Lethal Heating: 06/28/17

28/06/2017

Coral Reefs Could Be Gone In 30 Years

National Geographic - Laura Parker

World Heritage reefs will die of heat stress unless global warming is curbed, a new UN study finds.

A diver explores corals on the Great Barrier Reef off Australia, the largest living structure on Earth. PHOTOGRAPH BY DAVID DOUBILET, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CREATIVE

The world's coral reefs, from the Great Barrier Reef off Australia to the Seychelles off East Africa, are in grave danger of dying out completely by mid-century unless carbon emissions are reduced enough to slow ocean warming, a new UNESCO study says.
And consequences could be severe for millions of people.
The decline of coral reefs has been well documented, reef by reef. But the new study is the first global examination of the vulnerability of the entire planet's reef systems, and it paints an especially grim picture. Of the 29 World Heritage reef areas, at least 25 of them will experience twice-per-decade severe bleaching events by 2040—a frequency that will "rapidly kill most corals present and prevent successful reproduction necessary for recovery of corals," the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization concluded. In some areas, that's happening already.

An aerial view of snorkel and dive boats at Sombrero coral reef system off the Florida Keys during spring extreme low tides. PHOTOGRAPH BY MIKE THEISS, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CREATIVE

Divers swim past a reef wall teeming with fish. PHOTOGRAPH BY DAVID DOUBILET, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CREATIVE

"These are spectacular places, many of which I've visited. Seeing the damage being wrought has just been heartbreaking," says Mark Eakin, a reef expert with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and a lead author of the new report. "We're to the point now where caction is essential. It's urgent."

Mass Bleachings
By 2100, most reef systems will die, unless carbon emissions are reduced. Many others will be gone even sooner. "Warming is projected to exceed the ability of reefs to survive within one to three decades for the majority of the World Heritage sites containing corals reefs," the report says.
Reefs, often referred to as the rainforests of the oceans, occupy less than one percent of the ocean floor, but provide habitat for a million species, including a fourth of the world's fish. They also protect coastlines against erosion from tropical storms and act as a barrier to sea-level rise.

Giant soft coral, likely hundreds of years old, is rooted on a coral reef wall at a depth of 40 meters in New Caledonia. PHOTOGRAPH BY ENRIC SALA, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

"It is terrifying to think of the repercussions of the global and large scale loss of reefs," says Ruth Gates, director of the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology in Kaneohe, Hawaii. "The reduction in food supplies, the lack of coastal protection as the reef collapses and subsequent land erosion will make some places unlivable and people will have to move. And that's not even mentioning the collapse of reef-related tourism."
In the past three years, 25 reefs—which comprise three-fourths of the world's reef systems— experienced severe bleaching events in what scientists concluded was the worst-ever sequence of bleachings to date. The Great Barrier Reef was especially hard hit. Other reefs that experienced severe bleaching include the Seychelles, New Caledonia, 750 miles (1,210 kilometres) east of Australia, and the United States, off Hawaii and Florida.
"The last three years have been extremely depressing for me," Eakin, with NOAA, says. "We're seeing truly catastrophic damage to many reef systems around the world. The Great Barrier Reef damage we've seen is greater than anything we've seen in the past 20 years."

Humphead wrasse and other fish swimming in a coral reef Near Lord Howe Island, New South Wales, Australia. PHOTOGRAPH BY DAVID DOUBILET, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC CREATIVE

The consequences are already being felt by some people, and will quickly grow more severe, says Eakin's NOAA colleague and co-author Scott F. Heron. Low-lying islands such as Kiribati, a string of 33 coral atolls in the central Pacific Ocean, already see saltwater inundating freshwater drinking sources. Higher tides and crumbling reefs are causing more storm surges. Soon, loss of coral, especially when combined with global overfishing, will translate to fewer fish—and local protein shortages.
"These are real things that real people are experiencing," Heron says. "I've met these people. They've been to my house. This is happening."
Heron also notes that despite scepticism in some corners about climate change, even the crudest of models from two decades ago predicted just the type of reef damage seen today.
"If what the models projected back then has started to come true, even with all of their issues, then we should have good faith in the science of the current projections," Heron says. "And those projections say if we don't act there will be many, many serious impacts."

