15/07/2017

The Cynical And Dishonest Denial Of Climate Change Has To End: It's Time For Leadership

The Guardian*

Absence of climate and energy policy has left Australia lagging dangerously behind, missing out on investment and facing major electricity disruptions.
“Each day that goes by without policy settings that invite investment in large-scale renewables only makes the inevitable transition harder.” Photograph: Tim Phillips Photos/Getty Images

Australia has enough renewable energy to power the country 500 times over. With South Australia a step closer to unveiling the largest lithium ion battery storage facility in the world, it is clear just how fast we can make the transition to large-scale renewables when the right policy settings are in place and investors have certainty.
More than a decade ago, as the head of BP Australasia I pushed for action on climate change.
At the time many Australian business leaders, global companies, governments and the world’s major scientific institutions accepted the science of climate change. As a sector, we wanted certainty. Ten years later and business is still calling for certainty. That is, long-term policies that allow businesses to commit to do the heavy lifting in response to an identified, significant and growing business risk – climate change.
A carrot-and-stick approach will be required to nurture the transition to a clean energy future and move potential investments from discretionary to mandatory categories. Often there is no competitive advantage in being a first mover.
Businesses will not drive investment without the right policies. Our preference a decade ago was for a price on carbon established by an emissions trading scheme as a core part of policy settings.
The last decade’s climate policy debate has been characterised by U-turns, a lack of bipartisanship, short-term populism, denial and misinformation, not to mention the scoring of political points rather than developing a long-term framework for what is a global and intergenerational issue.
The transition to a low carbon future will now be more expensive and more disruptive than it ever needed to be. An absence of climate and energy policy has left Australia lagging dangerously behind, missing out on significant investment and facing major disruptions in local electricity markets.
Governments have also, for the most part, elected to overlook the social disruptions that our inevitable energy transition will cause.
The recent closure of the Hazelwood coal plant in Victoria was foreseen many years ago. Regrettably, a refusal to acknowledge the need for future planning until it was too late left the La Trobe Valley community to live with the consequences.
Likewise in Queensland’s Galilee Basin, a huge amount of political energy is being wasted talking up the benefits of the nation’s biggest planned coal mine, which will be bad for local communities and puts the Great Barrier Reef at risk.
Big business is often accused of making expedient short-term decisions with little regard to the long-term viability and survival of the business. Rather than long-term planning to address the very real issues being faced by the people in Queensland, we are seeing at best ill-informed and at worst cynical and dishonest denial of the reality.
The effects of climate change are happening now. This looks like sea-level rise and coastal flooding. It looks like record-breaking temperatures and worsening extreme weather events. There is widespread business and public support for action as well as widespread acknowledgment that inaction will leave us increasingly exposed to social and economic disruption.
Strong leadership is vital. Whether we get carrots and sticks or both, industry needs a political consensus that policy arising from the Finkel Review process will stand the test of time and changes of government.
Procrastination is not a good option. It’s time to take responsibility for our past decade of avoidant politicking. Each day that goes by without policy settings that invite investment in large-scale renewables only makes the inevitable transition harder.

*Gerry Hueston is chairperson of the Climate Council and former BP president

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Al Gore: Australian Government Subsidising Coal Power Would Be ‘Crazy’

The Guardian

Former US vice president and climate change campaigner says providing funding for infrastructure to support Adani coal mine is 'just nuts'
Former US Vice President Al Gore says 'the world is turning away from coal'. Photograph: Brook Mitchell/Getty Images for Paramount Pictu
Any move by the Australian government to subsidise coal-fired power would be "crazy" and providing funding for infrastructure to support the Adani coal mine is "just nuts," former US vice president and climate change campaigner Al Gore has said.
"Globally, the world is moving rapidly away from subsidies to fossil fuels," he said. "It would be odd if Australia went in the opposite direction and subsidised coal. It's impolitic of me to say it, but it would be crazy."
The Adani Group's proposed $16bn Carmichael coal mine in Queensland's Galilee Basin, which is yet to get finance but has been promised $1bn from the Australian government to build a rail line to port, was particularly unwise, Gore said.
"The Adani mine doesn't have its financing, I hope it never gets its financing," he said. "It's not my place to meddle with your politics, but truly, this is nuts."
Gore made the comments at the end of a presentation to the Investor Group on Climate Change, in a Q&A with Guardian Australia editor Lenore Taylor.
It follows weeks of concerted lobbying by the Minerals Council of Australia, which has argued the federal government should consider introducing a reverse auction scheme to deploy dispatchable power into the grid, which would allow so-called "high-efficiency low-emissions" coal power stations to compete with wind and solar.
The auction could be designed in such a way to favour coal-fired power, despite wind and hydro power being cheaper.
On Wednesday, energy minister Josh Frydenberg said the government had no plans to build a new coal-fired power station but if the market supported it "then we will support that".
Without policy levers in favour of coal, Gore said the declining cost of both renewable energy and battery storage made it "now the dominant reality in energy markets".
"Most people assume that the coal industry is in a terminal decline," he said. "The market capitalisation of the global coal industry has declined … I think the figure is almost 90% in the last seven our eight years. It's quite dramatic. The world is turning away from coal."
Federal policy leadership was helpful and would provide additional certainty for investors, but it was not necessary, he said. Earlier, Gore said the United States was working towards its Paris Agreement targets through actions taken at a state and local level, despite US President Donald Trump opting out.
"And if there's another president elected, please God ... the new president within 30 days can come back in," he said.
Gore said he will encourage Australian premiers and chief ministers to make similar commitments at a meeting in Melbourne on Thursday, before the Council of Australian Governments energy meeting on Friday.
"As in the US, here in Australia many of the most important levers are in the hands of the state premiers and mayors. I think they do, particularly if they act together … have the ability to create much more certainty for investors."
Examples of that commitment could include a renewable energy target, such as the Victorian government's commitment to generating 40% of its electricity by renewables by 2025, or an emissions reduction target, such as Queensland's announcement on Tuesday of a zero net emissions target by 2050.
"If Queensland can do it then any state in Australia can," Gore said.

