07/08/2017

Snowy Retreat: Climate Change Puts Australia's Ski Industry On A Downhill Slope

Fairfax - 

Australia's ski resorts face the prospect of a long downhill run as a warming climate reduces snow depth, cover and duration. The industry's ability to create artificial snow will also be challenged, scientists say.
Resorts are also going to become more reliant on big snow dumps such as this weekend's blizzard – after a poor start to the season – as the frequency of smaller, top-up snowfalls diminish.
Thredbo's looking good for now but the longer term outlook is less appealing. Photo: Andrew Meares
A snow retreat has been observed for half a century, with rising temperatures rather than reduced precipitation to blame, according to a major CSIRO-Bureau of Meteorology report. Under high greenhouse gas emissions pathway, snow at lower-elevation sites such as Mt Buffalo could all but disappear by 2050.
Warming springs have led to stark impacts at the end of the ski season. Early October snow depths fell 30 per cent during the 2000-13 period compared with 1954-99, a separate study in 2015 found.
The best snow dump of the season is expected over the weekend. Photo: Karl Gray
Snow is a "threshold variable". A slight temperature rise can turn snowflakes into rain that washes away, rather than adds to, snow cover.
That's why all climate projections point in one direction, says Tom Remenyi, a researcher at the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. It's both "encouraging and terrifying" that observations have matched models, giving researchers confidence about their bleak predictions, he said.
Reduced average snow depth at Spencers Creek in the Snowy Mountains.
'Step change'
"What we're fearing is that at some point, it's not going to really snow that much any more. There's going to be a step change," Dr Remenyi said.
Gerard Rampal, a scientific officer with Snowy Hydro, treks to gauge the snow depth level at Spencers Creek. Photo: Andrew Meares
"The models say the paradigm shift will happen in the next 10-20 years."
Those blasted in this weekend's snow storms might wonder if snow will be in short supply, with as much as a metre expected for some resorts.
As few as 2600 mountain pygmy possums remain in the wild. Photo: Ken Irwin
Sonya Fiddes, a researcher at Melbourne University's Australian-German Climate and Energy College who led a study on Australian snow trends, says that big dumps will still happen but warmer air and follow-up rains means the snow "probably won't stick around".
"The projected trends are for declining rainfall for south-eastern Australia, and an increase in extreme events," Ms Fiddes said.
Winter wonderland as snow hits NSW highlands
IMAGE GALLERY
Dr Remenyi concurs, noting models point to a 20 per cent drop in precipitation by the end of the century. Alpine summers may collect more rainfall – in fewer, larger events – but other seasons will see a decline.
The Victorian government is preparing a report in the future of alpine communities and the ski industry later this year.
NSW is working with the University of NSW to assess changing climate and snowmaking conditions, with research due out late this year or early 2018.

Industry view
Colin Hackworth, chief executive of the Australian Ski Areas Association, said the $1.5 billion industry has long recognised "if you have no snow, you have no business". Investments in snowmaking dates from the 1980s.
Popular resorts such as Mt Buller in Victoria have managed to extend operational days from about 100 in the 1970s to 106 in a typical year now, even with less natural snow. Diversification has also brought in "snow tourists", with many visitors just heading to the mountains to seek the white stuff rather than to ski or snowboard, he says.
"The industry is remarkably resilient," Mr Hackworth said. "It's a mature industry but it's growing every year."
Nor are resorts denying global warming is serious. Thredbo in NSW recently hosted a Protect Our Winters event "to raise awareness of the impact of climate change on our mountain environment".
And Vail Resorts, which operates Perisher, calls climate change "one of the most significant challenges facing every country, every business and every person on our planet". It aims for a zero environmental footprint by 2030.
Challenges, though, are only likely to intensify. Snow guns are becoming less efficient as humidity rises, reduce output of artificial snow by as much as 70 per cent as they ice up, Dr Remenyi said.
New "snow factories" have been introduced to Mt Buller and Mt Selwyn in Victoria, and more are likely. They create ice shavings with longer durability than gun-fired snow.
But warming temperatures will raise costs to maintain artificial snow cover, Dr Remenyi said. A study he helped write on the potential impact of climate change on Victoria's resorts found that "by 2020- 2030 conditions suitable for snowmaking are projected to decline substantially".
Expected reduction in snow-making hours at key Victorian resorts.
'Fragile ecology'
And as the NSW Nature Conservation Council notes in a new study on the effects of a warming planet, impacts in alpine regions aren't restricted to humans' winter pastimes.
The endangered pygmy possum, for instance, has had its range shrunk to a little as 10 square kilometres.
"The wildlife that lives in the Australia snowfields are at the front line of global warming because they are so sensitive to rising temperatures and changed snowfall patterns," Kate Smolski, council chief executive, said.
"If deep, long-lasting snow cover disappears, the fragile ecology of snowfields will unravel because the plants and animals that live there have nowhere else to go."

