Lethal Heating: 06/11/17

11/06/2017

India Will Sell Only Electric Cars Within The Next 13 Years

World Economic Forum - Callum Brodie

Poor air quality kills 1.2 million people in India every year. To help battle that staggering statistic the Indian government is instituting a plan to help get fossil fuel powered vehicles off the road. The plan calls for the end of gas powered vehicle sales by 2030.

In India, almost as many people die from air pollution as cigarette smoke. Image: REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri

Every car sold in India from 2030 will be electric, under new government plans that have delighted environmentalists and dismayed the oil industry.

It’s hoped that by ridding India’s roads of petrol and diesel cars in the years ahead, the country will be able to reduce the harmful levels of air pollution that contribute to a staggering 1.2 million deaths per year.

India’s booming economy has seen it become the world’s third-largest oil importer, shelling out $150 billion annually for the resource – so a switch to electric-powered vehicles would put a sizable dent in demand for oil. It’s been calculated that the revolutionary move would save the country $60 billion in energy costs by 2030, while also reducing running costs for millions of Indian car owners.

Image: Bloomberg

India’s Energy Minister Piyush Goyal says the government will financially support the initiative for the first two or three years, but the production of electric vehicles will be “driven by demand and not subsidy” after that.

Image: Shutterstock

Air pollution a big problem in India

More than a million people die in India every year as a result of breathing in toxic fumes, with an investigation by Greenpeace finding that the number of deaths caused by air pollution is only a fraction less than the number of smoking-related deaths.

The investigation also found that 3% of the country's gross domestic product was lost due to the levels of toxic smog.

In 2014, the World Health Organization determined that out of the 20 global cities with the most air pollution, 13 are in India.

Efforts have been made by the country’s leaders to to improve air quality, with one example coming in January 2016 when New Delhi’s government mandated that men could only drive their cars on alternate days depending on whether their registration plate ended with an odd or even number (single women were permitted to drive every day).

While such interventions have enjoyed modest success, switching to a fleet of purely electric cars would have a much greater environmental impact.

Indeed, it’s been calculated that the gradual switch to electric vehicles across India would decrease carbon emissions by 37% by 2030.

Oil firms facing uncertain future

As India’s ambitious electric vehicle plans begin to take shape, oil exporters will be frantically revising their calculations for oil demand in the region.

In its report into the impact of electric cars on oil demand, oil and gas giant BP forecast that the global fleet of petrol and diesel cars would almost double from about 900 million in 2015 to 1.7 billion by 2035.

Image: BP

Image: EVvolumes.com

Almost 90% of that growth was estimated to come from countries that are not members of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), such as India and China.

China is also gearing up for a move away from gas-guzzling cars.

Last month, the Chinese confirmed they intend to push ahead with plans that will see alternative fuel vehicles account for at least one-fifth of the 35 million annual vehicle sales projected, by 2025.

Oil bosses claim it’s too early to tell what the implications of a move away from petrol and diesel cars will be. However, Asia has long been the main driver of future oil demand and so developments in India and China will be watched extremely closely.

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To Slow Climate Change, India Joins The Renewable Energy Revolution

The Conversation - Arun Agrawal

French President Emmanuel Macron, left, welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, before their meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, Saturday, June 3, 2017. AP Photo/Kamil Zihnioglu

On June 3, two days after President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris climate accord, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchanged a hug with French President Emmanuel Macron during an official visit to Paris. Modi and Macron pledged to achieve emissions reductions beyond their nations' commitments under the Paris Agreement, and Macron announced he will visit India later this year for a summit on solar power.
For observers who equate India's energy production with a reliance on coal, this exchange came as a surprise. Modi's internationally visible pledge would put India three years ahead of schedule to achieve its "Intended Nationally Determined Contribution" to the Paris climate agreement. Instead of shifting to 40 percent renewables by 2030, India now expects to surpass this goal by 2027.
As the United States retreats from international action on climate with a bewildering lurch toward coal, other countries are assuming leadership in the most far-reaching energy transformation since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. China is cementing its role as a dominant producer of solar panels and wind turbines, and a number of European countries are continuing their slow move away from fossil fuels.
India, meanwhile, is emerging as a major market for renewable energy, laying out aggressive plans for investments in solar and wind. This shift is not about a starry-eyed prime minister seeking to garner international goodwill. It is the result of a fundamental energy and economic transition already underway, which India's leadership has recognized.

