21/05/2017

The ‘Ancient Carbon’ Of Alaska’s Tundras Is Being Released, Starting A Vicious Warming Cycle

ThinkProgressJoe Romm

“This is ancient carbon, thousands and millions of years old.” It’s being released “much earlier than we thought.”
NASA’s Land Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) data for April. CREDIT: NASA.
The Alaskan tundra is warming so quickly it has become a net emitter of carbon dioxide ahead of schedule, a new study finds.
Since CO2 is the primary heat-trapping greenhouse gas — and since the permafrost contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does today — this means a vicious cycle has begun that will speed up global warming.
“Because it’s getting warmer, there’s more CO2 coming out which means it’s going to get warmer which means there’s more CO2 coming out,” explained Harvard researcher and lead author Roisin Commane. “And it will just run away with itself.”
The study is the first to report that a major portion of the Arctic is a net source of heat-trapping emissions. As a result, Commane warns that our current climate models need to be updated: “We’re seeing this much earlier than we thought we would see it.”
“We find that Alaska, overall, was a net source of carbon to the atmosphere during 2012–2014,” the study concludes. Data from NOAA’s Barrow Alaska station “indicate that October through December emissions of CO2 from surrounding tundra increased by 73 percent since 1975, supporting the view that rising temperatures have made Arctic ecosystems a net source of CO2.”
The permafrost, or tundra, has been a very large carbon freezer. For a very long time, it has had a very low decomposition rate for the carbon-rich plant matter. But we’ve been leaving the freezer door wide open and are witnessing the permafrost being transformed from a long-term carbon locker to a short-term carbon un-locker.
“This is ancient carbon,” Dr. Commane told Alaska public radio. “The carbon that’s locked in the permafrost in the Arctic is thousands and millions of years old.”
Melting permafrost can release not just CO2, but also methane, a much stronger heat-trapping gas.
While most models that include melting permafrost look at CO2, Russian scientists have recently discovered some 7,000 underground bubbles of permafrost-related methane in Siberia. Since methane traps heat 86 times more effectively than CO2 over a 20-year span, these findings suggest that the effect of the melting permafrost is even greater than first thought.
Also, a 2008 study, “Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss,” found that rapid sea ice loss — as has been experienced since the study was published — could triple the rate of Arctic warming.
Meanwhile, the rapid Arctic warming that is fueling these emissions continues. On Monday, NASA reported that April 2017 was the second-hottest April on record — only April 2016 was hotter. As the map above shows, Arctic temperatures were blistering, up to 13.5°F (7.5°C) above the 1951–1980 average.
The longer we delay aggressive climate action, the harder it will be to stuff all the toothpaste back into the tube, and the more catastrophic climate impacts we will face.

Links

Arctic Stronghold Of World’s Seeds Flooded After Permafrost Melts

The Guardian

No seeds were lost but the ability of the rock vault to provide failsafe protection against all disasters is now threatened by climate change
The Svalbard ‘doomsday’ seed vault was built to protect millions of food crops from climate change, wars and natural disasters. Photograph: John Mcconnico/AP
It was designed as an impregnable deep-freeze to protect the world’s most precious seeds from any global disaster and ensure humanity’s food supply forever. But the Global Seed Vault, buried in a mountain deep inside the Arctic circle, has been breached after global warming produced extraordinary temperatures over the winter, sending meltwater gushing into the entrance tunnel.
The vault is on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen and contains almost a million packets of seeds, each a variety of an important food crop. When it was opened in 2008, the deep permafrost through which the vault was sunk was expected to provide “failsafe” protection against “the challenge of natural or man-made disasters”.
But soaring temperatures in the Arctic at the end of the world’s hottest ever recorded year led to melting and heavy rain, when light snow should have been falling. “It was not in our plans to think that the permafrost would not be there and that it would experience extreme weather like that,” said Hege Njaa Aschim, from the Norwegian government, which owns the vault.

