24/07/2017

Return Of The 'Big Dry' Points To Active And Early Fire Season Across The South

Fairfax

Weather patterns delivering an exceptionally dry winter across south-eastern Australia show little sign of breaking up, heightening concerns the coming fire season will be an early and active one.
Fire authorities won't formally release predictions for spring and summer until September. Wet periods in autumn, though, curbed hazard-reduction burning to half the year-earlier totals in NSW and curtailed it in Victoria.
Flammagenitus forms from bushfire smoke. The type of cloud was formerly known as a pyro-cumulus. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
"The next four to six weeks are going to be very important," said Ben Shepherd, an inspector and head of media at the NSW Rural Fire Service.
"Many of the agencies are looking for that opportunity to get out there and start those [hazard-reduction] burns again in earnest" before conditions turn too windy and warm, he said.
Authorities stress a significant rain event could yet push fire risks for the coming season back towards more typical levels but note that there is little sign of such a development.
High-pressure systems have dominated southern Australia, nudging rain-bearing systems south of the continent.
Saturday offered a clear illustration of the set-up. The bureau predicted almost the entire mainland of Australia would be dry. (See chart below.)
The skies have been clear with an unusually wide diurnal temperature range over many regions. Nights were marked by heavy frosts or cold making way for milder than average days.

Big dry
Barring some unexpected instability, July will join last month as among Australia's driest.
Nationally, last month was the second-driest June since standard data began in 1910 with rainfall barely a third of average, the Bureau of Meteorology said.
Victoria had its driest June, NSW was the driest in 15 years and the Murray Darling Basin posted its lowest rainfall totals since 1986.
"It very much seems to be centring on the border between Victoria and NSW," Richard Thornton, chief executive of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, said of the rainfall deficits.
Winter-to-date rainfall levels have been "very much below average" for most of southern Australia, bureau data shows. (See chart below).
'Back foot'
Fire authorities are keen to take advantage of the cool and dry conditions to ramp up controlled burns before windy and warmer days make such activities more risky.
Cyclone Debbie's aftermath brought heavy rain to much of the east coast in April, reducing opportunities for hazard-reduction burning. "That really put us on the back foot," Mr Shepherd said.
In a typical year about 56 per cent of controlled burns in NSW are conducted in autumn and 23 per cent in spring.
During autumn, the RFS treated 93,116 hectares to protect 23,171 properties. By area, the tally was less than half the previous autumn's 191,684 hectares involving 27,867 properties.
Forest Fire Management Victoria places less emphasis on the size of area burnt in its hazard-reduction program than the risk. During the year to June 2017, FFMVic crews conducted 351 burns over 113,172 hectares statewide.
"The wet winter and spring conditions proved difficult, however our prioritisation of burns based on risk has resulted in the statewide risk being maintained at 2015-16 levels," said Stephanie Rotarangi, the agency's chief fire officer.

Longer-term trends
The key influence behind this year's relatively dry winter is far to the south. A positive phase in the so-called Southern Annular Mode marks a poleward contraction of the westerly winds belt towards Antarctica.
As the bureau notes, such a phase marked the Millennium drought during the "big dry" from 1997-2010. High-pressure systems that would normally sit further north track across more southerly parts of Australia blocking rain-bearing cold fronts.
In June, average mean sea level pressure readings were at record highs for many parts of southern Australia, including all but one site in South Australia and all but three in Victoria.
As the bureau noted: "Mean sea level pressure over southern Australia has been increasing in winter over recent decades. This pattern is consistent with future climate change projections for the Australian region."
Dr Thornton of the Hazards CRC said that along with trends towards drier winters for southern Australia, warmer-than-average temperatures during July to September are also the new norm.
"It's almost locked in to have above-average temperatures from climate change," he said.
The bureau will update its three-month outlook this coming week. At its most recent projection, the agency said odds were strongly pointing to a drier-than-usual July to September for much of the south of the country. (See chart below.)

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Southern NSW Farmer Says Changing Climate Is Forcing Him To Move His Flock

ABC NewsAdrienne Francis

Mark Horan is a mixed livestock farmer in Braidwood, New South Wales. (ABC News: Mengyang Zhang)
A new climate change report has made some dire forecasts for the survival of threatened species and the future of farming in central and southern New South Wales.
The Hot, Dry and Deadly report by the state's peak environmental organisation, the Nature Conservation Council, is based on peer-reviewed scientific data on the impact of global warming.
It predicts that by 2090 the Southern Tablelands will face temperature increases of nearly four degrees, combined with an almost 50 per cent reduction in annual rainfall.
Some farmers have disagreed with the gloomy prognosis for the impacts upon primary production, citing the success of ongoing innovation
But for mixed livestock farmer Mark Horan, managing a changing climate is business as usual.
Over the past 30 years he has observed a swing from winter to summer dominant rainfall on his farm Bedervale, which is located on the outskirts of Braidwood.
"June has has been very dry, we haven't had good rain for seven to eight weeks," Mr Horan said.
"Where we would normally expect reasonably good winter rain, that's been lacking for a number of years."
Mark Horan says seasonal changes forced him to purchase another property. (ABC News: Mengyang Zhang)
The deteriorating conditions prompted him to move his entire flock of 400 Merino sheep from Bedervale at Braidwood to a new property at Yass, which has a different climate, vastly reducing his feed bill.
"So when things are a bit tight here at the end of the winter, there should be five or six weeks growth over at the other farm."
But he is having to feed hay to his remaining herd of 400 cattle at the Braidwood property.