Parabolic dishes at the India One solar thermal power plant, Rajasthan. Brahma Kumaris/Flickr, CC BY-NC

An energy pricing revolution
Prime Minister Modi's renewable energy agenda aims to increase India's grid-tied renewable energy capacity from roughly 57 gigawatts in May 2017 to 175GW in 2022, with most of the increase coming through a major expansion in solar. India's installed capacity for solar energy has tripled in the last three years to its current level of 12GW. It is expected to jump by more than 100GW over the next six years, and increase further to 175GW before 2030.
Coal currently provides nearly 60 percent of India's of total installed electricity generating capacity of 330GW, but the government projects it will decline substantially as solar power ramps up. In May 2017 alone, the states of Gujarat, Odisha and Uttar Pradesh canceled thermal energy plants – that is, those powered by coal – with a combined capacity of nearly 14GW of power.
Price decline is perhaps the biggest reason India is shelving its plans for new coal-based power plants. Over the past 16 months, the cost of producing utility-scale solar electricity in India has fallen from 4.34 rupees per kilowatt-hour in January 2016 to 2.44 rupees (a little over 3 cents) in May 2017 – cheaper than coal. For the moment, large-scale solar and wind are roughly similar in price and lower than nuclear and fossil fuels.

Meenakshi Dewan tends to maintenance work on the solar street lighting in her village of Tinginaput, India. Solar power is bringing electricity to rural areas in India that are not connected to the national power grid. Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department for International Development/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

Prices this low for utility-scale renewable power in emerging economies are unprecedented but also exciting. Only last year, when the Indian state of Rajasthan held an electricity solar power auction, energy analysts deemed one company's bid to supply solar power for 4.34 rupees per kilowatt-hour too low, and possibly leading to project failure. But solar energy prices are still falling as a result of fierce competition, lower costs all along the supply chain and favorable interest rates.
Large, credible international companies such as SoftBank Group of Japan, Taiwan's Foxconn Technology, and India's Tata Power are jumping into this highly competitive market. And the shift is not just happening in India. Solar prices in Chile and the United Arab Emirates fell below 3 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2016. Indeed, where emerging economies are installing new power generation capacity, the economic argument in favor of renewables is strong and getting stronger.
Additional drivers of this revolution include the local and global pollution costs of extracting, transporting, refining and consuming fossil fuels. In opting for renewables, India and China are responding to widespread local protests against air and water pollution and the human health impacts of continued reliance on fossil fuels.
For poor countries, domestic solar power generation has another side benefit. It saves them foreign exchange by substituting solar energy for imports of oil, gas and coal.

Three key conditions
Three conditions are critical for this structural shift to continue in India and globally: growth in energy demand, innovation to make electricity grids more reliable and adequate land for installing solar modules.
Per capita electricity use in India is among the lowest of the emerging economies. Therefore, it is likely that demand will continue to rise to meet increasing availability of electricity.
India's national grid came into existence relatively recently in 2013 with the connection of its different regional grids. The grid must become more robust to cope with the range and intermittency of some forms of renewables-based power. One silver lining, however, is that high electricity demand periods in India for commercial activities and air conditioning occur during the day, when solar production is at its peak.
India's high population density means that freeing up land for solar installations will require careful zoning and land use planning. National policy should require greater emphasis on land areas that are less critical for other productive uses or for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management.

Smog obscures the Taj Mahal on Jan. 26, 2017. Air pollution, mainly from fossil fuel combustion, is discoloring the building's white marble. Kathleen/Flickr, CC BY

Solar diplomacy
Renewable power offers a relatively low-cost solution to energy security challenges, conserves scarce foreign exchange and reduces fossil-fuel-based pollution. These benefits led India and France to propose an International Solar Alliance for "sunshine" countries in the tropics at the Marrakech climate change conference in November 2016. These countries receive strong solar radiation that fluctuates very little throughout the year, thereby providing favorable conditions for low-cost solar power generation.
ISA is a treaty-based intergovernmental organization that already counts 123 countries as members. It is committed to increasing adoption of solar power production by sharing technological knowledge and by mobilizing $US1 trillion in financing from international development banks and the private sector by 2030. The Modi-Macron embrace extends far beyond France and India.
Broader adoption of renewable power production in emerging economies is not the only solution to climate change challenges. But it is a central plank in global strategies to manage climate change-related problems. Countries such as India, China, France and ISA members are demonstrating that a failure of U.S. leadership need not stand in the way of a renewables revolution.

