30/10/2017

4 Signs To Watch At COP23

World Resources Institute

UN Climate Change Conference, Bonn, 6-17 November 2017
Two years after the world joined together to forge the Paris Agreement on climate change, representatives from around the globe will convene in Bonn, Germany, on November 6 for the next round of United Nations talks. The summit marks a critical stepping stone for global climate action.
This year’s wave of climate-related natural disasters – hurricanes, floods and wildfires in developed and developing countries alike – drives home the urgency to move full speed ahead at the 23rd Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, known informally as COP23. Increasing public and private investment in the transition to clean energy and transport, in restoring forested areas, and in more sustainable cities demonstrate that significant inroads towards tackling climate change are being made at the national and local level. Countries are also reaffirming their commitment to climate action as a priority – both at home and internationally – including support for the Paris Agreement demonstrated at the G7 and G20 summits and at the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN).

Beethoven statue in Bonn.

Photo by Jeanne Menjoulet/flickr
Steady progress, however, is not enough. Global greenhouse gas emissions need to start coming down quickly, peaking by 2020 and getting to net-zero by 2050, in order to meet the Paris goal of keeping global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and optimally 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels. That means there is a small window of opportunity left to make the low-carbon transition in ways that are economically and technically manageable given the options we have today. COP23 must continue to strengthen an international climate regime that sends the right market signals, reaffirms support for more ambitious and transformational implementation, raises awareness of the growing impacts of climate change, and mobilizes an ever greater number of players to act now before it is too late to avoid the most severe consequences of a changing climate.
Here are four signs to look for at COP23:

1. Tangible and Constructive Progress on Making the Paris Agreement Operational
The implementation guidelines of the Agreement, sometimes referred to as the rulebook, will put the accord fully into motion when finalized at next year’s climate summit in Poland. At Bonn, negotiators need to identify key decision points and the options for resolving them, along with an effective process for crafting clear rules and procedures on a wide range of issues. These include the transparency framework, which includes reporting and review requirements under the Agreement, as well as the ambition mechanism to assess progress and ramp up action every five years.

2. A Strong Foundation for 2018, the First Moment under the Paris Agreement for Countries to Assess Progress and Signal their Readiness to Enhance Action
Enhancing climate action every five years, informed by periodically taking stock of progress and identifying new opportunities for action, is a fundamental premise of the Paris Agreement. COP 23 will set in motion the first of these stocktaking exercises next year during the 2018 facilitative dialogue – now called the Talanoa Dialogue. The dialogue will assess global progress towards meeting the Paris long-term goals, highlight opportunities to step up action, and help spur countries to move forward on enhancing their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2020.
In addition, events next year such as the Global Climate Action Summit in September 2018, a gathering of states, cities, businesses and others, will also recognize the decisive role that these actors play and encourage even greater action. Other upcoming initiatives like the December climate finance summit organized by French President Emmanuel Macron will contribute to launching 2018 as a year of pivotal change, with a new momentum to put us on track to driving the investment and action needed to achieve a climate resilient future.

3. Heightened Attention to Climate Impacts and Vulnerability, and Concrete, Practical Steps to Help Vulnerable Countries and Communities
As the first small island nation to preside over a global climate summit, the government of Fiji has made protecting the vulnerable a strong focus. Negotiators must agree on how to recognize efforts by developing countries to adapt to increasing climate impacts, evaluate effectiveness and mobilize greater support. That includes finance, as well as technology and capacity building. An important step at COP23 would be to formally link the Adaptation Fund, which has focused on building community-level resilience, to the Paris Agreement. Negotiators also need to provide guidance on how to increase the share of adaptation finance as developed countries scale up finance to meet their commitment to mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020. Parties must also do more to address loss and damage from climate impacts, even as they recognize the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.

4. A Growing Wave of Support from Non-state Actors Such as Cities, Businesses and Others
Stakeholders outside the negotiations have emerged as critical partners in the fight against climate change. At COP23, look for businesses, states, cities and others around the world to demonstrate how they are intensifying their efforts, rallying around the Paris Agreement and contributing to national climate goals. The overwhelming support for climate action from within the United States – despite the Trump administration’s efforts to the contrary – is a prime example. States, cities and companies that make up more than half the U.S. economy have declared support for the Paris Agreement. Rather than back away, they are stepping up, and together they have the potential to significantly move U.S. climate action forward.
At climate negotiations last year in Morocco, we witnessed the world’s steely determination to advance climate action despite any obstacles that may arise. COP23 is a time to carry that spirit forward and make concrete progress on structuring the Paris Agreement. Moreover, it is an opportunity to set the stage for 2018, when countries can step up their response to the climate challenge and bequeath a livable world for future generations.