'Issue for being able to grow food', report suggests
It is farms like Mr Horan's in the Southern and Central Tablelands of New South Wales that could be among the worst affected by climate change, according to the council's report.
"Wheat production is expected to decline by about 11 per cent and sheep meat production by about 13 per cent and beef production by about 3 per cent," Nature Conservation Council campaign director Daisy Barham said.
"So this isn't just an issue for people who care about nature, it's an issue for being able to grow the food that we urgently need as well," she said.
Daisy Barham is the Nature Conservation Council's campaign director. (ABC News: Adrienne Francis)
 The council warned that without a reduction in carbon emissions, the threatened species and sensitive ecosystems could be pushed beyond the brink.
"Many scientists predict that we will lose the koala from many parts of NSW in the next 30 years if we don't act on climate change and the many other threats that they are facing," Ms Barham said.
The council said the ACT was leading the way on renewable energy and it is calling on the New South Wales Government and other community leaders to boost investment in renewable energy.
Mr Horan says too many environmental restraints and regulations could have a detrimental impact on people in the agricultural industry. (ABC News: Mengyang Zhang)
In 2016, clean energy contributed 19.6 per cent to the total energy generated by NSW, according to the State Minister's office.
Mr Horan said he believes the State Government is close to getting the right balance between renewable energy and coal-fired electricity generation.
"We have only now just got to the point where we don't have eight-hour blackouts and I don't think anyone in the country wants to go back to that," he said.
"I can see that there should be concern but from my view, management on my farm means that we can mitigate a lot of that risk."
But there is agreement over the need for continued investment in climate research.
"What could make everybody in farming make better decisions is accurate weather forecasting," Mr Horan said.

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Hot Dry, And Deadly: Impacts Of Climate Change On Nature In NSW

 Nature Conservation Council of NSW


We have so much to lose
Climate change will have profoundly negative impacts on nature in NSW if we do not urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions. NSW has a stunning variety of species and ecosystems, with outstanding rainforests, eucalypt forests and woodlands, grasslands, wetlands, coastal heaths, alpine habitats and arid shrub lands. These ecosystems are home to more than 900 animal species, almost 4,700 plants species, and countless insect and fungi species. Since European settlement, native ecosystems and species in NSW have declined significantly. Almost 40% of native vegetation has been cleared, and what's left is highly degraded. Only 9% is in good condition.
More than 100 species have become extinct since 1788, and over 1000, including 60% of all mammal species, are now threatened with extinction. Key threats are land clearing, habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and changed fire regimes. Human-induced climate change has now been added as a potent part of the mix.

Introduction | Forests | Eucalypt Woodlands | Grasslands | Alpine  | Rivers & Wetlands | Coastal Regions | Marine | Sydney Bushland | Agricultural Lands | What's Driving Climate Change | Conclusions | Full Report
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Forests
Most of the forests in NSW occur in the wetter, more fertile regions between the coast and the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range. Trees are the dominant feature of both forests and woodlands, but in forests they generally grow taller and closer together, providing canopy cover from 30% in open forests to 100% in rainforests. These ecosystems are home to an extraordinary array of birds and animals, including iconic species like the koala, powerful owl, greater glider, and spotted quoll.
Species spotlight
Koalas were so abundant last century they were the basis of a vigorous fur trade that in 1924 saw two million pelts exported from the eastern states of Australia to Europe. Today there are fewer than 36,000 koalas left in NSW, and all but a few populations are declining. Between 1990 and 2010, their numbers in NSW plunged 33%.

Regions affected
Coastal regions, Tablelands, Blue Mountains, Snowy Mountains, Western Slopes

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Eucalypt woodlands
Eucalypt woodlands are iconic Australian ecosystems found in an arc from subtropical Queensland to Tasmania, and west to southeast South Australia. While they are found in many areas of eastern NSW, including the coastal and alpine zones, they mostly occur in the wheat-and-sheep belt west of the Great Dividing Range. Trees are the dominant feature of both woodlands and forests, but in woodlands the trees are generally shorter and stand further apart, providing canopy cover ranging from 10% to 30%.
Species spotlight
The regent honeyeater is a small, spectacularly coloured bird with mottled black-and-yellow feathers and a short, curved beak. It lives in temperate woodlands and open forests. Regent honeyeaters can travel large distances on complex migratory courses governed by the flowering of the eucalypt species that they depend on for nectar. The birds were common in woodlands across eastern Australia but there are now only three breeding regions left, including Capertee Valley in the Central West and the Bundarra-Barraba region on the Northern Tablelands.

