Lethal Heating: 08/04/17

04/08/2017

Climate Change To Cause Humid Heatwaves That Will Kill Even Healthy People

The Guardian - Damian Carrington

If warming is not tackled, levels of humid heat that can kill within hours will affect millions across south Asia within decades, analysis finds

‘Unfair’: poor farmers are most at risk from future humid heatwaves but have contributed little to the emissions that drive climate change. Photograph: NurPhoto/via Getty Images

Extreme heatwaves that kill even healthy people within hours will strike parts of the Indian subcontinent unless global carbon emissions are cut sharply and soon, according to new research.
Even outside of these hotspots, three-quarters of the 1.7bn population – particularly those farming in the Ganges and Indus valleys – will be exposed to a level of humid heat classed as posing “extreme danger” towards the end of the century.
The new analysis assesses the impact of climate change on the deadly combination of heat and humidity, measured as the “wet bulb” temperature (WBT). Once this reaches 35C, the human body cannot cool itself by sweating and even fit people sitting in the shade will die within six hours.
The revelations show the most severe impacts of global warming may strike those nations, such as India, whose carbon emissions are still rising as they lift millions of people out of poverty.
“It presents a dilemma for India between the need to grow economically at a fast pace, consuming fossil fuels, and the need to avoid such potentially lethal impacts,” said Prof Elfatih Eltahir, at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the US who led the new study. “To India, global climate change is no longer abstract – it is about how to save potentially vulnerable populations.”

Heatwaves are already a major risk in South Asia, with a severe episode in 2015 leading to 3,500 deaths, and India recorded its hottest ever day in 2016 when the temperature in the city of Phalodi, Rajasthan, hit 51C. Another new study this week linked the impact of climate change to the suicides of nearly 60,000 Indian farmers.
Eltahir said poor farmers are most at risk from future humid heatwaves, but have contributed very little to the emissions that drive climate change. The eastern part of China, another populous region where emissions are rising, is also on track for extreme heatwaves and this risk is currently being examined by the scientists.

Villagers cover up in wet clothes as they walk back home after cooling off in the Daya river in Bhubaneswar, east India. Photograph: NurPhoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Their previous research, published in 2015, showed the Gulf in the Middle East, the heartland of the global oil industry, will also suffer heatwaves beyond the limit of human survival if climate change is unchecked, particularly Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and coastal cities in Iran.
The new work, published in the journal Science Advances, used carefully selected computer climate models that accurately simulate the past climate of the South Asia to conduct a high resolution analysis of the region, down to 25km.
The scientists found that under a business-as-usual scenario, where carbon emissions are not curbed, 4% of the population would suffer unsurvivable six-hour heatwaves of 35C WBT at least once between 2071-2100. The affected cities include Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh and Patna in Bihar, each currently home to more than two million people.
Vast areas of South Asia – covering 75% of the area’s population – would endure at least one heatwave of 31C WBT. This is already above the level deemed by the US National Weather Service to represent “extreme danger”, with its warning stating: “If you don’t take precautions immediately when conditions are extreme, you may become seriously ill or even die.”
However, if emissions are reduced roughly in line with the global Paris climate change agreement, there would be no 35C WBT heatwaves and the population affected by the 31C WBT events falls to 55%, compared to the 15% exposed today.
The analysis also showed that the dangerous 31C WBT level would be passed once every two years for 30% of the population – more than 500 million people – if climate change is unchecked, but for only 2% of the population if the Paris goals are met. “The problem is very alarming but the intensity of the heatwaves can be reduced considerably if global society takes action,” said Eltahir.

Distribution of maximum wet bulb temperature (WBT) from 1976-2005 (B), from 2071-2100 with 2.25C of warming (C), from 2071-2100 with 4.5C of warming (D). WBT of more than 31C is considered extremely dangerous and over 35C is fatal within hours. Photograph: Courtesy of AAAS

