Lethal Heating: 06/01/17

01/06/2017

Climate Change Could Make Cities 8c Hotter – Scientists

The Guardian - Agence France-Presse

Combination of carbon emissions and 'urban heat island' effect of concrete and asphalt gives rise to worst-case scenario by end of 21st century

The median city stands to lose between 1.4 and 1.7% of GDP per year by 2050 due to climate change. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Under a dual onslaught of global warming and localised urban heating, some of the world's cities may be as much as 8C (14.4F) warmer by 2100, researchers have warned.
Such a temperature spike would have dire consequences for the health of city-dwellers, rob companies and industries of able workers, and put pressure on already strained natural resources such as water.
The projection is based on the worst-case scenario assumption that emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise throughout the 21st century.
The top quarter of most populated cities, in this scenario, could see temperatures rise 7C or more by century's end, said a study in the journal Nature Climate Change.
For some nearly 5C of the total would be attributed to average global warming.
The rest would be due to the so-called "urban heat island" effect, which occurs when parks, dams and lakes, which have a cooling effect, are replaced by concrete and asphalt – making cities warmer than their surrounds, the researchers said.
"The top 5% [of cities by population] could see increases in temperatures of about 8C and larger," study co-author Francisco Estrada of the Institute for Environmental Studies in the Netherlands said.
Estrada and a team used different projections of average planetary warming, combined with the UHI effect and potential harms, to estimate the future costs of warming on cities.
The median city, right in the middle of the range, stands to lose between 1.4% and 1.7% of GDP per year by 2050 and between 2.3% and 5.6% by 2100, they conclude.
"For the worst-off city, losses could reach up to 10.9% of GDP by 2100," wrote the team.
UHI "significantly" increased city temperatures and economic losses from global warming, they added.
This meant that local actions to reduce UHI – such as planting more trees or cooling roofs and pavements – could make a big difference in limiting warming and minimising costs.
Cities cover only about 1% of earth's surface but produce about 80% of gross world product and account for around 78% of energy consumed worldwide, say the researchers.
They produce more than 60% of global carbon dioxide emissions from burning coal, oil and gas for fuel.
The world's nations agreed in Paris in 2015 to the goal of limiting average global warming to two degrees centigrade over pre-industrial revolution levels by curbing greenhouse gas levels in the Earth's atmosphere.
For the latest study researchers used data from the world's 1,692 largest cities for the period 1950 to 2015.

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Climate Change: $4 Trillion Carbon Tax Is Needed To Save Humanity From Global Warming, Say Economists

The Independent - Ian Johnston

World Bank-backed report says revenue could be used in a number of ways, such as paying out household rebates, alleviating poverty and fostering low-carbon infrastructure

Cottam coal-fired power station in Nottinghamshire. AFP/Getty

A global carbon tax that would raise trillions of dollars if applied across the world should be introduced if the world is to avoid dangerous climate change, 13 leading economists have said in a new report.
Led by Professor Nicholas Stern, who produced the groundbreaking Stern Report in 2006, and Professor Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize for economics in 2001, the experts suggested a price for a tonne of carbon dioxide of $50 to $100 (£39-78) by 2030.
If implemented all over the world, the top price would raise about $4 trillion – more than the UK’s and Germany’s gross domestic products, but less than Japan’s – although the report suggested poorer countries might charge less.
Currently about 85 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions are not subject to a tax – while the fossil fuel sector receives subsidies of up to an estimated $5.3 trillion. The world’s largest carbon pricing scheme is in the EU, but it only charges about $6.70.
The High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices’ report, which was supported by the World Bank and France, said the money raised could be used in a variety of ways – such as making payments directly to citizens.
“The revenue can be used to foster growth in an equitable way, by returning the revenue as household rebates, supporting poorer sections of the population, managing transitional changes, investing in low-carbon infrastructure, and fostering technological change,” they said.
“Ensuring revenue neutrality via transfers and reductions in other taxes could be a policy option.”
And the benefits would not simply come from reducing the risk of global warming hitting two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – the point at which scientists believe it will get particularly dangerous – with the economists highlighting the benefits of cleaner air, reduced congestion and healthier ecosystems.
The report described climate change as “an urgent and fundamental challenge”.
“The goal of stabilising the temperature increase well under 2C is largely motivated by concerns over the immense potential scale of economic, social, and ecological damages that could result from the failure to manage climate change effectively,” it said.
This would require the “large-scale transformation” of human activities, affecting electricity generation, industrial processes, heating and cooling, transportation, agriculture and the way we live in general.
“However, climate policies, if well designed and implemented, are consistent with growth, development, and poverty reduction,” the economists added.
“The transition to a low-carbon economy is potentially a powerful, attractive, and sustainable growth story, marked by higher resilience, more innovation, more liveable cities, robust agriculture, and stronger ecosystems.”
The report called for the world to start cutting state subsidies for oil, coal and gas.
“Reducing fossil fuel subsidies is another essential step toward carbon pricing – in effect, these subsidies are similar to a negative emissions price,” it said.