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Planet Has Just 5% Chance Of Reaching Paris Climate Goal, Study Says

The Guardian - 

Researchers find that economic, emissions and population trends point to very small chance Earth will avoid warming more than 2C by century’s end
Environmental activists protest Donald Trump’s decision to exit the Paris climate accords, which set a goal of avoiding warming beyond 2C. Photograph: Scott Olson/Getty Images
There is only a 5% chance that the Earth will avoid warming by at least 2C come the end of the century, according to new research that paints a sobering picture of the international effort to stem dangerous climate change.
Global trends in the economy, emissions and population growth make it extremely unlikely that the planet will remain below the 2C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement in 2015, the study states.
The Paris accord, signed by 195 countries, commits to holding the average global temperature to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels and sets a more aspirational goal to limit warming to 1.5C. This latter target is barely plausible, the new research finds, with just a 1% chance that temperatures will rise by less than 1.5C.
“We’re closer to the margin than we think,” said Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington academic who led the research, published in Nature Climate Change. “If we want to avoid 2C, we have very little time left. The public should be very concerned.”
Governments settled on the 2C threshold partly through political expediency but also because scientists have warned of severe consequences from sea level rise, drought, heatwaves and social unrest should the temperature rise beyond this.
Such risks have been underscored by a separate study, also released on Monday, that shows unabated climate change will cause around 60,000 deaths globally in 2030 and 260,000 deaths by 2100. The study, by the University of North Carolina, found that rising temperatures will exacerbate air pollutants that will particularly threaten those with existing conditions.
According to the University of Washington study, there is a 90% likelihood that temperatures will rise between 2C and 4.9C by 2100. This would put the world in the mid-range warming scenarios mapped out by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It negates the most optimistic outcome as well as the worst case, which would see temperatures climb nearly 6C beyond the pre-industrial era.
Rather than look at how greenhouse gases will influence temperature, the new research analyzed the past 50 years of trends in world population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and carbon intensity, which is the amount of carbon dioxide emitted for each dollar of economic activity.
After building a statistical model covering a range of emissions scenarios, the researchers found that carbon intensity will be a crucial factor in future warming. Technological advances are expected to cut global carbon intensity by 90% over the course of the century, with sharp declines in China and India – two newly voracious consumers of energy. However, this decline still will not be steep enough to avoid breaching the 2C limit.
The world’s population is expected to grow to about 11 billion people by 2100, but the research found that this will have a relatively small impact upon temperatures as much of this growth will take place in sub-Saharan Africa, which is a minor contributor of greenhouse gas emissions.
It has long been acknowledged that emissions cuts promised under the the Paris agreement would not be sufficient to avoid 2C warming. However, it is hoped that periodic reviews of commitments will result in more severe reductions.
Donald Trump’s pledge to remove the US, the world’s second-largest emitter, from the accord has cast a large shadow over these ambitions.
“Even if the 2C target isn’t met, action is very important,” said Raftery. “The more the temperature increases, the worse the impacts will be.
“We would warn against any tendency to use our results to say that we won’t avoid 2C, and so it’s too late to do anything. On the contrary, avoiding the higher temperature increases that our model envisages is even more important, and also requires urgent action.”
Raftery acknowledged that a breakthrough technology could “dramatically” change the outlook but noted that major advances of the past 50 years, such as the computer, robotics, hybrid cars, the internet and electronic fuel injection, have improved carbon efficiency steadily at around 2% a year, rather than in huge jumps.
Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University who was not involved in the study, said the research’s conclusions were “reasonable” but said it was difficult to assign a precise probability to future temperature rises.
“I agree that staying below 2C and 1.5C are unlikely and very, very unlikely, respectively,” he said. “But this research gives a false sense of rigor. Tomorrow someone could invent a carbon-free energy source that everyone adopts.
“If you look at technology adoption and action taken on the ozone layer and acid rain, it’s clear these things can change faster than people predict.”
Dessler said the falling cost of renewable energy would be a major factor in reducing emissions but further impetus would be needed through new actions such as a price on carbon.
“It’s like you’re driving and about to collide with the car in front of you,” he said. “You want to hit the brakes as fast as you can. The later you wait, the more painful it’s going to be.”
John Sterman, an academic at the MIT Sloan Sustainability Initiative, said the research was an “urgent call to action”. MIT research has shown that emissions cuts in the Paris agreement would stave off around 1C of temperature increase by 2100 – findings misrepresented by Trump when he announced the US departure from the pact.
Sterman said the US must “dramatically speed the deployment of renewable energy and especially energy efficiency. Fortunately, renewables, storage and other technologies are already cheaper than fossil energy in many places and costs are falling fast.
“More aggressive policies are urgently needed, but this study should not be taken as evidence that nothing can be done.”