Regions affected
Northwest, Northern Tablelands, Central Tablelands, Central West, Orana Region, Riverina, South Coast

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Grasslands
Grasslands are found in many regions, from the moist coastal and alpine areas to the hot, semiarid interior of western NSW. These ecosystems are dominated by large perennial tussock grasses, with broad-leaved herbs growing between the tussocks. Many animals forage in grasslands, then shelter in nearby woodlands or shrublands.
Species spotlight
The plains-wanderer is a small, quail-like bird that lives in sparse grasslands in the southwest of NSW. The bird stands 12-15cm tall and weighs up to 95g. Both sexes have yellow legs and bills, and fawncoloured feathers with fine black rosettes. It was once common in semi-arid grasslands on hard red-brown soils in the southwest of the state, but since the 1920s its numbers have crashed and it is now considered extinct in much of its former range.

Regions Affected
Northwest, Southwest, Monaro And Snowy Mountains

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Alpine Regions
The NSW alpine region includes Australia's highest peak, Mount Kosciuszko, and is characterised by snow-capped mountain ranges, windswept snowgum forests, heathlands, and chilly mountain streams. The region spans 428,832 hectares of the Snowy Mountains in the southeast of the state and is a major tourist destination, attracting more than 1.3 million domestic and international tourists each year for snow sports, hiking, mountain bike riding, and camping in the warmer months. It is also the last refuge for a range of alpine plant and animal communities at altitudes above 1100m, including snow-patch and groundwater commun-ities such as the short alpine herbfields, bogs, and fens.
Species spotlight
The mountain pygmy-possum is a small marsupial that occurs only in the Australian alps. It is listed as endangered, with fewer than 2,600 individuals left in an area of about 10sq/km in Kosciuszko National Park. As moth populations decline in autumn, it supplements its diet with fruits and seeds before hibernating for up to seven months until the moths return.

Regions affected
Snowy Mountains, Mid-North Coast, Ulladulla, South Coast, Central West

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Rivers & Wetlands
Only a small fraction of aquatic ecosystems in inland areas is within the banks of the main channel of the river. More than 90% occurs across floodplains that in the flat western districts may stretch for kilometres after heavy rains, once every 10 years or so. The irregular pulse of flood and drought in inland NSW drives the ecology of the almost 8000km of river and 4.5 million hectares of lakes, billabongs, lagoons, swamps and waterholes. Climate change will further affect wetlands and the rivers that supply water to them through changes to rainfall and increased temperature and evaporation.
Species spotlight
The iconic river red gum is the most widely distributed tree in Australia. In NSW it is most common along rivers and wetlands where it has formed large forests. These ecosystems provide habitat for yellowbellied gliders, squirrel gliders, magpie geese, glossy-black cockatoos and a host of other threatened species. Many of these forests have declined significantly over the past 50 years because of land clearing, logging, increased salinity, and less frequent flooding as many large dams now capture and store peak flows that would have watered these forests.

Regions affected
Northwest, Southwest, Central West, Murray Basin

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Coastal Regions
The 1900km coastline of NSW contains some of Australia's most stunning scenery and diverse ecosystems, from tall eucalypt forests, dunes, swamps, and saltmarshes, to tidal lakes, estuaries, beaches, and rocky reefs. With more than 80% of the state's population living on the strip between the Great Dividing Range and the Tasman Sea, more people will experience the environmental effects of climate change in these regions than elsewhere. Air temperatures are forecast to rise by more than 3°C by 2090 under a high-emissions scenario. This will result in more frequent and longer heat waves and more extreme bushfires that will change the distribution and abundance of species and coastal ecosystems.
Species spotlight
Saltmarshes are found in the upper coastal intertidal zone where there is no strong wave action. They are dominated by stands of salttolerant plants that trap and bind sediments. Crabs, snails, bats, gastropods and even swamp wallabies are part of this complex ecosystem. Saltmarshes play a critical role as nurseries for fish and other marine animals. More than 70% of all fish in Australia's southeast, as well as many other marine species, depend on salt marshes at some stage in their lifecycle.

