03/09/2017

“Drawdown” — The Definitive Guide To Combating Climate Change

CleanTechnica - 

Drawdown is a compendium of every idea known to humanity at the present time that can slow or reverse the devastation of climate change. The Paris climate change protocols set out the lofty goals agreed to by all of the world’s governments except two in December of 2015. Drawdown is the nuts and bolts guide to implementing those goals.

Maps, Measures, & Models
Edited by Paul Hawken, the book “maps, measures, models, and describes the 100 most substantive solutions to global warming. For each solution, we describe its history, the carbon impact it provides, the relative cost and savings, the path to adoption, and how it works. The goal of the research that informs Drawdown is to determine if we can reverse the buildup of atmospheric carbon within thirty years. All solutions modeled are already in place, well understood, analyzed based on peer-reviewed science, and are expanding around the world.”
At 240 pages in length, this review cannot delve into each nook and cranny of the environmental toolkit proposed by the authors. Suffice to say, if you are interested in how humans can address climate change in an effective way, Drawdown is a must-read book.
Every aspect of every idea is explored in detail. The recommendations are peer reviewed. The science behind each one is extensively footnoted so anyone who wants to can go to the source. What I found most remarkable about the book begins on page 222 — Summary Of Solutions By Overall Ranking.

Drawdown Surprises
We here at CleanTechnica, we focus heavily on the electrification of the transportation sector. That is critically important, of course, but would you care to guess what the one area is that we as a people have total control over and that has the potential to keep more carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere than making every car and truck on the planet run on electricity?
#1 is something we have touched on here only briefly — refrigerant management. Read more about it on page 164. The authors estimate that this one area could keep nearly 90 gigatons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere. Electric cars? About 4 gigatons.
Here are the other 9 items on the Top 10 list and their carbon reduction potential:
  • Wind Turbines (Onshore) — 84.60 gigatons
  • Reduced Food Waste — 70.53 gigatons
  • Plant-rich diet — 66.11 gigatons
  • Tropical Forests — 61.23 gigatons
  • Educating Girls — 59.60 gigatons
  • Family Planning — 59.60 gigatons
  • Solar Farms — 36.90 gigatons
  • Silvopasture — 31.19 gigatons
  • Rooftop Solar — 24.60 gigatons
There are 80 items on the list. Total cost if all were fully implemented? $27.4 trillion. That’s a lot of cash, right? However will we pay for all that? With savings, people — or deferred costs. The authors estimated total economic savings at just under $74 trillion.

Deferred Gratification
The trick, of course, is that the costs come up front. The savings often come later. Human beings seem genetically incapable of making hard choices today that will have extraordinary benefits later. Deferred gratification could be the death knell for the capitalist model prevalent in most countries today. Pie-in-the-sky projections about future savings are discounted. Either they are treated as irrelevant or derided as #FakeNews.
The world operates on what I like to call the Wimpy Theory. Wimpy was a character in Popeye cartoons (some of you may be old enough to remember watching cartoons on television on Saturday mornings). Wimpy had one line that he used all the time. It went like this: “I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a cheeseburger today.” It’s the “kick the can down the road” theory of global management and it will kill us all if we don’t stop — all except the lucky few who can escape to Mars aboard Elon Musk’s magic carpet.

Empowerment Of Women
We have recently written some articles on refrigeration. We have also touched on educating girls and the empowerment of women. Each of those areas makes the Top 10 list in Drawdown. Electric cars are #49. Combined, educating girls and empowering women are rated as saving more carbon dioxide emissions than any other element in the hierarchy of suggestions for combating climate change compiled by the editors.
And yet, the US government, spurred on by the hatred and bigotry of the so-called Religious Right (which is neither, by the way), has reimposed the so-called “global gag rule” that prohibits the spending of $1 to assist women in other countries from having access to family planning services. Here at home, the US Congress is howling like a pack of jackals in search of ways to defund Planned Parenthood.

Changes In Attitude Needed
Want to make an impact in the fight to limit the ravages of climate change? Buying an electric car and putting solar panels on your roof is laudable. But advocating for women’s rights and access to adequate health care should be your first priority. What Drawdown makes abundantly clear is that putting shackles on women to satisfy some cultural notions of male privilege or the ravings of so-called religious leaders like Pat Robertson and Franklin Graham is a death warrant for the earth.
It’s easy to throw platitudes around and advocate for our favorite fix for global warming. Drawdown shows us that fixing our attitudes about each other will be more important in the long run than all of Elon Musk’s astonishing inventions, all the solar panels, and all the Gigafactories in the world. It’s shocking to realize electric cars will eliminate only 4% of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere in coming years compared to the combination of educating and empowering women.
Shocking it may be, but as Mark Twain once said: “It’s not what you don’t know that kills you, it’s what you know for sure that ain’t true.”

