28/08/2017

25 Years Of Global Sea Level Data, And Counting

NASA - Carol Rasmussen

Changes in sea level height from 1993 to 2017 compared with a long-term mean of the data. Blue and purple are lower than the mean; red, yellow and white are higher. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
August 10 marked the 25th anniversary of the launch of a revolutionary ocean research vessel — a space "ship." As the NASA/CNES Topex-Poseidon satellite ascended into orbit, it ushered in a new era of oceanography with the first highly accurate, global measurements of sea levels. That mission and its three successors, all named Jason, have continuously mapped global ocean currents and tides; opened our eyes to the global reach of El Niño and other climate events; created a quarter-century-long, extraordinarily precise record of global and regional sea level rise; and enabled improved forecasts of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.
A new slideshow celebrates this important data set — a fundamental measurement for the study of the oceans and climate — and the longstanding U.S.-French collaboration that brought it about.

Topex-Poseidon
Topex-Poseidon illustration. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech. 
In 1992, when Topex-Poseidon launched, no one foresaw that its record of precision ocean height measurements would continue through three decades and four spacecraft. In fact, many oceanographers at the time weren't convinced that Topex-Poseidon's sensors would be accurate enough to reveal the signal of sea level rise out of the noise of waves, tides and other changes. But the radar altimeter and radiometer measurement system outperformed expectations from the start. In 25 years of continuous operation, Topex-Poseidon and its successors have recorded 2.8 inches (7 centimeters) of global average sea level rise.
Our planet’s oceans are too vast and complex to be fully measured by any single satellite, or even by any single nation. Topex-Poseidon and its successor Jason satellite missions are shining examples of the power of a sustained, long-term international partnership, led by the U.S. and French space agencies, NASA and CNES.  For nearly three decades, NASA and CNES scientists and engineers have pooled their expertise, talents and insights to design and construct an integrated spaceborne measurement system far more powerful than the sum of its parts. NASA and CNES have worked together, applying advanced technology to collect measurements of remarkable precision and accuracy, and then making those measurements freely and openly available. With this effort, they have provided humanity with unprecedented views of the global oceans, how they change on time scales of days to decades, and how the oceans influence — and respond to — weather and climate.
“For more than a generation, NASA and CNES scientists and engineers have collaborated to make exquisitely accurate measurements of the ocean surface from space, providing insights into the workings and interactions of our planet’s two great fluid systems, the oceans and the atmosphere,” said Michael Freilich, director of NASA’s Earth Science Division in Washington.

Ocean currents

This is an animation of ocean surface currents from June 2005 to December 2007 from NASA satellites. Watch how bigger currents like the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the Kuroshio in the Pacific carry warm waters across thousands of miles at speeds greater than four miles per hour (six kilometers per hour); how coastal currents like the Agulhas in the Southern Hemisphere move equatorial waters toward Earth's poles; and how thousands of other ocean currents are confined to particular regions and form slow-moving, circular pools called eddies. Credit: NASA/SVS. Download video

The Topex-Poseidon mission was the first to monitor the changing patterns of major ocean surface currents in a comprehensive way. Ocean current locations are revealed by large-scale hills and valleys on the ocean surface, which can vary by more than 6 feet (2 meters) in height. The peaks and dips defining the ocean’s topography are caused by variations in water temperature and pressure.  Large-scale currents like the Gulf Stream tend to flow along contours of constant ocean height, following the sides of the hills and valleys.  The steepness of a slope indicates the speed of the current. Unlike terrain on land, however, the liquid "landscape" shifts with changes in winds, temperature and other factors, causing shifts in the locations and speeds of the currents. The only way to monitor these changes over the entire surface of Earth's ocean is to make precise measurements of the height of the ocean surface from orbiting satellites.
Measuring the ocean shape over nearly the entire globe every 10 days, Topex-Poseidon gave the first quantitative view of how ocean currents change with the seasons. Topex/Poseidon and the Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3 missions have provided unique insights into how ocean circulation affects climate by moving heat from place to place on our planet.