Regions affected
North Coast, Mid-North Coast, Central Coast, Sydney, Illawarra, South Coast

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Marine
NSW coastal waters support an extraordinary array of species, from whales and seahorses to kelp forests and seagrass meadows. In the Sydney region where the warm northern and cooler southern waters mix, there occurs almost 580 fish species, more than in the whole of the British Isles. Marine ecosystems are under threat from coastal development, nutrient run-off, plastics, overfishing, and invasive species. Now they face severe impacts from climate change.
Species spotlight
Seagrass meadows are among the most productive ecosystems on earth, storing more carbon per hectare than even the Amazon rainforests. Commonly mistaken for algae, seagrasses evolved from land plants to live entirely in seawater, anchoring their roots in the sandy or muddy bottoms of bays that provide shelter from strong waves that damage the plants. Seagrass meadows are a critical part of the marine ecosystem, providing food for turtles and fish, habitat for crabs, molluscs, and sponges, and acting as nurseries for many marine species.

Regions affected
Northwest, Mid-North Coast, Central Coast, Sydney Coast, Illawarra, South Coast

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Sydney bushland 
Sydney is a region of exceptional natural beauty and home to a wide array of ecosystems, from coastal wetlands and open woodlands, to tall forests, upland swamps, and Banksia heathlands. In the estuaries and coastal sandplains, there are fresh and saltwater wetlands. On the sandstone plateaus, habitats range from dry sclerophyll forest to heath. After more than 200 years of agricultural and urban development, most of Sydney's bushland and its native animals have been lost, although much remains, especially on the city's fringes.
Species spotlight
Cumberland Plain Woodland existed across 125,000 hectares of clay soils of Western Sydney from Kurrajong to Picton and was home to more than 450 species of plants and 60 native mammal species, including gliders, brown antechinus, and the New Holland mouse. The woodland canopy is dominated by grey box, narrow-leafed ironbark, thin-leaved stringybark, and spotted gum, while the understorey is generally grassy with herbs and patches of shrubs. Over the past 200 years, these woodlands have been reduced to a few fragmented stands by farming, industry, and housing.

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Agricultural lands 
Agricultural production is included here because threats to farm viability undermine the ability of landholders to be good environmental stewards. The NSW farm sector not only provides food and fibre for millions of people, it manages about 80% of the state, including much wildlife habitat. NSW Department of Primary Industries warns there is a "high" risk that industries, infrastructure, and regional economies will be disrupted by climate change as many crops currently grown cease to be viable in the same location.
Species spotlight
Wheat is the main crop grown in NSW, with the 2013-14 annual harvest more than double the combined volume of barley and sugar cane, the two next biggest. The 6.6 million tonnes harvested in NSW that year made up about a quarter of the national crop, and was worth almost $2 billion. Australia's wheat farmers are possibly the most efficient in the world, with yields trebling last century until the 1990s, when they leveled out.

Regions affected
All regions

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What's driving climate change?
Burning fossil fuels, land clearing, agriculture, and waste all contribute to climate pollution warming the planet, driving extreme weather, and pushing species over the edge to extinction.
NSW releases about four times more greenhouse pollution per person than the global average, and three times the European average. This pollution is accelerating climate change, but there is a lot a lot we can do to reduce it. Our pollution is a direct result of our heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation.
More than 80% of the state's greenhouse pollution comes from burning coal, oil, and gas, while agriculture, industrial processes, and waste make up smaller portions. In addition to our domestic emissions, our coal exports make a huge contribution to global warming. This makes NSW one of the strongest drivers of climate change in the world.

What will it take?
Globally, more than 190 countries have agreed to reduce greenhouse pollution restrict warming below 2°C, and ideally below 1.5°C. To do our fair share in meeting this goal, NSW needs to reduce emissions to zero by 2040 at the latest, and retire our coal-fired power stations by 2030.

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Conclusions and Actions 

New South Wales is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Our forests, wetlands and coastline are fragile. They are places of natural beauty, of refuge for wildlife, and our life support system.
Despite its fragility, nature is resilient and given a chance, will still have time to secure a bright future. But we must act now.
We have the technology and abundant wind and sun to transform our energy system. In just six hours, the sun gives our deserts more energy than the entire world uses in a year. Harvesting a small portion of that energy just makes sense.
Our farmers and land managers are already feeling the impacts of more extreme weather and changed rainfall. We know how to manage our land to store carbon and boost the resilience of ecosystems in the face of climate change, so, let's get on with it!
Acting on climate change will take a whole-of society response lead by our governments. We are specifically calling on the NSW Government to reform our energy system and upgrade our land management regimes to reduce our contribution to climate change.
We call upon the NSW Government to:

Transform our energy system
  • Source all our power from sun, wind, and water by 2030.
  • Phase out coal and gas-fired power.
  • Help affected workers and communities prepare for jobs with a future.
  • Make sure the transition is fair so everyone, everywhere has access to clean, renewable energy.
Restore our land
  • End native forest logging on public land.
  • Protect native forests, woodlands, and grasslands from inappropriate land clearing.
  • Rule out new coal mines and gas fields in NSW.
Let's act on climate change now

Sign the Repower petition