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Australia’s Record-Breaking Winter Warmth Linked To Climate Change

The Conversation - 

This winter had some extreme low and high temperatures. Daniel Lee/Flickr, CC BY-NC
On the first day of spring, it’s time to take stock of the winter that was. It may have felt cold, but Australia’s winter had the highest average daytime temperatures on record. It was also the driest in 15 years.
Back at the start of winter the Bureau of Meteorology forecast a warm, dry season. That proved accurate, as winter has turned out both warmer and drier than average.
While we haven’t seen anything close to the weather extremes experienced in other parts of the world, including devastating rainfalls in Niger, the southern US and the Indian subcontinent all in the past week, we have seen a few interesting weather extremes over the past few months across Australia.
Much of the country had drier conditions than average, especially in the southeast and the west. Bureau of Meteorology
Drier weather than normal has led to warmer days and cooler nights, resulting in some extreme temperatures. These include night-time lows falling below -10℃ in the Victorian Alps and -8℃ in Canberra (the coldest nights for those locations since 1974 and 1971, respectively), alongside daytime highs of above 32℃ in Coffs Harbour and 30℃ on the Sunshine Coast.
During the early part of the winter the southern part of the country remained dry as record high pressure over the continent kept cold fronts at bay. Since then we’ve seen more wet weather for our southern capitals and some impressive snow totals for the ski fields, even if the snow was late to arrive.
This warm, dry winter is laying the groundwork for dangerous fire conditions in spring and summer. We have already had early-season fires on the east coast and there are likely to be more to come.

Climate change and record warmth
Australia’s average daytime maximum temperatures were the highest on record for this winter, beating the previous record set in 2009 by 0.3℃. This means Australia has set new seasonal highs for maximum temperatures a remarkable ten times so far this century (across summer, autumn, winter and spring). The increased frequency of heat records in Australia has already been linked to climate change.
Winter 2017 stands out as having the warmest average daytime temperatures by a large margin. Bureau of Meteorology
The record winter warmth is part of a long-term upward trend in Australian winter temperatures. This prompts the question: how much has human-caused climate change altered the likelihood of extremely warm winters in Australia?
I used a standard event attribution methodology to estimate the role of climate change in this event.
I took the same simulations that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses in its assessments of the changing climate, and I put them into two sets: one that represents the climate of today (including the effects of greenhouse gas emissions) and one with simulations representing an alternative world that excludes our influences on the climate.
I used 14 climate models in total, giving me hundreds of years in each of my two groups to study Australian winter temperatures. I then compared the likelihood of record warm winter temperatures like 2017 in those different groups. You can find more details of my method here.
I found a stark difference in the chance of record warm winters across Australia between these two sets of model simulations. By my calculations there has been at least a 60-fold increase in the likelihood of a record warm winter that can be attributed to human-caused climate change. The human influence on the climate has increased Australia’s temperatures during the warmest winters by close to 1℃.

More winter warmth to come
Looking ahead, it’s likely we’re going to see more record warm winters, like we’ve seen this year, as the climate continues to warm.
The likelihood of winter warmth like this year is rising. Best estimate chances are shown with the vertical black lines showing the 90% confidence interval. Author provided
Under the Paris Agreement, the world’s nations are aiming to limit global warming to below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels, with another more ambitious goal of 1.5℃ as well. These targets are designed to prevent the worst potential impacts of climate change. We are currently at around 1℃ of global warming.
Even if global warming is limited to either of these levels, we would see more winter warmth like 2017. In fact, under the 2℃ target, we would likely see these winters occurring in more than 50% of years. The record-setting heat of today would be roughly the average climate of a 2℃ warmed world.
While many people will have enjoyed the unusual winter warmth, it poses risks for the future. Many farmers are struggling with the lack of reliable rainfall, and bad bushfire conditions are forecast for the coming months. More winters like this in the future will not be welcomed by those who have to deal with the consequences.

Climate data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. For more details about winter 2017, see the Bureau’s Climate Summaries.
You can find more details on the specific methods applied for this analysis here.