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Why We're Building A Climate Change Game For 12-Year-Olds

The ConversationInez Harker-Schuch | Will J Grant

By the age of 16, most teenagers have already made up their mind about climate change. from www.shutterstock.com 
There is no doubt that we need to teach kids about climate change.
But although the Australian Curriculum embeds climate change into its senior high school program, children are typically aged around 16 before they receive any formal teaching on the topic. We argue that this is too late.
Here’s a possible solution: “CO2peration” is an interactive, online game we developed for children aged 12-14. It teaches climate science in a politics- and emotion-free zone.

CO2peraton - a climate science game for children.

In most countries, the topic of climate change is usually introduced at around the age of 16. Unfortunately, students at this age have largely made up their minds about climate change. Any efforts to teach them about the science may cement those opinions (both for and against) – particularly if it threatens their existing opinion.
This “made up their mind” phenomenon is known as a worldview – and it is the single biggest predictor of an individual’s opinion related to climate change.

Working with 12-year-olds
At the age of around 12, children undergo a rapid developmental change that, over the next 12 years, will take them fully into adulthood.
This change preempts some exciting intellectual developments. It prepares the child for some of the challenges of adulthood - such as building social networks, finding work or becoming financially responsible. It also allows them to start processing complex issues like nuclear energy or social justice.
So around age 12, children’s worldview is still open to change and they can take on board new information in a way that their older selves may not.
Players in CO2peration pursue a science mystery: why is there so much water on Earth? Screen shot from CO2peration. Author provided
Although many communication researchers challenge the notion of “knowledge deficit” whilst communicating with adults (in essence questioning those who emphasise filling gaps in an individual’s understanding), this age group is at a stage when they do need to learn. Why else would they be in school?
Recent research also suggests that we may have dismissed the value of understanding the science of climate change too soon. Specific knowledge relating to climate change – including its physical characteristics, causes and consequences – is an important consideration in opinion development.
Another important element in teaching children about climate science is their emotional well-being: will it alarm them? Climate communicators often use fear appeals and emotional pleas to promote engagement with climate science – often with unintended consequences. Such appeals can polarise an individual’s attitudes, and have been shown to be ineffective or even ethically questionable. How do we get around that?

Focus on science
When we teach children about their gastrointestinal systems, they learn that the stomach exists, the small intestine exists. They accept that these are real without ever having seen these organs inside their own bodies.
Teaching climate science as a series of physical processes and mechanisms establishes a factual foundation - in the same way we learn anatomy. This forms a knowledge foundation that can then, in higher grades, be used to talk about the socio-political aspects – when they are developmentally ready for such discussions.
Eliminating fear appeals gives children an opportunity to be exposed to abstract science without emotional noise. Teaching climate change in this way - as a specific, pure science - may diminish the influence of misinformation they’ll likely encounter at a later age, simply because they’ll understand it better. Research has shown, too, that younger students are less alarmed when learning about climate change than older adolescents.
Starting with a space probe called Messenger, players in CO2peration go on missions to collect samples and data. Screen shot from CO2peration. Author provided
Climate science is quite hard to teach, as textbooks and lectures don’t effectively illustrate the scale and interdisciplinary nature of its features. This is where 3D environments and gaming offer new opportunities.

Teaching in 3D
Although some developers have already identified gaming as a way to explore climate change, none focus on teaching specific climate science.
To fill this gap, we have created a 3D interactive climate science game for 12-year-olds. “CO2peration” turns the player into a particle of sunlight (also known as a photon), and takes them on a journey to find out why we have liquid water at Earth’s surface.
Starting with a space probe called Messenger, players go on fact-finding missions to collect samples and data in order to work out why Earth has a water-rich surface. It’s a scientific mystery that follows some of the pathways that led scientists to realise Earth’s climate is changing. From Mercury to Venus, Earth and Mars, players explore each rocky planet in our Solar System, and experience climate science in an exciting, abstract and empowering way – with no political or social context.
Why is Venus, though further from the sun, hotter than Mercury? Screen shot from CO2peration. Author provided
Players find out why Venus, although further away from the Sun, is hotter than Mercury. They explore, close up, how ice ages occur, and the extraordinary influence of Milankovitch cycles at work (the wobbly, changing orbits of Earth around the Sun). Children build and test 3D greenhouse gas molecules in minuscule infrared activity chambers. They zoom through the layers of Earth’s atmosphere – dodging space junk to discover the role our atmosphere plays in keeping our planet habitable.
Once we have launched the game, the same recruits who helped develop and test the first version of CO2peration (now 13 years old), will be tested again - as well as a new group of 12-year-olds. These tests will use game analytics and player surveys to determine what aspects of our game achieve the learning outcomes, and which areas are the most difficult to understand. We’re also interested to see (from an entertainment perspective) how long and how often players want to play.
Using this feedback, we can improve our game and hopefully create a versatile learning tool to teach children in Australia and the world about climate science.

