15/08/2017

8 Ways Climate Change Puts Your Safety At Risk

Scientific AmericanSabrina Stierwalt

Worried about climate change? Or just plain confused? Here's 8 concrete ways climate change puts your safety at risk
Credit: otodo Flickr (CC BY-SA 2.0)
The current presidential administration in the US has proposed to almost completely eliminate funding for programs aimed at researching and reducing the effects of climate change.
The Environmental Protection Agency faces a cut of 31% or roughly $2.4 billion and almost 4,000 jobs.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could be cut by a potential 17% which would specifically eliminate $510 million (or ~22%) of their satellite division.
These cuts would likely encompass climate programs like EnergyStar, SmartWay, fuel emission standards, and weather warning systems.
Let's look at 8 ways climate change poses risks, or potential risks, to our health and safety.

1. Extreme weather puts your safety at risk, especially when we cannot plan ahead.
Rising global average temperatures are linked to widespread changes in weather patterns and an increase in the frequency and intensity of weather events like heat waves, and rain or snow storms. Around 2.1 million acres were burned by wildfires in the first 3 months of 2017, three times the amount lost in the previous year. Massachusetts saw its first tornado since it began documenting weather patterns in the 1600s.
In many areas across the globe, like the northeastern US, we have become accustomed to snowstorms that drop more than 20 inches of snow each winter, but such blizzards were once rare. Not only can extreme storms be inherently dangerous, but their risk is compounded by cuts to satellite programs that are tasked with tracking weather patterns. Without enough funding to maintain existing satellites and for improving and adapting models of weather phenomena, our ability to accurately forecast and thus plan ahead for extreme weather events is significantly hindered.

2. Climate change puts our fresh water supply at risk.
As an astronomer, I can tell you that nothing is deemed more vital to our existence than water.  As an astronomer, I can tell you that nothing is deemed more vital to our existence than water. When we discover a new planet, the first question we ask is always, could there be water?
Rising temperatures and extreme weather events like droughts will clearly place water supplies at risk. According to the US Geological Survey, while surface water can recover with just a few days of heavy rain, groundwater aquifers like those tapped during the recent Californian drought can take decades to replenish. Droughts also lead to drier conditions which put land at higher risk for wildfires. In the US, you can check the level of fire danger in your area thanks to the National Park Service and the National Fire Danger Rating System.
But too much rain can also be a problem for our water supply. Flooding from heavy rains can cause sewage to overflow and contaminate drinking water. Earlier this year 1.5 million people were without water in Santiago because mudslides and flooding caused by heavy rain contaminated the Maipo River, a major source of drinking water. The rising sea levels linked to rising global temperatures also threaten to groundwater used for drinking with contamination from saltwater. One program that helps US coastal communities in 33 states deal with flooding, the NOAA's Sea Grant program, faces drastic cuts in the newly proposed budget.  
Let us also not forget that as water becomes scarcer, water bills will go up, which may force some of us to make budget cuts in other areas of our lives, even if that involves risk.

3. Food production could be disrupted leading to higher prices.
With some areas facing increased flooding and others enduring longer droughts, food production could be significantly disrupted with the onset of climate change. Some areas may become too hot for crops that have grown there easily in the past. Too little water would cause problems for irrigation while too much water in the form of rainstorms could damage crops.
According to the National Resources Defense Council, 25% of the the honey bee population has disappeared since 1990, in large part due to shrinking habitats, or, in other words, a loss in areas with temperatures and conditions suitable for bees to survive. Having fewer bees poses a further threat to at least 30% of the world's crops which rely on bees for cross-pollination, crops like apples, almonds, pumpkins, onions, and avocados. On the flip side, some plants, like crop-harming weeds, as well as certain pests that thrive in hotter temperatures may see population booms, stealing resources from food crops.

4. Many allergens and disease carrying insects will thrive under the changing climate.
Among the pests that will thrive under the high temperatures and higher levels of carbon dioxide that are associated with climate change, ticks and poison ivy rank highly. Studies have shown that while the average tree will grow 8% faster in a climate with high levels of carbon dioxide, poison ivy grows 149% faster. Scientists have already observed the poison ivy/oak/sumac populations to be stronger, leading to more intense rashes. As a sufferer of poison ivy myself, I know that each emergency trip to the doctor following an encounter with the plant can also cost a pretty penny.
Tick populations are also booming in the US and the number of reported cases of Lyme disease has doubled since 1990. Warmer temperatures have lead to ticks moving farther and farther north expanding their geographic reach.

