Lethal Heating: 05/28/17

28/05/2017

Scientists Say The Pace Of Sea Level Rise Has Nearly Tripled Since 1990

Washington Post - Chris Mooney

An iceberg is pictured in the western Antarctic peninsula in March 2016. (Eitan Abramovich/AFP/Getty Images)

A new scientific analysis finds that the Earth’s oceans are rising nearly three times as rapidly as they were throughout most of the 20th century, one of the strongest indications yet that a much feared trend of not just sea level rise, but its acceleration, is now underway.
“We have a much stronger acceleration in sea level rise than formerly thought,” said Sönke Dangendorf, a researcher with the University of Siegen in Germany who led the study along with scientists at institutions in Spain, France, Norway and the Netherlands.
Their paper, just out in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, isn’t the first to find that the rate of rising seas is itself increasing — but it finds a bigger rate of increase than in past studies. The new paper concludes that before 1990, oceans were rising at about 1.1 millimeters per year, or just 0.43 inches per decade. From 1993 through 2012, though, it finds that they rose at 3.1 millimeters per year, or 1.22 inches per decade.
The cause, said Dangendorf, is that sea level rise throughout much of the 20th century was driven by the melting of land-based glaciers and the expansion of seawater as it warms, but sea level rise in the 21st century has now, on top of that, added in major contributions from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.
“The sea level rise is now three times as fast as before 1990,” Dangendorf said.
Studying the changing rate of sea level rise is complicated by the fact that scientists only have a precise satellite record of its rate going back to the early 1990s. Before that, the records rely on tide gauges spread around the world in various locations.
But sea level rise varies widely in different places, due to the rising and sinking of land, large-scale gravitational effects on the waters of the globe and other local factors. So scientists have struggled to piece together a longer record that merges together what we know from satellites with these older sources of information.
The new study takes a crack at this problem by trying to piece together a sea level record for the 20th century, before the beginning of the satellite record, by adjusting the results of local tide gauges based on an understanding of the factors affecting sea level rise in a given region, and then also weighting different regions differently in the final analysis. That’s how it came up with a relatively small rate of sea level rise from 1900 through 1990, followed by a much faster one afterward.
Robert Kopp, a Rutgers University sea level researcher who has also published research showing a sharp acceleration of sea level rise, called the new study a “nice analysis” in an email to The Washington Post.
“Their final estimate of 20th century (particularly pre-1990) global mean sea level rise is in good agreement with the results of the two different analyses presented by [our] 2015 paper, and less than those of most other reconstructions,” Kopp said.
That 2015 study found that from 1901 to 1990, sea level rose at a rate of 1.2 millimeters per year, very close to the current study’s estimate. But other researchers have found figures more in the range of 1.6 to 1.9 millimeters.
These differences matter a great deal because the larger sea level rise was during the 20th century, the less of an increase there has been since then — and vice-versa.
Overall, though, the disparities between different studies — many of which point to an acceleration, but which vary upon its size — suggests that scientists have converged on the big picture but are still debating its details.
An acceleration of sea level rise, after all, is an expected consequence of ongoing global warming, and there are projections that it could rise as high as 5 to 15 millimeters per year (1.97 to 5.9 inches per decade) in extreme climate warming scenarios, according to Dangendorf.
Kopp added that in the past five years, there is some indication that sea level rise could already be even higher than the 3.1 millimeter annual rate seen from 1993 through 2012. He cautioned, though, that “those higher rates over a short period of time probably include some level of natural variability as well as continued, human-caused acceleration.”
Just how much control we are able to exert over the rate of sea level rise will critically depend on how rapidly global greenhouse gas emissions come down in coming years — making the entire outlook closely tied to whether the United States sticks with the rest of the world in honoring the Paris climate agreement.
“Sea levels will continue to rise over the coming century, no matter whether we will adapt or not, but I think we can limit at least a part of the sea level rise. It will further accelerate, but how much is related to how we act as humans,” Dangendorf said.

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Donald Trump Isolated On Climate Change In 'Intense' Exchange At G7 Summit

Fairfax - Arne Delfs | Margaret Talev (Bloomberg)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Donald Trump was isolated on climate change at the Group of Seven meeting on Friday, as the US president said he's in no rush to decide whether to scrap his country's involvement in the Paris Agreement.
A closed-door session on the first day of the G7 summit in Sicily found unity on stepping up efforts to combat terrorism, but entered stormier waters on trade and on climate, Mrs Merkel said. At that stage it was six against one as leaders pressed Trump to hold to US agreements made under the landmark Paris climate accord.

G7 summit braces for clash on trade, climate
US President Donald Trump's views on climate change are "evolving" following discussions with European leaders who are pushing for him to stay in the Paris climate accord.

"We made it clear that we want the US to stick to its commitments," Mrs Merkel told reporters after the meeting on Friday. "There were very different arguments from us all urging the president to hold to the climate accord." She said the discussion was conducted in a very "honest" atmosphere, leading to a "very intense exchange."
After deriding climate change as a hoax and pledging to pull out of the Paris deal during his election campaign, Mr Trump has sidestepped the issue and passed up an number of opportunities to outline his international stance toward global warming. Members of his administration are deadlocked about whether the US should uphold the pact.
Mrs Merkel said that the US side made clear that it hasn't yet taken a decision on whether to scrap Paris "and won't make a decision here" at the G7.