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Climate Change: Nearly 700 'Natural Thermometers' Demonstrate The World Is Warmer Than Its Ever Been

The IndependentIan Johnston

'You can only be smacked in the face by evidence so many times and not see some kind of pattern,' says scientist
Scientists have found evidence that wildfires, like this one near Clayton, California, have been getting worse because of climate change Reuters
Planet Earth is warmer than it has been for at least 2,000 years, according to a study that took its temperature from 692 different “natural thermometers” on every continent and ocean on the planet.
In the most comprehensive assessment of how the climate has changed over the period to date, researchers looked at a host of sources of historic information, including tree rings, ice cores, lake and sea sediments, corals, mineral deposits and written records.
What they found confirmed the famous “hockey stick” graph, showing an undulating, but broadly flat, line followed by a sharp uptick that begins at around 1900.
The only plausible explanation for this sudden change is fossil fuel emissions, which have increased the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from about 280 parts per million in the 19th century to more than 400 today.
The warming effect was predicted by the Nobel Prize-winning Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1895.
Writing in the journal Scientific Data, a team of nearly 100 researchers described how they had created a database of 692 records from 648 different locations in “all continental regions and major ocean basins”.
Some of these natural thermometers covered the entire 2,000-year period, with an average length of 760 years.
The original hockey stick graph, which spanned 1,000 years, was widely praised when it was published in the journal Nature 20 years ago, but also came under attack from climate change sceptics and deniers. Professor Michael Mann, one of the paper’s authors, was abused, made the subject of hostile investigations by US politicians, and even sent death threats.
The original 'hockey stick' graph, published in 1998, showed the global average temperature remains about the same from 1,000 years ago until a sharp rise in the 20th century (Mann et al)
In a blog post about the new study, one of researchers, Professor Julien Emile-Geay, wrote that it essentially confirmed the hockey stick graph was accurate.
“As a scientist, you have to go where the evidence takes you,” he said.
“You can only be smacked in the face by evidence so many times and not see some kind of pattern. (You will never guess: a HOCKEY STICK!).
“The hockey stick is alive and well. There is now so much data supporting this observation that it will take nothing short of a revolution of how we understand all paleoclimate proxies to overturn this pattern. So let me make this prediction: the hockey stick is here to stay.”
Mr Emile-Geay, of the University of Southern California, said any argument about the basic pattern of warming was over.
“In the coming years and decades, the scientific community will flesh out many more details about the climate of the past 2,000 years, the interactions between temperature and drought, their regional and local expressions, their physical causes, their impact on human civilizations, and many other fascinating research questions,” he said.
“But one thing won’t change: the 20th century will stick out like a sore thumb. The present rate of warming and, very likely, the temperature levels are exceptional in the past 2,000 years, perhaps even longer.
“The hockey stick is alive; long live the hockey stick. Climate denialists will have to find another excuse behind which to hide.”
While in the US there are leading politicians, including President Donald Trump and Lamar Smith, the chair of the House of Representatives’ Science, Space and Technology Committee, who have claimed climate change is a hoax or a plot to create a world government, the UK’s leading sceptics accept much of the scientific analysis of what has happened so far.
Lord Nigel Lawson, the former Conservative cabinet minister and founder of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, told a House of Lords’ committee hearing that carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas that was having “some effect” on the climate.
Instead, they tend to downplay the future effects with some describing themselves as “lukewarmists”.
Scientists say this makes the same mistake as those who confidently predict Armageddon. Instead, the future is uncertain, with computer models based on the laws of physics predicting anything from a reasonably “lukewarm” 1.5°C of warming to an “end-of-civilisation-as-we-know it” 5°C if carbon dioxide levels hit double the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million.
Floods destroyed eight bridges and ruined crops such as wheat, maize and peas in the Karimabad valley in northern Pakistan, a mountainous region with many glaciers. In many parts of the world, glaciers have been in retreat, creating dangerously large lakes that can cause devastating flooding when the banks break. Climate change can also increase rainfall in some areas, while bringing drought to others. Hira Ali
The Paris Agreement on climate change committed countries to trying to restrict global warming to below 2°C and as close to 1.5°C as possible. There has been nearly 1°C of warming attributed to human activity to date.
Mr Mann said the new study was “impressive”.
“The end result of course isn’t too surprising – they get a hockey stick-curve no matter how you slice the data,” he wrote in a direct message on Twitter.
“As if we needed it, [it is] further confirmatory evidence that the recent warming spike has no precedent as far back as we can go.
“Human activity is having an unprecedented impact on our climate.”

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