Heat storage in the ocean
NOAA's annual assessment of the heat in the upper ocean (2015 shown), a measure of global warming, draws on Topex series data. Image credit: NOAA.
More than 90 percent of the heat from global warming is stored in the ocean, which means oceans are key players in global climate. Heat causes ocean water to expand, adding to sea level rise. Measuring both long-term sea level trends and the shape of the ocean surface related to currents, Topex-Poseidon and the Jason series provide two basic ingredients for understanding the ocean's role in global climate variations.
"As human-caused global warming drives sea levels higher and higher, we are literally contributing to the reshaping of the surface of our planet," said Josh Willis, NASA project scientist for Jason-3 at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "The precision altimetric satellite missions tell us how much and how fast."

El Niño, La Niña, and more
Among Topex-Poseidon's early achievements was recording the full extent of a record El Niño in 1997 and the succeeding La Niña in 1999. Darker colors are sea levels lower than normal, lighter and white colors are higher than normal. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
For decades, scientists could not predict how El Niño and other year-to-year ocean variations changed regional weather. That was partly because, using only ships and buoys, they couldn't observe the genesis and growth of these changes far out in the equatorial Pacific. Topex-Poseidon and the Jason satellites have given the first frequent, global views of the full extent and life cycles of El Niño and La Niña events. Lee-Lueng Fu of JPL — project scientist for the first two ocean altimetry missions — pointed out, "Topex-Poseidon allowed us to follow their evolution and showed that these events weren't limited to just the tropics. It also gave us evidence of even longer-lasting ocean variations." One of these is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, similar to El Niño and La Niña in character but with phases lasting up to several decades.
In the last 25 years, with the help of altimetry data, scientists have pinpointed many global connections between these multi-year ocean variations and weather consequences such as drought and flooding throughout the globe. While these events have by no means yielded all their secrets, they are better understood and better forecast than before global spaceborne observations began.

Tides on the open ocean
A numerical model of daily global tides using sea level data from Topex-Poseidon. Image credit: ESR. 
Before satellite measurements, deep-ocean tide measurements were difficult to make, expensive and sparse. Topex-Poseidon made the first global maps of tides, which changed scientists' understanding of how tides dissipate. The data show that a third of tidal energy dissipates in the open ocean, playing important and previously unknown roles in mixing water within the ocean.

Jason-1
Topex-Poseidon had a three-year prime mission, but long before that time was up, oceanographers and other Earth scientists recognized the value of continuing its measurements as long as possible. Fu explained, "Sea surface height is a fundamental measure of the Earth system, so it was a no-brainer that scientists would want to have this kind of information indefinitely." With strong community support, Jason-1 was constructed by NASA and CNES and launched in December 2001. For three years, Topex-Poseidon and Jason-1 flew in coordinated orbits that allowed scientists to cross-calibrate their measurements and then combine the data sets to observe the global oceans more frequently. Each succeeding mission has also overlapped its predecessor, ensuring a consistent data record.
So far, each of the ocean altimetry missions has proven to be long-lived. Topex-Poseidon was eventually decommissioned in 2005 after 13 years in orbit. Jason-1 survived almost 12 years, until July 2013. Nine-year-old Jason-2 and Jason-3 (launched in January 2016) are still in operation.

Jason-2
Lee Fu (left) was the project scientist for Topex Poseidon and Jason-1 and -2. Josh Willis is the current project scientist for Jason-2 and -3. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech. 
With the launch of Jason-2 in June 2008, the focus of spaceborne ocean altimetry transitioned from research objectives to data applications providing tangible benefits to society. Mission operations moved from the research agencies NASA and CNES to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT); indeed, satellite altimeter measurements are used routinely in NOAA’s El Niño forecasts. NASA and CNES continue to provide science teams, instrument design, and science-focused, specialized data management.

