Climate Scientists Warn Time Is Running Out To Prevent Global Environmental Collapse

ABC AM - Michael Edwards

Time is running out to prevent a global environmental collapse — that's the stark warning 15,364 of the world's leading climate scientists have sent out.

The paper depicts a bleak future world ravaged by climate change. (Reuters: Jason Lee)

Key points: 15,364 scientists from 180 countries out their names to the BioScience journal article Paper called for population growth to be limited, and governments to stop only focusing on economic growth However, scientists said it was not too late for governments to take action to prevent it

Scientists from 180 countries, many in the developing world, put their names to the journal article published today in Bioscience, which also predicted temperature rises and unpredictable weather patterns that would cause widespread misery.
But the paper also noted it was not too late for governments to do something about it.
The number is believed to be the largest group of scientists to have ever put their names to a research paper focused on climate change.
One of the key authors of the paper, Bill Laurance, a research professor at James Cook University in Queensland, said this was the first time he had ever seen such a letter get sent out.
The paper focused on a number of issues, including the depletion of oceans, deforestation, endangered species and extinct species numbers, fresh water pollution and urban liveability.
"All kinds of instances of liveability of the planet," he said.

"It's far more than just climate change, although that's certainly a critical part."

The paper has depicted a bleak future world ravaged by climate change, a world characterised by human misery.
It called for population growth to be limited and for governments to stop focusing solely on economic growth.
Professor Laurance said too many governments were still thinking short-term, citing Australia as an example, who he said had moved "backwards quite a lot in the last five to 10 years".
"For instance, Australia jettisoned the carbon tax, that was probably one of the most progressive things — it provided stability for the investment market, it provided incentives for alternative energy schemes and green energy sources, which are very important," he said.
"We're not going to get rid of coal overnight, but it is the dirtiest of all the fossil fuels and it is the one that contributes the most to global warming."

Global C02 emissions on the rise
The papers release coincided with new data showing Global CO2 emissions had risen for the first time in three years.
The Global Carbon Project collated the figures and blamed the increase on a growth in coal-fired electricity generation, as well as Chinese oil and gas consumption.
Local carbon emissions accounted for some of the rise, and scientists such as Frank Jotzo, from the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University, expressed concern Australia would not make its targets under the Paris Agreement.
"The outlook for 2017 is once again for no decline or perhaps more growth in greenhouse emissions — we're not seeing the kind of change that we'll need to see in order to meet the Paris commitments," Professor Jotzo said.

Links

• Thousands of scientists issue bleak ‘second notice’ to humanity
• World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice
• 'Time is running out'
• 1992 World Scientists' Warning to Humanity

How To Save Humanity: 15,000 Scientists Urge Action Before 'Vast Human Misery' Takes Over

Newsweek - Sydney Pereira

More than 15,000 scientists signed a warning letter to humanity. Its namesake? "A Second Notice." These experts are warning humanity for the second time against catastrophic biodiversity loss and widespread misery for humans, in a cautionary message for humans to make major changes.
The open letter, signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries, was published on Monday in BioScience. The massive group of scientists, led by William J. Ripple of Oregon State University, is pleading for humans to cut greenhouse gas emissions, phase out fossil fuels, reduce deforestation, and reverse the trend of collapsing biodiversity.
“Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out,” the authors concluded. “We must recognize, in our day-to-day lives and in our governing institutions, that Earth with all its life is our only home.”

An aerial view of a deforested Amazonian jungle is seen close to Maraba, in Brazil's central state of Para in this May 3, 2009 file photo. Reuters

It is the 25th anniversary since thousands of scientists signed a letter warning humanity back in 1992 in the “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity.” On Monday, scientists are saying humanity has mostly failed at solving the problems that will be likely to lead to “vast human misery,” according to the first letter.
Since 1960, freshwater resources and vertebrate species have decreased by around 25 percent. Marine dead zones have skyrocketed by three-quarters. Carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 62 percent since 1960. The human population has increased by 35 percent and livestock by 20 percent.
“Moreover,” the authors write, “we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.”

Binata Pinata stands on top of a rock holding a fish her husband Kaibakia just caught off Bikeman islet, located off South Tarawa in the central Pacific island nation of Kiribati May 25, 2013. With surrounding sea levels rising, Kiribati President Anote Tong has predicted his country will likely become uninhabitable in 30-60 years because of inundation and contamination of its freshwater supplies. Reuters

The one shining light is the decrease of ozone-depleting chemicals by 68 percent. Earlier this month, the ozone hole was the smallest measured since 1988 (though still 2.5 times the size of the U.S.).
“The rapid global decline in ozone-depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively,” they wrote. “We have also made advancements in reducing extreme poverty and hungry.” Other global successes include: decline in fertility rates, decline in deforestation, and rapid growth in the renewable-energy sector, all of which are happening in certain regions.
Within the doom-and-gloom disastrous future that scientists have predicted in their research, they offered several solutions. Though neither easy nor simple, they could reverse or at least curb humanity's current trajectory.
One solution, likely the most obvious: Phase out fossil fuels and increase green technologies and renewable energy. Plus, divest from fossil fuels altogether. Divestment—which refers to the ending of monetary investments of fossil fuels—would “encourage positive environmental change.”