South Asia is particularly at risk from these extreme heatwaves because the annual monsoon brings hot and humid air on to the land. The widespread use of irrigation adds to the risk, because evaporation of the water increases humidity. The projected extremes are higher in the Gulf in the Middle East, but there they mostly occur over the gulf itself, rather than on land as in South Asia.
The limit of survivability, at 35C WBT, was almost reached in Bandar Mahshahr in Iran in July 2015, where 46C heat combined with 50% humidity. “This suggests the threshold may be breached sooner than projected,” said the researchers.
Prof Christoph Schär, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich, Switzerland, and who was not involved in the study, said: “This is a solid piece of work, which will likely shape our perception of future climate change. In my view, the results are of concern and alarming.”
The report demonstrates the urgency of measures to both cut emissions and help people cope better with such heatwaves, he said. There are uncertainties in the modelling – which Schär noted could underestimate or overestimate the impacts – as representing monsoon climates can be difficult and historical data is relatively scarce.
Prof Chris Huntingford, at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, said: “If given just one word to describe climate change, then ‘unfairness’ would be a good candidate. Raised levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are expected to cause deadly heatwaves for much of South Asia. Yet many of those living there will have contributed little to climate change.”

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Suicides Of Nearly 60,000 Indian Farmers Linked To Climate Change, Study Claims

The Guardian - Michael Safi

Rising temperatures and the resultant stress on India’s agricultural sector may have contributed to increase in suicides over the past 30 years, research shows

Farmers from Tami Nadu demonstrate in Delhi with what they say are the bones of farmers who committed suicide because of a crippling drought and high debt. Photograph: Julian Chung for the Guardian

Climate change may have contributed to the suicides of nearly 60,000 Indian farmers and farm workers over the past three decades, according to new research that examines the toll rising temperatures are already taking on vulnerable societies.
Illustrating the extreme sensitivity of the Indian agricultural industry to spikes in temperature, the study from the University of California, Berkeley, found an increase of just 1C on an average day during the growing season was associated with 67 more suicides.
An increase of 5C on any one day was associated with an additional 335 deaths, the study published in the journal PNAS on Monday found. In total, it estimates that 59,300 agricultural sector suicides over the past 30 years could be attributed to warming.
Temperature increases outside the growing season showed no significant impact on suicide rates, suggesting stress on the agriculture industry was the source of the increase in suicides.
Also supporting the theory was that rainfall increases of as little as 1cm each year were associated with an average 7% drop in the suicide rate. So beneficial was the strong rainfall that suicide rates were lower for the two years that followed, researcher Tamma Carleton found.
Farm sector suicides in India decreased last year, but remain at epidemic levels in some states and are a source of immense pressure on legislators.
One drought-hit state, Maharashtra, reported 852 farmer suicides in the first four months of this year, while in 2015, one of the worst years on record, about 12,602 farmers killed themselves across India. Overall, more than 300,000 farmers and farm workers have killed themselves in the country since 1995.
In recent months, a site in central Delhi has been strewn with evidence of the despair felt by the Indian agricultural sector.
Skulls and bones said to belong to farmers who killed themselves have been piled at Jantar Mantar, within walking distance of the Indian parliament.
They were brought to Delhi by farmers from Tamil Nadu, a state suffering its worst drought in 140 years, which the protesters claim has triggered hundreds of suicides in the past months.
Worse than the parched crops were the bank loans that loomed over many farming families, said Rani Radhakrishnan, one of the protesters.
In February, owing 80,000 rupees (£945), her husband stood outside his bank branch in the city of Trichy, and consumed a toxic concoction. He died on the spot.

Tamil Nadu is suffering its worst drought in 140. Protestors claim it has triggered hundreds of suicides. Photograph: Julian Chung for the Guardian

“He had talked about things like this [suicide] happening with others, but never about doing it himself,” she said.
The next week, Radhakrishnan and her daughter-in-law stood outside the bank brandishing wads of rupees. “We told them, we have repaid your money, now will you give us back my husband’s life?” she said.
Last year the Indian government launched a £1bn insurance scheme to protect against crop failures and try to halve farmer and farm worker suicides.
Maharashtra, Punjab and the country’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, have all passed farm-debt waivers at enormous cost to the public purse to appease the demands of the agricultural sector, which commands strong political sway.
Carleton said her research showed little evidence Indian farmers were changing their practices to accommodate rising temperatures.
“Without interventions that help families adapt to a warmer climate, it’s likely we will see a rising number of lives lost to suicide as climate change worsens in India,” Carleton said.
The true suicide rate was probably higher, she added, because deaths are generally underreported in India and, until 2014, suicide was considered a criminal offence, discouraging honest reports.
“The tragedy is unfolding today,” she said. “This is not a problem for future generations. This is our problem, right now.”