The Svalbard seed vault: safeguarding the world’s crop varieties

“A lot of water went into the start of the tunnel and then it froze to ice, so it was like a glacier when you went in,” she told the Guardian. Fortunately, the meltwater did not reach the vault itself, the ice has been hacked out, and the precious seeds remain safe for now at the required storage temperature of -18C.
But the breach has questioned the ability of the vault to survive as a lifeline for humanity if catastrophe strikes. “It was supposed to [operate] without the help of humans, but now we are watching the seed vault 24 hours a day,” Aschim said. “We must see what we can do to minimise all the risks and make sure the seed bank can take care of itself.”
Plastic boxes containing plant seeds inside the international Svalbard Global Seed Vault on Spitsbergen, Norway. Photograph: Jens Buttner/dpa/Alamy
The vault’s managers are now waiting to see if the extreme heat of this winter was a one-off or will be repeated or even exceeded as climate change heats the planet. The end of 2016 saw average temperatures over 7C above normal on Spitsbergen, pushing the permafrost above melting point.
“The question is whether this is just happening now, or will it escalate?” said Aschim. The Svalbard archipelago, of which Spitsbergen is part, has warmed rapidly in recent decades, according to Ketil Isaksen, from Norway’s Meteorological Institute.
“The Arctic and especially Svalbard warms up faster than the rest of the world. The climate is changing dramatically and we are all amazed at how quickly it is going,” Isaksen told Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet.
The vault managers are now taking precautions, including major work to waterproof the 100m-long tunnel into the mountain and digging trenches into the mountainside to channel meltwater and rain away. They have also removed electrical equipment from the tunnel that produced some heat and installed pumps in the vault itself in case of a future flood.
Aschim said there was no option but to find solutions to ensure the enduring safety of the vault: “We have to find solutions. It is a big responsibility and we take it very seriously. We are doing this for the world.”
“This is supposed to last for eternity,” said Åsmund Asdal at the Nordic Genetic Resource Centre, which operates the seed vault.

Links

Financial Times Declares A Winner In The War For Energy’s Future, And Big Oil Won’t Be Happy

ThinkProgressJoe Romm

'Fossil fuels have lost. The rest of the world just doesn’t know it yet.'
Wind turbines in California. CREDIT: AP/Noah Berger, File
Traditional energy companies and mainstream financial publications are finally waking up to the new reality: The shift to renewable energy, electric cars, and a low-carbon economy is now unstoppable.
The details of this transition are spelled out in a new, must-read, 4000-word article in the Financial Times, “The Big Green Bang: how renewable energy became unstoppable.”
What is most remarkable about the article is that it appears in the Financial Times. The free-market oriented paper is the “most important business read” for the world’s top financial decision makers and “the most credible publication in reporting financial and economic issues” for global professional investors, according to surveys.
We simply don’t see articles like this in Rupert Murdoch-run Wall Street Journal or even the New York Times, which continues to misreport the clean energy revolution and just hired a columnist who spreads misinformation on climate solutions.
The business community, though, is starting to see the writing on the wall, especially in Europe. The CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, Europe’s largest company, declared in a recent speech that the transition to a low-carbon economy is not just “unstoppable.” It is a necessity that “must be embraced” if an oil company like Shell is to survive and thrive. The low-carbon future, he explained, will be built around renewable electricity and electric cars.
The Financial Times article, in fact, begins with an anecdote of a company that developed a better turbocharger for gas-powered cars. After getting some interest from big car companies last year, in January, “Suddenly, none wanted new products for cars running on fossil fuels.” Instead, car companies were putting their limited R&D budgets into electric cars, a seismic shift at an unprecedented speed.
Electric cars that were hard to even buy eight years ago are selling at an exponential rate,” explains FT’s environment correspondent Pilita Clark, “in the process driving down the price of batteries that hold the key to unleashing new levels of green growth.”
Indeed, one key reason the clean energy revolution is unstoppable is the dramatic and ongoing improvements in battery cost and performance. Advanced batteries are game-changing not only for the electrification of transportation, but also for the continued rapid penetration of renewables.
Battery prices have been cut in half since 2014. Europe’s largest power company, Italy’s Enel, projects battery costs falling some 30 percent more by 2021, the FT reports.
One reason battery prices are going to continue to plummet is that a staggering amount of new production capacity is being built. Tesla’s Gigafactory has gotten most of the press attention in this country, but it is “only one of at least 14 megafactories being built or planned,” the FT reports. Nine of the factories are in China.
Credit: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence via Financial Times
“Investors say important trends like this are obscured in countries where the existence of climate change is still so widely contested that the scale of the energy transition is under-estimated,” explains Clark, referring to countries like the United States.
The article ends by quoting Eddie O’Connor, CEO of Mainstream Renewable Power, an Irish wind farm developer and a big winner in Chile’s 2016 auction for new generation. The company easily beat providers of fossil fuel power — even though all bids had to guarantee meeting electricity demand 24 hours a day.
“Fossil fuels have lost,” O’Connor said. “The rest of the world just doesn’t know it yet.”

Links