04/12/2017

How Climate Change Can Spread Respiratory Infection

Medical Journal of Australia - Hugo Wilcken


SCIENTISTS and policymakers worry about the economic havoc that climate change will wreak, thanks to rising sea levels, extreme weather events or desertification. But there’s been less emphasis on the effect it is already having on the spread of infectious diseases across human populations.
This is a subject dear to the heart of leading US respiratory specialist Dean Schraufnagel, a Professor of Medicine at the University of Illinois, Chicago. Professor Schraufnagel was in Australia in November 2017 to give a fascinating talk on respiratory infection and climate change at the plenary session of the Asian Pacific Society of Respirology (APSR) Congress, held in Sydney.
“It’s not a question of whether climate change will affect human health. It already has, by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens,” Professor Schraufnagel told MJA InSight.
“When we change the climate, we also change habitats and bring wildlife, crops, livestock and humans into contact with pathogens to which they may have had less exposure and less immunity,” he says.
As a case in point, Professor Schraufnagel points to an outbreak of respiratory disease caused by hantavirus in Panama. Hantavirus is found in the saliva, urine and faeces of rats, the population of which had increased exponentially due to an episode of warm, rainy weather.
“Climate variation had boosted the rat population, which put them in closer proximity to humans, who then picked up the virus from the rats,” Professor Schraufnagel explains.
“The way that climate change acts on the spread of infectious diseases is very complicated, and can involve the migration of wild animals, livestock or humans, and each time there’s a change in habitat, you come into contact with new vectors and situations that can lead to infection. So, as the environment changes, we’re more likely to come into contact with infectious agents.”
In an example closer to home, an Australian study looked at how fluctuating temperatures — another measure of global climate change — can affect pneumonia incidence. It found a correlation between sharp temperature drops from one day to the next and increased emergency visits for childhood pneumonia.
Fungal infection is another area where climate change can play a significant role in the incidence of respiratory diseases.
“Endemic fungi are found in the soil. There was a well documented case, in California, where there was an outbreak of coccidioidomycosis, which is transmitted by inhaling spores and can’t be transmitted from person to person. The cases developed 2 weeks after a severe dust storm, which released the spores from the soil.”
Professor Schraufnagel says risks will vary from region to region, and some regions will be at greater risk than others.
“Borderline areas will be more affected. So arid areas at risk of desertification, or low-lying areas at risk of flooding might be the ones at most risk of respiratory infection.”
He says one of the challenges of dealing with the effect of climate change on infectious diseases is its very complexity.
“If you have a cyclone or an earthquake, you know what the damage is right away. But with climate change, it’s not so straightforward, which allows for deniers and industry lobbyists. I’m from the US, so I’m particularly hard hit by the election of Donald Trump in this regard. But I’m heartened to see the rest of the world and much of the US are still trying to do something about climate. I think we need to educate the public. Doctors and scientists and the media need to get the message out.”
At the APSR Congress, Professor Schraufnagel also chaired a workshop on another controversial topic: electronic cigarettes and respiratory health. He is of the view that e-cigarettes need a tighter regulation than they’re getting now.
“Nicotine is one of the most addictive substances in use. So, I think you have to be very conservative and I’m quite opposed to these nicotine delivery devices. The exception might be if they could be used to help people stop smoking, but that should be done through regulatory agencies. It should be prescribed medicine, or if not prescribed, at least shown to be safe in clinical trials. If the makers want to claim e-cigarettes are useful for smoking cessation, fine. Just do the trials and see what happens.”
He says there has been an increasing amount of research into the harm e-cigarette vapours can do to the lungs.
“All the potential harms of combustible cigarettes are pretty much present, although in a much smaller degree, in e-cigarettes. People say the flavouring they use is safe because they’re already used in foods, but what’s safe for eating is not necessarily safe for breathing.”
He points to diacetyl, a buttery-flavoured chemical in foods like popcorn, which is safe to eat, but when inhaled by workers in food factories was found to cause a fatal bronchitis.
“There are dozens or even hundreds of flavourings used in e-cigarettes and we just don’t know how safe they are. The harm reduction argument for e-cigarettes is fundamentally faulty, because smoking is one of the most dangerous, toxic things you can do to your lungs. To say it’s better to use e-cigarettes is like saying that getting shot with a 22-calibre gun is better than getting shot with a 35-calibre gun. When actually it’s best not to get shot at all!”