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More Climate Scientists Urgently Needed For Australia, Academy Says

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Australia's climate research is in "urgent" need of dozens more scientists to help prepare farmers, businesses and governments for the expected worsening effects of global warming, the Australian Academy of Science said.
The academy's assessment, prompted by last year's decision by CSIRO to axe as many as 100 of 140 climate scientists, identified 77 extra research positions that should be created in the next four years.

What drives heatwaves in Australia
The ins and outs of this sweltering weather phenomenon, as explained by Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick. Produced in association with UNSWTV.

Australia now has about 419 climate researchers, or less than 1 per cent of the 50,000 in public science. The additional tally includes 15 staff announced by the Turnbull government last year for the CSIRO after a public outcry forced the agency's chief executive Larry Marshall to reverse most of the planned cuts.
"Climate change is affecting and will affect every business and every bit of the environment in Australia," said Trevor McDougall, an academy fellow and professor at the University of NSW, who led the review.
Professor McDougall cited uncertainty over how a warming climate will alter rainfall and evaporation in the Murray Darling Basin, the country's biggest food bowl.
Only Australians would prioritise such a topic, he said: "That's an issue models in the northern hemisphere won't even look at."
Australia's already highly variable climate – particularly for rainfall – made it critical for the economy and national security that the community understood how conditions were likely to change in the future. With much of the population living near the coast, those risks are also well worth knowing, the scientists said.
"Coastal inundation is a complex issue which looks at the interaction between sea levels, which are increasing, storm intensity, which is also likely to change within a warming planet, and also the structure of the coastline," said Graeme Pearman, a former CSIRO climate chief and another author of the report.

Australia's climate is changing and more research is urgently needed, the Australian Academy of Science said. Photo: Jessica Shapiro

"It's highly specific and it's not something you can use in a global model – you have to have detailed information about particular areas of the coastline."
Josh Frydenberg, the environment and energy minister, said the review would be "an important input" for the work of the government's National Climate Science Advisory Committee.

Farming south-east of Perth, an area which has seen some of the largest drops in winter rainfall in Australia. Global models may not be applicable to local situations. Photo: Jessica Shapiro

He said the report noted Australia's "substantial climate science capability" and "well funded and supported" climate science infrastructure.
The Turnbull Government continues to make "a significant financial investment" in the field, including the new CSIRO Climate Science Centre in Hobart with 40 staff and a $37 million investment in long-term climate science monitoring capability, he said.

CSIRO Chief Larry Marshall was forced to limit the number of climate science job cuts after a public outcry at home and abroad. Photo: Louise Kennerley

In addition, the government is spending $23.9 million on a climate change hub as part of its National Environmental Science Program, and has committed $255 million as part of the Australian Antarctic Strategy, some of which will be spent on climate research.

Capability gaps
Of the 77 new positions, 33 should be created in climate modelling, the Academy report said.
A shortage of computer scientists and software engineers had become "particularly acute in the past few years as the complexity and size of climate models has continued to increase".
"In terms of adaptation, you need to have answers at the farm level or at least the council level, rather than [just] the state level," Professor McDougall said.
The team building Australia's main weather and climate model, known as ACCESS, was only "a small fraction of the size of groups building equivalent models" in other regions, the report argued.
Other priority areas include micrometeorology and boundary-layer dynamics, as well as multi-year forecasting to pick up variability across years including identifying emerging El Nino or La Nina events in the Pacific.
The report also noted the short-term nature of many contracts in the field, particularly among university climate researchers.
It also called on the federal government to extend funding for the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre and its 26 full-time staff beyond 2019 when its current funding runs out.
It also recommended considering a dedicated climate centre to co-ordinate national funding and reduce time and money now spent on writing research applications.
The Bureau of Meteorology could be one home for such a centre but the CSIRO – given its multidisciplinary breadth – was "the obvious place" even after the recent push to cut staff, Professor McDougall said.
"[We] shouldn't be swayed by the whims of the current CEO [Dr Marshall], as CEOs come and go," Professor McDougall said.
The report did not put a price of the extra staff and centre. But with about 100 people potentially needed, and the cost per scientist in the order of $200,000 a year, the cost would be about $20 million.

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