Note: CO2peration is being tested as part of a PhD at the Australian National University. More information about how to get a copy of the game is available here.

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Queensland Poll To Be Stress Test For Future Of Renewables In Australia

RenewEconomy - 

Queensland Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk
Queenslanders go to the polls in just four weeks – and it seems that there will be more at stake for the renewable energy industry than a now postponed auction of wind and solar and storage projects. It could help decide the future of renewable energy in Australia.
That may seem a big call to make about a state that has only one 20MW solar farm (Barcaldine) to show for its 50 per cent renewable energy target, and which will likely feature the cost of electricity and the future of coal power as one of the principle points of difference.
Queensland has high prices, but it has nothing to do with renewables. The Labor government has had to tell the state owned generators to pull their head in and moderate their business practices, in clear acknowledgement that it is the action of fossil fuel incumbents that are pushing up prices.
But while there are some 2,000MW of wind and solar projects under construction across the state right now, they will not come into play until next year.
And by then, the shape of future investment will be well and truly set, and the fate of another 9,000MW of wind, solar and biomass and a further 6,000MW of storage potential will become clearer.
Queensland is the first of four states that will go to the polls in the next 12 months and three of them – Queensland, South Australia and Victoria – have ambitious renewable energy policies that in the absence of any federal initiative are critical to the future of renewables in Australia.
Queensland has its target of 50 per cent renewables by 2030, Victoria is aiming for 40 per cent by 2025, and South Australia – already at around 50 per cent – has staked its future on the further transition to a decarbonised grid.
The continuation of these policies is seen as crucial in the absence of any federal policy that could provide a signal to build new renewables.
The  renewable energy target – which will result in 23.5 per cent of large scale renewables by 2020 (plus around 4 per cent of rooftop solar) – is nearly met, and the federal government’s new policy, the National Energy Guarantee designed by the Energy Security Board, envisages little or no additions in the following decade, and is being modelled on the assumption that no emission reductions are made beyond 2030.
Hence the dependence on the states.
The two territories also have ambitious policies – but the ACT’s 100 per cent renewable energy target is already contracted, and nothing has been heard from the Northern Territory and its 50 per cent target by 2030 since it commissioned a report earlier this year.
Tasmania, which also goes to the polls in the next year, is near enough to 100 per cent renewables, although it would like to build a Tassie 2.0 pumped hydro scheme to be the “clean energy battery” of the country.
In Western Australia, the new Labor government is slowly removing the shackles on wind and solar imposed by the previous Coalition government, while NSW – despite making positive noises – has no state-based incentives to speak of.
The federal Coalition has defended its new National Energy Guarantee on the basis that it may allow the states to go it alone, although it is not clear to what extent the new reliability obligations will make that easy.
It’s ironic, given that the federal Coalition had branded the state-based Labor targets as “reckless”, but it may not mean a lot if Labor loses power in those states.
In each of these states, the conservative parties remain implacably opposed to any further renewable investment of scale. In Victoria, it voted against the VRET, and in Queensland the LNP  has vowed to build a coal-fired generator in Townsville, even though even the main energy lobby thinks it’s a crazy idea.
Of the states, only the Victoria target is actually legislated, although it was opposed by the LNP.
Queensland has directly supported – through a series of off take agreements and some limited funding – around half of the 2,000MW of solar and wind projects now under construction in the state.
But it has yet to legislate its policy, or provide a solid framework for how the 50 per cent renewable energy target will be achieved, despite commissioning a report last year.
Its recent call for expressions of interest in a tender for 400MW of renewables, including 100MW of storage, attracted more than 110 proposals. But the formal tender will be sidelined pending the election, and if the LNP win the poll, then it won’t go ahead.
The tender underlined the pent-up interest in wind, solar and storage in the state.
The 115 proposals accounted for a total of 9000MW of renewable projects, more than 20 times the capacity sought, and 6000MW of energy storage, including battery storage and several proposals for solar thermal projects of the type built at Crescent Dunes in Nevada and to be built in Port Augusta.
The renewables projects included 2,200MW of wind energy, more than 6,400MW of solar and around 500MW of other renewable energy technologies such as biomass.
The future of the Adani coal project also looms large, although it is difficult to tell the real split between Labor and the LNP on this. The Greens are the only party against Adani, and hope to get three seats. But it is not clear they will win any.
Labor premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has a slim two party preferred lead – 52-48 per cent – over the opposition led by Tim Nicholls, according to recent polls.
But the result will be complicated by the rising popularity of One Nation (up to 30 per cent in some seats), and the return of full preferential voting, new boundaries for many existing seats, four new seats and the fact that it is a single house parliament.
The LNP energy policy page reads as a list of things it hasn’t done – it froze solar tariffs, opposed the carbon price, and has argued against renewable energy incentives. But it does want to build that new coal fired generator in the north. (Listen to this Energy Insiders podcast to hear why that could be a huge white elephant).
“We will make sure Queensland’s energy security is not put at risk so we don’t end up like South Australia with blackouts and industry shutting up shop,” it says.   
The poll date of November 25 means it will be held one day after a COAG meeting due to consider modelling from the Energy Security Board and a possible vote on whether to commission the ESB to do more work on the National Energy Guarantee.
South Australia will go to the polls in March, as does Tasmania, while Victoria heads to the polls in November, 2018.