Amid a flood in Islampur, Jamalpur, Bangladesh, a woman on a raft searches for somewhere dry to take shelter. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable places in the world to sea level rise, which is expected to make tens of millions of people homeless by 2050. Probal Rashid

And the economists stressed the urgency of implementing their recommendations.
“As carbon-pricing mechanisms take time to develop, countries should begin doing so immediately,” they wrote.

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Federal Government Could Finance Coal-Fired Power Stations With Clean Energy Funding

ABC News - Tom Lowrey

Josh Frydenberg announced plans to amend the CEFC Act. (ABC News: Nick Haggarty)

New coal-fired power stations using 'clean coal' technology could be funded by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), under plans announced by the Federal Government. Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has announced plans to amend the CEFC Act to allow investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS).
The technology involves capturing carbon dioxide from a power plant and burying it underground in a bid to reduce emissions.
The move has been met with immediate opposition from the Greens and a number of environment groups.
The CEFC was established to fund renewable energy, energy efficiency and low emissions technologies, and is not currently allowed to fund such projects.
Mr Frydenberg said CCS is "proven technology" than can help reduce Australia's emissions.

"Carbon capture and storage can reduce emissions by up to 90 per cent," he said.

"It will ensure that the Clean Energy Finance Corporation is technology neutral."

How does CCS work?

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) traps up to 90 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions produced from the use of fossil fuels
The carbon dioxide is then transported by pipeline or ship for storage
It is usually stored in an underground geological rock formation
The aim is to prevent large quantities of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere

Source: The Carbon Capture and Storage Association

Mr Frydenberg said the rule change could potentially see the CEFC funding new coal-fired power stations.
"If you were to build a high-efficiency, low-emission coal-fired power station combined with CCS, that would absolutely be a project that could be funded," he said.

Mr Frydenberg said carbon capture and storage can help reduce Australia's emissions. (ABC News: William Rollo)

Government 'devising ways to get rid of CEFC'

Govt may fund coal power

Treasurer Scott Morrison says the Clean Energy Finance Corporation could be used to fund new clean coal power stations.

Rod Campbell from the Australia Institute said the move was simply an attempt to re-model the CEFC in the Government's desired image.

"After the Government couldn't get rid of the CEFC through the Senate, they've now slowly and quietly devised a bunch of other ways to get rid of the CEFC and turn it into a body that can invest in and promote fossil fuel use," he said.

"And here's one of the way that they're trying to do that."
Greens MP Adam Bandt said the party planned to fight the move.
"The Liberals are taking money out of renewable energy, and giving it to coal," he said.

"Only the Liberals would think that coal counts as a clean energy source."

Frydenberg optimistic on pushing changes through Senate

Why emissions reductions from
'clean coal' remain a pipe dream

There have been massive efforts to attain the holy grail of "clean coal", but the current reality is that it remains a dirty way to produce energy, writes Stephen Long.

The change will require the Government to negotiate an amendment through the Senate, but Mr Frydenberg said he was hopeful Labor will get behind it.
"I'm confident that the Labor Party, when they look themselves in the mirror, and say 'are we serious about reducing emissions', they will come to support our changes to the CEFC legislation to encourage CCS," he said.
"Because to not do that would be a betrayal of their former position on this issue."
Labor has previously indicated it is not the kind of legislation it would support.
Industry groups have welcomed the announcement, arguing the CEFC should be supporting all forms of emerging low-emission technologies, not just renewables.
Brad Page from the Global CCS Institute said it was a welcome development.
"One of the significant impediments to the adoption of CCS in Australia has been the difficulty in financing projects," he said.
"To put it onto a more level playing field with renewables is a sensible initiative."
Mr Page said it is important carbon capture and storage is not seen as solely coal technology.
"The potential to retrofit coal power stations is certainly there, but with increasing uptake of gas-fired power stations — we're going to need CCS on those, if we're going to meet our Paris and beyond climate change targets."

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