Protestors with a giant silver baloon which symbolizes carbon emissions stand behind a banner with the message, "Divest. Keep it in the Ground" asking investment funds to move their money out of fossil fuels at the World Climate Change Conference 2015 (COP21) in Le Bourget, near Paris, France, December 2, 2015. Reuters 

Eating more plant-based foods would also curb the impending doom scientists predict, as well as reducing food waste overall. How to do that, they wrote, is through education and better infrastructure.
The letter urges us all to prioritize reserves for the world’s land, marine, freshwater, and aerial habitats—particularly those that are well-funded and well-managed. Maintaining nature’s “ecosystem services” by ending the conversion of forests, grasslands, and other native habitats was another recommendation. Ecosystem services are services that humans can benefit from by letting nature function normally. Those two recommendations above relate to three other recommendations: restoring native plant communities, rewilding regions with native species, and implementing adequate policy to end the poaching crisis.

Fire burns part of an estimated 105 tonnes of ivory and a tonne of rhino horn confiscated from smugglers and poachers at the Nairobi National Park near Nairobi, Kenya, April 30, 2016. Reuters

Reproductive healthcare also made its way into the list of recommendations. Increasing education and voluntary family-planning services—especially where those resources are lacking—could reduce fertility rates. The human population has increased by 35 percent since 1992, the letter said, which adds further stress on Earth’s resources. They advise to estimate a scientifically defensible and sustainable population size for the long term.
The economic structure should address wealth inequalities in order to ensure that prices, taxation, and incentive systems take into account the cost of consumption patterns on the environment. General appreciation of nature, and an increase in nature education for children could help, too.
They ended with a positive message, writing: “We can make great progress for the sake of humanity and the planet on which we depend.”

Links

• Thousands of scientists issue bleak ‘second notice’ to humanity
• World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice
• 'Time is running out'
• 1992 World Scientists' Warning to Humanity

Thousands Of Scientists Issue Bleak ‘Second Notice’ To Humanity

Washington Post - Sarah Kaplan

Planet Earth (NASA)

In late 1992, 1,700 scientists from around the world issued a dire “warning to humanity.” They said humans had pushed Earth's ecosystems to their breaking point and were well on the way to ruining the planet. The letter listed environmental impacts like they were biblical plagues — stratospheric ozone depletion, air and water pollution, the collapse of fisheries and loss of soil productivity, deforestation, species loss and  catastrophic global climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
“If not checked,” wrote the scientists, led by particle physicist and Union of Concerned Scientists co-founder Henry Kendall, “many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know.”
But things were only going to get worse.
To mark the letter's 25th anniversary, researchers have issued a bracing follow-up. In a communique published Monday in the journal BioScience, more than 15,000 scientists from 184 countries assess the world's latest responses to various environmental threats. Once again, they find us sorely wanting.
“Humanity has failed to make sufficient progress in generally solving these foreseen environmental challenges, and alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse,” they write.
This letter, spearheaded by Oregon State University ecologist William Ripple, serves as a “second notice,” the authors say: “Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory.”
Global climate change sits atop the new letter's list of planetary threats. Global average temperatures have risen by more than half a degree Celsius since 1992, and annual carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 62 percent.
But it's far from the only problem people face. Access to fresh water has declined, as has the amount of forestland and the number of wild-caught fish (a marker of the health of global fisheries). The number of ocean dead zones has increased. The human population grew by a whopping 2 billion, while the populations of all other mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fish have declined by nearly 30 percent.
The lone bright spot exists way up in the stratosphere, where the hole in the planet's protective ozone layer has shrunk to its smallest size since 1988. Scientists credit that progress to the phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons — chemicals once used in refrigerators, air conditioners and aerosol cans that trigger reactions in the atmosphere to break down ozone.
“The rapid global decline in ozone depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively,” the letter says.
The authors offer 13 suggestions for reining in our impact on the planet, including establishing nature reserves, reducing food waste, developing green technologies and establishing economic incentives to  shift patterns of consumption.
To this end, Ripple and his colleagues have formed a new organization, the Alliance of World Scientists, aimed at providing a science-based perspective on issues affecting the well-being of people and the planet.
“Scientists are in the business of analyzing data and looking at the long-term consequences,” Ripple said in a release. “Those who signed this second warning aren't just raising a false alarm. They are acknowledging the obvious signs that we are heading down an unsustainable path. We are hoping that our paper will ignite a widespread public debate about the global environment and climate.”

Links

• The Earth's ozone hole is shrinking and is the smallest it has been since 1988
• Fossil fuel emissions will reach an all-time high in 2017, scientists say — dashing hopes of progress
• Trump's top environmental pick says she has 'many questions' about climate change