Forecasting
Jason-1 data contributed to this forecast of Hurricane Rita's track across the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. The storm track appears as a black line. Jason-1 observed a tongue of very warm water (red) in the gulf, 13-23 inches (35-60 centimeters) higher than surrounding water. Ocean heat can strengthen hurricane intensity. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado.
On smaller space and time scales, satellite altimetry measurements provide information directly useful for marine storm prediction. Hurricanes are fueled by heat stored in the ocean below, and since the upper ocean expands and contracts as it heats and cools, sea level height is a marker for water temperature and heat content. So it is hardly surprising that ocean altimetry data are routinely used in forecasting hurricane strength.
In 2014, an unexpected forecasting use for altimetry data became operational. Bangladesh, whose 46-year history has encompassed death-dealing river floods, uses Jason-2 measurements of river levels in its flood forecasting and warning system. Within the first year using these data, Bangladesh's system enabled the most accurate, long-lead flood warnings ever given for that nation.

Navigation
The U.S. Navy uses the ocean altimetry satellites' data to aid surface and underwater navigation. Image credit: U.S. Navy. 
Civilian sailors and the U.S. Navy use the series' near-real-time data on currents, eddies, winds and waves to aid surface and underwater navigation. Information on eddy currents in the Gulf of Mexico has been used by marine operators to schedule offshore drilling operations, with significant cost savings.

Jason-3
Artist's rendering of Jason-3. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

When Jason-3 launched in 2016, NASA project scientist Willis commented, "This mission has big shoes to fill. Its predecessors have built one of the clearest records we have of our changing climate." Jason-3 has performed flawlessly in continuing the global record of precise sea-surface topography measurements and is now halfway through its prime mission.

A new role for Jason-2
Jason-2's new, lower orbit will allow scientists — such as Walter H. Smith (NOAA) and David Sandwell (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), who produced this map — to improve their understanding of features on the global seafloor. Image credit: NOAA.
This year, Jason-2's onboard systems began to show signs of space radiation damage. The mission management decided to lower the satellite out of its shared orbit with Jason-3. At the urging of the science community, the satellite was lowered by 17 miles (27 kilometers), where it will collect data along a series of ground tracks only 5 miles (8 kilometers) apart, with a one-year repeat cycle.
Besides protecting Jason-3, the new orbit will allow Jason-2 to produce an improved, high-resolution estimate of Earth's average sea surface height. Because ocean topography is partly determined by the contours on the ocean bottom, the estimate is expected to enable scientists to improve maps of the seafloor, resolving currently unknown details of underwater features such as seamounts. These maps will permit advances in ocean modeling, tsunami wave forecasting and naval operations support.

Into the future
Illustration of the upcoming Sentinel-6 mission. Image credit: ESA.
The next ocean altimetry mission, expected to launch in 2020, is called Jason Continuity of Service (Jason-CS) on the Sentinel-6 mission. As the long name implies, it will carry on the proud Jason legacy, but with a new partner: the European Space Agency. EUMETSAT will lead the mission, and NASA's role will remain similar to its role in Jason-3. CNES will assess and evaluate the performance of the mission and provide precise orbit determination.
Satellites have already revolutionized oceanography, and soon they will do the same for hydrology -- the study of water on land. The French/U.S. Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be at the forefront, carrying an innovative interferometer dubbed KaRin that marks a break with today's technologies.
Fu notes that these changes show the value the world scientific community places on the ocean altimetry program. "The measurement is so important, and the technology is fully demonstrated," he said. "In the long haul, ocean altimetry is an international commitment."