Taking time
In the meeting, G7 leaders asked Mr Trump his timeframe for making a decision, according to a briefing by his top economic adviser, Gary Cohn. Mr Trump said, "I'd rather take my time" and get to the right decision, Mr Cohn told reporters travelling with Mr Trump in Sicily.
Mr Trump also expressed concerns that other countries that had tried to dial back their climate emissions like China and India had seen job growth suffer - and made clear he was not prepared to live with that trade-off, Mr Cohn said.
Mr Trump told the leaders, "he didn't want to be in second place," Mr Cohn said, especially because he ran on a platform of job creation and improving working-and middle-class opportunities and is committed to keeping that promise, Mr Cohn said.

G7 leaders, from left, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Donald Trump, and Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni. Photo: AP

Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, the summit's host, said separately that there was "no agreement" on the Paris accord.
"President Trump will take time to reflect on it, and the other countries are taking note of that," Mr Gentiloni said.

G7 leaders met in Sicily on Friday to discuss trade, climate change, refugees and other issues. Photo: Getty Images

"His views are evolving," Mr Cohn said, but Mr Trump's decision will be based on what's best for the United States. The president "is thinking about what his options are." Mr Trump "feels much more knowledgeable on the topic now," said Mr Cohn.

Pared down statement expected
Group of Seven leaders are preparing to sign off on a substantially pared-down statement at the close of their meeting, an indication of persisting divisions on climate change and trade.

Mr Trump and First Lady Melania, talk with Mr Trudeau as they arrive for a concert in the Sicilian citadel of Taormina. Photo: AP

The final communique - 32 pages last year - traditionally outlines the common positions of G7 leaders on the economy and other global issues requiring joint action by the world's leading powers. This year's statement is on pace to be one-third the length of last year's in Japan, according to three officials from delegations involved in the preparation.
Drafts of the communique as of Friday were due to address topics such as migration and gender equality. The "ongoing large-scale movement" of migrants and refugees calls for "coordinated efforts," according to a draft of the communique seen by Bloomberg News.
"We reaffirm the sovereign rights of states to control their own borders and set clear limits on net migration levels, as key elements of their national security and economic well-being," according to the draft.
The nations are also set to say gender equality is fundamental for human rights. The leaders also issued a separate statement on counter-terrorism efforts that called on social media companies to do more in the fight against terrorism.

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Governments Sued Over Climate Change, With Banks And Firms Next

New Scientist - Alice Klein

Climate-related cases are on the rise. Luke Sharrett/Bloomberg via Getty Images

If you can’t beat them, sue them. Citizens are increasingly taking governments to court over climate change inaction, with financial lenders – and possibly big firms – next in the firing line.
Some 894 climate change cases have now been filed in 24 countries, according to a report published last week by the United Nations Environment Programme and Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law in New York.
By some distance, most – 654 – have been in the US. Australia sits in second place, with 80 cases, and the UK third, with 49. The number of countries with climate cases has tripled since 2014.
Citizens have filed the vast majority of these cases against governments, with a handful lodged against fossil fuel companies.
Separately, campaign group ClientEarth has written to energy giants BP and Glencore warning them of the risk of investor lawsuits based on over-optimistic statements about future fossil fuel demand in their reporting.

Wins and losses
Recent years have seen significant wins for climate change cases. Environmental group Urgenda, for example, won a landmark case in 2015 that forced the Dutch government to commit to bigger emissions cuts. And in 2015, a Pakistani farmer successfully sued his government for failing to implement adequate climate change action.
Others have not had the same success. Last year, the Australian Conservation Foundation lost a legal battle over the Australian government’s approval of the Adani Carmichael coal megamine. And in the UK, fracking activists recently lost a case against a shale gas operation.
However, the success rate of climate cases is likely to grow following the Paris agreement, says the report. Under the accord, which was ratified late last year, each country is committed to specific emissions targets.
Although these commitments are not legally binding, they make it “possible for constituents to articulate more precisely and forcefully concerns about the gaps between current policy and the policy needed to achieve mitigation and adaptation objectives”, say the authors.
This is already starting to take effect. In March, EarthLife Africa successfully challenged the South African government’s approval of a new coal-fired power station. The high court decision was based partly on the country’s commitment to the Paris agreement.

Getting creative
Legal teams are also finding innovative ways to hold governments to account over climate change, says Brendan Sydes at Environmental Justice Australia. “There’s a whole international effort – a lot of energy and intellect is being poured into developing new legal remedies,” he says.
One example is in the US, where 21 youths have filed a case against the government for failing to safeguard their futures from dangerous climate change. Instead of appealing to environmental laws, the youths have invoked the “public trust doctrine” – an ancient principle holding that certain natural resources belong to everyone and must be protected by the state.
Banks and other financial institutions that lend money to fossil fuel projects may also find themselves the subject of legal action, Sydes says. There is an increasing recognition that directors who fail to consider climate risks could be liable for breaching their duty of due care and diligence, he says.
This is already causing some businesses to distance themselves from carbon-heavy investments, he adds. For example, Australia’s four major banks have all recently ruled out providing loans for construction of the Adani Carmichael mine. And worldwide, almost 700 institutions in 76 countries have committed to ending their investment in fossil fuel companies.
The growth of such litigation worldwide shows that many citizens hope courts can force governments and corporations to act on climate change, says Sydes. “People are increasingly turning to the courts to find duties and obligations of governments and corporations who are currently not acting sufficiently on climate change,” he says. “This trend is likely to continue.”

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