5. Microbes may be forced to adapt.
The impact climate change will have on microbes, including bacteria and eukaryotes, is complex and, unfortunately, has not yet been thoroughly studied. However, research has shown that microbe communities tend to adapt rather than resist rising temperatures and thus change their composition and function. We know that microbes play critical roles in human health and the health of certain plants, and so that adaptation may prove detrimental whether the microbes are "good" or "bad" for us. They also produce much of the air that we breathe, and so their possible extinction is worth investigating.

6. Infrastructure and the safety it provides are at risk under extreme weather.
$50 billion of federal aid was spent in the US to rebuild after Hurricane Sandy shook the northeastern US, Canada and the Caribbean and caused at least 147 deaths.
Almost 164,000 residents in Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey applied for federal assistance from FEMA.
Extreme weather events threaten not only our personal property, but the roads, bridges, sidewalks, highways, and other infrastructure that we rely on to keep us safe. 

7. Energy may be both more in demand and harder to produce.
We know that our methods of energy production via coal and fossil fuels increase the level of carbon dioxide in the air and thus contribute to rising global temperatures. But, as reported by the US Department of Energy in 2013, the effects of climate change, including increasing temperatures, decreasing water supply, extreme weather, and sea level rise, will in term affect our ability to produce and transmit electricity from these and other, renewable methods.
For example, energy production from coal, nuclear power, natural gas, and of course hydroelectric power, all require high water use and may be significantly affected by drought. Drought, along with increasing temperatures, also lead to increased consumption of energy, for example, to run an air conditioner, and so can overload electrical grids causing blackouts. Just as transportation infrastructure is at risk from extreme weather, so is energy-related infrastructure like power lines, transformers, and power plants.

8. Climate change poses a threat to national security.  
Beyond our safety as individuals, climate change poses a potential threat to global and national security. In a 2010 report from the US Joint Forces Command called the Joint Operating Environment, climate change is named as a national security threat likely to face the US military over the following 25 years.
According to officials of the United Nations, "stronger storms, rising seas, drought, famine, and the migration these events cause could each be the spark to ignite many potential conflicts smoldering around the world, prompting wars and destabilizing governments."
As part of his Senate hearing, US Defense Secretary James Mattis testified that "climate change is impacting stability in areas of the world where our troops are operating today." Humanitarian crises like typhoons and famine due to drought also become more challenging to respond to in the face of climate change.
And just as our infrastructure related to transportation and energy production are at risk, so is that of our military. For example, Hampton Roads, Virginia has the largest number of military bases of any city in the world, but it is already experiencing rapid sea level rise. Flooding could not only disrupt operations, but also damage critical infrastructure.
The US is large and covers a range of climate diversity. Thus, the impacts of climate change here will be many. However, our planet's climate is globally shared and so the extent of climate change in the US will ultimately depend on the strength cooperative efforts like those between European Union and China.

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Review: ‘An Inconvenient Sequel,’ With Al Gore Keeping The Pressure On

New York Times - Ben Kenigsberg

An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
NYT Critic's Pick Directed by Bonni Cohen, Jon Shenk Documentary PG 1h 38m

Al Gore visiting Tacloban City in the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan, from "An Inconvenient Sequel." Credit Jensen Walker/Paramount Pictures

In a summer movie landscape with Spider-Man, a simian army waging further battle for the planet and Charlize Theron as a sexy Cold War-era superspy, it says something that one of the most compelling characters is Al Gore.
"An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power," a follow-up to "An Inconvenient Truth," Davis Guggenheim's Oscar-winning documentary from 2006, is a reboot that justifies its existence — and not just because Mr. Gore has fresh news to report on climate change since his previous multimedia presentation played in multiplexes.
Now gray-haired and at times sounding angrier in his speeches, Mr. Gore, in "Sequel," takes on the air of a Shakespearean figure, a man long cast out of power by what he casually refers to as "the Supreme Court decision" (meaning Bush v. Gore) but still making the same arguments that have been hallmarks of his career.
If there is a thesis in this new documentary, directed by Bonni Cohen and Jon Shenk ("Audrie & Daisy"), it's that a rise in extreme weather is making the impact of climate change harder to deny. The movie touches on Hurricane Sandy, Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, the wildfire in Fort McMurray, Canada, and the Zika virus. Mr. Gore visits Greenland and the flooded streets of the Miami area. (He acknowledges a complicated relationship with Florida.)