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If Oceans Stopped Absorbing Heat From Climate Change, Life On Land Would Average 122°F

Quartz

Since the 1970s, more than 93% of excess heat captured by greenhouse gases has been absorbed by the oceans. To understand how much heat that is, think of it this way: If the oceans weren’t absorbing it, average global temperatures on land would be far higher—around 122°F, according to researchers on the documentary Chasing Coral. The global average surface temperature right now is 59°F.
A 122°F world, needless to say, would be unlivable. More than 93% of climate change is out of sight and out of mind for most of us land-dwelling humans, but as the oceans continue to onboard all that heat, they’re becoming unlivable themselves.


Ocean temperatures are the highest since record-keeping began, and hundreds of marine species are suffering because of it. Recent back-to-back coral bleaching events—triggered by too-hot sea temperatures—have killed off significant portions (paywall) of the Great Barrier Reef, and a recent UN report warned that the world’s most significant coral reefs could die out completely by the end of the century, if not sooner.
“Warming is projected to exceed the ability of reefs to survive within one to three decades for the majority of the World Heritage sites containing corals reefs,” the report said.
Scientists worry that the warming ocean also risks releasing billions of tons of frozen methane from the thawing seabed. Unlocking that methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, could trigger significant warming here on land.

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One In Six New Cars In The World Will Be Electric By 2025

BloombergOliver Sachgau

  • UBS predicts 16% of cars sold worldwide in 2025 will be EVs
  • Analysts say consumer interest is rising, especially in China


Why Electric Cars Aren't Taking Over Yet

Almost every sixth car sold in the world will be electric by 2025, according to a UBS global autos survey released Tuesday. And if things go the way they have in 2017, those cars are more likely to be emblazoned with a Tesla Inc. logo than BMW AG’s.
By the middle of the next decade, global sales of electric vehicles should hit 16.5 million, analysts led by Patrick Hummel said in the report, a 16 percent increase from the previous estimate. They predict electric vehicles will make up 16 percent of all car sales by then, up from a previous estimate of 14 percent.
“The shift to electric cars will come faster and in a more pronounced way, fueled by the diesel demise in Europe, battery technology advancements and regulation in China and Europe,” Hummel said. Europe will have the highest EV penetration, approaching 30 percent of new cars sold.

Established car manufacturers like BMW and Daimler AG are spending billions in a race to gain market share in the burgeoning electric-car market, hoping their existing scale will help them leapfrog newer companies like Tesla that focus exclusively on electric vehicles.
One of the reasons behind the upgraded forecast is a new dual-credit policy in China that makes electric-vehicle sales and production compulsory, according to the note. Respondents in China were most likely to say they were considering buying an electric car, at 58 percent, while those in Germany were the least likely, at 14 percent. Higher-than-expected EV sales in 2017 also boosted the forecast, the analysts said.
Hummel expects Tesla to benefit the most from the rise in electric vehicles, as the Palo Alto, California-based company had the highest jump in EV-brand credibility in the survey. Munich-based BMW could suffer the most from a Tesla rise, as the company’s 3-series is seen as the closest competitor to Tesla’s Model 3.
“Tesla’s increasing popularity seems directly correlated by the launch of the Model 3, the brand’s first mass-market car. Most of the other brands have lost ground in the current survey,” Hummel said.
Still, Tesla’s rise is not guaranteed, the note said, as premium brands that have yet to release their own electric car, like Volkswagen AG’s Audi and Porsche, are still preferred to Tesla.

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