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How To Win The Climate Wars – Talk About Local ‘Pollution’ Not Global Warming

The Conversation

24Novembers / shutterstock
Donald Trump has done many things to tarnish America’s reputation, but his decision to walk away from the Paris Agreement is probably the most internationally symbolic and damaging. That a US president can put climate change denial at the centre of his climate and energy policy is truly unprecedented, and it is difficult to remember an administration that has been so intent on undermining the intellectual and scientific findings on global warming.
Fighting back against Trump’s climate folly seems to be an uphill task. Even the impending publication of the Climate Science Special Report, drafted by scientists from 13 federal agencies, is unlikely to do much. The final report is expected to warn of the dangers of climate change, but it will most likely be surreptitiously sidelined.
One of the reasons behind Trump’s bullish attitude might be to do with public opinion in the US. In a poll carried out by Yale University in 2016, 70% of Americans said they believed in global warming and 58% believed that it will harm Americans. However, only 40% believe that it will actually impact them individually. Furthermore, just 24% said they heard about global warming in the media every week.
In a poll conducted by the Pew Research Centre this year, 76% said terrorism should be a top priority for the administration. Only 38% mentioned global warming. The polls suggest that Americans might be concerned about global warming and want more to be done about it. But they are more likely to be worried about, say, Kim Jong-un than climate change.
It’s a Chinese conspiracy, folks. Avivi Aharon / shutterstock
It appears that confronting Trump – or any other climate denier – on the basis of facts simply won’t work. The challenge should perhaps be to first rally public opinion until there is an overwhelming consensus that serious and urgent action is needed.
One practical short-term solution might be to shift the public discourse from “climate change” to “pollution”. Focusing on pollution has three advantages that may mean it moves public opinion better than global warming.

Can’t see ‘warming’
First, pollution is tangible. The fact that glaciers are melting might be alarming but it is not something that most of us experience in everyday life. And why would a rise in temperature matter as much to someone living in Sacramento, California, where it is already hot and where one can find shelter in air conditioned buildings?
Sacramento State stormwater project cuts pollution, raises awareness
Pollution, however, can be experienced on a daily basis and causes nuisances of all sorts. The same Sacramento resident who is indifferent to global warming might be concerned with the pollution in their local urban river parkway, for instance. In addition, reports claiming that there are millions of annual deaths from air pollution have a different, more personal ring from those making the more abstract claim that “global temperatures” are rising fast.

People care about pollution
Americans also seem to be more concerned about the environment than global warming. In the same opinion poll carried out by Pew, 55% of Americans saw “the environment” as a priority, a similar score to crime or poverty (and comfortably ahead of the military, immigration or “global warming”). They seem to be more worried about the quality of air and water where they live rather than losing sleep over a global climate phenomenon.
Not for sale. welcomia / shutterstock
What might also be encouraging is a poll carried out by the Center for American Progress this year which showed around two-thirds of those who voted for Trump opposed the idea of privatising or selling off America’s national forests and public lands. Whether this is a strong enough basis for there to be a rallying of the public is difficult to know. Nevertheless, focusing on the local environment is a good start.

You, the expert
A focus on pollution might also actually open up the debate on the environment and encourage some kind of grassroot reaction. Too often the discourse on the environment and global warming has been dominated by scientific experts and politicians. As such, the public might believe that this is a matter of scientific debate that somehow they cannot participate in, without some prior knowledge. After all, what can you, personally, contribute to a debate on carbon dioxide parts-per-million, or melting glaciers? Would you even know either was a problem if scientists hadn’t warned us?
By contrast, feeling the effects of environmental pollution does not require expert knowledge. The public can express remedial actions and suggestions, without having to pretend that they understand atmospheric science. Moreover, actions are more likely to be taken on a local level if the focus is on local pollution.
The public should be scientists’ first ally in this battle. Any language and issues that engage people against Trump’s climate folly in whatever way should be the priority for scientists and policy makers seeking to address the problem.