A preview of the film. By PARAMOUNT PICTURES

"The dots are seldom connected in the media," he says at one point, but events like these are symptoms of global warming.
As positive developments, he notes the 2015 launch of the Deep Space Climate Observatory satellite, and visits a small city in Texas whose Republican mayor has decided that renewable energy makes market sense.
"An Inconvenient Sequel" delves deeper into the arcane details of compromise than its predecessor, with scenes of Mr. Gore working to find a middle ground between the needs of developed and developing nations. In a group meeting, Piyush Goyal, India's power minister, pushes back against Mr. Gore's desire to replicate in India the expanded use of solar energy in the United States. "I'll do the same thing after 150 years," Mr. Goyal replies.
During the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference, Mr. Gore, who wasn't an official negotiator, tries to persuade Lyndon Rive, then chief executive of the American company SolarCity, to grant India the rights to a patent on a type of solar technology. (The results aren't clear from the film; India signed on to the Paris agreement without making a deal with SolarCity and still hasn't made one.)
Mr. Gore likens President Trump's election to a quip often attributed to Mike Tyson: You always have a plan until you get punched in the face. The movie has been updated since its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in January to include Mr. Trump's announcement of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, a decision that probably forecasts another sequel.

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2016 Weather Report: Extreme And Anything But Normal

Chicago Tribune - Seth Borenstein (Associated Press)

In this July 21, 2016 file photo, the sun sets beyond visitors to Liberty Memorial as the temperature hovers around 100 degrees in Kansas City, Mo. A new U.S. report says last year's weather was far more extreme or record breaking than anything approaching normal. (Charlie Riedel / AP)
Last year's global weather was far more extreme or record breaking than anything approaching normal, according to a new report.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday released its annual checkup of the Earth, highlighting numerous records including hottest year, highest sea level, and lowest sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctica.
The 299-page report, written by scientists around the world and published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, shows that 2016 was "very extreme and it is a cause for concern," said co-editor Jessica Blunden, a NOAA climate scientist.
Researchers called it a clear signal of human-caused climate change. A record large El Nino, the warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide, was also a big factor in last year's wild weather.
"2016 will be forever etched in my brain as the year we crossed a new threshold of climate change — one that gave us a grim glimpse into our future," said Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb, who had no role in the report.
Scientists examined dozens of key climate measures and found:
  • At any given time, nearly one-eighth of the world's land mass was in severe drought. That's far higher than normal and "one of the worst years for drought," said report co-author Robert Dunn of the United Kingdom Met Office.
  • Extreme weather was everywhere. Giant downpours were up. Heat waves struck all over the globe, including a nasty one in India. Extreme weather contributed to a gigantic wildfire in Canada.
  • Global sea level rose another quarter of an inch (3.4 millimeters) for the sixth straight year of record high sea levels.
  • There were 93 tropical cyclones across the globe, 13 percent more than normal. That included Hurricane Matthew that killed about 1,000 people in Haiti.
  • The world's glaciers shrank — for the 37th year in a row — by an average of about 3 feet (1 meter).
  • Greenland's ice sheet in 2016 lost 341 billion tons of ice (310 billion metric tons). It has lost 4400 billion tons (4000 billion metric tons of ice since 2002.
"2016 was a year in the Arctic like we've never seen before," said NOAA Arctic research chief Jeremy Mathis, who called it "a clear and more pronounced signal of warming than in any other year on record."
Many of the findings have been previously released, including that 2016 was the hottest year on record for the third consecutive year. A separate study based on modeling and weather patterns shows three hot years in a row is close to impossible to be a natural coincidence.
The odds of three years in a row setting heat records without man-made global warming is only 0.7 percent, compared to 30 to 50 percent with greenhouse gases according to a separate study published Thursday in the Geophysical Research Letters.
NOAA report co-editor Deke Arndt said the only notable normal global measure in 2016 was snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.

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