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Alan Finkel Auditions For The Role Of Australia's Chief Political Scientist

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Friday marks an important day in Australia's efforts to settle on climate action but those hoping chief scientist Alan Finkel has puzzled out a durable and effective solution are likely to be disappointed.
Debate this week has focused on the means of how to achieve a cut in pollution, whether by a so-called clean energy target or an alternative route. But quite where the various rules and new mechanisms will take us in terms of carbon cuts has largely been sidelined.

Labor moves to end climate change policy wars
The federal opposition is indicating it may back a plan for cleaner energy through a low emissions target, a move which could bring to an end 10 years of climate policy wars.

The review recommends the electricity sector merely meets the 28 per cent cut in 2005-level emissions by 2030 pledged to the Paris climate accord by the Abbott-Turnbull governments.
Given the electricity sector is widely viewed as the industry best placed to make substantial - and relatively low cost - pollution cuts, Finkel's target is underwhelming. Instead, he recommends the government by 2020 prepare a whole-of-economy strategy for 2050 with no specifics other than "it may be appropriate" for governments to ask the sector do more than 28 per cent.
The result is a report that is as much a roadmap for politicians to get out of the energy and climate mire rather than one that serves Australia's climate goals - and what other nations expect of us.
The problem with the 28 per cent figure - which the government says Finkel chose himself - is the electricity sector has always been expected to lead the reduction event both in Australia and almost every other nation.
If that's all the power sector delivers, Australia will get nowhere near the 2030 Paris goal it has promised because other parts of the economy are much harder to tackle especially without an economy-wide carbon price.

The electricity sector is no longer expected to punch above its weight. Photo: Joe Armao

Biggest polluterThe power industry is Australia's biggest polluter, emitting 187.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent pollution in 2015, or about 35 per cent of the total.
Its concentrated nature and competitive renewable energy alternatives make the transition to a low-emissions future also among the cheapest pathways.
That's why major international bodies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency model swifter falls in energy sector emissions than Finkel has used when calculating how to keep global warming to less than two degrees above pre-industrial levels. (See IEA chart below.)

The revelation that Finkel set such a low mark was met with disbelief from some climate experts. Responses ranged from "you must have heard wrong" or "this is absolutely catastrophic - Australia is basically saying good bye to the Paris target".
Typical was Bob Ward, a policy director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, at the London School of Economics and Political Science.
"Most of the emissions reductions achieved so far by the UK have been in the power sector...[and] the same is true for emissions cuts in the United States," Mr Ward said.
"Making cuts in other sectors will be harder, and in transport, for instance, reducing emissions through the introduction of electric vehicles will depend on a supply of low-carbon power," he said. "It is difficult to see how Australia could follow a radically different path to cutting its emissions by 2030."

Chief Scientist Dr Alan Finkel has presented his electricity market report to the COAG leaders meeting in Hobart on Friday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

Hugh Saddler, an honorary associate professor at the Australian National University, put it bluntly: "What are they going to do, cut the cattle herd by 28 per cent by 2030?".
Proof that Australia may reduce its climate ambitions will need to await the government's fuller Review of Climate Policies due later this year. Still, after Donald Trump's recent decision to pull the US out of the Paris accord, it's natural global interest will focus on other countries wavering in their commitment.

Power play
In Finkel's defence, the terms of reference limited his focus "to develop a national reform blueprint to maintain energy security and reliability".
Still, he could have picked from the Climate Change Authority's special review last year of the electricity sector. Relative to 2015 levels (which were slightly lower than in 2005), that review modelled falls of 69-74 per cent to 2030.
Those briefed on Thursday suggested Finkel had taken a thoughtful approach with a keen eye on what was politically feasible.
That's why his report backs a clean energy target rather than an emissions intensity scheme given a tentative tick in Finkel's preliminary report. The Turnbull government stamped on that latter concept within days of its release in December.
Finkel decided on something that had a fighting chance of bipartisan support, one person said of the final report. Anything more ambitious would fail because of likely opposition within the federal coalition.
Another state's delegate was not overly worried about the 28 per cent target saying it was important to set up the architecture for the transition out of coal, and have the option of ramping it higher later.
Whether that plan wins support of a sceptical federal opposition and the Greens remains to be seen.
Another sought Finkel's suggestions for other sectors, such as transport and agriculture - where government policy is largely absent. The scientist is understood to have said that wasn't his instructions.
That broader study could be Finkel's next job, one of those briefed joked to Fairfax.

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