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In Antarctica, Two Crucial Glaciers Accelerate Toward The Sea

New York Times



Two of the frozen continent’s fastest-moving glaciers are shedding an increasing amount of ice into the Amundsen Sea each year.
The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are among the most critical in the world. They are currently holding back ice that, if melted, would raise the world’s oceans by nearly four feet over centuries, an amount that would put many coastal cities underwater.

Pine Island glacier

Source: Copernicus Sentinel-1 | Delft University of Technology

Glaciers are essentially long rivers of ice. Just as a river collects water that drains from a specific area, Antarctica’s glaciers collect ice from parts of the great ice sheets that cover the continent. The amount of ice that could flow into the Pine Island glacier and then into the sea would eventually raise the world’s sea level by over a foot and a half.
The animation above shows Pine Island glacier flowing into the Amundsen Sea from 2014 to 2017. Twice in that period, the glacier released an iceberg larger than 100 square miles.
The Pine Island’s flow is accelerating rapidly. Its ice shelf, an expanse of ice that floats on water where the glacier meets the sea, has increased its speed by 75 percent from 1973 to 2010.
“This is a result of the warmer waters in front of them,” said Eric Rignot, a climate scientist at the University of California, Irvine, who has done extensive research on polar ice.
“In some relatively colder years, we know the melt rate slowed down and the glaciers slowed down. On warm ocean years, the glacier moves really fast.”
In the 1980s, Pine Island gained about as much ice as it lost every year. Now, the glacier is out of balance.


About 100 miles southwest of Pine Island, Thwaites glacier is also shedding more and more ice into the ocean.
The amount of ice that could flow into it and then into the sea would increase global sea level by more than two feet.

Thwaites glacier

Source: Copernicus Sentinel-1 | French National Center for Scientific Research

Because Thwaites is about 75 miles wide and isn’t confined to a valley the way Pine Island is, there is potential for much larger releases of ice if the glacier’s flow continues to speed up.
“These two glaciers could easily flow two to three times faster — that’s what the models show,” Dr. Rignot said. “If Pine Island’s shelf were to break up, the glacier would respond by speeding up two to three times.”
Thwaites glacier also veered from equilibrium in the late 1980s, but hasn’t been shedding as much ice as Pine Island.



This year’s ice calving events at Pine Island and Thwaites have not caused significant changes in the region, because the shifts have been in areas that did not provide critical support to the glaciers.
The movement of the ice, however, offers scientists a window into how Antarctic ice shelves might respond to rapid changes and how a runaway disintegration of the hundreds of Antarctic glaciers might look.
“There isn’t a glacier in Antarctica that comes close to the ice discharge to Pine Island and Thwaites,” Dr. Rignot said. “They are the largest discharger of ice in the Antarctic right now.”

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