Saint Joseph Atoll, a nature reserve with a marine protected area in Seychelles Islands. PHOTOGRAPH BY THOMAS PESCHAK, NATIONAL GEORGAPHIC CREATIVE

Time To Act
Most World Heritage sites are managed locally to control pollutants from farm runoff or overfishing. Now, the "ubiquitous global threat" to reef systems has become so great, Eakin and Heron say, that local protections are not enough. They hope their new, bleak assessment will help the world's nations to realise that unless they move faster to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, these special places—and the people who rely on them—will suffer greatly, far sooner than expected.
"When someone needs help, the overwhelming majority of us will stretch ourselves to help out—it's a human trait. It's what makes us people," Heron adds. "That the people most impacted by these changes are not necessarily people we encounter in our day-to-day lives does not remove our responsibility to help them."

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'Long, Slow, Horrible': Former Defence Officers Warn Of Climate Impacts On National Security

Fairfax - Fergus Hunter

Former Defence Force officers, including a former chief of the Australian military, have warned that climate change will emerge as the defining security threat of the 21st century and urged governments to step up their responses accordingly.
The warnings come as the Senate convenes an inquiry into the national security implications of the environmental phenomenon, called by Greens senator Scott Ludlam. The government has dismissed the move, arguing it is unnecessary because of actions already being taken by the Defence Force.

Climate policy debate intensifies
Politicians from all sides have been very willing to share their thoughts on climate policy and the government's plan for a clean energy target.

But a former Defence Force chief, retired admiral Chris Barrie, says the overall response to the "existential threat" needs to be ramped up as Australia faces particular exposure to the consequences of extreme weather events, higher temperatures and sea level rises.
Mr Barrie said the world's governments were not on track to keep warming to 2 degrees celsius – the target laid out in the Paris climate accord – and said the impacts on humanity could be "long, slow, lingering and horrible".
"I think the climate change threat is pretty damn serious and we have fiddled around in terms of getting in place the right systems to head off the worst outcomes," he told Fairfax Media, calling for measured adaptation by the military and other sectors and rapid global reduction of emissions.
"The military have been working on it but their perspective is limited to responses to natural disasters and protecting bases. They are not at the forefront of heading off the challenge. That is the responsibility of the leadership at the very top and the community."
Experts have warned that Australia lies in a region described as "disaster alley", with booming populations that are exposed to cyclones, rising sea levels and extreme weather. These threats are predicted to worsen and unleash waves of climate refugees.
The 2016 Defence White Paper labelled climate change a "major challenge for countries in Australia's immediate region". Since then, Defence has established a climate security adviser in its upper echelons and factored in environmental planning and risk into its operations. They are also trying to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Jackson Kiloe, the Premier of Taro in the Solomon Islands, standing where the shoreline used to be. Photo: Penny Stephens

"Climate change will see higher temperatures, increased sea-level rise and will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. These effects will exacerbate the challenges of population growth and environmental degradation, and will contribute to food shortages and undermine economic development," the white paper said.
Defence has also completed a study into the impact of sea level rise, flooding, storm surge and coastal erosion on bases and is conducting a similar analysis on the ability of training sites to continue under environmental upheaval.