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Winter Marked By Record Temperatures Nationally As Big Dry Spreads

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Winter's grip will finally feel like it's loosened amid a "heat spike" this weekend – even if that season's squeeze was not a particularly tight one.
Nationally, Australia had its warmest winter by maximum temperatures since records began in 1910, with days on average 1.9 degrees warmer than normal. That beat the previous record winter in 2009 by 0.3 degrees.
The large air tanker C-130 Hercules "Thor" does a water drop fly-by as fire authorities gear up for an early and active fire season. Photo: Ben Rushton
One influence driving the abnormally mild condition was the band of high pressures that sat further south than normal over the continent, keeping cold fronts at bay. Climate change was also a factor.
"You have the underlying long-term warming trend," Blair Trewin, senior climatologist at the bureau, said. "Consistent with that, 19 of the last 20 winters have had above-average maximum temperatures."
Nationally, August was less extreme than June and July, with temperature anomalies less pronounced and better rains across south-eastern Australia helping to ease rainfall deficits in many areas.
Forest fire index levels, though, remain high, particularly for inland NSW, as authorities prepare for an early bushfire season.
For Sydney, the city had its driest winter since 2009. The 211.4-millimetre tally for the three months was about a third below average. July and August alone, though, were the driest in 22 years, Weatherzone said.
Sydney had its seventh-warmest winter for daytime temperatures, in line with last year.
The season also included the city's warmest July day on record, with 26.5 degrees on July 30 beating a record that had stood since 1990, the bureau said.
(See bureau chart below of average maximum temperatures.)

Brief burst of spring
Similarly warm conditions should return for the first weekend of spring, encouraging many to venture outdoors amid a "temporary heat spike", Graeme Brittain, a meteorologist from Weatherzone, said.
For those heading to the beach, "sheltered, south-facing beaches will be the place to go", particularly on Sunday when northwesterly winds pick up.
On current forecasts, Sydney is tipped to reach 22 degrees on Saturday and 28 degrees for a clear if windy Sunday.
Warmer conditions are on the way, at least for this weekend. Photo: Nick Moir 
Spring's volatile weather will be on display, with large and powerful surf predicted for Saturday. Winds will also gradually strengthen on Sunday, reaching 50km/h as a cold front moves through, Mr Brittain said.
"It's a very cold air mass," he said, adding that it will knock daytime temperatures below the September average of 20 degrees for much of next week before conditions warm again by next weekend.
The cold front is also a dry one, as is the next one, meaning there is unlikely to be much rain relief soon for Sydney's threadbare playing fields.
"There's no really significant rain forecast for the next 14 days," Mr Brittain said.

Dry times
Those dry conditions also extend across much of the country after the driest winter since 2002.
Rainfall was about 43 per cent below the norm, the bureau said. (See chart below.)

NSW was notably dry, with about half the typical rain, or 58.8 millimetres. It was also the state's driest winter in 15 years.
Good rains in June meant only a small pocket of the state's north-east enjoyed above-average rain for the season.
For Sydney, rain fell on 22 days during winter, down from the average of 34 days. Just five of them had more than 10 millimetres, compared with eight such days in a typical winter.
With fewer rain clouds around, the city enjoyed sunnier-than-usual conditions, particularly in July and August.

Cool nights
One consequence of limited cloud cover, though, were cool nights, particularly for inland areas.
Sydney's nights remained milder above average for the city, but dropped below the winter average in western suburbs. Minimum temperatures in Parramatta, for instance, were 0.6 degrees below normal, the bureau said.
Likewise for NSW, central and southern parts of the state recorded below-average nights, often accompanied with frost.
Dr Trewin said Bathurst stood out as one location enduring extreme conditions during winter.
The town posted its highest average maximums for the season, its coldest average nights since 1927 and its driest winter on record.
Nationally, average minimum temperatures were 0.34 degrees above the long-term norm, although the cold was particularly centred over the country's south-east. (See bureau chart below.)

After a slow start, the ski season got a boost from some big dumps of snow. Spencer's Creek had 189 centimetres of snow at the end of August, the most since 2012.
More snow is expected in the coming weeks, Dr Trewin said.
The bureau's forecasts for spring, updated on Thursday, point to a switch in coming months towards more typical rainfall levels.
That news will be welcomed by farmers but also fire authorities, particularly in NSW, that are gearing up for an early and active bushfire season.
"The seasonal outlook for spring rainfall does lean to wetter-than-average conditions in a lot of the south-eastern corner of Australia, particularly along the east coast," Dr Trewin said.
"It does look like we're going to see a bit of a pattern shift," he said, although the change for some regions may not arrive until October.

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