible catastrophe of climate change before it is too late.

Links

• World Health Organization Climate change and human health programme
• Donald Trump’s Earth Day Statement Is Shameful
• Happy Earth Day! Here Are All The Terrible Things Donald Trump Has Done So Far.
• Thousands Across The U.S. And The Globe March For Science In Defiance Of Donald Trump