Families internally displaced by drought arrive at makeshift camps in the Tabelaha area on the outskirts of Mogadishu, Somalia. Photo: AP

Retired army major Michael Thomas, now a senior fellow at the Centre for Climate and Security, said global warming increases the likelihood of instability in the region and further abroad, particularly for developing nations.
"I think it's the defining threat of this century. I can't think of any other threat that is transforming the planet on this level or scale. It's such a ubiquitous threat," he said.
"People might say terror is a threat and that's true but I don't think it's anywhere near what climate change is presenting itself as."
An often cited example of the environment as a "threat multiplier" is the severe, four-year drought that preceded the Syrian civil war, which has killed more than 400,000 people and displaced more than five million. The drought forced regional farmers and workers into the cities and created food shortages and political instability.
Mr Thomas praised the Defence Force for its work so far but said they had been handicapped by a decade of fraught political debates and policy uncertainty, comparing it to the unpredictable nature of national energy policy.
In a September 2016 address, Chief of Army Lieutenant General Angus Campbell warned that the 10 countries most at risk of sea level rise were in Australia's immediate region.
Lieutenant General Campbell compared the estimated cost of inaction, a 23 per cent hit to global GDP by 2100, to the cost of action, 1.6 per cent impact by 2050. He expressed fear that climate change was "the ultimate threat multiplier".

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Suing To Save The Climate: What To Do When Your Future’s At Risk And Your Government Doesn’t Care

Huffington Post - Kelly Rigg

New Zealand is the latest country to be sued for its failure to act on climate

Sarah Thomson

On June 8, U.S. District Judge Ann Aiken observed, "I have no doubt that the right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life is fundamental to a free and ordered society."
With these words, a case brought by a group of 21 young people against the government for failing to protect their right to a safe climate was granted permission to proceed to trial.
Her decision came nearly two years after the Urgenda Foundation sued the Dutch government and won – a decision which ordered the government to reduce emissions in line with scientific recommendations, by 25% from 1990 levels by 2020.
Although the governments of both countries are working to overturn these decisions, climate lawsuits are spreading rapidly around the world. Cases have been brought against the governments of Belgium, Switzerland, Norway, and Pakistan (not to mention countless others targeting corporate actors).
Next up is New Zealand, a country that is known for its ancient and spectacular natural landscapes and swaths of vast, untouched wilderness. But despite its pristine reputation, the country has a dirty secret: rising greenhouse gas emissions that make it one of the highest per capita emitters in the world, enabled by a woefully inadequate climate change policy.
That policy is about to come under sharp scrutiny in a court case being brought against the government by law student Sarah Thomson, which is due to be heard by a local court on June 26th.
Sarah claims that the government's inaction is completely out of step with the international scientific and political consensus regarding the steps needed to adequately respond to climate change.
It will be hard for the government to argue against her position.
After all, New Zealand is a part of this consensus: having accepted the findings of IPCC reports (the world's leading scientific body on climate change whose final reports are approved by governments) and ratified the Paris Agreement under the UN climate convention.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold temperature rise to well under 2°C, with the aim of limiting it to 1.5°C. To do so, they committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the coming decades with the aim of reaching net zero emissions by the second half of the century. With those goals in mind, New Zealand's commitment is laughable – a reduction of only 11% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
This is irresponsible not only from an international perspective, but it is suicidal for New Zealand itself.
As Sarah's case points out, the IPCC has concluded that New Zealand will be hit with increasingly intense and frequent floods and wildfires if greenhouse gases continue to be emitted at current rates. And despite its relative isolation, the country can expect an influx of refugees from neighboring Pacific Island States as their islands ultimately disappear under the waves.
Indeed the first climate refugees have already arrived: in 2014, a family from Tuvalu was granted residence in New Zealand on humanitarian grounds, taking into account the impacts of climate change.
More requests are starting to come in, suggesting that this is only the tip of a melting iceberg.
If Sarah is successful, New Zealand's Minister for Climate Change Issues will have to revise the government's policy to bring it in line with the global consensus regarding the actions that developed countries must take to prevent dangerous climate change.
In the meantime, regardless of the outcome, Sarah has joined a powerful and growing global movement of citizens taking their governments to court for climate change.
Lawsuits are costly, and are generally seen as a strategy of last resort. But with only a few short years remaining to bend the curve on emissions to stave off a full-blown climate catastrophe, we can expect many more to come.
Desperate times clearly call for desperate measures.

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