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Victoria Moves To Become First State To Enshrine Renewable Energy Targets In Law

The Guardian

Government says law, which will include 40% renewables by 2025 and commitment to invest in new projects, will send a strong signal to investors
The Victorian renewable energy targets will rely on a reverse auction to encourage the construction of new wind and solar projects. Photograph: Pacific Hydro Limited
The Victorian government has introduced legislation to enshrine its renewable energy targets in law and establish a reverse auction mechanism to build 650 megawatts worth of new projects.
The premier, Daniel Andrews, announced the Victorian renewable energy targets (VRET) of 25% renewable energy by 2020 and 40% by 2025 in June 2016.
If Andrews can negotiate it past the upper house, the legislation introduced to parliament on Wednesday will make Victoria the first state to enshrine both its renewable energy targets and its commitment to invest in renewable energy in law.
That will send a strong signal to investors, environment minister Lily D’Ambrosio said, and provide certainty for both the energy industry and electricity consumers.
“These are ambitious yet achievable targets and this is the policy certainty and it’s the right policy that industry has been deeply searching for to make sure they can actually make the right decisions to invest in our state,” D’Ambrosio said.
The VRET will rely on a reverse auction to encourage the construction of new wind and solar projects in Victoria. D’Ambrosio said modelling by the state government showed it would reduce household electricity bills by $30 a year over the life of the scheme and drive a 16% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2034.
“In a pure economics sense more supply means cheaper prices and that’s what we will be modelling it on,” she said.
Leading experts agree that renewable energy is the cheapest form of new power generation, D’Ambrosio said.
Victoria has already held a limited reverse auction to commission two new solar plants designed to power Melbourne’s tram network.
The successful tenders, announced on Wednesday, are the 100 megawatt Bannerton Solar Park near Robinvale in north-west Victoria and a 38 megawatt solar farm at Numerka, near Shepparton.
D’Ambrosio said the new projects would provide 138 megawatts of solar power and create jobs in regional areas. Expressions of interest for the reverse auction for 650 megawatts of renewable energy power generation – enough to power 389,000 homes or the combined residential areas of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and the Latrobe Valley – will open in October.
Victoria has long been critical of the Turnbull government’s commitment to a clean energy target and threatened to work around government “indecision”. The current federal renewable energy target expires in 2020.
“What we know is that in the absence of policy certainty and leadership in Victoria it’s up to states like Victoria to fill that void, to make sure that we’re doing everything that we can to drive the transition that is incredibly important,” Andrews said.
Environmental groups praised the decision, saying it led the way for other states and territories to enshrine their own targets in legislation and send a strong message they were transitioning away from fossil fuel power.
The Australian Conservation Foundation climate change campaigner, Suzanne Harter, said leadership was particularly important because of a “policy paralysis at a federal level”.
“The mechanism that the Victorian government is using is a tried and true mechanism,” Harter said. “Coupled with the targets, it sends clear signals to investors and to the sector.”
The Environment Victoria campaigns manager, Nicholas Aberle, said the legislation showed the promise to get to 40% renewables was not an “aspirational target”.
“It’s one thing to want more renewable energy but it’s another thing to create a mechanism to make it happen,” he said. “The federal government does not have the monopoly over energy policy and if they are going to continue to not take climate change seriously then states are going to step in.”
Aberle said new renewable energy projects would have to be spread throughout Victoria to fit within the limits of the existing electricity network and to provide energy security, preventing one severe weather event from taking out the power for the whole state, as a storm did last year in South Australia.
Some places, like the Latrobe Valley, have significant unused transmission capacity because of the closure of the Hazelwood power station, making them an ideal site for windfarms.
In March the Andrews government announced a $20m tender to build 100mw of battery storage in Victoria by 2018, in time to store power generated by the as yet commissioned renewable energy plants. Three months later, Tesla founder Elon Musk committed to build in South Australia the world’s largest lithium ion battery to store renewable energy.
Aberle said the speed with which battery technology was developing had put the goal of 100% renewable energy within reach.
“This is a really disruptive technology that’s going to completely reshape what our energy sector looks like in the future,” he said. “It’s going to shape it in a really positive way because it’s going to allow us to get to 100% renewable energy much more quickly.

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