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Warming Limit Of 1.2 Degrees Needed To Save Great Barrier Reef: Expert Panel

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Australia and the rest of the world must keep global temperature increases to 1.2 degrees - more than promised at the Paris climate talks - if the Great Barrier Reef's biodiversity is not going to deteriorate further, a panel led by former chief scientist Ian Chubb says.
The report by a panel of 15 scientists also called for the urgent revision of the reef's Plan to 2050 to account for "inexorable global warming".

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On Friday, federal and state environment ministers including federal minister Josh Frydenberg agreed in Melbourne to bring forward a review of the plan to start immediately rather than next year as had been planned.
In a separate report prepared by the Reef Advisory Committee, the Queensland Resources Council objected to some members calling for the giant Carmichael coal mine not to proceed.
The report cited the QRC's objection as being that it argues "there is no direct scientific link between coal mining of itself and climate change", a paraphrasing the QRC sought to change.
In their report, the scientists highlighted the fact that the Great Barrier Reef's unprecedented bleaching events over the past two summers had killed "close to 50 per cent" of the corals over the entire reef, and they called for climate action.
"Global emission reduction targets should be set to secure an average temperature increase of no more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, or even less," the report said.
"To protect current reef biodiversity, global average temperature rise would need to be limited to [about] 1.2 degrees."
Failure to meet the Paris climate targets would be more bad news for the world's corals. Photo: ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
At the end of 2015, almost 200 nations in Paris agreed to keep temperature increases to between 1.5 and 2 degrees to curb the impact of more frequent extreme climate events, such as more potent storms and fiercer heatwaves as the planet heats up.
However, the expert panel said the Paris pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions were inadequate - including Australia's - putting the world on a warming course of as much as 3.7 degrees.
The light on the hill? Australia's energy and climate policies remain at odds. Photo: AP
That is about four times the increase so far, which has already led to several major bouts of coral bleaching.

'Australia should lead'
"Australia should set targets appropriate to its 'fair share' of emission reduction aimed at keeping global warming to the low end of the [Paris] range, or below," the report said.
In addition, Australia should "play a prominent leading role in securing appropriate global targets and purposeful action to meet a 1.5-degree target, or lower," the panel concluded.
Mr Frydenberg said the government was "deeply concerned about the impacts of coral bleaching and are committed to action to address climate change through the Paris Agreement, which commits parties to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees".
"While we consider the expert advice in detail, we have identified a number of actions to be undertaken immediately, including: bringing forward the mid-term review of the Reef 2050 Plan; scaling up crown-of-thorns starfish control, research and management; and improving water quality entering the Reef," he said.
The Queensland government said it was up to Canberra to lead the way.
"This is yet another report, from the Turnbull government's own panel of experts, telling them they aren't doing enough to address the biggest threat to the Great Barrier Reef," Queensland Environment Minister Steven Miles said.
"This just reinforces the need for the Turnbull government to adopt the Clean Energy Target recommended by their own Finkel review, as well as policies to reduce other emissions," Mr Miles said.
Coral reefs are among the most prominent "early movers" in terms of ecosystems stressed by rapid warming. Many coral species expel the algae that provide them with most of the energy and their often brilliant colours once certain temperature thresholds are exceeded for a sustained time.
Corals that survive can have reduced reproduction, hindering their recovery and leaving the reef vulnerable to another heat spike.

Report dispute
The Turnbull government has said Australia is on course to meet its 2020 emissions reduction goals and that its 2030 targets are among the most ambitious.
Even if reached, however, Australia would still be one of the world's largest emitters on a per-capita basis by the end of the next decade.
The expert group recommended the government continue to support programs that reduce other stresses on the corals, such as reducing high-nutrient run-off from Queensland farms.
The report said the government should identify key species that support the reef's ecology and target interventions "at scale ... and with urgency" to support these creatures.
The Queensland Resources Council, meanwhile, sought changes to the advisory committee report it said contained some inaccurate characterisation of its position.
Ian Macfarlane, a former federal energy minister and now chief executive of the QRC, said the mining group "supports the recent findings by the Queensland and Australian governments that climate change causes coral bleaching on the reef".
"There is a difference between coal burning and coal mining and QRC's position on the latter is mining itself is not a large contributor to climate change," Mr Macfarlane said.
"In terms of the burning of coal, Australia has high efficiency, low emissions coal when compared with lower quality, higher emission coals sourced from Indonesia and India," he said.
A report in Nature Climate Change this week found there was only a 5 per cent chance that global warming can be kept to under 2 degrees compared with pre-industrial era levels by 2100.

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